MLBTR Free Agency Predictions

[Post Count Padder]

Uh, yeah so these guesses are a little bizarre:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

1. Yu Darvish – Cubs. Six years, $160MM. Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room. Darvish recorded a mere ten outs in his two brutal World Series starts for the Dodgers. With those ugly outings fresh in our minds, projecting him to receive the winter’s largest contract creates cognitive dissonance. However, Darvish remains what he was a week ago: a very good starting pitcher and the best in this free agent class.

 

Darvish spent the first seven years of his career in Japan starring for the Nippon Ham Fighters. The Fighters made Darvish available to MLB teams in December 2011, at a time when there was no limit on bidding for the exclusive right to negotiate with the player. The Rangers beat out the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Cubs with a $51.7MM bid and signed Darvish to a six-year, $56MM deal on top of that. Darvish’s fine Rangers career included 782 2/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball with a 11.0 K/9, plus four All-Star appearances and a second-place Cy Young finish. He was traded to the Dodgers in July, making him ineligible for a $17.4MM qualifying offer. While with the Rangers, Darvish went about 22 months between starts due to Tommy John surgery. He’s been injury-free this year and nudged his way past the 200-inning plateau in his brief start last night. The 31-year-old righty should have no problem setting a new free agent record for a Tommy John survivor, passing Jordan Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM deal. Seven-year contracts have historically been reserved for slightly younger pitchers without elbow surgery on their resume, so we’re expecting six years for Darvish. Free agent starters have exceeded a $25MM salary four different times, and we’re projecting Darvish to become the fifth. If the Dodgers decide to move on, the Cubs, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Astros, and Twins could be potential suitors. There’s a shortage of obvious big-market players here, allowing for dark horses to enter the mix.

 

16. Addison Reed – Cubs. Four years, $36MM. Reed has a chance to follow in the footsteps of Andrew Miller, Darren O’Day, and Brett Cecil to land a four-year deal as reliever who won’t necessarily serve as a closer. Reed did rack up saves for the White Sox and Diamondbacks from 2012-14, but stood out with the Mets as a dominant setup man in 2016. He began this season as the Mets’ stopper due to Jeurys Familia’s suspension. A blood clot put Familia on the DL in May, and Reed regained closing duties until a July trade to Boston, where he set up Craig Kimbrel. Over the last two years, Reed has a 2.40 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 in 153 2/3 innings, showing remarkable control for a reliever. He doesn’t turn 29 until December and will be a popular target for teams unwilling to meet the demands of Wade Davis and Greg Holland. The Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Rockies, and Dodgers are among the potential suitors.

 

30. Jake McGee – Cubs. Three years, $18MM. McGee, a 31-year-old southpaw reliever, was utterly dominant for several years with the Rays. He was dealt to Colorado in the January 2016 Corey Dickerson deal. McGee scuffled in his first year in Colorado but bounced back with a 3.61 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 57 1/3 innings this year with a fastball averaging almost 95 miles per hour. He had Tommy John surgery before he reached the Majors, in 2008. McGee later had arthroscopic elbow surgery in December 2014 and knee surgery the following year. He hasn’t dealt with any arm injuries in recent years and will be popular with teams seeking left-handed relief. A three-year deal is possible, if not likely.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I wouldn’t mind Darvish, but not at that price

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Last year's predictions, for reference: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html

 

Looks like for the top 25 or so they got the destination right for about a third of them, although a fair number of those were FA's being retained by their old team.

[Cubswin11]

I wouldn’t mind Darvish, but not at that price

Agree, I’d rather pay Cobb or Arrieta for their lower prices.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pass on 6/$160M for Yu when Tanaka and Arrieta are getting $100M for fewer years.

 

I'd definitely take Cobb at that price tag.

 

The reliever years/dollars seem interesting. I like Reed but pass on 4 years for him, especially when someone like Shaw only gets 3 years.

[Banedon]

If Arrieta is only gonna get 4 years $100m like they predict in that article, I think the Cubs might be in on that.

