Starting Pitching candidates

[toonsterwu]

Cease is high reward, but he's also very high risk. If he can be viewed as a centerpiece by another team, then we should get much more certain value for him. I obviously would only include any of our high end prospects in the right deals, but I'd much rather part with Cease than someone like Happ or Eloy.

 

My thinking is sort of down the middle right now. At this juncture in the team's development, we have to develop some arms at some point. It's simply hard to continually buy (or trade for) arms, and as risky as arm development is, you have to roll the dice at some point on some guys. This is the right point, with our young core in place, to allow for a chance for some pitcher development.

 

Again, not saying i wouldn't move Cease in a package for at all, but there's very few trades I would even remotely consider moving him right now. It'd basically have to be a relatively top young arm, entering or at the start of his prime, and still cost-controlled.

 

Anyhow, reason I say I'm in the middle, Eloy's in a level by himself, particularly with his hot start. I'd part with Happ over Cease, though. I like Happ, don't love him, think he can be a quality starter but not sure if he's really made the significant jumps from last year that his early run so far has suggested. Actually, you want to talk about a guy that feels like he's tailor made for Oakland - Happ feels like it if they move him back to the corner OF. They've never really deviated from buying cost-controlled power.

[toonsterwu]

A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it.

 

Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.

 

This is a very different point from the Cubs not being able to put together a package at all. Of course there will be competition, but the vast majority of better systems are with bad teams so we're dealing with not even a handful. From there even fewer will have the motivation to actually make a big trade, whereas the Cubs are losing a TOR pitcher + at least another starter this offseason. From there if the Cubs were to offer a Baez or Almora with Jimenez I would imagine there is no team matching that up top. That's a cheap, young MLer a selling/bad team can slide right into their lineups plus a top prospect with whatever else.

 

----

 

There's zero shot at Cease being the center of a trade for a SP, but that's fine.

 

Just speaking hypothetically because I have some time on my hand right now, but I can think of a handful of teams that might be able to compete close enough with some sort of Almora/Baez and JImenez package up top, and have depth pull it out. It'd come down to what teams are looking for.

Actually, I really don't see the Cubs moving Almora at all. Baez maybe, but I think they like Almora too much and he's "their guy" after all (not that I think being their guy would influence things if they liked a deal).

 

Astros - To my own surprise, Derek Fisher has been better than I thought, and he's basically ready for a look. If a team's looking for arm talent in return, and the Astros go shopping for a starter, the ability to toss in a Francis Martes (still intriguing despite his command struggles so far) or the guy I like better, David Paulino, would be a factor. Sure, Baez/Jimenez is "better" on some generalized value assessment, but a possible starting corner OF and some intriguing, good ceiling, high level arms is close enough.

 

Red Sox - Dombrowski not making a big trade would shock. I don't think they should move him, and if they did, I think it'd be for pitching, but Rafael Devers is looking really excellent and closer to being ready than I thought. Pair him with say, Sam Travis, and that's a nice power combination for some small market team.

 

Indians - I really don't expect the Indians to go after pitching, but if they did, the best backstop in the minors (IMO) in Mejia (prefer him to Kelly) and someone like Triston McKenzie ... that'd be a tantalizing package, although it would be a total win now move thinning out the system.

 

Brewers - if they manage to stick around, they have the system to pull of a big trade easily.

 

Yankees - There seems to be some rumor-mongering that they would consider moving Clint Frazier in a deal, and with Gleyber in the system, Jorge Mateo could be shopped, and there's quality arms.

 

Cardinals - If they really opted to shop for an arm, being able to dangle Carson Kelly in a trade means they could mix and match with the rest of the system.

 

Yes, Baez/Eloy sounds great, and if it's just a two man deal, it'd be a tough one to crack but there are teams that can come close enough to match and it would come down to what the selling team prefers/was looking for.

 

_____

[Tedward]

Ok, I'll throw a new name out there that hasn't been mentioned yet in the thread. The New York Mets are a dumpster fire right now. Their direction for ROS is a bit murky, but I wonder if Alderson will sell at the trade deadline. If so, I'd inquire about what it would take to get ...

Jacob deGrom. He'd be quite expensive due to the remaining team control, but I'd at least inquire about his availability.

[davell]

A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it.

 

Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.

 

This is a very different point from the Cubs not being able to put together a package at all. Of course there will be competition, but the vast majority of better systems are with bad teams so we're dealing with not even a handful. From there even fewer will have the motivation to actually make a big trade, whereas the Cubs are losing a TOR pitcher + at least another starter this offseason. From there if the Cubs were to offer a Baez or Almora with Jimenez I would imagine there is no team matching that up top. That's a cheap, young MLer a selling/bad team can slide right into their lineups plus a top prospect with whatever else.

 

----

 

There's zero shot at Cease being the center of a trade for a SP, but that's fine.

 

Just speaking hypothetically because I have some time on my hand right now, but I can think of a handful of teams that might be able to compete close enough with some sort of Almora/Baez and JImenez package up top, and have depth pull it out. It'd come down to what teams are looking for.

