Cubs Over/Under

[cubweiser03]

What Ticket do you buy? The over or under?

[Tim]

What Ticket do you buy? The over or under?

Easy over for me

[Bertz]

I am expecting over, even if we assume a KB trade. The chances of the bottom falling out of this team are much higher than they have been in a while, but my median expectation is still high 80's without KB and low 90's with.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Damn that O/U seems about right, but I'll say 'Over' with the hope the big 4 stays healthy, as does Yu and the bullpen sorts itself out quickly.

[Cubswin11]

Over pretty easily at that number for me.

[jersey cubs fan]

I haven't seen one that low yet

[Cubswin11]

What book or site is offering this number, btw? I’ve only seen 88 and 88.5.

[Derwood]

I haven't seen one that low yet

 

Someone (USA Today??) pegged them at 82 wins and 4th place

[jersey cubs fan]

I haven't seen one that low yet

 

Someone (USA Today??) pegged them at 82 wins and 4th place

I mean I haven't seen a betting line that low, I'm sure individuals will predict lower. That's a different story.

[Brian]

I'm guessing the 84 mark is because that's what they got last year.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm going under because my negative vote alone will put them about 13 over that.

[Sammy Sofa]

86 wins feels about right.

[Cubswin11]

86 wins feels about right.

Yup. I think as of today between the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds someone finishes in the 76-80 range, 2 finish in the 84-87 range and 1 gets to 90+. Whatever way you want to order the 4 I think has a fair argument. Stacking up wins vs the Pirates is going to be important.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

86 wins feels about right.

Yup. I think as of today between the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds someone finishes in the 76-80 range, 2 finish in the 84-87 range and 1 gets to 90+. Whatever way you want to order the 4 I think has a fair argument. Stacking up wins vs the Pirates is going to be important.

 

To put a finer point on it, I would go as far to say that the Reds and Brewers will both be in the 78-82 range, and one of the Cubs/Cards will be 85-88 and the other will be 90+. I'm probably unjustifiably skeptical of both the Reds and Brewers though.

[Cubswin11]

86 wins feels about right.

Yup. I think as of today between the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds someone finishes in the 76-80 range, 2 finish in the 84-87 range and 1 gets to 90+. Whatever way you want to order the 4 I think has a fair argument. Stacking up wins vs the Pirates is going to be important.

 

To put a finer point on it, I would go as far to say that the Reds and Brewers will both be in the 78-82 range, and one of the Cubs/Cards will be 85-88 and the other will be 90+. I'm probably unjustifiably skeptical of both the Reds and Brewers though.

I think that’s a fine critique. I’m honestly as skeptical on the Cardinals as I am the Reds and Brewers. I think the sub 80 win team(s) comes from those 3.

[soccer10k]

I haven't seen one that low yet

 

Someone (USA Today??) pegged them at 82 wins and 4th place

I mean I haven't seen a betting line that low, I'm sure individuals will predict lower. That's a different story.

 

Bovada was 85.5 earlier today. They took the over unders down now though, I assume because of the Betts trade.

[cubweiser03]

Westgate and Bookmaker have lines at 84.5

Im gonna smash the over, probably also do an under on the Cards.

Darvish at 30-1 cy young I think is a good number too. His 2nd half turnaround was amazing, don’t think that was a fluke.

I always do a Cubs World Series bet, that’s my ‘homer’ bet. Hey 2016 was a good $ win! I won’t be hitting that as hard as the O/U Win total

[CubinNY]

86 wins feels about right.

Yup. I think as of today between the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and Reds someone finishes in the 76-80 range, 2 finish in the 84-87 range and 1 gets to 90+. Whatever way you want to order the 4 I think has a fair argument. Stacking up wins vs the Pirates is going to be important.

 

To put a finer point on it, I would go as far to say that the Reds and Brewers will both be in the 78-82 range, and one of the Cubs/Cards will be 85-88 and the other will be 90+. I'm probably unjustifiably skeptical of both the Reds and Brewers though.

I'm skeptical of the Cardinals and Brewers (especially the Brewers now that they can't relay signals at home games). I think the Reds are going to win the division. I think the Cubs will either push 90 wins or be a disaster by the trade deadline.

[Bull]

Michael Cerami makes a solid point on Cubs talk podcast (Jeff Nelson filling in for Kaplan). He says the Cubs will either win less than 75 or more than 95. If they're in the middle of the pack they will be sellers to get under the tax cap and position them to spend 2021. We all know the impact of three-peat luxury tax offense.

 

I'm not sure I agree with him in the final analysis. I think the guys that step in for Heyward, Chatwood, Willy or even Bryant will not be bad enough to turn an 85 win team into a 75 win team over the last two months of the season. But if you adjust that to either over 90 wins or under 80, I think he has a point.

[jersey cubs fan]

Michael Cerami makes a solid point on Cubs talk podcast (Jeff Nelson filling in for Kaplan). He says the Cubs will either win less than 75 or more than 95. If they're in the middle of the pack they will be sellers to get under the tax cap and position them to spend 2021. We all know the impact of three-peat luxury tax offense.

 

I'm not sure I agree with him in the final analysis. I think the guys that step in for Heyward, Chatwood, Willy or even Bryant will not be bad enough to turn an 85 win team into a 75 win team over the last two months of the season. But if you adjust that to either over 90 wins or under 80, I think he has a point.

Also Quintana. Once they get out of their top 5 rotation spots, they'll be throwing out some real stinkers who are going to get lit up.

 

But I don't see 95 wins on the upside.

[sneakypower]

easy over

[Bote McBoteface]

I’d take the over if it was set at 92.

[CubinNY]

I'm now going with the under on 90 wins.