10/30 World Series Game 5 Cleveland (Bauer) @ Cubs (Lester) 7:00 CDT Fox

[Transmogrified Tiger]

To be clear, my post wasn't at all directed at you(I hadn't even scrolled down that far), mostly at Dave Cameron, who has whiffed on pretty much every article on the Cubs this postseason(micro-analysis really isn't his forte).

 

But since you brought it up, I'm not saying that the Cubs haven't been missing at breaking pitches, I'm lashing out at the 'continuing curveball crisis' or the incredulity that Trevor Bauer has enough command and confidence in his curve to use it at will.

 

The Cubs lineup has always been spearheaded by the top half, Fowler, Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist. Those guys are incredibly patient, do not often chase, and have no holes exploited as simply as 'throw an off speed pitch!'. Really good pitchers get those guys out more often, because they're really good pitchers. Kluber, Shaw, Allen, and Miller have thrown 25 of the 44 innings in this series, so that's going to bring the number of chases up by default.

 

Speaking of which, the other part of this is the back half of the Cubs lineup, which has largely featured Baez, Russell, Contreras, and Heyward. Heyward has been broken the entire playoffs, so the pitches used to get him out are largely irrelevant(and ironically enough, not curveballs/breaking pitches). The other 3 are high K right handed hitters facing an inordinate amount of talented right handed pitchers, beating them with breaking pitches is not a novel concept. The key, at least for Russell and Contreras, is that you have to get ahead of them and/or make really good breaking pitches, because those guys are patient enough to take their walks and have power to punish fastballs if you have to catch up in the count. If you have one bad at bat to the back half and succumb to the top half a couple times, all of a sudden you're giving up about a run each time through the order and you lose 5-2. Since I'm rambling, this is also the time to point out that the Cubs have a 3.04 ERA in the playoffs(3.40 in this series, 3 games of which were <= 2 runs), so the Cubs don't need to put up 7 to have a very high chance of winning.

 

So yes, the Cubs are swinging at more breaking balls out of the zone, this is a function mostly of facing really good pitchers/pitches, and the back half of their lineup being RH hitters that strike out a fair bit. I cannot express enough how much this is not new or novel information though. You have to make good enough pitches to get those hitters out, those same pitches might not be good enough to get the top half of the order out(which now also includes Schwarber), and we're talking about a series that has been 5 games and has 2 to go. It's small sample size navel-gazing to make this out to be some secret sauce to exploiting the Cubs offense, it is baseball as usual.

[DouglasDorsey]

It also seems to me that all of their pitchers have been very good at hitting that lower half/outside corner of the zone with fastballs and then throwing breaking pitches off of that. its definitely gotten in the heads of the right handers that they have to protect out there and they end up swinging wildly. If that outside low corner isn't being given/hit so consistently, they might not be so apt to swing at the breaking stuff out there. Cleveland's pitchers have been able to live on the corners all series long.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I think Baez is trying to do too much, and the lack of success has pushed him to the point he sells out on the outside corner

[UMFan83]

To be clear, my post wasn't at all directed at you(I hadn't even scrolled down that far), mostly at Dave Cameron, who has whiffed on pretty much every article on the Cubs this postseason(micro-analysis really isn't his forte).

 

But since you brought it up, I'm not saying that the Cubs haven't been missing at breaking pitches, I'm lashing out at the 'continuing curveball crisis' or the incredulity that Trevor Bauer has enough command and confidence in his curve to use it at will.

 

The Cubs lineup has always been spearheaded by the top half, Fowler, Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist. Those guys are incredibly patient, do not often chase, and have no holes exploited as simply as 'throw an off speed pitch!'. Really good pitchers get those guys out more often, because they're really good pitchers. Kluber, Shaw, Allen, and Miller have thrown 25 of the 44 innings in this series, so that's going to bring the number of chases up by default.

 

Speaking of which, the other part of this is the back half of the Cubs lineup, which has largely featured Baez, Russell, Contreras, and Heyward. Heyward has been broken the entire playoffs, so the pitches used to get him out are largely irrelevant(and ironically enough, not curveballs/breaking pitches). The other 3 are high K right handed hitters facing an inordinate amount of talented right handed pitchers, beating them with breaking pitches is not a novel concept. The key, at least for Russell and Contreras, is that you have to get ahead of them and/or make really good breaking pitches, because those guys are patient enough to take their walks and have power to punish fastballs if you have to catch up in the count. If you have one bad at bat to the back half and succumb to the top half a couple times, all of a sudden you're giving up about a run each time through the order and you lose 5-2. Since I'm rambling, this is also the time to point out that the Cubs have a 3.04 ERA in the playoffs(3.40 in this series, 3 games of which were <= 2 runs), so the Cubs don't need to put up 7 to have a very high chance of winning.

