2020 roster

[Sammy Sofa]

I think you're actually talking about the disease.

[Brian]

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[Cubswin11]

Good to hear a notional guy somewhat confirm he’s available. I think he’s my #1 target of reasonably available/realistic guys via trade or FA that we also could afford (money or player capital) to get. Anyone past the Nico/Amaya/Davis/Marquez line of prospects would be available to get him, for me on top of the ML trade pieces we have like Happ, Willy, Vic, etc.

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

https://theathletic.com/1375584/2019/11/14/young-st-nick-castellanos-wont-be-stopping-on-the-north-side-but-keeping-kyle-schwarber-could-be-a-gift/?source=shared-article

 

The thrust of the article:

 

- The Cubs aren't likely to go with a Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos outfield as a long term solution, mostly for defensive reasons

- Heyward isn't tradeable

- The Cubs see Schwarber as similar to Castellanos and believe in his 2nd half turnaround(it elaborates on Schwarber's mental adjustment)

 

As a result, the conclusion is they're not likely to bring Castellanos back, and instead are focusing more on CF.

 

“That’s certainly an area where we’re looking to improve our performance,” Epstein said. “Whether it’s through players existing on the roster or from outside. There is a corresponding impact, especially defensively. Who you have playing center affects the other two outfielders a little bit and it affects your pitching staff. We’re also looking to reshape our offense a little bit, so center field will have an impact on that. Certainly it’s an area of need and we’re aware of it. There’s some players on the roster as it stands, who, with some adjustments, can perform better and help be part of the solution.”

 

It also mentions that the FO believes in Almora enough to tender him and not try to dump him for nothing, and also that it's unlikely that Happ enters the 2020 CF race without real competition.

[Cubswin11]

https://theathletic.com/1375584/2019/11/14/young-st-nick-castellanos-wont-be-stopping-on-the-north-side-but-keeping-kyle-schwarber-could-be-a-gift/?source=shared-article

 

The thrust of the article:

 

- The Cubs aren't likely to go with a Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos outfield as a long term solution, mostly for defensive reasons

- Heyward isn't tradeable

- The Cubs see Schwarber as similar to Castellanos and believe in his 2nd half turnaround(it elaborates on Schwarber's mental adjustment)

 

As a result, the conclusion is they're not likely to bring Castellanos back, and instead are focusing more on CF.

 

“That’s certainly an area where we’re looking to improve our performance,” Epstein said. “Whether it’s through players existing on the roster or from outside. There is a corresponding impact, especially defensively. Who you have playing center affects the other two outfielders a little bit and it affects your pitching staff. We’re also looking to reshape our offense a little bit, so center field will have an impact on that. Certainly it’s an area of need and we’re aware of it. There’s some players on the roster as it stands, who, with some adjustments, can perform better and help be part of the solution.”

 

It also mentions that the FO believes in Almora enough to tender him and not try to dump him for nothing, and also that it's unlikely that Happ enters the 2020 CF race without real competition.

[ConstableRabbit]

thrust

[jersey cubs fan]

It also mentions that the FO believes in Almora enough to tender him

 

That's insane for a team on a budget.

[Cubswin11]

Lamet is becoming more intriguing than Gray to me in a potential Willy trade

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/11/14/20957997/san-diego-padres-stephen-strasburg-chris-paddack-dinelson-lamet-sale-bauer-hill-bumgarner

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lamet is becoming more intriguing than Gray to me in a potential Willy trade

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/11/14/20957997/san-diego-padres-stephen-strasburg-chris-paddack-dinelson-lamet-sale-bauer-hill-bumgarner

 

 

As a thought exercise, Contreras, Quintana, and a few million for Lamet, Margot, Hedges, and Munoz gets a substantial amount of shopping done for one deal. The Padres get more rotation certainty on top of a big catcher upgrade without giving up much 2019 productivity or financial flexibility to make further rotation upgrades. The Cubs could then get another live arm but question-mark SP(I mentioned Bote for Yonny Chirinos a few pages back) to go with a volume approach for the rotation(and pen), plus they'd have most all their powder dry to make a significant move elsewhere even though they've mostly covered the gaping holes at that point(2B would be the biggest question mark). You could even realistically consider if the trade cost were low enough to try and shake loose Betts or Lindor, since you've at least made some attempt to paper over the other concerns.

