2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

[Named After Maddux]

If you wanted a "proof of concept" to developing a pitcher with a wildness problem, maybe Riley Thompson? He sported a 6.8 BB/inning in his last season in college. Since with the Cubs, he's halved that.

 

A walk rate like that would make Dillon Maples seem like Bob Tewksbury!

 

Per 9 IP...

 

Ha! Meant BB/9, but there’s games where it felt like Maples did that.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[craig]

Heh heh, "I'll lean to one of the older prospects of the bunch", so he chooses 17-year-old Preciado. :):)

[Bertz]

 

Good News: Davis is all the way up at #41

 

Bad News: No one else made the top 100

 

Good News: Marquez and Preciado are both 50 FB guys, which means they're Top 100 caliber

 

Bad News: Whither Miguel Amaya?

[We Got The Whole 9]

I really want Amaya to fly under that radar and shove it in their asses in a couple years as a Carlos Santana-lite who can actually stay behind the horsefeathering dish.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law's Cubs top 20: https://theathletic.com/2376097/2021/02/17/keith-law-prospect-rankings-cubs/

 

1. Brennen Davis

2. Brailyn Márquez

3. Miguel Amaya

4. Adbert Alzolay

5. Ed Howard

6. Kohl Franklin

7. Ryan Jensen

8. Yohendrick Piñango

9. Riley Thompson

10. Reginald Preciado

11. Chase Strumpf

12. Cole Roederer

13. Chris Clarke

14. Christopher Morel

15. Yovanny Cruz

16. Rafael Morel

17. Michael McAvene

18. Yeison Santana

19. Owen Caissie

20. Ethan Hearn

 

Others of Note: DJ Herz, Ronnier Quintero, Ismael Mena, Justin Nwogu, Burl Carraway

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Good News: Davis is all the way up at #41

 

Bad News: No one else made the top 100

 

Good News: Marquez and Preciado are both 50 FB guys, which means they're Top 100 caliber

 

Bad News: Whither Miguel Amaya?

 

Yeah - shocked Amaya isn't ahead of Márquez.

 

Márquez - 113

Preciado - 133 (literally Eric's last 50 FV guy)

[Hrubes20]

Pinango!

 

I would have been pretty jacked to see Law put a guy like Pinango in his top 10 a few years ago. Not so much anyomore. Law doesn't get near the looks at the DSL/Instructs players as he used to.

 

Still, it's better than nothing. I share the relative optimism for Pinango.

[Post Count Padder]

I really want Amaya to fly under that radar and shove it in their asses in a couple years as a Carlos Santana-lite who can actually stay behind the horsefeathering dish.

Carlos Santana who can stay behind the plate would be incredible.

[JeffH]

I don’t see Ed Howard as a high-upside, tools sort, and instead think he’s a very polished and instinctive defender and hitter with a high floor for a high school draftee.

 

Prospect evaluation is such fun. So difficult.

 

Even in retrospect, this is how I would describe Derek Jeter.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

ZiPS top 100 prospects: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/

 

27. Miguel Amaya

86. Brennen Davis

96. Cory Abbott

[Tim]

ZiPS top 100 prospects: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/

 

27. Miguel Amaya

86. Brennen Davis

96. Cory Abbott

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline top 30 is out: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/cubs/

 

Cristian Hernández is at 4, higher than Ed Howard.

 

Other higher than expected: Piñango at 14, Keegan Thompson at 15, and Brendon Little at 30 (though the latter two have been pitching well at ST so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised).

[JeffH]

I know there's a built-in anti-reliever bias, but, if we have seventeen prospects better than Burl Carraway, I'd say we're in pretty darn good shape.

[CubsWin]

Also also before the Davish trade, the Cubs and Astros were the only organizations in the sport to only have one prospect in their top 30 come from outside the org via trade, waiver pickup, or FA. There's plenty with only two but I'm not a big fan of that isolationist

I wouldn't call that isolationism by fiat or design. Both the Cubs and Astros were in the championship window they'd built and were letting that play out. Hoyer declared that window closed (or rapidly closing) and quickly changed that number of players from 1 to 4, and depending on how this season unfolds, that number could go even higher.

 

It seems to me that was a function of circumstance instead of philosophy.

[CubsWin]

Really only a couple things really really stood out to me on the MLB.com list:

 

- Speed as Hernandez's top tool

I found that interesting too. The 55s across the board (including overall) are the real story for me, though. MLB is known for being generous with their grades, but only Brennen Davis was given that distinction last year. Of course, as Hernandez fills out, his speed will likely decline, but I guess it speaks to his athleticism.

[CubsWin]

MLB Pipeline top 30 is out: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/cubs/

 

Cristian Hernández is at 4, higher than Ed Howard.

 

Other higher than expected: Piñango at 14, Keegan Thompson at 15, and Brendon Little at 30 (though the latter two have been pitching well at ST so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised).

The Brendon Little being a starter train may have left the station, but man, this year is going to be interesting when it comes to Cubs starting pitching prospects.

