10/7 - NLDS GAME 1 - Cubs (Lester) vs. Giants (Cueto) 8:00 PM CST FS1

[Hairyducked Idiot]

how about you all right now just accept the fact that the cubs will lose every game and get eliminated, that way, anything above that expectation will only make you happier.

 

Way ahead of you

[David]

538 has the Cubs at 68% to win the series. Fangraphs projection has it at 56.7% (LA is 60%, the highest of any of the 4) but their season stats mode has it at 65.7%.

With the season wrapped up I dont get why the season stats mode isn't the default

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[UMFan83]

So guessing lineup is....

 

Fowler CF (S)

Bryant LF ®

Rizzo 1B (L)

Zobrist 2B (S)

Russell SS ®

Heyward RF (L)

Baez 3B ®

Ross C ®

Lester P (L)

 

Debated with switching Heyward and Russell but wanted to avoid 3 straight righties in the lineup

[David]

Basically, the gist is that right now they have the Dodgers, as presently constructed for the postseason, PROJECTING as a 105 win talent team. In other words, their system is disastrously broken.

[David]

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[Cubswin11]

So guessing lineup is....

 

Fowler CF (S)

Bryant LF ®

Rizzo 1B (L)

Zobrist 2B (S)

Russell SS ®

Heyward RF (L)

Baez 3B ®

Ross C ®

Lester P (L)

 

Debated with switching Heyward and Russell but wanted to avoid 3 straight righties in the lineup

I'm 99% sure that's it and would be my guess. Only other variations I could see would be Javy at 2B and Zobrist in LF or 1 of Coghlan/Soler in LF and Bryant at 3B with Javy coming in late for defense/pinch running and staying in the game.

[MUCubsfan]

If we are going to throw stupid stats out there, how about Arrieta pitching in California that last two years?

Also I remember something about how he's god mode nearly every time of 5+ days rest since he's been a Cub

Not really. Last year he was God mode on normal rest. This year he's a little better on 5 days rest than 4, but then God mode on 6+ days rest.

 

Moral of the story - I don't know if there's anything to it with Jake.

[Omar]

Out of all the games this series, we better knock the horsefeathers out of Samardzija.

[bcl412]

If my current anxiety is any indication of future anxiety, if this team ever makes it to the World Series, I'm literally gonna die in a pool of my own vomit, not from choking on it, but from their being that sheer amount and me drowning it a day before it starts.

I wonder if it will be like this once we win one.

[squally1313]

Basically, the gist is that right now they have the Dodgers, as presently constructed for the postseason, PROJECTING as a 105 win talent team. In other words, their system is disastrously broken.

I couldn't tell exactly what roster set-up/playing time distribution they were using, because towards the bottom they had the Dodgers at 117 wins, but I assume the main idea behind it was a healthy Kershaw, Hill, and Maeda pitching 75% of the games, as opposed to 60%.

[minnesotacubsfan]

If we are going to throw stupid stats out there, how about Arrieta pitching in California that last two years?

 

Even just this year: 4 GS, 30 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 24/7 K/BB, 0 HR

 

Granted 3 of those are against the offenses of the A's, Angels, and Padres, but the other is this Giants team

Trying to curb the Higante Mythos with facts will only anger the gods more

[Thed Hoyerstein]

Soler is the worst defensive OF I've ever seen. So yeah, he can PH or something.

 

http://sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Kolten-Wong-face-plants-Cubs-Cardinals-e1474656355842.jpg

[Omar]

how about you all right now just accept the fact that the cubs will lose every game and get eliminated, that way, anything above that expectation will only make you happier.

 

Way ahead of you

 

good life lesson.

[badger]

How many pages will this be by game time tomorrow? 25?

[Derwood]

Cubs open at -175 for tomorrow's game.

 

I never did understand baseball betting lines

[David]

Cubs open at -175 for tomorrow's game.

 

I never did understand baseball betting lines

 

What are you referring to when you say you don't understand?

 

If it's the moneyline format, that is not exclusive to baseball.

[David]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BLPAHxsDaIt/

[Derwood]

Cubs open at -175 for tomorrow's game.

 

I never did understand baseball betting lines

 

What are you referring to when you say you don't understand?

 

If it's the moneyline format, that is not exclusive to baseball.

 

That then

[Sammy Sofa]

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Does he ever NOT look like that?

[badger]

 

I never did understand baseball betting lines

 

What are you referring to when you say you don't understand?

 

If it's the moneyline format, that is not exclusive to baseball.

 

That then

 

 

I never understood this either. I only understand the obvious betting lines, like points, o/u.

[David]

 

I never did understand baseball betting lines

 

What are you referring to when you say you don't understand?

 

If it's the moneyline format, that is not exclusive to baseball.

 

That then

 

If it's a + number, then it's how much you win if you bet $100. If it's a - number, then it's how much you have to bet to win $100.

 

So a $100 bet at +150 wins you $150. A $120 bet wins you $100 at -120.

 

It's a straight bet on whether the team wins or loses. No spread involved.

[David]

Heard some mention on the radio about who the umpire is going to be tomorrow night and Lester not faring well with him, but I'm not sure if I misheard or not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Heard some mention on the radio about who the umpire is going to be tomorrow night and Lester not faring well with him, but I'm not sure if I misheard or not.

 

HP: Todd Tichenor

1B: Larry Vanover

2B: Marvin Hudson

3B: Alan Porter

LF: John Hirschbeck - Crew Chief

RF: Mike Muchlinski

 

This is Muchlinski's first playoff series, and Vanover normally is a crew chief in the regular season.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The site that does umpire heat maps apparently folded, but I was looking around earlier and Tichenor appears to be a small zone guy

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Heard some mention on the radio about who the umpire is going to be tomorrow night and Lester not faring well with him, but I'm not sure if I misheard or not.

 

HP: Todd Tichenor

1B: Larry Vanover

2B: Marvin Hudson

3B: Alan Porter

LF: John Hirschbeck - Crew Chief

RF: Mike Muchlinski

 

This is Muchlinski's first playoff series, and Vanover normally is a crew chief in the regular season.

 

This was the only 2016 game that Lester started with Tichenor behind the plate: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN201605150.shtml

 

6.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 9/2 K/BB

 

For his career he's fared much worse, 7.80 ERA in the other 3 starts.