Starting Pitching candidates

[Tim]

also, ask yourself why a team that's approaching seeing the fruits of a rebuild is very open to trading a 26 year old starter

 

Unless they think he's hurt or his arm is about to explode, I'm not a big fan of this logic, since it applies nearly equally to every team and player that could be traded.

 

i just don't see why a team that is trending upward (and appears to be in the process of turning a corner on big league results) with a lot of young talent coming up would be looking to sell low on a 26 year old starter who has had success in the past. i'm not saying it's blanket logic that can be applied everywhere or anything, but this specific case is odd to me.

Well, they have quite a few pitching prospects that are at various stages of readiness. If they feel they could get similar production from one or more of them while also getting a healthy return for Teheran, then there's logic there.

 

But my overall resistance to Teheran is well established.

[Tryptamine]

When a team is actively shopping for pitchers like the Braves and then openly selling another there's not a lot of ways you can spin that in the positive for the guy getting sold.

[davell]

As someone with plenty of experience in marketing and sales, I'd LOVE to hear how supposedly TRYING, but not GETTING players is successful marketing.

[jehr]

Fun question for the group, just because....

 

 

Who here would do Arietta for Teheran straight up? Not that I think there's any reason the braves would be interested...

[Tryptamine]

When a team is actively shopping for pitchers like the Braves and then openly selling another there's not a lot of ways you can spin that in the positive for the guy getting sold.

 

Marketing ploy...They have probably the best farm in the league, if they actually were buyers they'd buy. Teams are copying the Cubs, who also were rumored to be shopping for SPs when they sucked.

 

You should tell that to the White Sox who had top 25 prospect Ozzie Albies offered to them in part of a Quintana deal.

[Tryptamine]

Fun question for the group, just because....

 

 

Who here would do Arietta for Teheran straight up? Not that I think there's any reason the braves would be interested...

 

It makes this year's playoff rotation worse so I hard pass.

[davell]

Realistically, we have room to add one MAJOR starting pitcher between now and Opening Day next year. We've got Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks written in ink.

 

One of Monty, Butler, or any other "upside" play, ala Gausman, or those types, will be our 5th, with others providing depth.....

 

So, with our ONE chance at a big acquisition......I'll be sorely disappointed, if it winds up being Julio flipping Teheran. We can, and WILL, do much better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Realistically, we have room to add one MAJOR starting pitcher between now and Opening Day next year. We've got Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks written in ink.

 

One of Monty, Butler, or any other "upside" play, ala Gausman, or those types, will be our 5th, with others providing depth.....

 

So, with our ONE chance at a big acquisition......I'll be sorely disappointed, if it winds up being Julio flipping Teheran. We can, and WILL, do much better.

 

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either.

[Cubswin11]

Since we should have some decent money and not much to spend on like TT said, I wouldn't mind taking a gamble on Pineda and giving him like a 1 year ~$8 mil deal with an option or 2. He could conceivably be back by ASBish time next year.

[davell]

Realistically, we have room to add one MAJOR starting pitcher between now and Opening Day next year. We've got Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks written in ink.

 

One of Monty, Butler, or any other "upside" play, ala Gausman, or those types, will be our 5th, with others providing depth.....

 

So, with our ONE chance at a big acquisition......I'll be sorely disappointed, if it winds up being Julio flipping Teheran. We can, and WILL, do much better.

 

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either.

 

I think it can add up fairly quickly. Let's say you buy a guy in FA, instead of adding Teheran.....That's probably an extra 5-10 mill in payroll. Darvish being the biggest target, that would cost more.....

 

You're going to need 3-4 bullpen arms, that's going to add up. Maybe 25-30 mill? More, if you keep Davis or trade for Britton.....

 

And you've at least got to look at a possibility of adding a CF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Realistically, we have room to add one MAJOR starting pitcher between now and Opening Day next year. We've got Lester, Quintana, and Hendricks written in ink.

 

One of Monty, Butler, or any other "upside" play, ala Gausman, or those types, will be our 5th, with others providing depth.....

 

So, with our ONE chance at a big acquisition......I'll be sorely disappointed, if it winds up being Julio flipping Teheran. We can, and WILL, do much better.

 

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either.

 

I think it can add up fairly quickly. Let's say you buy a guy in FA, instead of adding Teheran.....That's probably an extra 5-10 mill in payroll. Darvish being the biggest target, that would cost more.....

 

You're going to need 3-4 bullpen arms, that's going to add up. Maybe 25-30 mill? More, if you keep Davis or trade for Britton.....

