kenley jansen watch thread

[rocket]

getting ahead of myself. but, want.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Haven't put much thought into it, and I know, other things more important right now, but I prefer Jansen over Chapman, even at the cost of a draft pick. Doubt LAD let him go though.

[raw]

Yeah, definitely take Jansen over Chapman, all things considered. But Chapman being LH is a pretty big factor in his favor. Him being a huge prick is a big factor the opposite way.

[Sammy Sofa]

horsefeathers Chapman. Jansen would be a fantastic get.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am the weirdo who has been thinking of about 5 different article ideas about the offseason even while the playoffs are still going. Should the Cubs go big on a closer and which is preferable among the 3 big names(Chapman, Jansen, Melancon) is definitely one of them. Spoiler: I really like Jansen.

[muntjack]

I like Jansen a lot, but I'm also completely fine with Rondon. Would like to focus on SP w/upside this off-season.

[raw]

I am the weirdo who has been thinking of about 5 different article ideas about the offseason even while the playoffs are still going. Should the Cubs go big on a closer and which is preferable among the 3 big names(Chapman, Jansen, Melancon) is definitely one of them. Spoiler: I really like Jansen.

 

I'm a person that thinks the closer position is lame. But I also believe when you have a team this good (projected for next year) that having a bullpen that basically shuts it down late takes it to the next level. I'd actually put going big on a closer as more important than going big on a CF (to either be or replace Fowler). Jansen would be #1 for me. Chapman would be a great Plan B. Melancon is more "meh" for me. Even though he's clearly dominant, he's a good 2 years older than both Chapman and Jansen. And paying him a ton of money would not be ideal for me. If not Jansen or Chapman, I'd then look to getting a really good LH late-to-middle relief option.....though admittedly, there are not a ton of FA options out there. I'm still pretty confident in Strop, Rondon, Edwards, Montgomery (if not starting), and a strong LH option.

[Tim]

So we are set to lose Chapman, Wood and Smith as free agents. We'll definitely need to bring in another lefty. Possibly two if Monty will be considered for the rotation. I feel pretty good already about a Rondon/Strop/Edwards back of the pen. I'd feel even better with a dominant lefty in there, too. But nothing is jumping out at me as a good option while scanning through the FA list.

[Tim]

Actually, Brett Cecil jumps out at me.

 

If we really wanted to invest some of that post season money and go all year with a super pen, sign Jansen and Cecil.

 

Jansen / Rondon / Cecil / Strop / Edwards / who cares

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've got ideas that I don't really want to spell out in great detail at the moment(partially because WORLD SERIES and partially because I'll probably change my mind on how good those ideas are), but one thing I would like to say now is I have very little trust in Rondon going forward. He's 6-7 years post TJS and he's having arm problems again and even though he's currently healthy his command is not there. Add in Strop being a year from free agency and I'm definitely interested in bringing in a really good reliever.

[Clem Fandango]

Yeah every time Rondon came into the game I had zero faith he would get out his appearance unscathed. He's not reliable anymore since he had that injury. I also don't know how much the whole mental aspect of not being the closer anymore plays into it. I know that's stupid, but it always seems like closers who pitch in non save situations falter more often than not. I don't understand why, you're not throwing a ball any different than you would in a save situation, but it just seems to end up with the closer not pitching well in non-save situations. But between that and his injury he's been pretty unreliable.

 

From August 2nd through the end of the season, just before his injury and his time after, he had an 11.17 ERA in 9.2 innings of work. He's got a 5.62 ERA in 3.2 innings of work this postseason.

 

I don't trust him at all anymore.

[raw]

I've got ideas that I don't really want to spell out in great detail at the moment(partially because WORLD SERIES and partially because I'll probably change my mind on how good those ideas are), but one thing I would like to say now is I have very little trust in Rondon going forward. He's 6-7 years post TJS and he's having arm problems again and even though he's currently healthy his command is not there. Add in Strop being a year from free agency and I'm definitely interested in bringing in a really good reliever.

 

Good points here. Which is strange since you almost never make good points. :lol:

[davell]

I definitely want to add a major arm to the pen in the off season. Whether it be one of the FA or not, I'm interested to see how the FO approaches it. No idea if they're interested in plunking down 80-100 mill on a closer. I would have thought it was an emphatic "no". But they paid a very handsome price for a rental.

 

Wonder if Wade Davis could be had for a package not starting with Eloy?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I definitely want to add a major arm to the pen in the off season. Whether it be one of the FA or not, I'm interested to see how the FO approaches it. No idea if they're interested in plunking down 80-100 mill on a closer. I would have thought it was an emphatic "no". But they paid a very handsome price for a rental.

 

Wonder if Wade Davis could be had for a package not starting with Eloy?

 

Iffy on trading for Wade Davis because of the injury problems he just had this past season.

[davell]

Yeah, he's not ideal either. Colome would be a very nice grab.....