[Cubswin11]

Pass on 6/$160M for Yu when Tanaka and Arrieta are getting $100M for fewer years.

 

I'd definitely take Cobb at that price tag.

 

The reliever years/dollars seem interesting. I like Reed but pass on 4 years for him, especially when someone like Shaw only gets 3 years.

Yup, I’d rather sign Shaw and Oh for under 4 years each and probably for under $36 mil total for the 2 combined. If we are going 4 years on a RP Wade is the only guy I’d do it for and even then it would be a tougher sell. I’d rather do Wade at like 4/55-60 than Reed at 4/36-40.

[Cubswin11]

If Arrieta is only gonna get 4 years $100m like they predict in that article, I think the Cubs might be in on that.

With the draft pick assigned and also the other things around Arrieta (shorter track record, non-traditional motion, smaller body of work/success for the contract he’s commanding, feeling the Cubs have a “secret sauce” for him that might not transfer) I honestly think he’s going to have a very limited market.

[champaignchris]

If Arrieta is only gonna get 4 years $100m like they predict in that article, I think the Cubs might be in on that.

 

Yeah. The Cubs should be all over four more years of Jake. Hell, 4 years and a couple team options with reasonable buy outs wouldn't be bad. They just need to make sure they're not paying $25 million to a 38 year old who can't pitch.

 

That said, I don't think it will happen. Someone will offer Arrieta 6 years. He'll take it. He's earned it. God bless him. I wish him success when he's not pitching against the Cubs.

[champaignchris]

And looking at that list...

 

I have a really hard time seeing the Cubs paying Darvish for 6 years at $160 and then trading an MLB player for another starter, if instead they can sign Cobb for 4 years at $48 AND get Chatwood for 3 years at $20 or Jaime Garcia for 2 years at $16 or Chacin for 2 years at $14 without giving up any MLB players.

[Cubswin11]

And looking at that list...

 

I have a really hard time seeing the Cubs paying Darvish for 6 years at $160 and then trading an MLB player for another starter, if instead they can sign Cobb for 4 years at $48 AND get Chatwood for 3 years at $20 or Jaime Garcia for 2 years at $16 or Chacin for 2 years at $14 without getting up any MLB players.

Agree, this is my preferred route if that’s where the market roughly goes for those 2nd/3rd tier contracts

[Cubswin11]

Assuming his medicals aren’t complete horsefeathers I’d rather have Price (with maybe $10-25 mil thrown in) than Darvish at that deal. If we wouldn’t have to give up a lot for him.

[davell]

Too much for Darvish. Don't think we're going after a nine figure guy personally. The bullpen figures are very interesting, but instead of Reed at 4/32 and McGee at 3/18, I'll take Shaw at 3/21, Neshek at 2/12, and just bring Duensing back for 3-4 mill on a one year deal.

 

 

If you could get Cobb AND Chatwood, at those figures, it'd be nice. But, you'd need to add an extremely solid depth guy, on top of Monty. And even then, I'd think the rotation was solid, but not exciting. I think we've got to make that trade still.

[Cubswin11]

If you could get Cobb AND Chatwood, at those figures, it'd be nice. But, you'd need to add an extremely solid depth guy, on top of Monty. And even then, I'd think the rotation was solid, but not exciting. I think we've got to make that trade still.

I’d be fine and comfortable going in to the year with that rotation, I don’t think we need to make the big trade in this scenario. Just make a smaller trade for a Monty type and/or sign some combo of Ross, Pineda, Dickey, Buchholz, Dillon Gee, Anibal Sanchez, Wily Peralta, Garza, etc to minor league deals with call up date deadlines (I don’t think many, if any of those guys get guaranteed MLB contracts this year).

 

Save the trade chip bullets for in season if the rotation falls apart somewhere or in multiple spots.

[Tim]

I'd only pay that to Darvish if he has Otani packed in his suitcase. In which case, I wouldn't hesitate.

[David]

I wouldn’t mind Darvish, but not at that price

Doesn't seem that unreasonable for the best free agent pitcher in 2017.

