Starting Pitching candidates

[Tedward]

The Mets are selling. I saw Ryan Davis bring up deGrom and wondered what it'd take to get him.....He didn't think he'd actually be available, but threw out Eloy, Cease, Candelario, and one other guy(unnamed) as a fictitional package....Personally, I doubt that'd come close honestly, since there's no real reason for them to move him. But, its an interesting thought anyway.

 

This is Jacob deGrom we're talking about, right?

 

Uh yeah. Is he illegal to bring up or something in your opinion?

 

Evidently he is, I brought his name up

Earlier in the thread & got stones thrown at me for bringing his name into the conversation, lol

[Cubswin11]

That's a ridiculous package to give up for deGrom

[davell]

That's a ridiculous package to give up for deGrom

 

Why is that? People are talking about giving up Eloy in a Sonny Gray package here. You don't think that's 1 for 1, do you?

 

Since 2014, Gray has thrown 601 innings, to 568 for deGrom. Gray has been worth 8.5/8.7 WAR between FG and BR. DeGrom is at 13.6/13.2 over the same time. And deGrom has an extra year of control. Pitching costs.

[cubsclapp]

That's a ridiculous package to give up for deGrom

 

Why is that? People are talking about giving up Eloy in a Sonny Gray package here. You don't think that's 1 for 1, do you?

 

Since 2014, Gray has thrown 601 innings, to 568 for deGrom. Gray has been worth 8.5/8.7 WAR between FG and BR. DeGrom is at 13.6/13.2 over the same time. And deGrom has an extra year of control. Pitching costs.

 

I spent a good half hour of my life looking into that idea before your post.

 

It just seems (extra) unlikely for a couple reasons.

 

1. It's hard to see the Mets blowing up their plan quite yet, even if how it's going is hardly surprising to any of us given that arms break. They're paying Cespedes $29.5 through 2020, and, when healthy, Noah Syndergaard is one of the top-five pitchers in baseball and should be treated like he's in his prime these years. Would they really just say screw it and rebuild (even if perhaps they should)?

 

2. deGrom is 29, has had Tommy John, has only thrown at least 150 innings in the majors once, and you'd "only" get him for 3 more seasons (3.5 if you do it before the deadline). Do we want to give up Eloy and company for 3 years of an aging pitcher with a bad health and durability history? And we're then talking about him being a 33-year-old free agent at the same time the Cubs will be trying to lock up so many of their (other) own guys, so it's unlikely they keep him longer than the current contract. You'd at least like to feel good about the possibility of keeping a guy you acquire longer than the current team control.

 

He's very intriguing and definitely worth looking into, but probably too many roadblocks to be all that realistic.

[davell]

I don't think it'd be easy for the Mets to pull the plug on their pitching. They'll likely go down with the ship. I thought the package was interesting, because that was less than what I figured it take for them to pull the trigger on a deal. I don't truly feel comfortable giving up Eloy for anyone,(but we probably will have to at some point)however Cease, Candelario and basically ANY other prospect in the system(other than Amaya) isn't very scary at all.

 

DeGrom has a scary history, but he is VERY good. He's not likely to be the type we'd go after, he's not likely to be available for that package, IMO either. There are teams that'd pay up quite a bit for him.

[davell]

I don't think it'd be easy for the Mets to pull the plug on their pitching. They'll likely go down with the ship. I thought the package was interesting, because that was less than what I figured it take for them to pull the trigger on a deal. I don't truly feel comfortable giving up Eloy for anyone,(but we probably will have to at some point)however Cease, Candelario and basically ANY other prospect in the system(other than Amaya) isn't very scary at all.

 

DeGrom has a scary history, but he is VERY good. He's not likely to be the type we'd go after, he's not likely to be available for that package, IMO either. There are teams that'd pay up quite a bit for him.

 

Is this hinting that a 29 YO DeGrom, 7 years removed from TJ surgery too, is a possible steal at that price? Woof

 

No, that's you being you. I wanted a discussion that Clapp happily provided. You, on the other hand, act as you always do. Back to ignoring your insanity.

[Cubswin11]

That's a ridiculous package to give up for deGrom

 

Why is that? People are talking about giving up Eloy in a Sonny Gray package here. You don't think that's 1 for 1, do you?

 

Since 2014, Gray has thrown 601 innings, to 568 for deGrom. Gray has been worth 8.5/8.7 WAR between FG and BR. DeGrom is at 13.6/13.2 over the same time. And deGrom has an extra year of control. Pitching costs.