 

So yes, the Cubs are swinging at more breaking balls out of the zone, this is a function mostly of facing really good pitchers/pitches, and the back half of their lineup being RH hitters that strike out a fair bit. I cannot express enough how much this is not new or novel information though. You have to make good enough pitches to get those hitters out, those same pitches might not be good enough to get the top half of the order out(which now also includes Schwarber), and we're talking about a series that has been 5 games and has 2 to go. It's small sample size navel-gazing to make this out to be some secret sauce to exploiting the Cubs offense, it is baseball as usual.

 

Would you say that the Indians are uniquely qualified to shut down the offense, given the reasons you mention above, the fact that the staff is mostly righty except one of the best 2-3 LHRPs in baseball and the fact that Francona is willing to give over 50% of his innings to elite pitchers who can execute? Or would you say that the Cubs that have been chasing are just in a typical slump as players seem to cycle through over the course of a season? Or just SSS? Or a combo?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Would you say that the Indians are uniquely qualified to shut down the offense, given the reasons you mention above, the fact that the staff is mostly righty except one of the best 2-3 LHRPs in baseball and the fact that Francona is willing to give over 50% of his innings to elite pitchers who can execute? Or would you say that the Cubs that have been chasing are just in a typical slump as players seem to cycle through over the course of a season? Or just SSS? Or a combo?

 

Uniquely is probably too strong a word, but they are well-equipped since they don't have any left handed SP. The Cubs were the best team in baseball(even better than AL teams with DH's) against LHP for good reason. Or put another way, Francona being willing to start 4 straight games on short rest instead of giving Merritt one start is not an accident. Otherwise, outside of having deep pen and being willing to use it, there's nothing inherently different about the Indians. In terms of describing the actual results, it's too small and mixed a sample to really draw a single conclusion. Small sample sizes and temporary slumps are different ways of describing similar things, and of course the increase in quality means there's lower margin for error on the Cubs' end.

[Andy]

God, Cusack is so annoying. Also looked like he was wearing makeup last night.

For a half-second I wondered why we were watching a Goth-dressed woman on screen until I realized who it was.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

To be clear, my post wasn't at all directed at you(I hadn't even scrolled down that far), mostly at Dave Cameron, who has whiffed on pretty much every article on the Cubs this postseason(micro-analysis really isn't his forte).

 

This take was astoundingly stupid:

 

[Banedon]

[tweet]

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

To be clear, my post wasn't at all directed at you(I hadn't even scrolled down that far), mostly at Dave Cameron, who has whiffed on pretty much every article on the Cubs this postseason(micro-analysis really isn't his forte).

 

This take was astoundingly stupid:

 

 

In fairness, he did a bit of a mea culpa in an article later. After Sam Miller pointed out that it was a pretty savvy idea, but still.

 

The Bauer/curveball thing is just so simple though. Trevor Bauer's curveball is not good enough to get Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist to chase. In 12 plate appearances this series those 3 swung at 2 curveballs out of the zone, both were Zobrist fouling off pitches up in the zone in his 10 pitch at bat that culminated with a lineout. It wasn't a weapon against them and therefore he didn't use it. When he faced hitters where it would work(Russell) he went right back to it, as Cameron points out. But treating the entire offense as a homogenous unit that has curveball kryptonite is just baffling. If you're Corey Kluber maybe, but this is Trevor Bauer on short rest.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

To be clear, my post wasn't at all directed at you(I hadn't even scrolled down that far), mostly at Dave Cameron, who has whiffed on pretty much every article on the Cubs this postseason(micro-analysis really isn't his forte).

 

This take was astoundingly stupid:

 

 

In fairness, he did a bit of a mea culpa in an article later. After Sam Miller pointed out that it was a pretty savvy idea, but still.

 

The Bauer/curveball thing is just so simple though. Trevor Bauer's curveball is not good enough to get Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist to chase. In 12 plate appearances this series those 3 swung at 2 curveballs out of the zone, both were Zobrist fouling off pitches up in the zone in his 10 pitch at bat that culminated with a lineout. It wasn't a weapon against them and therefore he didn't use it. When he faced hitters where it would work(Russell) he went right back to it, as Cameron points out. But treating the entire offense as a homogenous unit that has curveball kryptonite is just baffling. If you're Corey Kluber maybe, but this is Trevor Bauer on short rest.

 

The "Corey Kluber maybe" part is key, too -- maybe being the key word. Because a couple weeks ago the Dodgers had us figured out with Hill and Kershaw... until they didn't. Kershaw was mowing us down when he had his ridiculous curve working, and he looked like Travis Wood when he didn't. So, basically, the Cubs' kryptonite could be defined as "Cy Young winners with their best stuff." Riveting.

