Kris Bryant is awesome and we were always right to love him

[Sammy Sofa]

And "it's only April22nd/been X number of games" doesn't count, dammit.

[Bertz]

Off days are boring and stink, so I'm placating myself by checking out the Cubs' individual splits on BR. Almost everyone is looking pretty, pretty, pretty, pri-tay good in some way...except for Bryant.

 

Someone smarter at baseball than me make me feel better by pointing out some things that I'm missing when I end up bummed out by consistently mediocre his splits seem to be so far.

 

His exit velocity looks fine, in fact it's currently better than it was in 2017. That's hopefully a sign his shoulder is fine. And if his shoulder is fine, this is most likely just a slump.

 

His two problems have been that he's been making too much contact on pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing too much on pitches over the heart of the plate. Those *should* just be normal slump problems.

 

These are his heatmaps for contact rate in 2017 vs 2019

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B&ss=&se=&type=3&hand=&count=&blur=0&grid=5&view=&pitch=&season=2017&data=pi

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B&ss=&se=&type=3&hand=&count=&blur=0&grid=5&view=&pitch=&season=2019&data=pi

 

Notice all that extra orange on the left in 2019? That means pitchers that this year when pitchers have jammed him he's still made contact, likely crap contact.

Whereas in 2017 he would have swung and missed through those pitches and the AB would continue. Also, the box in the bottom right (low and away out of the zone) is much lighter. Those are extra pitches he's lunging at and rolling over.

 

Conversely, all that white right down the middle and down and in in 2019 means he's swinging through a lot more pitches in zones that he used to hit the hell out of.

 

So if KB's bad now it doesn't look to be because his shoulder has been turned into hamburger meat. (if there was a heatmap of exit velocity by zone that would really help check this). I personally have a really hard time imagining him continuing to struggle if he's healthy, but we'll see.

[Sammy Sofa]

[We Got The Whole 9]

He can't pull a ball for horsefeathers this year.

[Cubswin11]

He's also making the lowest amount of soft contact he's ever made in his career (9%).

[PackLandVA]

Mark Prior

Unbelievable college talent and a top draft pick

Tore up minor leagues

Phenomenal in first couple of big league seasons

Flukey injury running the bases

Shoulder not quite right

Never the same player as before the injury

 

 

Kris Bryant

Unbelievable college talent and a top draft pick

Tore up minor leagues

Phenomenal in first couple of big league seasons

Flukey injury running the bases

Shoulder not quite right

Never the same player as before the injury

 

 

Towel Drill Time, Kris.

[Cubswin11]

Mark Prior

Unbelievable college talent and a top draft pick

Tore up minor leagues

Phenomenal in first couple of big league seasons

Flukey injury running the bases

Shoulder not quite right

Never the same player as before the injury

 

 

Kris Bryant

Unbelievable college talent and a top draft pick

Tore up minor leagues

Phenomenal in first couple of big league seasons

Flukey injury running the bases

Shoulder not quite right

Never the same player as before the injury

 

 

Towel Drill Time, Kris.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Off days are boring and stink, so I'm placating myself by checking out the Cubs' individual splits on BR. Almost everyone is looking pretty, pretty, pretty, pri-tay good in some way...except for Bryant.

 

Someone smarter at baseball than me make me feel better by pointing out some things that I'm missing when I end up bummed out by consistently mediocre his splits seem to be so far.

 

His exit velocity looks fine, in fact it's currently better than it was in 2017. That's hopefully a sign his shoulder is fine. And if his shoulder is fine, this is most likely just a slump.

 

His two problems have been that he's been making too much contact on pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing too much on pitches over the heart of the plate. Those *should* just be normal slump problems.

 

These are his heatmaps for contact rate in 2017 vs 2019

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B&ss=&se=&type=3&hand=&count=&blur=0&grid=5&view=&pitch=&season=2017&data=pi

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B&ss=&se=&type=3&hand=&count=&blur=0&grid=5&view=&pitch=&season=2019&data=pi

 

Notice all that extra orange on the left in 2019? That means pitchers that this year when pitchers have jammed him he's still made contact, likely crap contact.

Whereas in 2017 he would have swung and missed through those pitches and the AB would continue. Also, the box in the bottom right (low and away out of the zone) is much lighter. Those are extra pitches he's lunging at and rolling over.

 

Conversely, all that white right down the middle and down and in in 2019 means he's swinging through a lot more pitches in zones that he used to hit the hell out of.

 

So if KB's bad now it doesn't look to be because his shoulder has been turned into hamburger meat. (if there was a heatmap of exit velocity by zone that would really help check this). I personally have a really hard time imagining him continuing to struggle if he's healthy, but we'll see.

 

This is a Duker-in-his-prime level breakdown. Great job.

