The Mock Off Season Thread

[Cubswin11]

Just a hypothetical, what would Hendricks bring back in the current market? Like could he get another teams Russell or Benintendi?

[Backtobanks]

Just a hypothetical, what would Hendricks bring back in the current market? Like could he get another teams Russell or Benintendi?

 

I don't think so simply because he's not looked at as an ace. He's a great #3 and pitches like a #1 or #2 much of the time, but still doesn't have that "name" factor.

[UMFan83]

Just a hypothetical, what would Hendricks bring back in the current market? Like could he get another teams Russell or Benintendi?

 

I don't think so simply because he's not looked at as an ace. He's a great #3 and pitches like a #1 or #2 much of the time, but still doesn't have that "name" factor.

 

He's 19th in pitching fWAR over the last 2 seasons despite missing 6 weeks this year, won the ERA title and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2016 and is just hitting his 1st year of arbitration meaning he has 3 years of control. His career ERA is 2.94 over 600 innings and his career postseason ERA is 2.88 over 10 starts, including giving up 1 ER combined in pennant and world series clinching games in 2016. GMs don't care about his name value, he gets tons of praise for his ability to locate and inducing weak contact not to mention comparisons to Maddux for his cerebral approach to pitching. He would get a lot if offered for a trade.

[Backtobanks]

Just a hypothetical, what would Hendricks bring back in the current market? Like could he get another teams Russell or Benintendi?

 

I don't think so simply because he's not looked at as an ace. He's a great #3 and pitches like a #1 or #2 much of the time, but still doesn't have that "name" factor.

 

He's 19th in pitching fWAR over the last 2 seasons despite missing 6 weeks this year, won the ERA title and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2016 and is just hitting his 1st year of arbitration meaning he has 3 years of control. His career ERA is 2.94 over 600 innings and his career postseason ERA is 2.88 over 10 starts, including giving up 1 ER combined in pennant and world series clinching games in 2016. GMs don't care about his name value, he gets tons of praise for his ability to locate and inducing weak contact not to mention comparisons to Maddux for his cerebral approach to pitching. He would get a lot if offered for a trade.

 

I never said he wouldn't get a lot if offered in a trade. I just mean that I don't think most GMs think of him as an option if they're hoping for Archer/Stroman. Obviously, every team would love to have him.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

I don't think so simply because he's not looked at as an ace. He's a great #3 and pitches like a #1 or #2 much of the time, but still doesn't have that "name" factor.

 

He's 19th in pitching fWAR over the last 2 seasons despite missing 6 weeks this year, won the ERA title and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2016 and is just hitting his 1st year of arbitration meaning he has 3 years of control. His career ERA is 2.94 over 600 innings and his career postseason ERA is 2.88 over 10 starts, including giving up 1 ER combined in pennant and world series clinching games in 2016. GMs don't care about his name value, he gets tons of praise for his ability to locate and inducing weak contact not to mention comparisons to Maddux for his cerebral approach to pitching. He would get a lot if offered for a trade.

 

I never said he wouldn't get a lot if offered in a trade. I just mean that I don't think most GMs think of him as an option if they're hoping for Archer/Stroman. Obviously, every team would love to have him.

Most fans probably wouldn't think much of him, but most of the MLB GM class is largely beyond the Jim Hendry era of thinking.

[Backtobanks]

 

He's 19th in pitching fWAR over the last 2 seasons despite missing 6 weeks this year, won the ERA title and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2016 and is just hitting his 1st year of arbitration meaning he has 3 years of control. His career ERA is 2.94 over 600 innings and his career postseason ERA is 2.88 over 10 starts, including giving up 1 ER combined in pennant and world series clinching games in 2016. GMs don't care about his name value, he gets tons of praise for his ability to locate and inducing weak contact not to mention comparisons to Maddux for his cerebral approach to pitching. He would get a lot if offered for a trade.

 

I never said he wouldn't get a lot if offered in a trade. I just mean that I don't think most GMs think of him as an option if they're hoping for Archer/Stroman. Obviously, every team would love to have him.

Most fans probably wouldn't think much of him, but most of the MLB GM class is largely beyond the Jim Hendry era of thinking.

 

Meanwhile Hendry still has a top job in baseball and all of us "smart guys" are still posting here on NSBB. LOL

[jersey cubs fan]

Meanwhile Hendry still has a top job in baseball and all of us "smart guys" are still posting here on NSBB. LOL

there's a plethora of goobers working in various special assistant roles across the league. And maybe he'll get a job with Derek Jeter's bumbling Marlins, but that doesn't negate the fact that most of the MLB GM class has moved well beyond that superficial thought process.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So Buehler only threw 98 innings last year and his career best was 102.1, back in college in 2014. I think there's sizable risk of him becoming another Julio Urías whose strict pitch and innings count severely limits his big league value as a starter (and that assumes no more injuries).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Put me down for 'it's silly to think that the Cubs can snake their way into a player that all 30 teams would want and can afford by other teams miraculously failing to have a lead piece', and also 'it's silly to think a team blowing it up is going to be so picky to turn down value in the form of Addison Russell so they can bank pitching prospects'.

