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Week 4: Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago BEARS (now with national TV coverage @ 3:25 CST)

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raw Myrtle Beach Pelicans

raw

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Matt Nagy's Bears continue to master September and will finish the 1st month of the season at 9-2 in the last 3 seasons. This time, they actually won a season opener and sit atop the NFL at 3-0 just like we all expected.

 

Thru 3 games, we still don't know for sure what we have in Soldier Field. The team has played a bad half followed by a great half, then a great half followed by a bad half. The defense goes back and forth from looking like a front seven on it's last leg to a championship caliber unit. The offense goes from struggling to find WRs, to finding WRs who then drop or get the ball taken away from them, then to an unstoppable force.

 

On the positive side, the Bears scored offensive 3 TDs in a game only 5 times in 2019 but have scored 3 times on offense in a quarter twice already this season and from 2 different QBs. The defensive numbers overall are pretty decent, despite some frustration at times. Last week's performance is especially impressive when you realize that the Falcons got 14 of their points on bogus roughing the passer calls. First one negated a fumble, second a 3 and out, both led to drive extensions ending in a TD.

 

The Colts bring in a very well coached team, that quietly has the league's #1 defensive unit. DeForest Buckner has been a huge addition to their DL. Their LB crew is great. Xavier Rhodes has had a resurgence at CB. Offensively, Reich has really reigned in the oft-erratic, Philip Rivers the last couple weeks. Going with a lot of short passes to limit Rivers' mistakes and time with the ball in his hands after 2 picks in his Colts debut. They aren't running the ball very well right now, but that hasn't meant much against the Bears D so far.

 

Should be another close game. The Colts are clearly better than the Lions, Giants, and Falcons. But they did lose the opener to the Jags. I expect a lower scoring game that Weeks 1 and 2 as both teams have good defenses that kind of matchup well against the other offense. May be similar to the Bears/Chargers game last year, except with more competent QB play on the Bears side.

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Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

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Colts are somehow the #1 team in the NFL by DVOA, but I believe that's not schedule adjusted yet so their 36-7 pantsing of the Jets is being treated like a real accomplishment.

 

Colts will be comfortably favored, and should be, but this is a winnable game.

bukie All-Star

bukie

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Colts are somehow the #1 team in the NFL by DVOA, but I believe that's not schedule adjusted yet so their 36-7 pantsing of the Jets is being treated like a real accomplishment.

 

Colts will be comfortably favored, and should be, but this is a winnable game.

It's schedule adjusted, but DVOA is super volatile 3 weeks into the season just because of the lack of overall data. They do an adjustment based on preseason team expectations that fades over time (by week 8), and by that measure (DAVE) Indy is 5th behind KC, New Orleans, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. However, they are still legit, and the defense is super legit, so we'll see how Foles does against a real defense.

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

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Colts are somehow the #1 team in the NFL by DVOA, but I believe that's not schedule adjusted yet so their 36-7 pantsing of the Jets is being treated like a real accomplishment.

 

Colts will be comfortably favored, and should be, but this is a winnable game.

 

Colts -2.5, just in time for the Chicago meatheads to go all in after their happiest day of the year (starting QB getting replaced)

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

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Colts are somehow the #1 team in the NFL by DVOA, but I believe that's not schedule adjusted yet so their 36-7 pantsing of the Jets is being treated like a real accomplishment.

 

Colts will be comfortably favored, and should be, but this is a winnable game.

 

The NFL standings are treating the Bears' first three weeks as real accomplishments, so it balances out.

David GOAT

David

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PFF ...loves!? the 2020 Bears?

 

 

Weird. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders has the Bears as the 5th worst 3-0 team in terms of DVOA since 1985 (overall ranked 17th in the league)

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-3-dvoa-ratings

 

PFF subjectively grades each play based on what (they think) each guy's job is, and FO is pure numbers and algorithms, as i understand it, so i wouldn't expect them to necessarily line up (if at all).

 

that said, i don't really look at DVOA seriously until at least 6 or 7 weeks in.

 

THAT said, i think FO is closer to the mark than PFF on these Bears, but we'll see.

raw Myrtle Beach Pelicans

raw

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PFF ...loves!? the 2020 Bears?

 

 

Weird. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders has the Bears as the 5th worst 3-0 team in terms of DVOA since 1985 (overall ranked 17th in the league)

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-3-dvoa-ratings

 

PFF subjectively grades each play based on what (they think) each guy's job is, and FO is pure numbers and algorithms, as i understand it, so i wouldn't expect them to necessarily line up (if at all).

 

that said, i don't really look at DVOA seriously until at least 6 or 7 weeks in.

 

THAT said, i think FO is closer to the mark than PFF on these Bears, but we'll see.