 

And you've at least got to look at a possibility of adding a CF.

 

Quintana + Teheran + Darvish at 30M + 25-30M towards the bullpen is basically the same payroll as this year's team. Maybe you can't get a Jay replacement, but those bullpen estimates are probably high(Montgomery is in the pen in this scenario) and you've got several CF lying around(Happ, Almora, Heyward, maybe Burks) without dropping Jay-money on one.

 

Is that the path I think they'll go? No, but it's not all that elaborate a contortion either. Trading for Teheran wouldn't close any doors, unless there's a similar valued pitcher you like better that you can't trade for with a more depleted system.

[davell]

 

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either.

 

I think it can add up fairly quickly. Let's say you buy a guy in FA, instead of adding Teheran.....That's probably an extra 5-10 mill in payroll. Darvish being the biggest target, that would cost more.....

 

You're going to need 3-4 bullpen arms, that's going to add up. Maybe 25-30 mill? More, if you keep Davis or trade for Britton.....

 

And you've at least got to look at a possibility of adding a CF.

 

Quintana + Teheran + Darvish at 30M + 25-30M towards the bullpen is basically the same payroll as this year's team. Maybe you can't get a Jay replacement, but those bullpen estimates are probably high(Montgomery is in the pen in this scenario) and you've got several CF lying around(Happ, Almora, Heyward, maybe Burks) without dropping Jay-money on one.

 

Is that the path I think they'll go? No, but it's not all that elaborate a contortion either. Trading for Teheran wouldn't close any doors, unless there's a similar valued pitcher you like better that you can't trade for with a more depleted system.

 

I think there's a better chance of a NEED in CF. I can see us trading one of Javy/Schwarber/Russell/Happ+ in the off season for Archer/Stroman/Whoever..... Maybe adding Cain thru FA, in a scenario, like that....

 

Where are you getting Q+Teheran+Darvish is 30 mill? Are you subtracting Lackey/Arrieta from that or something?

 

I think the pen comes in at that range fairly easily personally....Again, Davis or Britton comes in at 15 on their own. And decent guys cost 5-7 mill apiece, to accentuate that with....

 

From quick math that may be a tad off, we're losing Jake, Lackey, Montero, Uehara, Davis, Anderson, Jay, Duensing, and Rondon probably gets non tendered.....That saves 80 mill from where we're at. Seal Boy and Grimm probably costs 3 mill next year combined, I figure they'll stick. KB, Russell, and Hendricks? I'll say they cost 22 mill next year.....Gives us 55 mill total to spend, in order to hit the current payroll.....

 

Obviously, back loading, whatever tricks can apply to pare payroll a bit....

 

But, if the 25-30 mill figure spent on the pen is correct, (we've just got Carl, Strop, Grimm, loser of Butler/Monty) then menial additions of a backup C, veteran OFer of some sort, 6th starter, that seem like things that'll get added....

 

It'd basically just give us Darvish money, unless we're really shaking up the roster, by trading one of the position guys, which puts things in an entirely different light obviously, with multitudes of scenarios.....

 

And yes, the payroll CAN go up. But, I don't really expect it to, because they'll want to save up some for Bryce or one of that group and the payroll skyrockets then.....And the FO will have to begin thinking about creativity with the LT, in the next year or two....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

30M was what I was saying for Darvish alone, Q and Teheran are locked in at 8.85 and 8 respectively.

 

Bryant + Russell + Hendricks are all arb 1, Bryant is the only one with a chance at 7 million.

 

This year's payroll isn't a hard ceiling either.

 

I'm not saying they'd fit it in with 15 million to spare, but by your own calculations they could fit a big addition in. They might have to sacrifice a platoon bat on the bench or maybe the quality of one reliever spot, but that's the tradeoff you make for a Lester/Darvish/Quintana/Hendricks/Teheran super-rotation.

[davell]

30M was what I was saying for Darvish alone, Q and Teheran are locked in at 8.85 and 8 respectively.

 

Bryant + Russell + Hendricks are all arb 1, Bryant is the only one with a chance at 7 million.

 

This year's payroll isn't a hard ceiling either.

 

I'm not saying they'd fit it in with 15 million to spare, but by your own calculations they could fit a big addition in. They might have to sacrifice a platoon bat on the bench or maybe the quality of one reliever spot, but that's the tradeoff you make for a Lester/Darvish/Quintana/Hendricks/Teheran super-rotation.