[WoodRules]

Just spitballin here but, is there any chance the FO has any interest in Stanton? What kind of players would be involved if the Cubs took on the entire remaining salary? It seems they are saving up for Harper next year but Stanton would actually be cheaper (and older, I realize). Sign Cobb, Lackey and a couple of the rumored bullpen arms and call it and offseason.

[Cubswin11]

Just spitballin here but, is there any chance the FO has any interest in Stanton? What kind of players would be involved if the Cubs took on the entire remaining salary? It seems they are saving up for Harper next year but Stanton would actually be cheaper (and older, I realize). Sign Cobb, Lackey and a couple of the rumored bullpen arms and call it and offseason.

If it’s the whole contract I wouldn’t give up any of the Baez/Russell/Happ/Schwarber/Almora group. I’d give up like Monty and Caritini or Zagunis or some minor leaguers (non Alzolay/Ademan types). If it’s the whole contact and they want 1 of Happ/Almora/Baez (Schwarber and Russell would be a no for me still) I’d want Yelich back with him as well.

[toonsterwu]

Put me down for 'it's silly to think that the Cubs can snake their way into a player that all 30 teams would want and can afford by other teams miraculously failing to have a lead piece', and also 'it's silly to think a team blowing it up is going to be so picky to turn down value in the form of Addison Russell so they can bank pitching prospects'.

 

To be clear, that isn't what I've said at all (the 2nd part). What I've said is that I can envision other teams putting together competitive packages such that the value of Addison Russell isn't overwhelming enough to the point that the lack of a higher level secondary asset could conceivably make the difference, and I posited that due to the way the Rays system currently stacks, they might want another pitcher. I've also said that my perception of Alzolay may not match up with "reality", and that he might be good enough value wise.

 

____

 

Tom, my Boston scenario was based upon the premise that they add punch to the lineup for adding Stanton or JD Martinez.

 

____

 

Yes, the Cubs would be sitting pretty if they were willing to offer up Russell in a deal, like I said above. I just don't think the Cubs would be the only team that might be willing to make a big risky move.

[davell]

From a "everyone needs young pitching" standpoint....Then fine, Tampa does too. But, if they deal Archer, they're still set up with Odorizzi, Faria, Andriese, Honeywell, and Snell. With Cabrera, Schultz, Yarbrough, and DeLeon all relatively close or ready to contribute.

 

That's much, much, much better than they're young hitting looks. There's extremely few elite arms even in the minors currently. A guy like Alzolay can easily be looked at as a 2nd tier guy, after a group of 5 to 7 or 8, at most.

 

They need hitting.

[Bertz]

Here is my attempt. Luckily for me there's still been no movement so I still have free reign. Generally, I went into this assuming that the club can't go much beyond the luxury tax limit until the new TV deal kicks in, and also being mindful that I REALLY want Bryce Harper (and am willing to 'settle' for Machado :-) ). So this plan leaves us ~$40 million under the cap in 2019 with only a few lower leverage spots in the bullpen and two spots on the bench left to be filled. For FA contracts, I went with what Jon Heyman predicted they'd get where possible.

 

I found that the best way to get through the offseason was to throw money at the bullpen, and then use trades to fix the rotation. There are no super-relievers out there this year (I don't trust Davis at all going forward) but there's a lot of B+ guys and intriguing bounce-back candidates. I went with these three guys, but there's about a thousand permutations with this money and these years that adequately fix the bullpen.

 

Brandon Morrow 3 Yrs, $24 Mil

Jake McGee 2 Yrs, $14 Mil

Luke Gregerson 1 Yr, $7 Mil

 

Morrow was a monster last year, so he's signed with the hope taht he keeps it up, but priced with the reality that he's a living medical red flag, and may miss time or quickly lose effectiveness. Jake McGee is a quality set-up guy, there's not much to say beyond that except that maybe Hickey and/or normal altitude can get him back into dominant closer territory, so there's a little bit of upside there. Luke Gregerson I really like. He's been a good-but-boring set-up guy for like a decade. He lost velocity and some ground balls along with it last year, but still looks like he was very good and just the victim of some flukey homeruns. Speaking of flukey homeruns, I don't cut Rondon in this scenario. He's not the guy he was a few years ago, but at minimum he's a decent 7th innning guy with upside, I'm not sure there's actually a better way to spend ~$6 million.