 

Keegan Thompson has surprised in spring training thus far. Both he and Abbott should have a chance to show what they can do in big league games this year with reason to think they might do well. Marquez has development left. Can he gain the refinement and consistency the Cubs are looking for? The 2019 trio of Jensen, McAvene and Clarke have generated some good reports this off-season. The 2018 youngsters of Franklin and Gallardo could take big steps forward. Further down the line, we should learn a lot about guys like DJ Herz, Benjamin Rodriguez, Yovanny Cruz and Koen Moreno.

 

The entire narrative of the Cubs ability to draft and develop starting pitching has a chance to be re-written this year.

[CubsWin]

They are some interesting stories to follow on the relief side as well.

 

The aforementioned Brendon Little could be a completely different pitcher out of the pen. Reports are that another formerly-softish-tossing left, Bryan Hudson, has seen a jump in his velocity recently. We'll finally get a look at Burl Carraway. Ethan Roberts has been getting some reports of steps forward. Manny Rodriguez is back healthy and throwing upper 90s again. Hunter Bigge has got that kind of velo as well.

 

And then there's the wild cards. Is Luke Little a pitcher or a driveline freak? How good is Max Bain? Is Ben Leeper worthy of the mentions he's been getting from inside the org? Can Ben Hecht and Ryan Lawlor continue to strike guys out at the upper levels at the same rate as they did in 2019? And, last but certainly not least, the eternal question, can Jose Albertos stay healthy and throw strikes?

 

Man... I need a minor league season bad.

[Post Count Padder]

Are they that low on Amaya and Alzolay? That seems like they're trying to be different for the sake of it.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

 

This is great. Nice to see a national outlet back up something we discussed here earlier in the winter.

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if the leap in the rankings comes pretty fast. The Cubs have talent, while they get fairly dinged for lack of proximity. But Tennessee's lineup is going to have Davis and Amaya for sure, and probably Morel and Strumpf. The rotation will have Marquez, a no longer a joke Brendon Little, and possibly Riley Thompson. Burl Carraway is the rare relief prospect who gets national attention. Strong performances out of that group would change the story very quickly.

[Named After Maddux]

 

Curveball (individual)

1. 70: Bryan Abreu, Astros

2. 65: Burl Carraway, Cubs; Chris Clarke, Cubs

3. 60: 61 players tied

 

Nice

 

Very good to see. It also makes it even more encouraging that DJ Herz learned his curveball from Chris Clarke. No guarantee it turns into a 65 grade, but not a bad guy to learn from.

[Hrubes20]

 

Curveball (individual)

1. 70: Bryan Abreu, Astros

2. 65: Burl Carraway, Cubs; Chris Clarke, Cubs

3. 60: 61 players tied

 

Nice

 

That's the highest I've seen Clarke's curve graded. Good stuff.

 

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article.php?id=55961

 

I don't subscribe so I can't see the full thing, but that lookd like a fun off script list. I like that the the top 10 basically tells pitchers to buzz off outside of Marquez, sneaks in Quintero for the top 10, and takes some big swings a year with no MiL season

 

The top 10:

 

Davis

Hernandez

Howard

Marquez

Preciado

Nwogu

Santana

R. Morel

Mena

Quintero

 

Jensen isn't even in their top 19, unless I spaced it. Seems to be the forgotten man in the system.

[CubsWin]

 

Curveball (individual)

1. 70: Bryan Abreu, Astros

2. 65: Burl Carraway, Cubs; Chris Clarke, Cubs

3. 60: 61 players tied

 

Nice

 

That's the highest I've seen Clarke's curve graded. Good stuff.

 

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article.php?id=55961

 

I don't subscribe so I can't see the full thing, but that lookd like a fun off script list. I like that the the top 10 basically tells pitchers to buzz off outside of Marquez, sneaks in Quintero for the top 10, and takes some big swings a year with no MiL season

 

The top 10:

 

Davis

Hernandez

Howard

Marquez

Preciado

Nwogu

Santana

R. Morel

Mena

Quintero

 

Jensen isn't even in their top 19, unless I spaced it. Seems to be the forgotten man in the system.

Not to take anything away from Clarke's curveball, it's clearly very good, but MLB.com is known for being generous with their 20/80 grades, just fyi.

 

And Rotowire is typically a fantasy sports site. I don't know the exact context of the quoted top ten list, but it seems to be almost exclusively based on upside and thus would more aptly apply to minor leaguers you may want to draft and stash in a dynasty fantasy baseball league...

[Hrubes20]

Not to take anything away from Clarke's curveball, it's clearly very good, but MLB.com is known for being generous with their 20/80 grades, just fyi.

 

And Rotowire is typically a fantasy sports site. I don't know the exact context of the quoted top ten list, but it seems to be almost exclusively based on upside and thus would more aptly apply to minor leaguers you may want to draft and stash in a dynasty fantasy baseball league...

 

Fair point about Rotowire.

 

But it isn’t the 65 grade on Clarke’s curve that necessarily piqued my interest so much, but rather that they feel his curve is tied for 2nd best in the minors. That’s fun stuff.