10/7 - NLDS GAME 1 - Cubs (Lester) vs. Giants (Cueto) 8:00 PM CST FS1

[Cubswin11]

Another fun fact, the Cubs won more games by 5+ runs than the Giants did the entire 2nd half

[badger]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

MORE ODDS FOR THE GIANTS TO CRUSH

 

I thnk you mean EVENS.

 

http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/degrassi/images/d/dd/Liz-lemon-eye-roll.gif

[muntjack]

I think this is going to be a thrashing. 9-2, 6-1, 5-0.

[Cubswin11]

I have to recalculate the last post Edited October 6, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here are the wRC+ for the likely starting lineups for both teams:

 

149 - Cubs

145 - Cubs

138 - Giants

129 - Cubs

124 - Cubs

121 - Giants

116 - Giants

113 - Cubs

107 - Giants

105 - Giants

101 - Cubs

98 - Giants

96 - Giants

95 - Cubs

89 - Giants

72 - Cubs

 

This assumes Ross catching and Coghlan in LF. Future games the Cubs will have lower numbers in one spot(Soler's 106 or Baez's 94) and possibly higher in another(Contreras's 126 wRC+ catching).

 

And then the best relievers by FIP:

 

1.42 - Cubs

2.53 - Giants

2.87 - Cubs

2.91 - Cubs

3.15 - Giants

3.16 - Giants

3.28 - Cubs

3.29 - Giants

3.50 - Cubs

3.80 - Giants

 

 

 

Summary: There's going to be a lot of talk about the starting pitching matchups being relatively even, and that's definitely an important equalizer. But it's important to remember the magnitude of how much better the Cubs are in the other stages, especially at the top.

[squally1313]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

[David]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

that's what i figured

[Banedon]

Heyman is absolutely ridiculous...

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-power-ranking-mlb-playoff-teams/

 

He has the Giants as the #2 team in the playoffs and says that despite having the best record, the Cubs have to play the toughest opponent.

 

Suuuuure.

[Clem Fandango]

Heyman is absolutely ridiculous...

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-power-ranking-mlb-playoff-teams/

 

He has the Giants as the #2 team in the playoffs and says that despite having the best record, the Cubs have to play the toughest opponent.

 

Suuuuure.

 

One scout, in fact, says the key is not to let the rookie Seager beat you

 

Oh, who knew it'd be that simple. Okay, the Dodgers will be easy then.

[ScrubMD]

I saw one of the douche baseball writers tweeting about how Bumgarner could pitch in relief in game 5 like that was the key to the series. Like 99% of people who write for a living are stupid douches.

[jersey cubs fan]

Heyman is absolutely ridiculous...

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-power-ranking-mlb-playoff-teams/

 

He has the Giants as the #2 team in the playoffs and says that despite having the best record, the Cubs have to play the toughest opponent.

 

Suuuuure.

 

One scout, in fact, says the key is not to let the rookie Seager beat you

 

Oh, who knew it'd be that simple. Okay, the Dodgers will be easy then.

 

 

A scout told him that.

[Thrilho]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

that's what i figured

 

Me too. Cueto has been pretty platoon neutral in his career with a .299 wOBA against RH vs .297 against LH. FIP and xFIP within .04. This year is a mixed bag. FIP and xFIP numbers are better against lefties than righties (FIP 2.76 v LH, 3.12 v RH) but his wOBA is better against RH (wOBA .291 v LH, .263 v RH). Hard hit of 30% v LH, 24% v RH. LD% of 24% v LH, 18% v RH.

 

So it looks like you'd want lefties in the lineup based on his numbers this year, but

it's not super stark. So I'm hoping to see Javy start game 1 and pretty much all the games after that.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

that's what i figured

 

Me too. Cueto has been pretty platoon neutral in his career with a .299 wOBA against RH vs .297 against LH. FIP and xFIP within .04. This year is a mixed bag. FIP and xFIP numbers are better against lefties than righties (FIP 2.76 v LH, 3.12 v RH) but his wOBA is better against RH (wOBA .291 v LH, .263 v RH). Hard hit of 30% v LH, 24% v RH. LD% of 24% v LH, 18% v RH.

 

So it looks like you'd want lefties in the lineup based on his numbers this year, but

it's not super stark. So I'm hoping to see Javy start game 1 and pretty much all the games after that.

 

FWIW he has really dominated our best lefties in the sss. The only LH who has done anything is Cog. I'm most concerned with the change-up. We don't do any damage against them.

[TMan92]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

 

Soler's numbers against Cueto look really solid. Do we want him out of the game?

[TMan92]

EVENtually teams with shitty bullpens and lineups get exposed.

[Thrilho]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

 

Soler's numbers against Cueto look really solid. Do we want him out of the game?

I could buy Cog's .798 OPS in 20 PAs as meaningful or maybe Javy's 4 Ks in 6 PAs but I wouldn't take much from Georgie's 2-3 with a double. Personally I just want to see the Voltron defense in as much as possible.

[David]

[squally1313]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

 

Soler's numbers against Cueto look really solid. Do we want him out of the game?

I could buy Cog's .798 OPS in 20 PAs as meaningful or maybe Javy's 4 Ks in 6 PAs but I wouldn't take much from Georgie's 2-3 with a double. Personally I just want to see the Voltron defense in as much as possible.

 

Coghlan's bat is preferable to Javy's against a righty, but I don't think it makes up for the defensive downgrade, especially against a team that puts so many balls in play. Plus that gives you another lefty off the bench with Montero to make it less likely we'll see LaStella. Or if Joe wants to use Contreras as a pinch hitter and therefore Miggy has to be the backup catcher.

[Proven Veteran]

Cubs, please stomp these assholes.

[badger]

If my current anxiety is any indication of future anxiety, if this team ever makes it to the World Series, I'm literally gonna die in a pool of my own vomit, not from choking on it, but from their being that sheer amount and me drowning it a day before it starts.

[Omar]

how about you all right now just accept the fact that the cubs will lose every game and get eliminated, that way, anything above that expectation will only make you happier. Edited October 6, 2016 by Omar

[TMan92]

If we are going to throw stupid stats out there, how about Arrieta pitching in California that last two years?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If we are going to throw stupid stats out there, how about Arrieta pitching in California that last two years?

 

Even just this year: 4 GS, 30 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 24/7 K/BB, 0 HR

 

Granted 3 of those are against the offenses of the A's, Angels, and Padres, but the other is this Giants team

[Cubswin11]

If we are going to throw stupid stats out there, how about Arrieta pitching in California that last two years?

Also I remember something about how he's god mode nearly every time of 5+ days rest since he's been a Cub

[USSoccer]

Hasn't Baez been playing third for most of Lester's starts, which would push Bryant to left field for game 1?

 

 

Soler's numbers against Cueto look really solid. Do we want him out of the game?

 

Soler is the worst defensive OF I've ever seen. So yeah, he can PH or something.

 

Lester prefers Javy at 3B and Ross catching so that's what we'll see.

Edited October 6, 2016 by USSoccer