 

For the rotation, I use up our major league trade assets, but generally keep from dipping too much into the minors. There is probably a little bit more needed to make these deals work from the minor leagues, but no one too painful should have to go in addition to the major league assets. I think in general on the trade front this offseason, even outside of this exercise, I'd try to use our closer to the majors position players and further from the majors pitchers. e.g. I'd rather deal Albertos than Alzolay, and Charcer Burkes more than DJ Wilson. Anyways, here are my trades to fill the rotation

 

Vic Caratini+ to Oakland for Kendall Graveman

Javy Baez and Mike Montgomery for Chris Archer and Adeinny Hechevarria

 

I'm a big Graveman fan. I think there's more in there, but even if there's not he's a league average-ish starter today. Oakland desperately needs position players, and they've got a lot of interesting pitching at both the major and minor league level, so I think they match up really well with us. In the Archer deal, giving up Javy sucks, I'm not going to pretend it doesn't. But there are enough issues with him that I think I'd rather trade him and backfill with Hechevarria than trade Happ.

 

Finally, I bring back Rene Rivera for 1 Yr, $3 Mil. This gives us a roster of

 

C - Contreras/Rivera

1b - Rizzo

2b - Happ/La Stella/Zobrist

SS - Russell/Hechevarria

3b - Bryant

LF - Schwarber

CF - Almora

RF - Heyward

SP - Quintana/Archer/Lester/Hendricks/Graveman

BP - Morrow/McGee/CJ/Wilson/Strop/Rondon/Gregerson/Grimm(?)

 

Payroll ends up right around $180 million after insurance/40 man/etc., so there's still room to do some work at the deadline. I think the one thing this team is kind of missing is a long man/swing guy after the trade of Montgomery, so I would probably look for someone in the Trevor Cahill mold who is jobless in February and give them Grimm's roster spot. But I think this team rocks, is still pretty deep on the position player side, and I've generally "kept the powder dry" at least in terms of $$.

[toonsterwu]

From a "everyone needs young pitching" standpoint....Then fine, Tampa does too. But, if they deal Archer, they're still set up with Odorizzi, Faria, Andriese, Honeywell, and Snell. With Cabrera, Schultz, Yarbrough, and DeLeon all relatively close or ready to contribute.

 

That's much, much, much better than they're young hitting looks. There's extremely few elite arms even in the minors currently. A guy like Alzolay can easily be looked at as a 2nd tier guy, after a group of 5 to 7 or 8, at most.

 

They need hitting.

 

 

Leaving everything aside for a moment, I'd argue that their young positional/hitting core looks more interesting than what they have on the arm side. Adames is there, along with McKay. Jesus Sanchez might be Victor Robles, and Justin Williams had such a strong year last year. There's high floor guys like Bauers and Joe McCarthy. There's some upside pieces like Rondon, Fox, and Franco. It's a nice mix. Now, admittedly, a lot of the guys are corner OF's/1st types, but you get past Snell/Honeywell, and I think things peter out fast on the arm side (with McKay being in that middle for now). I like Genesis Cabrera, but he profiles more as a back of the rotation/pen arm.

 

Dunno, I really don't think there's that much arm depth there.

[davell]

I can see a "loading up for Bryce" approach to the off season this year possibly. Where we're very careful in adding multiple year deals. Its not sexy at all, but tons of depth.....

 

Bring back Rivera at 1/3. That's it for the offense.

 

Trade Caratini to Oakland for Daniel Mengden.

 

Trade Alzolay, Ademan, and Montgomery to Tampa for Odorizzi and Colome.

 

Sign the following guys to 1 year deals....

 

Boone Logan, Seung Oh, Luke Gregerson, Jeremy Hellickson, and Tyson Ross.

 

Give 2 year deals to Mikolas and Neshek.

 

Go into the year with rotation depth of Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Hellickson, Ross, Mikolas, Odorizzi, Mengden, and Tseng.

 

Pen of Colome, Wilson, Strop, Edwards, Neshek, Logan, Oh, Gregerson, and Maples, with the starter surplus also factoring in somewhat.

 

Keeps you under the LT, keeps the overall budget down quite a bit for next off-season. Plus gives you quite a bit of depth to potentially get use out of.

 

Not my favorite plan, but one I can see them using, probably with a different group of names.

[Post Count Padder]

I'm not really a fan of trading Monty. He's under contract for several years and is a valuable swingman.

 

I do think there's potential there in dealing Caratini to Oakland for one of their many arms. Makes a lot of sense.

 

I also like the idea of a Brett Anderson type deal with Hellickson (though ideally with better results). Getting him back with Hickey and Maddon could be good. I also really want Cobb and I'm kinda surprised there hasn't been more about that recently. Honestly, things seem pretty quiet on the hot stove front. No one has signed a deal yet and there's really only been the one notable trade (Mariners getting Olson).

