2019 Bold Prediction Time

[The_Achiever]

4th place at best

 

Clubhouse falls apart similar to 2004 (if i'm remembering correctly) and all our players start hating each other/the front office

 

NSBB shuts down because what's the point (at the very least i think Tim can delete the Transactions forum right now because it's not being used)

2009 was kinda like that too

 

It definitely has that feel, like things are on the downslope.

 

84 wins.

[David]

4th place at best

 

Clubhouse falls apart similar to 2004 (if i'm remembering correctly) and all our players start hating each other/the front office

 

NSBB shuts down because what's the point (at the very least i think Tim can delete the Transactions forum right now because it's not being used)

2009 was kinda like that too

 

It definitely has that feel, like things are on the downslope.

 

84 wins.

 

To be clear, I do not agree with this

[Sammy Sofa]

2009 was kinda like that too

 

It definitely has that feel, like things are on the downslope.

 

84 wins.

 

To be clear, I do not agree with this

 

[WrigleyField 22]

4th place at best

 

Clubhouse falls apart similar to 2004 (if i'm remembering correctly) and all our players start hating each other/the front office

 

NSBB shuts down because what's the point (at the very least i think Tim can delete the Transactions forum right now because it's not being used)

Transaction forum stays, but in spirit of a "down with the mega threads" attitude, every Ian Clarkin transaction gets its own thread.

[Brian]

Tyler Chatwood somehow fixed

 

Carl somehow skinny Kenley Jansen

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[George Hayduke]

POSITIVES:

-Contreras bounces back big and puts up a 275/350/450 line

-Darvish returns to form as well and is the clear staff ace

-A quality pitcher emerges from the accumulated pitching depth

 

NEGATIVES:

-Injuries cause an already iffy outfield to become a huge weakness

-Jon Lester ends up performing at near replacement level

-Rizzo puts up an annoyingly average season

[imb]

I will believe jon lester is not a FIP-beater whenever he doesn't beat his FIP and not a moment sooner

[CubinNY]

The starting pitching is good at points in the season and worse than mediocre most of the season, but not terrible. The Cubs have multiple pitchers on the DL. Hendricks loses velocity and becomes incredibly hittable. Hamels performers like a number 5 starter, Lester can't pitch past the 5th inning most starts.

 

The bullpen is great but gets worn down by August.

 

The defense is among the best in the league, the offense in the bottom 3rd. Schwarber's batting average stays in the low 2s, but the power is up. Schwarber gets traded at the deadline to an AL team. Rizzo becomes a mediocre hitting 1st baseman. Javy's K rate balloons. Bryant maintains a high batting average, but his power is significantly down. Contreras is the lone Cub on the All-Start Team for the NL.

 

By July there is talk that Joe has lost the team. They have a bunch of team meetings this year. They finish a dismal 4th with a losing record.

 

NSB(B) takes out our anger on each other.

You live in a dark, dark world.

The fact that this comes from CubinNY, who has been confidently predicting the Trump downfall for like, over a year now, makes it especially amazing.

That has more to do with the Teflon nature of Trump than anything else. Any one of most of the things he's done would have doomed 44 other Presidents. In hell, Nixon, Buchanan, and Harding are tipping their glasses of warm diarrhea to Trump.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is predicting that Anthony Rizzo, he of the steadily declining offensive production, will continue to decline offensively really that bold a prediction?

[The_Achiever]

2009 was kinda like that too

 

It definitely has that feel, like things are on the downslope.

 

84 wins.

 

To be clear, I do not agree with this

 

I do, that's why I posted it......

[George Hayduke]

Is predicting that Anthony Rizzo, he of the steadily declining offensive production, will continue to decline offensively really that bold a prediction?

Well, no. But then that wasn’t exactly my prediction.

[imb]

you want a bold prediction, pick which cubs player dies on the field this year

[Sammy Sofa]

Is predicting that Anthony Rizzo, he of the steadily declining offensive production, will continue to decline offensively really that bold a prediction?

Well, no. But then that wasn’t exactly my prediction.

 

I was thinking more what was said on the previous page, largely because it's something I've been worried about watching Rizzo last season.

[UMFan83]

Is predicting that Anthony Rizzo, he of the steadily declining offensive production, will continue to decline offensively really that bold a prediction?

Well, no. But then that wasn’t exactly my prediction.

 

I was thinking more what was said on the previous page, largely because it's something I've been worried about watching Rizzo last season.

 

Rizzo after April last year: .905 OPS

 

That said you can't just ignore his horrific slump (historically he's had at least 1 horrific slump every season), but seems like a good thing that it came earlier in the year and he was able to bounce back fully. He might be on the decline but I think he's still pretty close to peak Rizzo at this point. Hope I'm right

[jersey cubs fan]

I will believe jon lester is not a FIP-beater whenever he doesn't beat his FIP and not a moment sooner

$20 to the first beat writer to ask Jon when stopped beating his FIP if this season falls apart.

[Cubswin11]

Is predicting that Anthony Rizzo, he of the steadily declining offensive production, will continue to decline offensively really that bold a prediction?

Well, no. But then that wasn’t exactly my prediction.

 

I was thinking more what was said on the previous page, largely because it's something I've been worried about watching Rizzo last season.

After his horrible April, in which he played hurt with a bad back and went on the DL/sat out. He hit .303/.393/.512 with a 139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, 24 Dongs, 11% BB and K rates with a sustainable .300 BABIP from May 1 through years end. He was pretty much his same self after a bad and injured month.

