MLBTR Free Agency Predictions

[toonsterwu]

Well, we'll see on the Dodgers. I'm not sure I see them forking over Walker Buehler, and it's going to take Buehler for them to net that impact guy, in all likelihood. I just don't see Verdugo as enough to lead a package, and I'm not sure what Urias' value is. I mean, in some respects, I think there is some clear cause for concern with Darvish (didn't love his regular season), but in another respect, his WS was understandable in that he didn't adjust to the different ball.

 

Yankees can fit a Darvish contract in there without much of a problem, particularly if they can find a way to dump part of Ellsbury and/or Robertson's deal. They can get under 197 without much a problem.

 

Never thought the Rangers could really get involved. Don't buy the Phillies unless they seriously overbid, and same for the Braves. That does beg the question of what type of contract Darvish gets, and I question the whole straight 6 year idea. I think it'll be something like 5 and an option of sorts, or a trigger.

 

The thing on the Nationals is this - winning now is their only chance to keep Bryce. After last season, it's hard to imagine them not going all-out. I think they are going to do something big - what, I don't know, but with the way the contracts are on paper, and with the fact that they have some young pieces in place to save some costs, they could conceivably make a Darvish move that can stagger across several years.

 

Angels, maybe, but it seems like the thing Eppler wants to avoid. That said, Eppler's sort of stuck in no-man's land with that team.

 

Actually, if I had to pick a darkhorse in my mind, I would pick the Mariners, which really shouldn't be a darkhorse.

[Regular Show]

I don't think we're going after Darvish unless his market has collapsed after his poor postseason performance. I doubt that's the case. Some team is going to give him the years and amount of cash he's looking for. We definitely would be down to sign him for 4 years but not at 5-6 years.

 

I think we're definitely signing A. Cobb now. I predict 4 yrs/$72-80 with an option/buyout for a 5th season. Unless some team offers a lot more per year I think we're the favorites to sign him.

 

I think Jake really wants to come back to the Cubs, but unless he's willing to signing a shorter term contract it's not happening. He's also going to get a 5-6 year deal for a lot of money. He might even get more than Darvish. I think Atlanta is going to sign him. Maybe he signs with the Giants? I doubt AL teams will have too much interest in him.

 

We are not re-signing W. Davis and I think he signs the largest contract for a relief pitcher this offseason. More than G. Holland will get. I think the Cubs sign either B. Morrow or J. McGee to replace him.

 

I think we're signing two SP this offseason to replace Jake and Lackey, and a bunch of relief pitchers. I think the Cubs will explore trading some of their young hitters, but they won't like the offers and decide against it since they'd be selling low on most of them. I think next offseason is when the Cubs will be more "ambitious" and make some big trades.

[Some Guy]

That's a lot higher of a projection for Cobb than I've seen other than from me. Obv I agree, and pretty much already think of him as a Cub.

[Tryptamine]

That's a lot higher of a projection for Cobb than I've seen other than from me. Obv I agree, and pretty much already think of him as a Cub.

 

Those contract numbers floated by MLB Trade Rumors were really bad for Cobb. He's going to get far closer to 100M than he will the 4/48 they suggest.

 

On a side note, the Reds didn't offer Zack Cozart a QO which would make him an amazing option should Theo decide to move one of of Russell or Baez.

[Cubswin11]

That's a lot higher of a projection for Cobb than I've seen other than from me. Obv I agree, and pretty much already think of him as a Cub.

 

Those contract numbers floated by MLB Trade Rumors were really bad for Cobb. He's going to get far closer to 100M than he will the 4/48 they suggest.

 

On a side note, the Reds didn't offer Zack Cozart a QO which would make him an amazing option should Theo decide to move one of of Russell or Baez.