I do not agree with giving up Eloy for Gray or deGrom, if people want to talk about that or think that's fair, great. Either way that's awful value/risk taking in my opinion.

Edited June 25, 2017 by Cubswin11

[Bobson Dugnutt]

The Mets are selling. I saw Ryan Davis bring up deGrom and wondered what it'd take to get him.....He didn't think he'd actually be available, but threw out Eloy, Cease, Candelario, and one other guy(unnamed) as a fictitional package....Personally, I doubt that'd come close honestly, since there's no real reason for them to move him. But, its an interesting thought anyway.

 

This is Jacob deGrom we're talking about, right?

 

Uh yeah. Is he illegal to bring up or something in your opinion?

 

no, of course not. cw11, tom, & clapp have already pretty much covered the reasons to be concerned. but given his injury history, don't you think we could find a better return than deGrom if we're sending out maybe our two most attractive (prospect) trade chips? I get that pitching costs, but if that's the cost, I'd rather hope for some more savvy moves like vogelbach for Montgomery. deGrom just seems wayyyyy too risky to give up such valuable assets for.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

That's a ridiculous package to give up for deGrom

 

Why is that? People are talking about giving up Eloy in a Sonny Gray package here. You don't think that's 1 for 1, do you?

 

Since 2014, Gray has thrown 601 innings, to 568 for deGrom. Gray has been worth 8.5/8.7 WAR between FG and BR. DeGrom is at 13.6/13.2 over the same time. And deGrom has an extra year of control. Pitching costs.

I do not agree with giving up Eloy for Gray, if people want to talk about that or think that's fair, great. Either way that's awful value/risk taking in my opinion.

 

Right, I wouldn't do Eloy for Gray, and deGrom's got more red flags than gray, so I absolutely am not trading Eloy for deGrom.

[Cubswin11]

I'd honestly rather trade Jeimer to bring Hammel back than do anything involving Eloy that isn't a Archer package.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I'd honestly rather trade Jeimer to bring Hammel back than do anything involving Eloy that isn't a Archer package.

 

Maybe I'm seriously overvaluing him, but I'm having a hard time coming up with anyone aside from Archer and Stroman (of even remotely plausible trade options) that I'd be interested in trading Eloy for.

[davell]

The reason I even brought deGrom up was he obviously is a very good pitcher. Hell, he's been better than Archer(albeit not as healthy and much more of a risk)and much better than Gray.

 

I was debating whether its worth giving up THAT package for him, because I don't think that package comes even remotely close to landing Archer. I don't think it'd get deGrom either, with the Mets expecting(probably wrongly) to get healthy(lol) and contend again next year.

 

The reason it was interesting to me is I figure you probably DO have to send Eloy to Oakland for Gray. That's a definitive no for me. Gray isn't good enough. deGrom IS good enough, he's just got the red flags around him(as does Gray) It'd be a huge risk. But, its something I'd have to consider.(again, I doubt the FO would and I really doubt the Mets would)

 

I've advocated for Gray quite a bit actually. If you can get him for a package led by Cease, probably with 2 of Zagunis, Caratini, or Candelario.....Fine. But, I'm not dealing Eloy, Happ, Javy, or Schwarber in a deal for him.

 

The reason I'd even consider deGrom though, is because my honest guess is it'd take Eloy, Happ, AND Cease to get Tampa to sell Archer off at this stage. He's healthy, he's really good, and he's on a bargain basement deal. And Tampa can't afford to rebuild, with their attendance problems, so my guess is they'd want an insane package for him.

 

My inner debate is do you give up THAT much for Archer, take deGrom at that package and the risk that goes with it, or just settle for a much lesser pitcher?

 

At the deadline, my honest guess is we settle for a much lesser pitcher, probably a rental. I'd LOVE to find another Montgomery type move, I'll probably scan teams tomorrow to see if there's any of those types out there.

 

But, we're going to need 2 guys in the off season. My guess is one signing and one trade, unless we trade for an unknown cost controlled option at the deadline.

 

Again, deGrom is really good. The risk is real though. I'd consider a package like THAT for him though, if the price for Archer is as much as I think it will be. I'd take Gray over either, IF he can be had for a Cease led package.

 

But, since we won the WS last year, adding a Hammel type and hoping for the best in the playoffs is probably the way I'd wind up veering towards, as CW11 said.

[cubsclapp]

Happ would be a no go for me right now whatever the case.

