Is Kris Bryant going to win MVP?

[badger]

Speaking of Coors, I hope 3 games there brings me lots of dongs since I'm stuck not seeing Arrieta or Hendricks.

[David]

Arenado and his .788 road OPS needs to be stricken from the conversation. Frankly, all Colorado stats need an asterisk. DJ LeMahieu has an .867 OPS for crying out loud. Of course, it's only .676 away from Coors. Story has a .746 OPS on the road. Bench players put up all-star caliber numbers and borderline all-stars look like MVPs. As a team, they have an .891 OPS at home, leading MLB. On the road it's .683, good for 27th. I believe that would be the biggest split in MLB history.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/coors-field-blessing-or-curse/

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/searching-for-a-coors-field-hangover-020615

[UMFan83]

Arenado and his .788 road OPS needs to be stricken from the conversation. Frankly, all Colorado stats need an asterisk. DJ LeMahieu has an .867 OPS for crying out loud. Of course, it's only .676 away from Coors. Story has a .746 OPS on the road. Bench players put up all-star caliber numbers and borderline all-stars look like MVPs. As a team, they have an .891 OPS at home, leading MLB. On the road it's .683, good for 27th. I believe that would be the biggest split in MLB history.

 

Is the "Inverse Coors Effect" theory still a legitimate theory? I'd like to know exactly how much it effects a players road numbers and how much we should take it into consideration when looking at Rockies hitters.

[David]

Arenado and his .788 road OPS needs to be stricken from the conversation. Frankly, all Colorado stats need an asterisk. DJ LeMahieu has an .867 OPS for crying out loud. Of course, it's only .676 away from Coors. Story has a .746 OPS on the road. Bench players put up all-star caliber numbers and borderline all-stars look like MVPs. As a team, they have an .891 OPS at home, leading MLB. On the road it's .683, good for 27th. I believe that would be the biggest split in MLB history.

 

Is the "Inverse Coors Effect" theory still a legitimate theory? I'd like to know exactly how much it effects a players road numbers and how much we should take it into consideration when looking at Rockies hitters.

 

^^^^^^

 

It's part "there's probably something to the Coors hangover effect" and part "the rockies play a bunch of games in tough NL West pitchers parks"

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Arenado is nearly 2 wins worse than Bryant and his unadjusted offensive numbers are worse, so screw him anyway.

[David]

Arenado is nearly 2 wins worse than Bryant and his unadjusted offensive numbers are worse, so screw him anyway.

 

Meh. Murphy is like a win and a half behind Bryant and a good amount of the posters in here think he'll get it.

 

That said, I don't think Arenado is seriously in the conversation, especially given where his team is.

[David]

Defense must've just updated because Seager is within a tenth of a win of Bryant now and KB was a half win clear yesterday.

[muntjack]

I'm aware of the hangover effect, I just think it's been exaggerated because of those tough road parks you mentioned. The Rockies have played 19 of their 113 games so far @ SD @SF and @ LAD. Of course those teams have to play even more games in bad hitting environments.

 

Home/Away OPS

 

Cargo 1.117/.760

Story 1.086/ .746

Arenado 1.072/ .788

Lemahieu 1.049/ .676

Mark Reynolds .874/ .700

Blackmon .892/.816 (!)

 

I get that it's not completely black and white here, but if you want an MVP, you can't get almost all your numbers at home in the greatest hitting environment ever by arguing that you have to play 30 games in tough parks. (for what it's worth, Arenado has done pretty well in those parks this year).

[BigSlick]

Wow I had no idea the Coors effect was getting even more stark with the years. I thought they were making progress with the humidors and balls, but clearly not.

[David]

I'm aware of the hangover effect, I just think it's been exaggerated because of those tough road parks you mentioned. The Rockies have played 19 of their 113 games so far @ SD @SF and @ LAD. Of course those teams have to play even more games in bad hitting environments.

 

Whether it's the hangover or the pitchers parks (it's a bit of both), it's nevertheless explanation for why the splits are so drastic for Rockies players. It doesn't really matter which one it is more of.

