Cole Hamels: Somehow Justin Verlander

[Bertz]

Someone (Duke) tell me this is sustainable

 

As a Cub he's throwing 93.6 mph. His high for a season is 93.7. Now that's skewed because most guys throw softer in April and then ramp it up. but his velocity is nearly nearly where it was in his prime.

 

My guess is he's not back to being an ace, but there's a good chance he is at least back to being a guy who you say "Oh good Cole is starting."

[BigSlick]

He’s been really good.

[Bull]

He’s been really good.

Additionally, he has not been awful.

[Clem Fandango]

He hasn't not been good.

 

Meanwhile, over in the imaginary Tyler Chatwood thread...

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

last 2 Wrigley starts:

16 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 22 K

[The_Achiever]

I'd like a whole board composed of nothing but MacGruber gifs.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'd like a whole board composed of nothing but MacGruber gifs.

[sneakypower]

probably the wisest move, especially considering he's a couple of days older than Jon Lester

counterpoint: Hamels has 2.5 plus pitches and Lester, well, has none

[We Got The Whole 9]

If nothing else he's likely as good as Hendricks when Hendricks is on, and lately, Hendricks has been on. So, that's 2 pitchers probably a small notch below surefire ace.

 

Really great acquisition.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

last 2 Wrigley starts:

16 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 22 K

 

He also pitched at Wrigley with the Rangers in 2016 so add another 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, and 7 K

[Andy]

last 2 Wrigley starts:

16 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 22 K

I only know this because Len pointed it out on Twitter, but this isn't true - he pitched here with the Rangers in 16 (and was great in that game as well, just less great than last night)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

well what was all that "first time back since his no-hitter" talk? I should know better

[Old Style]

Somehow Cy Young

[17 Seconds]

"so then he says my contract allowed them to get yu darvish"

 

[CubsWin]

So with Yu, Chatwood and Montgomery on the DL, who's the Cubs 5th starter now? Another trade coming? I hope so because the remaining options are Luke Farrell, Duane Underwood, Alec Mills, Jen-Ho Tseng or adding Trevor Clifton or Kyle Ryan to the 40-man roster.

 

I see that Mills is pitching tomorrow, but that likely won't do going forward.

[Banedon]

So with Yu, Chatwood and Montgomery on the DL, who's the Cubs 5th starter now? Another trade coming? I hope so because the remaining options are Luke Farrell, Duane Underwood, Alec Mills, Jen-Ho Tseng or adding Trevor Clifton or Kyle Ryan to the 40-man roster.

 

I see that Mills is pitching tomorrow, but that likely won't do going forward.

 

Monty should be back quickly. They're just trying to get by.

 

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I wrote a little while ago about picking up Hamel's option at the end of the year and then flipping him + cash to SD for a nice prospect in the offseason. Yeah, horsefeathers that...

 

I think we have to bring him back now, but I wonder if we can negotiate a better deal than the $20 mil option. Texas is on the hook for the $6 mil buyout. I think the Cubs should talk to Hamels and his agent about bringing him back at a lower amount (let's say $12 mil) plus include an option for 2020. That option would include a $2 mil buyout if we declined it.

 

2019 salary: $12 mil for 2019 season + $6 mil buyout (from Tex) + $2 mil buyout for 2020 option = $20 mil (the exact same amount)

2020 option: $16 mil option (you could make this a vesting option if he reaches enough innings)

 

You could also include bonuses for making the All-Star game, finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, reaching certain innings thresholds, etc. Not sure how much the option for 2020 should be, but I think $16 mil would be a fair amount. I'm positive Hamels wants to come back and that a deal like this is possible.

[Banedon]

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[UMFan83]

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I wrote a little while ago about picking up Hamel's option at the end of the year and then flipping him + cash to SD for a nice prospect in the offseason. Yeah, horsefeathers that...

 

I think we have to bring him back now, but I wonder if we can negotiate a better deal than the $20 mil option. Texas is on the hook for the $6 mil buyout. I think the Cubs should talk to Hamels and his agent about bringing him back at a lower amount (let's say $12 mil) plus include an option for 2020. That option would include a $2 mil buyout if we declined it.