 

They need him right now (and even if his OPS drops 200 points, he can still help them a lot). Hell he's already 4th among their position players in fWAR. He can play 4 positions (probably 3B and 1B if he had to as well), he switch-hits and you can comfortably use him vs any arm side, and he slots anywhere into the lineup.

 

We also don't know how good/healthy Zobrist is going to be the rest of the year (hopefully an .800+ OPS bat, but who knows), we don't know anything with Schwarber, Baez is much worse vs right-handed pitching, and Almora is probably a .700 OPS hitter -- and stinks vs righties -- that the metrics so far think is pretty blah in CF.

 

If we're in this situation still in the offseason, maybe you include Happ in a deal like this. Offer the Rays Eloy/Cease/Candelario/other decent prospect over the next month, but no on Happ (in my opinion).

 

And if the asking prices are really this insane, consider short-term guys like Marco Estrada, JA Happ, Jason Vargas, and even like Cahill and Richard. If they went that route, they could also look to upgrade the position players and go after rentals like Lorenzo Cain or Cameron Maybin. If the price for Archer, Gray, _ good cost-controlled guy is really that bonkers, add a couple nice rentals to improve this current team and still be able to hang on to Eloy, Happ, and Cease (although someone like Cain may require a prospect like Cease). Then address the cost-controlled starter in the offseason.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I've been on the Cahill/Hand wagon for about a month. If Trevor proves healthy I think he's a perfect fit. Tons of grounders and whiffs and in the playoffs he could be our long guy, unless they actually leave Lackey off the PS roster, which I'm not sold they will (pitching better, experienced, loyalty).

 

I really dont think they wish to deal Eloy or Cease so I'm thinking they will scour that secondary market at the deadline.

[champaignchris]

If the Mets are selling and want to balance out their core, trading starting pitching for hitting prospects, is there a guy you go after?

 

De Grom's worrisome health has been covered. Regardless of how the lat heals, Syndergaard looks like he has a ticking time bomb for a right arm and has demonstrated a less than cooperative attitude towards trainers. Harvey looks washed up. Wheeler missed two seasons and then just got hurt again, and might not be any good. Matz (who I really like) is five (?) years post TJS, just had elbow surgery again in the offseason, and has never pitched more than 140 innings in his professional career. Gsellman and Lugo probably aren't any good.

 

Is there anyone there you trade a decent prospect for and then feel good about yourself?

[Tryptamine]

The Mets seem like they can just create good pitching prospect after good pitching prospect. Give me Jordan Humphreys please.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Multiple Cubs personnel were at Sonny Gray's last start:

San Francisco Chronicle[/url]"]Scouting Gray: Among the clubs with multiple executives and scouts at Gray’s start Sunday were the Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners and Braves, while the Red Sox had one scout there. Some non-contenders looking ahead to next year have interest in Gray because he has two more years of team control.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Russell for Gray!

[David]

horsefeathering trade for samardzija already

[CaliforniaRaisin]

horsefeathering trade for samardzija already

 

I fail to see why the Giants would be interested in trading him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm coming around on Gray a bit, mostly because with only 2+ years instead of 3+ for names like Archer, Stroman, Quintana plus the arm worry you're likely looking at a less extravagant player cost. Especially since Oakland is more likely than average to value guys like Candelario/Caratini/Zagunis, I wonder if they could pull it off with Cease as a headliner and not touching the MLB roster.

[We Got The Whole 9]

horsefeathering trade for samardzija already

 

I fail to see why the Giants would be interested in trading him.

Well, FWIW, their GM named only Bum, Posey, and Crawford as their "true untouchables".

[Bote McBoteface]

I want a dominant lefty for the bullpen almost as much as i want a starter. That Duensing/Harper matchup scared me enough last night, it would really scare me if it happened in the playoffs. In the playoffs Montgomery would have been there, but itd be real nice if Montgomery was the number 2 lefty option in the playoff bullpen and Duensing wasnt on the playoff roster.

 

I think Gray/Doolittle is the best we can do unless we start getting real creative with 3 or 4 team trades.

[davell]

Gray AND Doolittle, with Eloy involved, would make sense in lots of ways. Even though they're aren't many deals with multiple major pieces involved, going to the buyer.....Billy was on the opposite side of a deal like this with us very recently.

 

We took one elite prospect in return for two starting pitchers. There was McKinney and Straily too, that were lesser pieces, but still valuable. I'll try to compare the deals.....

 

Sonny Gray has an extra year of control than Shark did. Injury-prone, but probably more upside than what Shark was still considered to have at that stage? I don't know. Cancelling out the injury issues, with the extra year though, I'd say those two were at least in the same general value range.....

