10/7 - NLDS GAME 1 - Cubs (Lester) vs. Giants (Cueto) 8:00 PM CST FS1

[Sammy Sofa]

The only thing that worries me is the stupid inning that their offense will put together of 2-3 weak hits that find holes topped off by a Hunter Pence bloop double down a line that scores a run or 2. Hopefully it's insignificant towards the outcome of the game.

 

Aw, so they lose something like 6-2 instead of 6-0. How cute.

[BigSlick]

i'm gonna get drunk as horsefeathers at wrigleyville north and eat hot dogs from the diner grill and maybe pet a dog because there's usually a dog in there

[David]

Giants are +215 for this series

 

Seriously, this is insane.

[Cubswin11]

The only thing that worries me is the stupid inning that their offense will put together of 2-3 weak hits that find holes topped off by a Hunter Pence bloop double down a line that scores a run or 2. Hopefully it's insignificant towards the outcome of the game.

 

Aw, so they lose something like 6-2 instead of 6-0. How cute.

That's the spirit

[minnesotacubsfan]

Giants are +215 for this series

 

Seriously, this is insane.

 

 

What does this mean? I'm not a betting man

[David]

Giants are +215 for this series

 

Seriously, this is insane.

 

 

What does this mean? I'm not a betting man

 

it means that if you bet on the giants moneyline, you would win $215 for every $100 wagered....so you're getting 2.15-1

 

the cubs are -255, which means you have to bet $255 to win $100

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Giants are +215 for this series

 

Seriously, this is insane.

 

 

What does this mean? I'm not a betting man

 

You win back $215 if you bet $100 and they win, plus your original $100. Basically puts Cubs at 70% to win

[minnesotacubsfan]

Ohhhhhh

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even breaking schtick for a minute, that is pretty great value. Any five-game playoff series maxes out at about 60/40 for the better team. Getting odds 10 percentage points better than that is a steal.

[badger]

Imma be drunk as horsefeathers either at home or at Wyman's. Any Denver peopple in this thread here?

[soccer10k]

538 has the Cubs at 68% to win the series. Fangraphs projection has it at 56.7% (LA is 60%, the highest of any of the 4) but their season stats mode has it at 65.7%.

[David]

Even breaking schtick for a minute, that is pretty great value. Any five-game playoff series maxes out at about 60/40 for the better team. Getting odds 10 percentage points better than that is a steal.

 

Yup. Must fight urge to hedge my emotions with a wager like a douche.

[UMFan83]

 

Seriously, this is insane.

 

 

What does this mean? I'm not a betting man

 

You win back $215 if you bet $100 and they win, plus your original $100. Basically puts Cubs at 70% to win

 

That sounds insane but I guess the oddsmakers are trying to balance out all that Chicago money

[BigSlick]

538 has the Cubs at 68% to win the series. Fangraphs projection has it at 56.7% (LA is 60%, the highest of any of the 4) but their season stats mode has it at 65.7%.

With the season wrapped up I dont get why the season stats mode isn't the default

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

 

What does this mean? I'm not a betting man

 

You win back $215 if you bet $100 and they win, plus your original $100. Basically puts Cubs at 70% to win

 

That sounds insane but I guess the oddsmakers are trying to balance out all that Chicago money

 

 

This is what I would assume

[Tracer Bullet]

Hey, it's our first meaningful game since like April. Let's have fun out there boys.

[David]

 

 

What does this mean? I'm not a betting man

 

You win back $215 if you bet $100 and they win, plus your original $100. Basically puts Cubs at 70% to win

 

That sounds insane but I guess the oddsmakers are trying to balance out all that Chicago money

 

Well, yeah. I wasn't posting it because I thought it reflected our actual chances. I posted it because of how insanely +EV it seems to be.

[Cubswin11]

Even breaking schtick for a minute, that is pretty great value. Any five-game playoff series maxes out at about 60/40 for the better team. Getting odds 10 percentage points better than that is a steal.

 

Yup. Must fight urge to hedge my emotions with a wager like a douche.

Yeah I might need to call a guy, those a really good odds

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[minnesotacubsfan]

538 has the Cubs at 68% to win the series. Fangraphs projection has it at 56.7% (LA is 60%, the highest of any of the 4) but their season stats mode has it at 65.7%.

 

 

How can fangraphs and 538 be so far off, and which has been the better predictor?

[David]

i can't wrap my head around how insanely hard it feels to get through the MLB playoffs and come out the champion, and then how the hell the yankees pulled off the late 90's.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

538 has the Cubs at 68% to win the series. Fangraphs projection has it at 56.7% (LA is 60%, the highest of any of the 4) but their season stats mode has it at 65.7%.

 

 

How can fangraphs and 538 be so far off, and which has been the better predictor?

 

Fangraphs is probably wrong, they have some weird glitches. 538 has been treating us like a 120-win team all year and I want to believe but who knows.

[Cubswin11]

i can't wrap my head around how insanely hard it feels to get through the MLB playoffs and come out the champion, and then how the hell the yankees pulled off the late 90's.

I would imagine it feels like going to a craps table starting with your last $20 and leaving a few hours later with $10,000 because the dice just fell the right way.

[minnesotacubsfan]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

 

MORE ODDS FOR THE GIANTS TO CRUSH

[UMFan83]

2 funny stats:

 

-The Cubs had a better road record this season than the Giants home record

-The Cubs had a better run differential on the road this season than the Giants total RD for the season. The same can also be said about the Cubs RD at home.