 

I did see Duker had a great breakdown on David Bote via Twitter, though.

 

I have no breakdowns, other than to say that I think KB is sort of broken down and I'm not sure he is ever going to come close to that $300 million contract. But if he's still actually good, this is the proper time for him to suck so he has 2 1/2 seasons to rebound and get GM's excited again.

[The_Achiever]

Yeah I think the extension business has maybe screwed with him a little. He looks fine physically to me, hopefully just some early season residue from a lost year last year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

You can find what I believe you are looking for at Baseball Savant. Search by avg. exit velocity and then click on zone profile.

 

2015:

 

2016:

 

2017:

 

2018:

 

2019:

 

So, yeah, there have been some gains inside the zone. I think he's certainly dialed things back a little bit since his rookie year in order to make more contact. A few things tick out: Too many grounders so far. Also, no infield hits for a guy that ranked 2nd of qualified hitters in IFH% between 2015-2018. The BABIP should go up with more ABs. And hopefully he starts getting it in the air more and his ISO gets back up to a 2017-level.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

The ground ball thing likely falls in with what Bertz is talking about with the bad contact outside the zone, too.

[We Got The Whole 9]

He really has 'lost' quite a bit of his pull power on inside pitches that was so prevalent in 2015 and 2016. I know this is me just repeating myself but the profiles demonstrate it quite clearly.

[17 Seconds]

now we know what marlins fans felt like after the jose fernandez thing

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What kind of odds could I have gotten on a prop bet two years ago: More home runs, 2019 Kris Bryant or 2012 Darwin Barney?

[squally1313]

Kris Bryant, who is bad, now has the following:

 

The best walk rate (14.8%) of his career.

The best strike out rate (19.0%) of his career.

The best hard hit rate (41.6%) of his career.

The best soft hit rate (11.2%) of his career.

A .274 BABIP, which is 67 points lower than his career average, and 58 points lower than his next worst BABIP year.

[UMFan83]

Kris Bryant, who is bad, now has the following:

 

The best walk rate (14.8%) of his career.

The best strike out rate (19.0%) of his career.

The best hard hit rate (41.6%) of his career.

The best soft hit rate (11.2%) of his career.

A .274 BABIP, which is 67 points lower than his career average, and 58 points lower than his next worst BABIP year.

 

Yeah but he couldnt even hit a 2 run HR in the 9th yesterday. We needed 2 runs and he could only give us 1.

 

But in all seriousness, its good to see him turning around after a slow start. Every player has slumps and historically KB has been streaky at times. Assuming he's turning it around it was just awful timing for him to start out the season in a bad slump after last season. (which as you are sort of pointing out was aided a lot by bad luck).

[squally1313]

Kris Bryant, who is bad, now has the following:

 

The best walk rate (14.8%) of his career.

The best strike out rate (19.0%) of his career.

The best hard hit rate (41.6%) of his career.

The best soft hit rate (11.2%) of his career.

A .274 BABIP, which is 67 points lower than his career average, and 58 points lower than his next worst BABIP year.

 

Yeah but he couldnt even hit a 2 run HR in the 9th yesterday. We needed 2 runs and he could only give us 1.

 

But in all seriousness, its good to see him turning around after a slow start. Every player has slumps and historically KB has been streaky at times. Assuming he's turning it around it was just awful timing for him to start out the season in a bad slump after last season. (which as you are sort of pointing out was aided a lot by bad luck).

 

Yeah I mean, the start wasn't great for reasons beyond luck...from what I can tell his BABIP has actually gone down since the first couple weeks. But even then, it was still a .690 OPS. I'm going to bet just about every player in baseball has a two week stretch like that. Since then, he's been unreal (.965 OPS on a .260 BABIP).

[Sammy Sofa]

Kris Bryant, who was bad, is now good

[Clem Fandango]

Kris Bryant, who is bad, now has the following:

 

The best walk rate (14.8%) of his career.

The best strike out rate (19.0%) of his career.

The best hard hit rate (41.6%) of his career.

The best soft hit rate (11.2%) of his career.

A .274 BABIP, which is 67 points lower than his career average, and 58 points lower than his next worst BABIP year.

 

Yeah but he couldnt even hit a 2 run HR in the 9th yesterday. We needed 2 runs and he could only give us 1.

 

He learned by watching Aramis.

[Bull]

Kris Bryant, who was bad, is now good

 

You idiots really don't understand how reverse jinxes work, do you?

[minnesotacubsfan]

Guys, KB might be ok

[CyHawk_Cub]

O.K. fine, he's back. Keep on dongin' please.

[UMFan83]

Updated season OPS: .889

[squally1313]

Updated season OPS: .889

Someone who’s good at math throw a .340 BABIP on those numbers.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Updated season OPS: .889

Someone who’s good at math throw a .340 BABIP on those numbers.