 

Jason Hammel was pitching well, but was a rental. Its hard to compare his value to Doolittle. Hell, its really hard to value Doolittle, by himself. He's got 3 and a half years of control left. 3/16.85 after this season, and 2 of those years are team options even. He was really, really horsefeathering good a few years ago. But 2015 saw him throw just a handful of innings. 2016 saw him throw 60% of a season or so. And now, he's started this season late, but in his handful of innings, he's been dominant.....

 

So, how do you value him? He's worth more than Hammel. Probably by far, considering good relievers prices.....And he's pitching his ass off right now, so they're selling high on him. Plus, he's got 3 years of control.

 

So, on that side of the trade, I'd say Gray and Doolittle have a solid amount of value more than Shark and Hammel did. But, with Doolittle, its really hard to gauge, because teams desperate for relief, like Washington, may blow everyone else out of the water, for a guy like him.....

 

On the prospects side, the headliners would be Russell vs Eloy. Russell was probably a top 5 guy, while Eloy is probably a top 10 type, at this stage. Plus, Addy was a middle of the diamond guy, so even if you valued the difference from 5 to 10 as negligible, I'd say that positional value gives Addy at least a slight edge here in headliners.....

 

So now, if you're going for equal type of packages.....We want MORE than what Oakland wanted from us a few years ago. And our lead piece is slightly less than what theirs was too.

 

However, this CAN be made up. McKinney was Oakland's 2nd best prospect and we got him in the Shark deal. Is Cease considered a better prospect than him? I'd say so. Probably enough of a difference between them to make Eloy/Cease as valuable as Addy/McKinney....

 

Straily was a borderline throw in, but had potential. He had been struggling in the majors, I'd say he was probably valued about like Eddie Butler honestly, when we acquired him. I don't think we'd deal Butler right now, as we still need depth.(we could, but we'd still need to go get more). Alec Mills? Same value as Straily, at that point? Sure, why not? I'll assume his current injury is still not arm related. He came back from his ankle injury for one outing, then got DL'd again.

 

So, in my mind, Eloy/Cease/Mills is even to Addy/McKinney/Straily.....

 

The issue now though is quantifying Doolittle's value over Hammel's. Unfortunately, that's hard to do. But, I'll say its a pretty solid amount, because he's pitching his ass off right now and the team control attached.....

 

Caratini, one of Candelario or Zagunis, and one of Hatch or Alzolay? Too much? I'd typically agree. Get rid of Mills, hes not needed now. But, I think Doolittle on his own is going to fetch quite a package, in this market. And to get the pair, its going to cost a bit extra.....

 

Kind of goes back to TT asking about trying to find the middle ground on packages like this, getting 2 good players....The Nats could get nutty and offer Robles for Doolittle. It wouldn't shock me. If so, there's no reason for them to deal both to us. They can move Gray to Houston, with Martes or Tucker as the lead piece, unless we do Eloy in a deal for just Gray. And come out with Robles and one of them, which beats Eloy and Cease considerably, at the top end, for us to move grab the pair of those guys.....

 

So, in my opinion, what it'd TAKE to get Gray and Doolittle in the same deal is Eloy, Cease, Caratini, one of Zagunis or Candelario, and one of Alzolay or Hatch.

 

I'm not condoning it. Just saying this is what I'd expect them to cost. High price? Sure is. Risky? Sure is.

 

And if the Nats or some other team is looking for pen help, its very likely they can offer up a guy who's clearly a top 50 guy and ruin any shot of getting both anyway. Because there's not enough difference between Eloy and a Kyle Tucker or Clint Frazier to where it'd make sense for them to trade both to us.

 

Lots of rambling in this, trying to get to a conclusion.....Its going to really horsefeathering hurt to try to get them both, is the bottom line. And it'll be hard as hell to accomplish too, due to different teams needs.....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would argue that Eloy + Cease > Russell + McKinney (or more specifically, Eloy = Russell and Cease > McKinney). Doolittle is a non-trivial addition, and he does have the potential to be a bullpen fixture for 3.5 years, but he's also had repeated injury worries and turns 31 before this season is over. If I'm giving up 1-2 in the system(considering Happ graduated) then I don't think that's what I want in return, even if it's not necessarily an unfair ask. I would very much like to see a decisive move for a SP, but emptying the farm of the guys who have truly high ceilings and getting that much injury risk back in return goes too far for me.