 

Somehow, I think both are right....if that makes any sense. The offensive numbers make sense. Had 2 pretty good weeks running the ball. Last week, wasn't as good, but when you factor in Cohen and Trubisky getting 66 yards on 3 carries, overall it's not terrible. Pass D is understandably bottom 1/3. Defensively, the pass defense has been wonderful outside of a few plays against soft defense. Run D is surprisingly high, but teams haven't really run all that much against the Bears. Teams have thrown the ball 62% of the time against the Bears D. And it's been mostly big plays with some short stops mixed in. The tackling has also been pretty good, the big runs have been virtually untouched most of the way.

 

Teams are always going to have crazy numbers early in the year, and especially when they win in the fashion that the Bears have. They haven't been always good, but they've been really good when they had to be which is winning football, but it's also how you end up middle of the road in DVOA.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

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Bears play next Thursday. 3 hours doesn’t make a big difference but I feel like every hour counts with such a short turnaround.
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

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Why would Bray be on the active roster? Either they’ve developed a Taysom Hill package for Mitch and need a 3rd QB in case he gets hurt, or Mitch might get traded. I’d guess the former, Pace probably still has visions of a future where Foles gets hurt and Mitch comes in heroically and plays like the number 2 pick of the draft

 

I guess it’s also possible they have an expendable spot on the active roster and the Bears are sick of protecting him on the practice squad every week. But again it’s Bray.

WrigleyField 22 Knoxville Smokies

WrigleyField 22

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Why would Bray be on the active roster? Either they’ve developed a Taysom Hill package for Mitch and need a 3rd QB in case he gets hurt, or Mitch might get traded. I’d guess the former, Pace probably still has visions of a future where Foles gets hurt and Mitch comes in heroically and plays like the number 2 pick of the draft

 

I guess it’s also possible they have an expendable spot on the active roster and the Bears are sick of protecting him on the practice squad every week. But again it’s Bray.

Its hard to imagine them getting almost anything for Trubisky. And I'm not sure they even save any cap space with a trade (though would save some cash).

 

So we'll see?

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

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Why would Bray be on the active roster? Either they’ve developed a Taysom Hill package for Mitch and need a 3rd QB in case he gets hurt, or Mitch might get traded. I’d guess the former, Pace probably still has visions of a future where Foles gets hurt and Mitch comes in heroically and plays like the number 2 pick of the draft

 

I guess it’s also possible they have an expendable spot on the active roster and the Bears are sick of protecting him on the practice squad every week. But again it’s Bray.

Its hard to imagine them getting almost anything for Trubisky. And I'm not sure they even save any cap space with a trade (though would save some cash).

 

So we'll see?

 

It would have to be a team without any potential long term QB option and willing to give up like a 4th to see if different coaching can give him a boost. There’s really not any teams like this. Maybe Denver if they aren’t sold on Lock and/or he’s out for the year.

 

Maybe Belichick wants to take on the ultimate challenge and try to revive Mitch just in case Newton can’t come back anytime soon.

 

Btw most of these suggestions are half in jest. It doesn’t make sense for any team to waste resources on bringing in Mitch midseason

WrigleyField 22 Knoxville Smokies

WrigleyField 22

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Why would Bray be on the active roster? Either they’ve developed a Taysom Hill package for Mitch and need a 3rd QB in case he gets hurt, or Mitch might get traded. I’d guess the former, Pace probably still has visions of a future where Foles gets hurt and Mitch comes in heroically and plays like the number 2 pick of the draft

 

I guess it’s also possible they have an expendable spot on the active roster and the Bears are sick of protecting him on the practice squad every week. But again it’s Bray.

Its hard to imagine them getting almost anything for Trubisky. And I'm not sure they even save any cap space with a trade (though would save some cash).

 

So we'll see?

 

It would have to be a team without any potential long term QB option and willing to give up like a 4th to see if different coaching can give him a boost. There’s really not any teams like this. Maybe Denver if they aren’t sold on Lock and/or he’s out for the year.

 

Maybe Belichick wants to take on the ultimate challenge and try to revive Mitch just in case Newton can’t come back anytime soon.

 

Btw most of these suggestions are half in jest. It doesn’t make sense for any team to waste resources on bringing in Mitch midseason

Yea NE is the only team I thought of and it would be like a 2-3 week replacement except the off chance that Cam doesn't recover. Is Belicheck actually dumb enough to give up actual value for that? Like a 2023 conditional 7th maybe?

BigbadB First Round Pick

BigbadB

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Or maybe they feel that Trubisky is so gone at this point, Bray would be a better backup option to Trubisky. I can't imagine that either, because people would lose their minds if they brought Bray in instead of Trubisky if Foles had to come out for some reason. It is trade season, so maybe they are shopping for anyone everyone knowing that Trubisky's only real chance is to get a fresh start somewhere else.

 

Bray will likely just be an inactive each Sunday.

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