[Bote McBoteface]

Cubs are gonna cruise to 105 wins, +\- 2, Rizzo gets the MVP he shoulda won already, Darvish gets Cy, Baez and Contreras both win gold glove and silver slugger.

[imb]

Well, no. But then that wasn’t exactly my prediction.

 

I was thinking more what was said on the previous page, largely because it's something I've been worried about watching Rizzo last season.

After his horrible April, in which he played hurt with a bad back and went on the DL/sat out. He hit .303/.393/.512 with a 139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, 24 Dongs, 11% BB and K rates with a sustainable .300 BABIP from May 1 through years end. He was pretty much his same self after a bad and injured month.

 

that made me feel better last year but this year is all darkness so i will point out that declines do often take the form of slumps that prolong themselves longer and longer each year thank you for listening to my ted talk

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, no. But then that wasn’t exactly my prediction.

 

I was thinking more what was said on the previous page, largely because it's something I've been worried about watching Rizzo last season.

After his horrible April, in which he played hurt with a bad back and went on the DL/sat out. He hit .303/.393/.512 with a 139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, 24 Dongs, 11% BB and K rates with a sustainable .300 BABIP from May 1 through years end. He was pretty much his same self after a bad and injured month.

 

Overall offensive value keeps slipping year after year; slumps keep getting longer.

 

It's great he has those surges to bounce back somewhat, but he's not that far off from just being a dude, unfortunately; that insane August OPS was sustained by a .333 BAbip, and he's not that kinda guy. I'm thinking about a 3-3.3 WAR next year is his likely best case scenario.

[ConstableRabbit]

 

I was thinking more what was said on the previous page, largely because it's something I've been worried about watching Rizzo last season.

After his horrible April, in which he played hurt with a bad back and went on the DL/sat out. He hit .303/.393/.512 with a 139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, 24 Dongs, 11% BB and K rates with a sustainable .300 BABIP from May 1 through years end. He was pretty much his same self after a bad and injured month.

 

Overall offensive value keeps slipping year after year; slumps keep getting longer.

 

It's great he has those surges to bounce back somewhat, but he's not that far off from just being a dude, unfortunately; that insane August OPS was sustained by a .333 BAbip, and he's not that kinda guy. I'm thinking about a 3-3.3 WAR next year is his likely best case scenario.

Not all BABIP is luck. He hit the ball hard, limited soft contact, and hit line drives in August. That's going to result in more hits when the ball stays in the yard.

[Cubswin11]

After his horrible April, in which he played hurt with a bad back and went on the DL/sat out. He hit .303/.393/.512 with a 139 wRC+, .380 wOBA, 24 Dongs, 11% BB and K rates with a sustainable .300 BABIP from May 1 through years end. He was pretty much his same self after a bad and injured month.

 

Overall offensive value keeps slipping year after year; slumps keep getting longer.

 

It's great he has those surges to bounce back somewhat, but he's not that far off from just being a dude, unfortunately; that insane August OPS was sustained by a .333 BAbip, and he's not that kinda guy. I'm thinking about a 3-3.3 WAR next year is his likely best case scenario.

Not all BABIP is luck. He hit the ball hard, limited soft contact, and hit line drives in August. That's going to result in more hits when the ball stays in the yard.

Yeah his batted ball profile was good last year and better in spots you want to see vs career averages. Rizzo is way down on my list of worries. He’s going to produce and be good if he’s healthy.

[imb]

the difference between 3.5 WAR rizzo and 5 WAR rizzo is minimal considering we signed him to a below market deal so we could afford OH GOD DAMMIT

[Sammy Sofa]

He, if that's what he is now, great. I don't think he is.

[Sammy Sofa]

the difference between 3.5 WAR rizzo and 5 WAR rizzo is minimal considering we signed him to a below market deal so we could afford OH GOD DAMMIT

 

I'm a complete horsefeathering Two-Face about how horribly glad I am that the Cubs have perfectly set up team options at exactly the right time for a a guy that is likely going to age into being a not valuable starting 1B pretty damn quickly.

 

Which horsefeathering sucks, because he's Rizzo, and he's one of the (tiny)faces of the WS team and the franchise, and he's exactly the kind of guy who should harken back to the ye olden times of guys riding out most of their careers with the same club, but the Cubs are going to give him the boot as soon as it "makes sense" and never look back.

[sweetpeteman]

The Cubs don't do too bad in the first half, but really don't excel either. They enter July with a 43-42 record (1 game to be made up) and split the series against the Pirates. Addison Russell has been DFA'd after batting .190 through the start of June, when evidence emerges that he continues to harass one of his exes and him being out late at night at bars/clubs on nights before day games. Maddon makes more dumb statements, which is a marked difference from the rest of the season where he doesn't seem to be doing anything.

 

They start July by splitting at the Pirates and the Sox, going into the break with a 46-45 record, but only a couple back of the Brewers, who aren't doing crap either. The shock comes on the Wednesday after the break, when the Cubs announce that Joe Maddon has been fired with Mark Loretta taking his place.

 

The Cubs rebound in the second half and end up going 92-70, winning a NL Central where the teams beat the crap out of each other with no team really pulling away. The Brewers end up in second, but miss the playoffs as the Braves and Rockies take the WC spots.