I know he had a really great year this past year and obviously he's a good option to have to replace Javy/Russell if one is traded but I don't get the Cozart love especially since he didn't get QO'd he'll probably get a decent contract. He's a career .250/.300/.430 hitter and has had more below average offensive years than above average since 2012 and he's 32. I know the defense is really good and yeah if Russell is traded I'd rather have him than not but him being available shouldn't make trading Russell any more likely/easy, IMO.

[toonsterwu]

I just don't see much of a chance that Russell is traded over Baez. If one of the two get moved, my guess is that it's Baez, who should be able to net enough. Russell's combined ceiling, if he ever reaches it, is higher.

 

Cozart's going to get a pretty good deal. I buy that he's coming into his own, but I wouldn't be enthused about forking over a deal for him. I'd rather explore the trade market in that scenario. I'd rather see if, say, a Brian Dozier was available (last year of his deal, chances Twins resign him see slim), with Baez or Russell at short. There's other options. I think Neil Walker may get a pretty short term deal. I just don't want to fork over a likely 4 year deal for a 32 year old. I'd explore a trade for Jurickson Profar.

[Tim]

If management thinks that his PF is going to be an ongoing issue, or if they think he could have character flaws regarding women that add too much risk, I could see them dealing him instead of Javy, et al. Otherwise I think they see him as part of the core core.

[Bull]

If management thinks that his PF is going to be an ongoing issue, or if they think he could have character flaws regarding women that add too much risk, I could see them dealing him instead of Javy, et al. Otherwise I think they see him as part of the core core.

love the dangled modifier.

[Bote McBoteface]

I see 3 really good reasons to sign Darvish:

 

1. He's real good

2. That Otani guy might be included

3. Dodgers fans would be really annoyed watching him dominate them in next years NLCS

 

6/160? Sure thing, lets do it.

[Cubswin11]

I see 3 really good reasons to sign Darvish:

 

1. He's real good

2. That Otani guy might be included

3. Dodgers fans would be really annoyed watching him dominate them in next years NLCS

 

6/160? Sure thing, lets do it.

Number 2 is the only remotely good reason to give out that contract

[David]

I see 3 really good reasons to sign Darvish:

 

1. He's real good

2. That Otani guy might be included

3. Dodgers fans would be really annoyed watching him dominate them in next years NLCS

 

6/160? Sure thing, lets do it.

Number 2 is the only remotely good reason to give out that contract

 

He's really good isn't a remotely good reason?

[Cubswin11]

I see 3 really good reasons to sign Darvish:

 

1. He's real good

2. That Otani guy might be included

3. Dodgers fans would be really annoyed watching him dominate them in next years NLCS

 

6/160? Sure thing, lets do it.

Number 2 is the only remotely good reason to give out that contract

 

He's really good isn't a remotely good reason?

For 6/160, no thanks

[David]

Number 2 is the only remotely good reason to give out that contract

 

He's really good isn't a remotely good reason?

For 6/160, no thanks

 

that's basically what lester got 3 years ago at the same age. yeah, a little more risk in terms of durability, i guess, but the cubs will be printing more and more money.

 

 

160/6 doesn't seem remotely crazy or unreasonable to me for a really good pitcher who has been basically good for a 3-5 win season his whole career aside from the year missed for tjs.

[Cubswin11]

 

He's really good isn't a remotely good reason?

For 6/160, no thanks

 

that's basically what lester got 3 years ago at the same age. yeah, a little more risk in terms of durability, i guess, but the cubs will be printing more and more money.

 

 

160/6 doesn't seem remotely crazy or unreasonable to me for a really good pitcher who has been basically good for a 3-5 win season his whole career aside from the year missed for tjs.

I certainly get that he’s worth that/will demand that but there’s enough red flags/alternatives for me that I wouldn’t go there with him. I’d rather have 1 of Jake/Cobb and 1 of Chatwood/Chacin/Hellickson/etc for less years and money combined.

[imb]

I'm not necessarily against a Darvish signing, but at 6 years you're certainly losing one year to injury, and likely another to ineffectiveness due to age/recovery.