Actually, I really don't see the Cubs moving Almora at all. Baez maybe, but I think they like Almora too much and he's "their guy" after all (not that I think being their guy would influence things if they liked a deal).

 

Astros - To my own surprise, Derek Fisher has been better than I thought, and he's basically ready for a look. If a team's looking for arm talent in return, and the Astros go shopping for a starter, the ability to toss in a Francis Martes (still intriguing despite his command struggles so far) or the guy I like better, David Paulino, would be a factor. Sure, Baez/Jimenez is "better" on some generalized value assessment, but a possible starting corner OF and some intriguing, good ceiling, high level arms is close enough.

 

Red Sox - Dombrowski not making a big trade would shock. I don't think they should move him, and if they did, I think it'd be for pitching, but Rafael Devers is looking really excellent and closer to being ready than I thought. Pair him with say, Sam Travis, and that's a nice power combination for some small market team.

 

Indians - I really don't expect the Indians to go after pitching, but if they did, the best backstop in the minors (IMO) in Mejia (prefer him to Kelly) and someone like Triston McKenzie ... that'd be a tantalizing package, although it would be a total win now move thinning out the system.

 

Brewers - if they manage to stick around, they have the system to pull of a big trade easily.

 

Yankees - There seems to be some rumor-mongering that they would consider moving Clint Frazier in a deal, and with Gleyber in the system, Jorge Mateo could be shopped, and there's quality arms.

 

Cardinals - If they really opted to shop for an arm, being able to dangle Carson Kelly in a trade means they could mix and match with the rest of the system.

 

Yes, Baez/Eloy sounds great, and if it's just a two man deal, it'd be a tough one to crack but there are teams that can come close enough to match and it would come down to what the selling team prefers/was looking for.

 

_____

 

I really don't see us moving Javy, because of the D and the still untapped upside hitting too. Been into that numerous times though and some will disagree.

 

Either way, those packages literally don't come close to competing with Javy/Eloy. And we have the Jeimers, Zagunises, and Caratinis of the world to bump up the total value of a package considerably. If we decide we WANT a guy, we'll get him. No doubt in my mind, to be honest.

 

Eloy as a lead piece is as valuable or more so than anyone else's

Javy/Happ/Schwarber is MORE valuable than anyone else's 2nd piece

3rd/4th pieces of Caratini, Zagunis, Candelario, Clifton are just as valuable or more than what other teams are likely to send as their 3rd/4th types

 

I still doubt we go "all in" for that type personally. But if we want to, we can and will grab one. No doubt in my mind.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Brewers are not going to empty their system for a SP, and if Carson Kelly is the selling point for a TOR starter, then the Cubs have no shortage of guys to counter with.

 

The Red Sox have pieces but Devers also is like a week from being their starting 3B. If the starter is in the AL East anyway(and a disproportionate number of targets are) then the Red Sox and Yankees are pretty unlikely too.

 

That doesn't mean that the Cubs will be able to leverage some seller into giving away a real good SP, but "I'm not sure if the Cubs have the pieces" is not a serious argument.

[Cubswin11]

Ok, I'll throw a new name out there that hasn't been mentioned yet in the thread. The New York Mets are a dumpster fire right now. Their direction for ROS is a bit murky, but I wonder if Alderson will sell at the trade deadline. If so, I'd inquire about what it would take to get ...

Jacob deGrom. He'd be quite expensive due to the remaining team control, but I'd at least inquire about his availability.

I have no want for that dirty, injury riddled hippie. Especially for the cost.

[Post Count Padder]

Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?

 

Poor Tommy would never be able to leave AAA

=D>

 

Shut it down.

[Post Count Padder]

My friend who's a Phillies fan is convinced someone is gonna give them a couple of really good prospects for Jeremy Hellickson.

 

Hellickson has a 3.6 (!) K/9 this year. Yesterday he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks through 5 innings and now has a 5.49 FIP.

 

Probably should keep dreaming, buddy. Really surprised the Phillies didn't trade him last year at the deadline.

[d_money]

Ok, I'll throw a new name out there that hasn't been mentioned yet in the thread. The New York Mets are a dumpster fire right now. Their direction for ROS is a bit murky, but I wonder if Alderson will sell at the trade deadline. If so, I'd inquire about what it would take to get ...

Jacob deGrom. He'd be quite expensive due to the remaining team control, but I'd at least inquire about his availability.

I have no want for that dirty, injury riddled hippie. Especially for the cost.

Every time I see his hair, it reminds me of the comedian Gallagher. So, for that alone - no thanks.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Man horsefeathers it

 

Get Cahill back. Slightly damaged goods, maybe we get a discount. Tons of strikeouts and grounders. Plenty versatile.

[Tryptamine]

Man horsefeathers it

 

Get Cahill back. Slightly damaged goods, maybe we get a discount. Tons of strikeouts and grounders. Plenty versatile.

 

Shoulder injury at the moment.

[Guest]

I thought Jacob deGrom was young, but he's old as dirt and got hair on his tongue, degrom.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Man horsefeathers it

 

Get Cahill back. Slightly damaged goods, maybe we get a discount. Tons of strikeouts and grounders. Plenty versatile.