 

It's silly to try to belittle Arenado's numbers because the split, in a relatively small sample, appears more pronounced for him this year. Kris Bryant had inexplicable home/road splits last year. This year they're backwards. A lot of that is just happenstance. The numbers that reflect the effect of the tough road parks and the possible hangover effect are much broader and more meaningful.

 

As for the topic of this thread, it doesn't really matter because he's not actually in the MVP conversation, but yeah.

[David]

Wow I had no idea the Coors effect was getting even more stark with the years. I thought they were making progress with the humidors and balls, but clearly not.

 

Being on the Rockies means you'll have very pronounced home/road splits. It doesn't mean that that same player being on another team wouldn't have pretty similar overall numbers (with less severe splits).

[BigSlick]

Remember it's not just the park and the flight of the ball that changes, but pitchers breaking stuff. From what I remember, Coors significantly depresses the drop that breaking pitches have, so Rockies hitters can adjust to what "seems" right at home and then be totally baffled when they go to everywhere else in America and its completely different.

 

I feel bad for pitchers coming up in the Rockies system more than anything.

[David]

Remember it's not just the park and the flight of the ball that changes, but pitchers breaking stuff. From what I remember, Coors significantly depresses the drop that breaking pitches have, so Rockies hitters can adjust to what "seems" right at home and then be totally baffled when they go to everywhere else in America and its completely different.

That is what is primarily being referenced with the speculation about the hangover effect in the past few posts.

[UMFan83]

Wow I had no idea the Coors effect was getting even more stark with the years. I thought they were making progress with the humidors and balls, but clearly not.

 

They even raised the walls this year to try to kill some of those HRs and turn them into doubles, but if anything the Coors effect seems stronger this year if you go by ESPN's park factors.

[soccer10k]

Kershaw still leads all pitchers in fWAR.

 

Was just about to post this. His last start was June 26 (so 6-8 fewer starts than the guys around him, which is 25-33% of the season to date) and the closest person is 0.7 fWAR behind him. If you go bWAR, Scherzer just passed him (4.7-4.5) and he's made 8 more starts than Kershaw.

[Sammy Sofa]

Has Bryant always had such bad forehead acne and I've just been oblivious to it?

[David]

Yeah he tends to

[Omar]

Express uses heavy makeup to hide it.

[Soonernation]

Think he needs to pick up his pace over the last 46 games; 3 homers and only 7 rbi's since the All Star Break but the batting average I think has actually been pretty good. I love Kris as a player but an MVP probably should be better than 1 for 11 with the bases loaded on the season.

[Tim]

I'm sorry, but that may be the most meaningless complaint ever.

[Cubswin11]

Daniel Murphy is only 2 for 8 with the bases loaded this year, throw him out of the MVP conversation too.

[David]

Think he needs to pick up his pace over the last 46 games; 3 homers and only 7 rbi's since the All Star Break but the batting average I think has actually been pretty good. I love Kris as a player but an MVP probably should be better than 1 for 11 with the bases loaded on the season.

 

lmao i thought they didn't make posts like this anymore

[jersey cubs fan]

Think he needs to pick up his pace over the last 46 games; 3 homers and only 7 rbi's since the All Star Break but the batting average I think has actually been pretty good. I love Kris as a player but an MVP probably should be better than 1 for 11 with the bases loaded on the season.

 

lmao i thought they didn't make posts like this anymore

vintage, artisinal arguments are better than all the rest

[UMFan83]

Think he needs to pick up his pace over the last 46 games; 3 homers and only 7 rbi's since the All Star Break but the batting average I think has actually been pretty good. I love Kris as a player but an MVP probably should be better than 1 for 11 with the bases loaded on the season.

 

lmao i thought they didn't make posts like this anymore

 

But he just doesn't *LOOK* like an MVP

[CubColtPacer]

I can't fault anyone who uses clutch stats as part of deciding on awards. A clutch stat is a very helpful descriptive stat to show how a player contributed to his team in that particular year, even if it should be completely dismissed for predictive purposes. And at least it is descriptive of what that player actually did unlike traditional more team based stats like wins or RBI's.