[Cubswin11]

Lamet is becoming more intriguing than Gray to me in a potential Willy trade

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/11/14/20957997/san-diego-padres-stephen-strasburg-chris-paddack-dinelson-lamet-sale-bauer-hill-bumgarner

 

 

As a thought exercise, Contreras, Quintana, and a few million for Lamet, Margot, Hedges, and Munoz gets a substantial amount of shopping done for one deal. The Padres get more rotation certainty on top of a big catcher upgrade without giving up much 2019 productivity or financial flexibility to make further rotation upgrades. The Cubs could then get another live arm but question-mark SP(I mentioned Bote for Yonny Chirinos a few pages back) to go with a volume approach for the rotation(and pen), plus they'd have most all their powder dry to make a significant move elsewhere even though they've mostly covered the gaping holes at that point(2B would be the biggest question mark). You could even realistically consider if the trade cost were low enough to try and shake loose Betts or Lindor, since you've at least made some attempt to paper over the other concerns.

Sign me up

[Tryptamine]

What am I missing. Hedges is strong defensively but can't hit. Margot is strong defensively but can't hit. Munoz is enticing, but I think there's a very high chance Lamet,who only really throws 2 pitches, winds up a reliever as well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What am I missing. Hedges is strong defensively but can't hit. Margot is strong defensively but can't hit. Munoz is enticing, but I think there's a very high chance Lamet,who only really throws 2 pitches, winds up a reliever as well.

 

Hedges and Margot you're banking on them hitting better with a different org and getting out of Petco/NL West. I'm more bullish on Margot making that leap given his pedigree and age, but Hedges doesn't have to go far to make himself worthwhile given just how good he is defensively. They both complement existing players(Happ & the LH corner OFs, Caratini) well for platoon/timeshare/PH purposes too. That said, I'm not all that attached to Hedges so if it's not him and something else you find interesting, that's fine with me.

 

Lamet has 2.7 fWAR in 35 MLB starts, the questions are if he can stay healthy, and if he can go a bit deeper in games. If either were answered he wouldn't be available, so you take the chance that one happens and you essentially have a new Quintana in value, a late bloomer SP with lots of team control providing ~3 wins/year. If both happen he's the new Arrieta, but it is possible that none of them do.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Mooney with some mildly interesting miscellany: https://theathletic.com/1379851/2019/11/15/on-the-cubs-radar-mike-napoli-shogo-akiyama-brandon-morrow/

 

- Napoli was under consideration to be the bench coach last year (they went with Loretta instead)

- The team definitely has Shogo on their radar, Mooney specifically cited his on-base ability and that he's a 'two-way' player, which might indicate there's less worry about him sticking in CF

- Rehashing the Morrow story, with the implication that Morrow feels he owes the Cubs for not being more available

[Bertz]

Mooney with some mildly interesting miscellany: https://theathletic.com/1379851/2019/11/15/on-the-cubs-radar-mike-napoli-shogo-akiyama-brandon-morrow/

 

- Napoli was under consideration to be the bench coach last year (they went with Loretta instead)

- The team definitely has Shogo on their radar, Mooney specifically cited his on-base ability and that he's a 'two-way' player, which might indicate there's less worry about him sticking in CF

- Rehashing the Morrow story, with the implication that Morrow feels he owes the Cubs for not being more available

 

Mooney with an article of actual substance, that's a fun change of pace.

 

I like the Akiyama fit a lot. A lot of the negative stuff about his defense has mentioned how much it has declined rather than saying it's outright bad. So maybe it's a Lorenzo Cain situation where he's gone from incredible to merely pretty good?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Mooney with some mildly interesting miscellany: https://theathletic.com/1379851/2019/11/15/on-the-cubs-radar-mike-napoli-shogo-akiyama-brandon-morrow/

 

- Napoli was under consideration to be the bench coach last year (they went with Loretta instead)

- The team definitely has Shogo on their radar, Mooney specifically cited his on-base ability and that he's a 'two-way' player, which might indicate there's less worry about him sticking in CF

- Rehashing the Morrow story, with the implication that Morrow feels he owes the Cubs for not being more available

 

Mooney with an article of actual substance, that's a fun change of pace.

