Mock Offseason Thread

[davell]

We'll probably sign someone soon or make a trade. Guess we should put one of these up, to try and guess in before we do.....

 

 

My first crack at one.....

 

Signings

 

Joe Smith- 1/3.5 with incentives that could get him to 6

 

Gregor Blanco-1/5 with incentives that could get him to 8, with a team option at 8.

 

Jon Niese-1/2.5 with incentives that could get him to 10, team option at 7.5(non guaranteed)

 

Brett Cecil-3/21

 

Trades

 

Sonny Gray for Soler, Candelario, Zagunis, and Clifton

 

Leonys Martin for Szczur, Strop, and de la Cruz

 

Eddie Butler for Christian Villanueva

[Post Count Padder]

The Rockies wouldn't make that trade. And that would not be good trade for us with the Mariners.

 

I wouldn't mind Cecil on a reasonable 2 year deal. Or Blanco on that deal.

 

We definitely are trading Szczur. I feel like if we bring back Fowler, we trade Soler as well and utilize Almora as the backup at all three outfield spots.

[Tim]

Okay - so I'm going to treat this as more of a "what I'd do" instead of a "what I think Theo will do" thread.

 

Assumptions:

 

Payroll can go up to around $180M, giving about $40M to play with. For FA contract values, I'll go with the median crowdsourced value from Fangraphs, recognizing this will probably be a bit low.

 

Priorities:

 

1.) 5th starter

2.) Closer

3.) Additional Relief

4.) Starter Depth

5.) Outfield

 

FA Signings:

 

Kenley Jansen (5/$80M - 16, 16, 16, 16, 16)

Dexter Fowler (4/$64M - 16, 16, 16, 16)

Brett Cecil (3/$21M - 7, 7, 7)

 

Trades:

 

I still see Houston as an ideal trade partner to bring in a SP and RP in one swoop. They had an overflow of quality relief pitching last year and also have a number of young pitchers hitting the majors at the same time. They also currently have an outfield that has exactly one player with positive WAR in 2016. We match up very well.

 

Soler + Almora + Villanueva for Michael Feliz + David Paulino

 

We supply Houston with two starting OF's and infield depth to replace Valbuena. In return, we receive two really big arms with options available.

 

Atlanta:

 

Candelario for Wisler

 

I'm not greatly enamored with Wisler, but I do want to take advantage of Candelario's big season while we can. We can stick Wisler in Iowa as an emergency starter.

 

---------------------------

 

Roster:

 

SP: Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, Monty, Paulino, Wisler

RP: Jansen, Cecil, Rondon, Strop, Feliz, Edwards, Monty(?), Grimm, Zastryzny, Pena, Patton

C: Contreras, Montero

IF: Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Zobrist, La Stella

OF: Heyward, Fowler, Schwarber, Szczur

[davell]

I'd love the Houston trade. But Houston likely wouldn't trade Paulino alone for that package. And Feliz is more valuable than either Soler or Almora too.

 

By the way, I used Villanueva in a spring training swap of guys that are out of options.(I'm not even positive Butler is). But that's the type of deal I see him moving in most likely.

 

Anyone have some sort of list with young, out of option pitching on it?

[davell]

I don't know what the Nats are looking for outside of bullpen help, and the extra arms they have could easily help out there.....But with a rotation of Max/Strasbourg/Roark/Gio/Ross.....It does leave Giolito, Lopez, and Cole out in the cold.

 

If there was a way to grab any of them, Giolito, then Lopez preferred, it'd be cool.

[raw]

 

Kenley Jansen (5/$80M - 18, 18, 18, 18, 18)

 

Um, math?

[Tim]

 

Kenley Jansen (5/$80M - 18, 18, 18, 18, 18)

 

Um, math?

Weekend? Still off balance from Tuesday?

 

Fixed it in the original post.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Man, I kinda think that Houston deal is terrible. Paulino looks a really good prospect but he's got 20 innings above A ball, and Feliz only has this year with the awesome peripherals and even then he still wasn't very good at run prevention. I mean maybe that's what it would take to get those two, but those two are not particularly good fits for the Cubs' primary needs.

 

I still can't come up with an exact series of moves I really like, mainly because I can't seem to find a SP deal that I like and is feasible without Baez(nor is there a great Baez replacement). But in the spirit of not dumping on the above and not offering anything of my own:

 

- Jansen 5/100

- Fowler 4/65

- Soler, Almora, Villanueva for Manaea

- Sign a LH reserve OF, Coghlan, Blanco, Joyce, and Jay are all options of varying quality

 

Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Schwarber/Russell/Contreras/Heyward (Montero/Baez/Candelario/FA/Szczur)

Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/Manaea/Lackey

Jansen/Strop/Edwards/Rondon/Grimm/Montgomery/Zastryzny(or other LOOGY)

 

Like I said, not my favorite sequence by any stretch, but that team wins a lot of games too.