 

2019 salary: $12 mil for 2019 season + $6 mil buyout (from Tex) + $2 mil buyout for 2020 option = $20 mil (the exact same amount)

2020 option: $16 mil option (you could make this a vesting option if he reaches enough innings)

 

You could also include bonuses for making the All-Star game, finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, reaching certain innings thresholds, etc. Not sure how much the option for 2020 should be, but I think $16 mil would be a fair amount. I'm positive Hamels wants to come back and that a deal like this is possible.

 

I was just coming to make a similar post but was asking whether the Rangers would throw a fit it we just declined his option and signed him 1 year/$14m to avoid the extra $6m, but I think if you structured it the way you suggested it would make the Cubs look less bad and would benefit both the Cubs and Hamels. You might need to make the buyout 3-4m though just to throw Hamels a bone vs. exploring the market and potentially getting more dollars and/or years from another team.

[Tim]

If Hamels continues this, why on earth would he accept anything less than a three year deal worth lots of money? He'll get it from someone if he continues to be anywhere close to this good.

[ConstableRabbit]

If Hamels continues this, why on earth would he accept anything less than a three year deal worth lots of money? He'll get it from someone if he continues to be anywhere close to this good.

2019 is a club option at $19m. So, he may not have a choice.

[UMFan83]

If Hamels continues this, why on earth would he accept anything less than a three year deal worth lots of money? He'll get it from someone if he continues to be anywhere close to this good.

2019 is a club option at $19m. So, he may not have a choice.

 

He's saying if the Cubs bought out his contact and tried to negotiate a club friendly deal to bring him back. Good point Tim. If he continued to pitch like an ace the rest of this year, I'd be open to a 2 year deal with a team option for year 3 with a nice buyout, but if he wants 3 years guaranteed, I'd just pick up the option for next year.

[Splendid Splinter]

I wonder if Cubs will offer something similar to Lackey's 2 yr deal, but more like 18-20 mil/yr instead of 16 that Lackey got after using the buyout.

[Laura]

Nightengale, but some good parts

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/08/27/cubs-cole-hamels-trade-career-boost/1109831002/

 

Hamels couch surfing:

 

Hamels has been hop-scotching all over Chicago the past month, staying in different places since being traded to the Cubs. With no washer and dryer of his own, he brought his dirty laundry to Wrigley Field.

 

100-year flood of greatness:

 

There hasn’t been a pitcher in nearly a century who has been traded during the season and dominated like Hamels. He is the first pitcher since Lee Meadows in 1919 to yield one or no runs in each of his first five starts with his new team. Hamels, scheduled to start Tuesday against the New York Mets and Cy Young Award candidate Jacob deGrom, is 4-0 with a 0.79 ERA. He hurled the first complete game by a Cubs pitcher this season in his last outing, against the Cincinnati Reds.

 

Lester's seal of approval:

 

“I remember talking to Theo about that when we made the deal,’’ Cubs ace Jon Lester said. “Texas is such a hard place to pitch, it’s hotter than two hells there, and it’s such a hitter’s ballpark. Theo told me, ‘Let’s just get him out of there, bring him to a new place, to a fun atmosphere where you’re winning and see what happens. Sometimes, you just need a change.’ ’’

[bauermj]

Does anyone truly know the luxury tax implications of the various options? From what I've gathered:

[*]Per the CBA, the $6M 2019 buyout has already been included in Hamel's AAV calculation from '13-'18 for luxury tax purposes

[*]If the 2019 option is declined all bets are off for Hamel's 2019+ contract status and luxury tax #; TEX pays $6M buyout

[*]If the 2019 option is exercised Hamel's luxury tax # for 2019 should only be $14M. even if the Cubs have to pay all $20M

[*]Even if the Cubs declined the option so as to force TEX to pay $6M AND had a gentlemen's agreement for $16M (earning him $22M instead of $20M) it would have negative luxury tax implications when compared to simply exercising the option.

 

On declining the option: I feel like the luxury tax implications and any competitive disadvantages associated with it are worse for the Cubs than simply paying an extra $6M in cash for his services, but perhaps I'm wrong.

Not impossible but I would be surprised if Hamel's like the Cubs enough to have them decline the option, thus making him a full fledged Free Agent, while still giving them sole negotiation access. And would the risk of signing him to extra year(s) in the form of a two or three year deal be worth the risk than simply having him at $20M real money & $14M AAV for 2019?