Starting Pitching candidates

[Guancous]

Looks like we'll be rooting for an Astros 4 game sweep this weekend.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

At this point, if they don't end up with Stroman or Archer I will be very sad.

 

Prepare to be sad. There's probably a 5% chance either gets traded and teams like the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees will probably have better offers.

[Sammy Sofa]

At this point, if they don't end up with Stroman or Archer I will be very sad.

 

Prepare to be sad.

 

That's already written on the ceiling so it's the first thing I see when I wake up.

[David]

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is probably a good time to bring up that the Cubs have a LOT of money freed up after this season. In starting pitchers alone(Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson) it's 35 million, plus Montero's 14 million, and upwards of 25 million in relievers(Davis, Uehara, Duensing, probably Rondon). The relievers will mostly need legit replacements, but given that there isn't much worth spending on in free agency, taking on a high dollar short term deal like Verlander's would potentially fit really well if it means the player cost is minimal.

 

The complicating factor is that depending on how the calculation is done, adding Verlander might push the Cubs over the luxury tax, which is a non-trivial problem in the new CBA.

[Cubswin11]

Get it done Ricketts/Theo

 

http://68.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m96ryn75bK1qd9agqo3_500.gif

[David]

i'm just terrified of how bad verlander has been this year

 

this isn't some "yeah his era is bad but look at his peripherals" thing

 

more like "yeah all his numbers suck but his stuff looks great" which is way less comforting

Edited July 7, 2017 by David

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

[Tim]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

His wife is hot, so he's got that going for him. Which is nice.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

 

Verlander's WAR per 32 starts:

 

2017: 2.5

2016: 4.9

2015: 4.6

2014: 2.9

2013: 4.6

2012: 6.6

2011: 6.0

2010: 6.1

[Cubswin11]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

Under the assumption Archer/Stroman aren't available outside of a godfather offer and Gray requires Eloy+ I'm all just for using our money and like Caritini and Jeimer to grab a pitcher who should have elite stuff (at least get the AL to NL bump) and at least fills a rotation spot for a year or 2.

Edited July 7, 2017 by Cubswin11

[Brian]

Just go nuts and take the Verlander contract without parting with high level prospects, and also pick up someone from the Stroman/Archer level.

[cubsclapp]

What's so weird about Verlander is his velocity is the best it's been since 2011, and significantly up from the last few years.

 

But his command has been awful, something that hadn't been an issue in the past. He walked 2.25/9 last year, and 2.16/9 in 2015. It's 4.32/9 right now.

He's also given up 37.8% hard contact when his career rate is 27.1%.

 

The velocity being there is certainly a great sign, but the command is weird. Maybe he's overthrowing or something. I know Jeff Sullivan speculated about it being thanks to Verlander's release point yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-justin-verlander-trade-seems-highly-unlikely/

 

Anyway, if the front office is confident enough in him being better, fine by me.

[d_money]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

Under the assumption Archer/Stroman aren't available outside of a godfather offer and Gray requires Eloy+ I'm all just for using our money and like Caritini and Jeimer to grab a pitcher who should have elite stuff (at least get the AL to NL bump) and at least fills a rotation spot for a year or 2.

I'd approve of the Vic C + Jeimer C for Verlander all day. The Tigers can F off if they want someone on the ML roster or Eloy / Cease. The elite guys or ML guys are to be used for a Stroman-like trade.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

Under the assumption Archer/Stroman aren't available outside of a godfather offer and Gray requires Eloy+ I'm all just for using our money and like Caritini and Jeimer to grab a pitcher who should have elite stuff (at least get the AL to NL bump) and at least fills a rotation spot for a year or 2.