[Tim]

So...after we sign Ohtani and Cobb this week, the starting pitching will be set. I'll stick with the rest of my original post in the thread to close out the offseason.

 

Monty is the swing starter who will need to get some innings with the likely limits on Ohtani. Behind him we have Mills, Tseng and Alzolay (for the second half depth). I'm sure we'll also make a move to sign some additional depth past those guys. I'd think hard about signing Pineda to a one year + option deal. He'd serve as depth for the second half of the season and could potentially be brought up to the pen for the playoffs to serve as a long man.

 

I see Neshek as a guy that takes a one year deal with an option and I see that being really attractive to the front office. He's also a strike thrower that provides a unique look.

 

I really think they'll go after McGee. When he was with Hickey in TB, he was a monster. I think they make that reunion happen.

 

I think they'll avoid the top of the reliever market (Davis & Holland) and go with Reed. All three of these guys throw strikes and get whiffs.

 

That sets the pen up as Reed, McGee, Strop, Wilson, Carl, Neshek, Grimm, Monty. Grimm will have to beat out the guys from the minors as we've got some quality knocking on the door with Maples and others.

 

For the offense, re-sign Rivera. I really like signing Nunez if he can be fit into the budget. That gives a pretty robust OF rotation and extra IF depth so we never, ever have to see Mike Freeman again.

 

If everyone is healthy, play DL games or the Iowa shuttle for the extra man.

 

Contreras, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Almora, Heyward

Rivera, Zobrist, La Stella, Nunez, Happ

Quintana, Lester, Hendricks, Cobb, Ohtani

Reed, McGee, Strop, Wilson, Carl, Neshek, Grimm, Monty, (Maples, et al)

[CP_414]

I'll try...

 

Ohtani, of course.

 

A Trade based around Happ+Edwards to Cleveland for Danny Salazar. I like CJ, but Cleveland is likely looking for a DH and relievers after they likely lose both in free agency and Salazar is rumored to be available.

 

Sign Morrow (3 years), Nicasio (2 years), Duensing (1 year) for the bullpen.

 

Sign Drew Smyly to 1 year + team option contract.

 

Sign Rene Rivera and Curtis Granderson to 1 year deals.

 

 

Rotation - Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Salazar, Ohtani, Montgomery (sometimes), maybe Smyly in the 2nd half

 

Bullpen - Morrow, Nicasio, Strop, Wilson, Duensing, Montgomery (sometimes), Maples/Grimm, maybe Smyly in the 2nd half

 

Contreras, Rivera

Rizzo, Javy, Russell, Bryant, Zobrist, La Stella

Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Ohtani, Granderson

 

This team is probably looking for another top relief pitcher at the deadline, but it is otherwise loaded and avoids adding any big contracts this winter to save cash for Harper under the lux tax.

[Tim]

As much as I like Salazar when he's healthy, I don't trust his health anywhere close to enough to give up Happ + CJ. And while I'm really grateful we got a splendid year from Duensing, I don't expect it to happen again.

[davell]

If we somehow get Ohtani, I'd just sign Cobb and load up on the pen. No need to trade from our bats, if we get the youngest and best pitcher out there, for the league minimum.

[CP_414]

As much as I like Salazar when he's healthy, I don't trust his health anywhere close to enough to give up Happ + CJ. And while I'm really grateful we got a splendid year from Duensing, I don't expect it to happen again.

 

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining.

 

Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers with team control. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year. I don't really like Cobb. He's ok, but He's pretty far down my list.

 

With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal.

Edited December 4, 2017 by CP_414

[davell]

As much as I like Salazar when he's healthy, I don't trust his health anywhere close to enough to give up Happ + CJ. And while I'm really grateful we got a splendid year from Duensing, I don't expect it to happen again.

 

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining.

 

Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year.

 

With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal.

 

I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off..

 

Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory.

 

Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class.

 

Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete.

 

Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer.

 

Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point.

 

Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson.

 

Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be)

 

Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts

 

Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.

[CP_414]

As much as I like Salazar when he's healthy, I don't trust his health anywhere close to enough to give up Happ + CJ. And while I'm really grateful we got a splendid year from Duensing, I don't expect it to happen again.

 

I get it with Salazar, but he's a beast when healthy and is probably the most talented pitcher they can get in a Happ led trade. He has 3 years control remaining.

 

Even if they get Ohtani, they still have a bit of a surplus with position players and a need for good pitchers. Especially with Ohtani probably facing an inning limit this year.

 

With Duensing I was just trying to think of a lefty that might sign a 1 year deal.

 

I figure Duke or Logan, if we take a one year lefty.

 

That works.