 

I'm setting KB at 12, Addy and Hendricks at 5 each. We'll see what happens, but I think I'm actually slightly UNDER selling what those 3 get.

[Tryptamine]

30M was what I was saying for Darvish alone, Q and Teheran are locked in at 8.85 and 8 respectively.

 

Bryant + Russell + Hendricks are all arb 1, Bryant is the only one with a chance at 7 million.

 

This year's payroll isn't a hard ceiling either.

 

I'm not saying they'd fit it in with 15 million to spare, but by your own calculations they could fit a big addition in. They might have to sacrifice a platoon bat on the bench or maybe the quality of one reliever spot, but that's the tradeoff you make for a Lester/Darvish/Quintana/Hendricks/Teheran super-rotation.

 

I'm setting KB at 12, Addy and Hendricks at 5 each. We'll see what happens, but I think I'm actually slightly UNDER selling what those 3 get.

 

If I remember correctly, David Price holds the record for arb price at 20M and that was an arb 4 after winning CY. So something like 12M,16M,20M,24M over Bryant's arb years looks right.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

30M was what I was saying for Darvish alone, Q and Teheran are locked in at 8.85 and 8 respectively.

 

Bryant + Russell + Hendricks are all arb 1, Bryant is the only one with a chance at 7 million.

 

This year's payroll isn't a hard ceiling either.

 

I'm not saying they'd fit it in with 15 million to spare, but by your own calculations they could fit a big addition in. They might have to sacrifice a platoon bat on the bench or maybe the quality of one reliever spot, but that's the tradeoff you make for a Lester/Darvish/Quintana/Hendricks/Teheran super-rotation.

 

I'm setting KB at 12, Addy and Hendricks at 5 each. We'll see what happens, but I think I'm actually slightly UNDER selling what those 3 get.

 

If I remember correctly, David Price holds the record for arb price at 20M and that was an arb 4 after winning CY. So something like 12M,16M,20M,24M over Bryant's arb years looks right.

 

Price got 4.3 million as a super two. That was 5 years ago, but the point is it doesn't scale linearly.

[davell]

I know i don't know the exacts of how to calculate this, not sure if any of us do.....But, KB has Boras, a ROY award, an MVP award, and a ring(which doesn't matter, but still).

 

I'm guessing 12, because I'll be shocked if he's not the highest paid 1st year arb guy in history.

[Cubswin11]

Looks like Gray had another good start today. 6.1IP 7H 2ER 2BB 6K.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wittenmyer casually mentioned the Cubs 'kicking the tires' on Samardzija, which is the first time I'd seen his name with the Cubs in a while. I continue to think it's a longshot he's traded at all, but he's another in a list of guys who I like a lot more as targets with Quintana in the fold.

[Cubswin11]

Wittenmyer casually mentioned the Cubs 'kicking the tires' on Samardzija, which is the first time I'd seen his name with the Cubs in a while. I continue to think it's a longshot he's traded at all, but he's another in a list of guys who I like a lot more as targets with Quintana in the fold.

He's a pretty solid target in my opinion if all it takes is minor leaguers like Jeimer and Alzolay

[David]

Wittenmyer casually mentioned the Cubs 'kicking the tires' on Samardzija, which is the first time I'd seen his name with the Cubs in a while. I continue to think it's a longshot he's traded at all, but he's another in a list of guys who I like a lot more as targets with Quintana in the fold.

He's a pretty solid target in my opinion if all it takes is minor leaguers like Jeimer and Alzolay

 

i would do that trade yesterday

[davell]

Yeah, the systems at the point where you might as well just say, take any group of 2,3,4, or 5 and see what the best guy you can get in each scenario and make the best deal accordingly.

[Bote McBoteface]

So how about Brad Hand? Under control until 2020 and he's been solid since he moved to the bullpen. What would it take? Apparently they asked the yankees for Gleybor Torres :shock:

[David]

So how about Brad Hand? Under control until 2020 and he's been solid since he moved to the bullpen. What would it take? Apparently they asked the yankees for Gleybor Torres :shock:

Wtf do we need a bullpen arm for

[Bobson Dugnutt]

So how about Brad Hand? Under control until 2020 and he's been solid since he moved to the bullpen. What would it take? Apparently they asked the yankees for Gleybor Torres :shock:

Wtf do we need a bullpen arm for

 

I was really into the idea of a reliever, but if Rondon is actually good again and Monty is ticketed to go back to the pen, it's not really much of a need.