 

I like the Akiyama fit a lot. A lot of the negative stuff about his defense has mentioned how much it has declined rather than saying it's outright bad. So maybe it's a Lorenzo Cain situation where he's gone from incredible to merely pretty good?

 

If I'm being an optimist, the only noteworthy criticism of his defense I can recall came from a pitcher in that league but not on his team, so I have my doubts about how accurate a source it is.

[Cubswin11]

Akiyama seems like a great fit for the roster, but being LH it would really become important to find a RH bat who can handle CF and it better not be horsefeathering Almora.

 

Also I wonder if him and Yu know each other or played together ever, could help in the recruiting/selling. Obviously Yu has been over here for a while now but they’re about the same age so maybe they know each other from their teen/early 20 years playing baseball in Japan or even WBC stuff.

[Cubswin11]

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[UK]

Gray - yes.

 

Akiyama - no.

[Cubswin11]

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[Sammy Sofa]

[Sammy Sofa]

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[CyHawk_Cub]

FFS

 

 

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah if we don't roster Mekkes, someone like the Marlins or Orioles will definitely take him. I do believe he could be a good relief option as early as this season. And Giambrone would definitely get taken as well if he isn't rostered.

 

 

Also I can see why Theo is attached to Almora, he's a cheap CF option and was also his first first rounder with us. At the same time, he cratered last year and if you wanna compete, he can't get 300 at bats next season. Best bet would be to try and find a trade partner. Send him to a bad team looking for reclamation projects/cheap starters and get a lottery ticket and some salary relief in return.

[Bertz]

Yeah if we don't roster Mekkes, someone like the Marlins or Orioles will definitely take him. I do believe he could be a good relief option as early as this season. And Giambrone would definitely get taken as well if he isn't rostered.

 

 

Also I can see why Theo is attached to Almora, he's a cheap CF option and was also his first first rounder with us. At the same time, he cratered last year and if you wanna compete, he can't get 300 at bats next season. Best bet would be to try and find a trade partner. Send him to a bad team looking for reclamation projects/cheap starters and get a lottery ticket and some salary relief in return.

 

The team has probably ~7 spots they can use to protect guys, so the decision on Mekkes will be tight. Based on this article from Arizona Phil a couple weeks ago, and subsequent decisions on Q, Graveman, and Webster, I believe we're at 31 spots filled right now

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/10062019/projected-cubs-post-2019-world-series-roster

 

Russell's a safe bet to go, which brings us to 30. I'd imagine the team adds 3 net new guys to the roster over the offseason (1 pitcher and 2 position players). There's likely to be more than that, but anything additional would have an offsetting move off the roster. That means 7 guys get protected:

 

- Amaya is a 100% lock

- Rea and Miller seem very likely, I'd say ~90%

- Johnny Pereda seems likely to take the Taylor Davis emergency catcher role. PJ Higgins has a shot as a more offensive minded alternative

- Zack Short and Trent Giambrone both seem unlikely but not ridiculously so

- Mekkes, Minch, and Swarmer are the reliever options under consideration, I imagine in that order

- They may also want to leave a spot open to play the roster crunch game, like with Ian Clarkin last winter

 

So with all that said, I'd guess they keep him, but it's probably ~60/40. There may also only be 6 spots to play with. I do not expect both Mills and Chatwood to make it to ST. If the plan is to keep both, that's one fewer spot to play with. However, we could also add a spot by dumping Almora.

 

Speaking of Almora, I would keep him. It seems given the market that we're not ultimately going to bring in a slam dunk everyday guy for CF. We're likely going to head into the season with Happ and TBD fighting for the role, with Heyward and Nico as depth options. Given that, I think we want to have as many rolls of the dice as possible, and having Almora hanging out at Iowa would be prudent. The Iowa outfield is a travesty anyway so it's not like he's blocking anyone. Unless his ~2m is really the difference in making another move there's no reason not to keep him and hope that putting him on the Ian Happ plan can't get him back to at least being a useful bench guy.

[Post Count Padder]

And saying that, it certainly seems like we're making a couple minor trades in the next two weeks to lessen that 40 man crunch. So Mekkes and Giambrone or similar players on the cusp could be sent away for lottery tickets.