[CubinNY]

1. Trust Theo/Jed

2. ?

3. Profit

[Gilby]

I could see the Nats having interest in Almora if they want to move Turner back to the infield. If I were them, I'd be all about moving Murphy to 1b and Turner to 2b. Zimmerman is baaad.

[Tim]

Man, I kinda think that Houston deal is terrible. Paulino looks a really good prospect but he's got 20 innings above A ball, and Feliz only has this year with the awesome peripherals and even then he still wasn't very good at run prevention. I mean maybe that's what it would take to get those two, but those two are not particularly good fits for the Cubs' primary needs.

 

I still can't come up with an exact series of moves I really like, mainly because I can't seem to find a SP deal that I like and is feasible without Baez(nor is there a great Baez replacement). But in the spirit of not dumping on the above and not offering anything of my own:

 

- Jansen 5/100

- Fowler 4/65

- Soler, Almora, Villanueva for Manaea

- Sign a LH reserve OF, Coghlan, Blanco, Joyce, and Jay are all options of varying quality

 

Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Schwarber/Russell/Contreras/Heyward (Montero/Baez/Candelario/FA/Szczur)

Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/Manaea/Lackey

Jansen/Strop/Edwards/Rondon/Grimm/Montgomery/Zastryzny(or other LOOGY)

 

Like I said, not my favorite sequence by any stretch, but that team wins a lot of games too.

I'm thinking that Montgomery goes to the rotation with Cecil taking over as the primary pen lefty. Paulino goes to AAA along with Wisler to further his craft. Feliz goes to the bullpen in a lower leverage role, but has the arm to take over a larger on in time.

[texascub]

If we're doing a deal with the A's for pitching, I would like to see us try to get Frankie Montas too. I think he could be a good multi-inning bullpen option.

[raw]

 

Kenley Jansen (5/$80M - 18, 18, 18, 18, 18)

 

Um, math?

Weekend? Still off balance from Tuesday?

 

Fixed it in the original post.

 

I'd give him 5/90, FWIW.

[DouglasDorsey]

I don't have any brilliant trade scenarios as I don't immerse myself well enough in value and minors to the point I could make plausible trade scenarios, but would Boston have interest in Soler + for Kopech? I've liked him although he may be a hot head it seems.

[Cubswin11]

I don't have any brilliant trade scenarios as I don't immerse myself well enough in value and minors to the point I could make plausible trade scenarios, but would Boston have interest in Soler + for Kopech? I've liked him although he may be a hot head it seems.

I am always skeptical of guys like Kopeck with the absurd/sexy velocity. They seem to flame out more often than not, even considering pitcher attrition rate. Sure the fastball is huge, but is his stuff/command/feel that great? He walked 40 batters and gave up 42 hits in ~73 innings, that's allowing over 10 baserunners per 9 innings if my math is correct, pitching in rookie and A ball. In the AFL in 17 IP he's given up 13 hits, 1 HR, walked 7 and hit one batter as well.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Cubswin11

[DouglasDorsey]

I don't have any brilliant trade scenarios as I don't immerse myself well enough in value and minors to the point I could make plausible trade scenarios, but would Boston have interest in Soler + for Kopech? I've liked him although he may be a hot head it seems.

I am always skeptical of guys like Kopeck with the absurd/sexy velocity. They seem to flame out more often than not, even considering pitcher attrition rate. Sure the fastball is huge, but is his stuff/command/feel that great? He walked 40 batters and gave up 42 hits in ~73 innings, that's allowing over 10 baserunners per 9 innings if my math is correct, pitching in rookie and A ball.

 

That is a lot. I didnt really look at the hit/walks per 9. I should have done that. Even before that I was thinking he may be a late game pen arm. Perhaps that would help him harness the control a little more not trying to throw undeveloped pitches. This is also why I don't run any major league organizations.

[Cubswin11]

I don't have any brilliant trade scenarios as I don't immerse myself well enough in value and minors to the point I could make plausible trade scenarios, but would Boston have interest in Soler + for Kopech? I've liked him although he may be a hot head it seems.

I am always skeptical of guys like Kopeck with the absurd/sexy velocity. They seem to flame out more often than not, even considering pitcher attrition rate. Sure the fastball is huge, but is his stuff/command/feel that great? He walked 40 batters and gave up 42 hits in ~73 innings, that's allowing over 10 baserunners per 9 innings if my math is correct, pitching in rookie and A ball.

 

That is a lot. I didnt really look at the hit/walks per 9. I should have done that. Even before that I was thinking he may be a late game pen arm. Perhaps that would help him harness the control a little more not trying to throw undeveloped pitches. This is also why I don't run any major league organizations.