[davell]

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Anyone not love Lester?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

Anyone not love Lester?

 

[bcl412]

cusack?

his fan status was questioned last night

Taking a photo with a player and a jersey doesn't exactly do anything. But I think the guy's history has made clear he's a Cubs fan, and attending a Sox game doesn't disprove that at all either.

I thought I remember years ago he claimed to be a fan of both teams.

[jersey cubs fan]

his fan status was questioned last night

Taking a photo with a player and a jersey doesn't exactly do anything. But I think the guy's history has made clear he's a Cubs fan, and attending a Sox game doesn't disprove that at all either.

I thought I remember years ago he claimed to be a fan of both teams.

Perhaps he did, and I don't see how that matters. I grew up a Cubs fan who was largely indifferent to the White Sox but had family and friends that liked them and a neighbor with season tickets. It wasn't until I started to run into Sox fans on the internet or paying attention to certain media member comments that I grew to despise them.

Add to it the hypocrisy with how the city has financed the White Sox while Reinsdorf has unfairly manipulated the commissioner's office to offset the Cubs inherent advantages. But if I lived my fandom differently, not wasting time on the internet talking about it or really paying attention to the inner workings at play then I'd probably have a moderate appreciation for the White Sox.

 

You don't have to hate the White Sox to qualify as a Cubs fan.

[davell]

I really wish there was video of Rizzo blaring Rocky on all TV's and shadowboxing. Edited October 31, 2016 by davell

[bcl412]

Taking a photo with a player and a jersey doesn't exactly do anything. But I think the guy's history has made clear he's a Cubs fan, and attending a Sox game doesn't disprove that at all either.

I thought I remember years ago he claimed to be a fan of both teams.

Perhaps he did, and I don't see how that matters. I grew up a Cubs fan who was largely indifferent to the White Sox but had family and friends that liked them and a neighbor with season tickets. It wasn't until I started to run into Sox fans on the internet or paying attention to certain media member comments that I grew to despise them.

Add to it the hypocrisy with how the city has financed the White Sox while Reinsdorf has unfairly manipulated the commissioner's office to offset the Cubs inherent advantages. But if I lived my fandom differently, not wasting time on the internet talking about it or really paying attention to the inner workings at play then I'd probably have a moderate appreciation for the White Sox.

 

You don't have to hate the White Sox to qualify as a Cubs fan.

 

I don't really care one way or the other. Qualifying "true fans" is annoying. I was just trying to see if I remembered this correctly.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't really care one way or the other. Qualifying "true fans" is annoying. I was just trying to see if I remembered this correctly.

Somebody somewhere talked about his attending the White Sox world series games and how bad a look that supposedly is, so I'm sure you are remembering correctly.

[Guest]

his fan status was questioned last night

Taking a photo with a player and a jersey doesn't exactly do anything. But I think the guy's history has made clear he's a Cubs fan, and attending a Sox game doesn't disprove that at all either.

I thought I remember years ago he claimed to be a fan of both teams.

 

I think some of the Sox fan thing stems from his portrayal of Joe Jackson.

[Brian707]

Taking a photo with a player and a jersey doesn't exactly do anything. But I think the guy's history has made clear he's a Cubs fan, and attending a Sox game doesn't disprove that at all either.

I thought I remember years ago he claimed to be a fan of both teams.

 

I think some of the Sox fan thing stems from his portrayal of Joe Jackson.

 

He played Buck Weaver I think

[Guest]

I thought I remember years ago he claimed to be a fan of both teams.

 

I think some of the Sox fan thing stems from his portrayal of Joe Jackson.

 

He played Buck Weaver I think

 

Oh yeah.

[mul21]

Finally uploaded this to YouTube.

 

[ConstableRabbit]

Ugh vertical video on youtube. Cmon man! :)

[Gmoney08]

Theo has won 2 WS titles. In 04 he was down 3-0 to the Evil Empire Yankees, in 07 he was down 3-1 to a team from Cleveland. To win a title with Theo you need to be down to the brink of elimination, Thoyer gets off on the thrill.

 

My last thread bump. I horsefeathering swear. horsefeathers Yessss! Champs!!!

[imb]

Also, I hope Ross plays in Game 6 or 7, but if this was his last appearance in the bigs -

 

His last PA drove in the game winning run

His last moment in the field was throwing out the tying run trying to steal 2B

 

There are worse ways you can go out.

All true. But I'd rather have him end his career by driving in the winning run in game 7.

 

CLOSE ENOUGH

[doublebubble]

first page is gold. and about the John Cusack thing, you guys know exactly how you react inside your head when you hear people say they are fans of the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, and other teams at the same time. Cusack is a bandwagoner. There is nothing wrong with that, but lets not pretend he isnt one.

 

[spoil][/spoil]