 

Shoulder injury at the moment.

Hence the slightly damaged goods. But they found no structural damage. I would still take the shot.

[davell]

I thought Jacob deGrom was young, but he's old as dirt and got hair on his tongue, degrom.

 

Pretty sure his mom has a peg leg with a kick stand.

[Donzo]

Gotta think you could get something done with the Rays. Besides their already good staff on the MLB roster, this is their staff at AAA:

 

• Blake Snell
  Brent Honeywell
  Jose Deleon
  Jacob Faria
  Taylor Guerrieri

 

They gotta trade some pitching, they just gotta.

[Cubswin11]

Gotta think you could get something done with the Rays. Besides their already good staff on the MLB roster, this is their staff at AAA:

 

• Blake Snell
  Brent Honeywell
  Jose Deleon
  Jacob Faria
  Taylor Guerrieri

 

They gotta trade some pitching, they just gotta.

I forgot what/who I was listening to or reading, they basically said the Rays are incredibly hard to deal with and they didn't see the Cubs doing anything with them for a number of reasons.

[davell]

Gotta think you could get something done with the Rays. Besides their already good staff on the MLB roster, this is their staff at AAA:

 

• Blake Snell
  Brent Honeywell
  Jose Deleon
  Jacob Faria
  Taylor Guerrieri

 

They gotta trade some pitching, they just gotta.

I forgot what/who I was listening to or reading, they basically said the Rays are incredibly hard to deal with and they didn't see the Cubs doing anything with them for a number of reasons.

 

According to Heyman, they've been holding Maddon against us. Wondered if they still are.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

According to Heyman, they've been holding Maddon against us.

did we say he had a beautiful body?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Gotta think you could get something done with the Rays. Besides their already good staff on the MLB roster, this is their staff at AAA:

 

• Blake Snell
  Brent Honeywell
  Jose Deleon
  Jacob Faria
  Taylor Guerrieri

 

They gotta trade some pitching, they just gotta.

I forgot what/who I was listening to or reading, they basically said the Rays are incredibly hard to deal with and they didn't see the Cubs doing anything with them for a number of reasons.

 

According to Heyman, they've been holding Maddon against us. Wondered if they still are.

 

Great work on their part. It sure brought this whole organization down.

[biittner77]

The Rays were hard to deal with even before Maddon. They likely always will be since they can't afford to pay very many star players so they pretty much have to get max value out of any trade they make.

[Tryptamine]

Didn't they ask for something absurd like Javy +2 or 3 more good prospects in return for Odorizzi or Moore?

[davell]

My guess at the best guys who actually get moved this deadline.....

 

1. Jose Quintana

2. Sonny Gray

3. Marco Estrada

4. Alex Cobb

5. Jason Vargas

6. Derek Holland

7. Jaime Garcia

8. Scott Feldman

9. Trevor Cahill

10. Jeremy Hellickson

 

I really hope we can find a way to get Gray. At this point though, I'd say my "quantity" idea is out the window. But I could see Happ being able to lead the deal, even if I don't want to trade him.

 

That said, with Happ helping currently, even if he is a lesser piece than Eloy.....Would you rather trade Happ or Eloy, if it comes down to one or the other? And if it took BOTH, would you do it?

[toonsterwu]

I'd trade Happ over Eloy in a second. We can afford to gamble on potential, and I'm not convinced yet that Happ had made major jumps from what he was. Eloy, if he pans out, is a higher level talent than Happ, and worth the short term gamble.

 

Two names to throw in there (may have been mentioned) dependent on how their teams do ...

 

a) Yu Darvish - An impending FA, if Texas falls out, I could really see them move him to replenish a system that's been thinned out badly.

 

b) Felix Hernandez - There's a lot of money left, but he's aging, and if Seattle falls out, now that they finally have a young ace in Paxton after the struggles with Hultzen/Walker, I wonder if they might move Felix. Of course, he needs to pitch well. If they ate a lot of money, it'd be at least a thought.

 

I'm not against trading BOTH guys ... but I can't think of many names I would do that for. It'd have to be a guy in his prime, and still cost-controlled in some fashion (whether it be through arbitration or contract).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

My guess at the best guys who actually get moved this deadline.....

 

1. Jose Quintana

2. Sonny Gray

3. Marco Estrada

4. Alex Cobb

5. Jason Vargas

6. Derek Holland

7. Jaime Garcia

8. Scott Feldman

9. Trevor Cahill

10. Jeremy Hellickson

 

I really hope we can find a way to get Gray. At this point though, I'd say my "quantity" idea is out the window. But I could see Happ being able to lead the deal, even if I don't want to trade him.

 

That said, with Happ helping currently, even if he is a lesser piece than Eloy.....Would you rather trade Happ or Eloy, if it comes down to one or the other? And if it took BOTH, would you do it?

 

I'd rather trade Happ than Eloy any day of the week.

[Donzo]

Hopefully neither one... Hopefully the Cubs can wait until the off season to trade players for pitchers, then a lot of guys would be available.