Trading Soler for a "pen arm" in A ball who appears to need some major work isn't something that interests me.

[Tryptamine]

To go along with what has been mentioned above, the Red Sox already have an absolutely loaded OF with Betts,JBJ and Benintendi. They're also covered at DH where it's either going to be Panda or Hanley. The Braves look ripe for the picking. Send Soler and Candy for Vizcaino,Soroka and Allard.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a one off idea that will never happen for a few reasons, but it fascinates me as a challenge trade for both teams: Rondon for David Robertson

 

The Cubs could use a little more certainty in their pen after Rondon and Strop came apart a little down the stretch, and especially if they don't sign Fowler, they'll likely have more money than they have holes they can fix with money. Robertson had a down year but his struggles line up pretty well with a (non-arm) injury and he finished the season strong.

 

The Sox, if they're planning on being competitive in 2017 or even 2018 could use some more money at their disposal, and Rondon gives them a chance to win/win because when he's good he's even better than Robertson at a lower cost.

 

So at the simplest level, the Sox save money to take on more risk and ceiling, and the Cubs take on more money to limit upside and downside in the back of their pen.

[imb]

hey offseason, where did you get those pants? the dumb idiot store?

[davell]

Looking at teams that need corner OF help, here's what I come up with, for poitential Soler landing spots....

 

Toronto, Cleveland, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, White Sox, Arizona, Oakland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and San Diego.....

 

Keep coming back to Taijuan Walker personally. Soler wouldn't get him by himself, but he's a guy I'm hopeful about anyway. Part of a package for Gray makes sense. Atlanta has Wisler or Blair that's probably in the same value range. Clevinger in Cleveland? Bradley, Corbin, even Miller in Arizona?

 

Tampa supposedly isn't a fan of Soler, so even though they have a need, I'll pass them up. Toronto or Baltimore don't have enough ML pitching, to trade from. Osuna would be nice though. I'm wary of the White Sox even dealing with us, but a Soler+ for Nate Jones move makes a bit of sense. I don't see any ML fits with SD, nor do I even trust trading with them.

 

Jake Thompson and Zach Eflin both are interesting for Philadelphia. Thompson being the one I'd prefer.

 

If we move him, I'd definitely prefer to get immediate help back. I'm not searching thru for pitching prospects in the 50-200 range that you could see being exchanged in a one for one or maybe a couple of the lower end guys for him. And yes, its definitely possible we move him in a deal where he's not really the lead piece. My honest guess though is we move him separately, so we don't deplete the depth we've built.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The name that I circled back to today was Bauer. I think there's a lot to like with him, AL to NL transition, no platoon split, he's a bright guy/Driveline client, he's proven a level of durability but still has 4 years of control, he's very good the first 2 times through the order but still faced the 3rd a lot so Maddon could conceivably have a positive influence on end results, and most importantly, as a clear 4th in the pecking order with reasonable in house options behind him, he could pretty easily be available to help Cleveland fill other needs.

 

The good news is that Soler and Almora are both potential fits there, but neither is a snug enough fit to make me certain that they'd uproot an existing SP(especially with Carrasco and Salazar's injuries) to get them. But that's really the case with every option unless they're gambling on someone with downright poor performance.

[Cubswin11]

I'd probably prefer Bauer over any of the reasonable targets (Odorizzi, etc,). And may even prefer him the most even vs Sale, Quintana and Archer when acquisition cost is factored in. Would 1 of Soler/Almora, Zaz and like Jeimer be enough?

[davell]

I'd probably prefer Bauer over any of the reasonable targets (Odorizzi, etc,). And may even prefer him the most even vs Sale, Quintana and Archer when acquisition cost is factored in. Would 1 of Soler/Almora, Zaz and like Jeimer be enough?

 

I think they'd want a much more valuable lead piece, and I'm not sure they'd want Candelario, with Ramirez being young.

[Cubswin11]

The more I think of it.... we should just sell out for Trout if the Angels are at least willing to "listen." Offer Schwarber, Baez, 1 of Soler/Almora, Eloy, and whatever 2-3 guys they want out of the Zagunis/Caratini/EJM/Dewees/Jeimer level guys for Trout, Escobar (takes Javys spot) and Cam Bedrosian (late inning bullpen option). Then go re-sign Fowler (probably moves to LF).

 

The roster would be

 

OF: Fowler/Trout/Heyward/And 1 of Almora or Soler

IF: Bryant/Russell/Zobrist/Rizzo/Escobar/LaStella

C: Willson/Montero

SP: Arrieta/Lester/Hendricks/Lackey/Montgomery or FA/Trade

 

RP: 1 of Montgomery or FA/Trade/Grimm/Zaz/Strop/Bedrosian/Rondon/Edwards