[mul21]

McGee 10 years out from TJS is not appealing to me. Even with reduced usage as a reliever, he's essentially a ticking time bomb isn't he?

[ScrubMD]

I'd really like Watson at 2/12.

[davell]

From a value standpoint, on the relievers, I'd go like this....Based on their contracts here.

 

1. Neshek 2/12

2. Shaw 3/21

3. Cishek 2/14

4. Watson 2/12

5. Reed 4/32(don't like 4 years, but I think he's a bargain at 8 per)

 

Morrow at 3/24 would have been 2 or 3 if the playoffs didn't happen.

[imb]

Reed and McGee would be great.

[17 Seconds]

we need 2 good relievers, so let's get like 5 that we think will be good

[davell]

From a value standpoint, on the relievers, I'd go like this....Based on their contracts here.

 

1. Neshek 2/12

2. Shaw 3/21

3. Cishek 2/14

4. Watson 2/12

5. Reed 4/32(don't like 4 years, but I think he's a bargain at 8 per)

 

Morrow at 3/24 would have been 2 or 3 if the playoffs didn't happen.

 

I still think Morrow and McGee are better FAs than all these guys. I’d also like Neshek but if Oh is healthy go that way. IIRC I might like Cishek, it’s late. McGee’s getting way undersold, last season was impressive with that HR rate.

 

Is Reed still a pop up and whiffs guy now with the low walk rate? Too lazy to look

 

Yeah, Reed only has about a 40% GB rate.

 

If it weren't for his usage in the playoffs, I'd be all about Morrow. I could still make myself happy with him, but he's scary as horsefeathers, after what? 14 appearances in 15 games or something like that.

 

I like McGee. I am more likely to be happy with Duke or Logan on a one year deal though. McGee seems like he's due for another TJS. But again, if we wound up with Morrow and McGee, I'd be just fine. But hoping we added a 3rd guy too.

[Bertz]

I like Addison Reed a lot, but no way I give him four years, hell maybe not even three. I don't think I'd give four years to any reliever unless they're some sort of Jansen/Chapman caliber super-reliever.

 

I'd be in on McGee at that price. Otherwise I agree eith above that I'd be more interested in the Neshek/Cishek tier of guys. Also, if we end up getting a third guy I'd love Luke Gregerson on a one year deal.. He was a little worse this year, but like 90%of his issue looks like it was just a flukey HR/FB rate.

[toonsterwu]

I've been pondering the Cubs and Darvish since seeing this, and I still can't. I just don't see them forking over that contract, at that length. I may be wrong.

 

Tbh ... I think the Darvish contract is going to come down to three teams - Dodgers (even after the post-season, I think they'd ponder it, as they know they need impact after Kershaw), Yankees (Tanaka's there, will adding Darvish make them a lock for Otani? Yankees do need another starter and have money to burn), and the Nationals (they are entering a weird phase ... there's going to be huge contract bumps for Scherzer/Strasburg soon, but they are in win-now mode, with Harper's impending FA. Gonzalez comes off the books soon, and Wieters/Murphy/Madson/Doolittle/Kelley all could, but there's obviously guys that are going to get raises. That said, they should be able to stagger a Darvish contract ...but 3 big, long term pitching contracts?).

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Yankees jump in on Alex Cobb. They know him, he's from the Northeast, it fits a need.

[davell]

The Dodgers can't bring back Darvish after that postseason. Their fans would riot. If they add a major piece for the rotation, it'll be thru trade.

 

The Yankees are going to get under the LT and reset. I don't see them after Darvish, they can bring back CC for a year and then go into the big free agent class with an enormous amount of room under the LT.

 

The Rangers said they're not going to go crazy trying to bring him back. The Nat's could, but they're going to be saving to keep Harper. I doubt they'd let Darvish distract them and hurt their shot at keeping Bryce.

 

I think its going to be us, the Phillies, the Braves, and the Angels that are in on him. Honestly, I think he goes to the Angels.