 

CL Rondon

SU Strop

SU Edwards

MR Grimm

SWING Montgomery

MR Pena

LHRP Zastryzny

 

FA Chapman, Cahill, Wood, Smith

 

Others on 40 man- Acevedo, Beeler, Brooks, Buchanan, Concepción, Patton, Rosscup, Johnson, Soto

 

Others that may matter- Rivero, Leathersich

 

I like Montgomery quite a bit and expect him to get starts next year. But we still have Hammel and we'll likely add someone else too. So its not likely, in my mind, that Montgomery is more than a 6th starter/do it all pen arm for us next year. That top group I listed COULD potentially be a solid pen, with no additions. But I'm not exactly secure with Rondon moving forward either. Although I COULD see Carl Jr taking the closer role and excelling. I could see Pena becoming an important part of the pen next year. I like Rob Z too. But we'll bring guys in obviously, as we'll want some vet arms and probably a back end guy.

 

Will we keep any of our own guys? I have no clue what to expect on Chapman. Wood, Cahill, even Smith, are all Maddon favorites, on some level. I'd be surprised if 1 or even 2 of those guys aren't back on one year deals.

 

Those other guys on the 40 man are just dreck. I guess MAYBE Johnson conceivably could get some innings, if he continues his transition into the pen. But its not likely to be that important.

 

I still have no clue what to think on Rivero. Its sink or swim time though, as he needs to be added to the 40 man. Anyway, he's still got to be a possibility. Leathersich is the guy I'm guessing helps us the most next year, out of anyone not listed in that top group. They've already signed him to a 2017 contract and my guess is they'll add him to the 40 man to protect him.

 

All in all, my guess is we add one guy for the back of the pen, although I'm guessing trade instead of by signing. I think we keep Wood and Smith(not advocating it, just figure we will) and bring in one other guy on a one year deal that's a major league contract. Along with the typical NRI deals where one winds up picking up some innings somewhere down the line......

[Little Slide Rooter]

When was the last time there was a closer who dominated for more than a few years? Serious question, because they don't seem to make Mariano Riveras, Billy Wagners, and Trevor Hoffmans anymore. All I'm seeing is Carlos Marmols, Heath Bells, and Trevor Rosenthals, who rise and fall within 3-5 years.

 

I'm by no means opposed to adding a reliever or 2 to an already strong core of Rondon, Strop, Edwards, and maybe Grimm and Zaz but I'd just as soon not go overboard.

[Tim]

When was the last time there was a closer who dominated for more than a few years? Serious question, because they don't seem to make Mariano Riveras, Billy Wagners, and Trevor Hoffmans anymore. All I'm seeing is Carlos Marmols, Heath Bells, and Trevor Rosenthals, who rise and fall within 3-5 years.

 

I'm by no means opposed to adding a reliever or 2 to an already strong core of Rondon, Strop, Edwards, and maybe Grimm and Zaz but I'd just as soon not go overboard.

Chapman has had a pretty good five year run and is still going strong.

[Tim]

Not to mention Kimbrel, Papelbon & KRod.

 

I'd bet pretty strongly on Britton maintaining his excellence at least a couple more years, too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a difference between guys like Marmol, Bell, and Rosenthal throwing enough strikes for a few years to be good closers and guys like Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon having a 4-5 year run where they dominate and have an ERA on the right side of 2. They're a different class of player.

[Tryptamine]

Yeah, he's not ideal either. Colome would be a very nice grab.....

 

CL Rondon

SU Strop

SU Edwards

MR Grimm

SWING Montgomery

MR Pena

LHRP Zastryzny

 

 

A Colome and Odorizzi package is pretty much ideal for me. I just don't know if the Cubs have the chips to get it done only taking Soler off the ML roster and not including Eloy from the farm. Does Soler+Happ+Clifton even come close?

[Cubswin11]

I generally hate the idea of spending a ton of money on relievers, but there's a number of circumstances that point to doing it this offseason for us that it makes a lot of sense to pull the trigger now (one of the main reasons being Jansen/Chapman are on the elite spectrum) if they ever are going to do it.

[jersey cubs fan]

I generally hate the idea of spending a ton of money on relievers, but there's a number of circumstances that point to doing it this offseason for us that it makes a lot of sense to pull the trigger if they ever are going to do it.

I've long railed against the idea of multi year contracts for middle relievers, meaning the dime a dozen guys who do their job well but do not dominate. You absolutely should go after and spend money on the studs though. Then fill out the rest of projects and hope a few work.

[Clem Fandango]

What about Cashner as a replacement for Travis Wood?

[Bull]

There's a difference between guys like Marmol, Bell, and Rosenthal throwing enough strikes for a few years to be good closers and guys like Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon having a 4-5 year run where they dominate and have an ERA on the right side of 2. They're a different class of player.

I believe Marmol was in that class. IIRC his slider was the most unhittable pitch in baseball. It's just that good sliders break arms.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a difference between guys like Marmol, Bell, and Rosenthal throwing enough strikes for a few years to be good closers and guys like Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon having a 4-5 year run where they dominate and have an ERA on the right side of 2. They're a different class of player.

I believe Marmol was in that class. IIRC his slider was the most unhittable pitch in baseball. It's just that good sliders break arms.

 

Peak Marmol was close, he had a 2.55 ERA and 2.01 FIP in 2010, and even in that peak year he walked 6 guys per 9. He wasn't close to that performance with any consistency though, if he had done that for 3+ years then sure, but that's not what happened unfortunately.