 

A real value return is gonna require giving up real value; I'm not really worried about further prospect/young player-hoarding if it means settling for an old, declining pitcher instead of the young hotness who is desperately needed now and going forward. The pitching FA market stinks and the Cubs' pitching development options ain't too hot right now, so I have zero problem with them dealing big from a position of strength to get get someone like Archer or Stroman. Settling for Verlander because Theo and co. can't miraculously fleece another team of a much better and younger arm seems...not good.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

 

Verlander's WAR per 32 starts:

 

2017: 2.5

2016: 4.9

2015: 4.6

2014: 2.9

2013: 4.6

2012: 6.6

2011: 6.0

2010: 6.1

 

Verlander's age per the next 32 weeks:

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What's so weird about Verlander is his velocity is the best it's been since 2011, and significantly up from the last few years.

 

But his command has been awful, something that hadn't been an issue in the past. He walked 2.25/9 last year, and 2.16/9 in 2015. It's 4.32/9 right now.

He's also given up 37.8% hard contact when his career rate is 27.1%.

 

The velocity being there is certainly a great sign, but the command is weird. Maybe he's overthrowing or something. I know Jeff Sullivan speculated about it being thanks to Verlander's release point yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-justin-verlander-trade-seems-highly-unlikely/

 

Anyway, if the front office is confident enough in him being better, fine by me.

 

Sullivan's article briefly mentioned this, but the hard contact bit seems to be a plague for the Tigers. They're easily worst in MLB at it(after being 7th in MLB with mostly the same cast of characters in 2016), and Fulmer is the only starter who hasn't seen that go significantly in the wrong direction in 2017 compared to last year. It's possible that problem has a large environmental component.

 

And with regards to command, James McCann or Avila have been the primary catcher there since 2010 (!), and the only seasons either of them have been above average by BP's framing are 2012 and 2016. Not coincidentally Verlander's 2 best ERA seasons in the last 5+ were those two years, and this year McCann is not only just below average, but at the very bottom of the league.

 

Toss in those factors combined with the AL to NL move, and I'd be reasonably confident that Verlander is a 3+ win pitcher the rest of this year, if not more.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm kinda surprised anyone is a fan of this potential move; Verlander is old as horsefeathers, was awesome again last year, but just OK the two years prior, and now kinda sucks. Yay?

Under the assumption Archer/Stroman aren't available outside of a godfather offer and Gray requires Eloy+ I'm all just for using our money and like Caritini and Jeimer to grab a pitcher who should have elite stuff (at least get the AL to NL bump) and at least fills a rotation spot for a year or 2.

I'd approve of the Vic C + Jeimer C for Verlander all day. The Tigers can F off if they want someone on the ML roster or Eloy / Cease. The elite guys or ML guys are to be used for a Stroman-like trade.

 

To give up 2 of the AAA trio, I'd want them to pick up a substantial amount of money. That may be getting greedy, and I'm not going to let Caratini or Candelario get in the way of making the team better, but even if I'm optimistic about Verlander's bounce back, 2.5/70 is a lot to pay for that risk before even getting to players.

[UMFan83]

sounds like we are going to have some competition in the SP trade market

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

the Brewers will get Quintana, and cobs will counter with Verlander's rotting corpse

[UMFan83]

the Brewers will get Quintana, and cobs will counter with Verlander's rotting corpse

 

The Sox will sell him at a discount to Milwaukee just to horsefeathers the Cubs over

[Hairyducked Idiot]

the Brewers will get Quintana, and cobs will counter with Verlander's rotting corpse

 

The Sox will sell him at a discount to Milwaukee just to horsefeathers the Cubs over

 

I think you're assuming we're close enough to the Brewers at that point for that to be relevant to their thought process.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

the Brewers will get Quintana, and cobs will counter with Verlander's rotting corpse

 

The Sox will sell him at a discount to Milwaukee just to horsefeathers the Cubs over

 

I think you're assuming we're close enough to the Brewers at that point for that to be relevant to their thought process.

especially after they trade for leatherface

[Derwood]

FWIW, Jayson Stark was on the radio yesterday and thought that the Blue Jays were unlikely to blow it up. He said the chances of them trading Donaldson or Stroman were slim to none

[Post Count Padder]

Julie DiCaro was tweeting a source said Cubs and Tigers have had some serious discussions on Verlander, FWIW.

 

Just take him and Avila and Justin Wilson and give em Candelario and Caratini and Cease and whoever else.