6/15 Cubs (Hammel) @ Nationals (Strasburg) 3:05 WGN

[soccer10k]

Cubs made us sweat it out but pulled out the victory. They'll go for the series win against Strasburg, who has been excellent this year, but not as dominant as his perfect 10-0 record. That, and the Nats' 12-1 record in his starts, is also due to their offense putting up 6.85 runs per game in his starts.

 

He's not going to be perfect all year, this is as good of a game as any to hand Strasburg his first loss.

[chuckywang]

Happy birthday Dusty

[BigSlick]

Good Jason today, please

[Omar]

Cubs v. Strasburg

Name             PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Jason Heyward    38 34 14  3  0  1   4  3  6 .412 .474 .588 1.062  0  0   0   1         0
Miguel Montero   16 12  2  0  0  0   1  4  2 .167 .375 .167  .542  0  0   0   0         0
Chris Coghlan    14 12  0  0  0  0   0  2  1 .000 .143 .000  .143  0  0   0   0         0
Dexter Fowler     9  9  3  0  1  0   1  0  2 .333 .333 .556  .889  0  0   0   0         0
Anthony Rizzo     7  7  2  0  0  0   2  0  2 .286 .286 .286  .571  0  0   0   0         0
Ben Zobrist       3  3  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Trevor Cahill     2  2  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Travis Wood       2  2  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000 .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Total            91 81 21  3  1  1   8  9 15 .259 .341 .358  .699  0  0   0   1         0
Has not faced: Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Tim Federowicz, David Ross, Addison Russell and Matt Szczur & Has not faced pitchers: Jake Arrieta, Justin Grimm, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Clayton Richard, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Adam Warren

 

Dusty Baker's Nads v. Hammel

Name              PA  AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Ryan Zimmerman    40  38 12  3  0  1   6  2  5 .316 .350  .474  .824  0  0   0   0         4
Stephen Drew      23  20  4  1  0  0   0  3  4 .200 .304  .250  .554  0  0   0   0         0
Jayson Werth      18  16  3  0  0  1   1  2  3 .188 .278  .375  .653  0  0   0   0         0
Bryce Harper      17  14  2  0  0  1   2  2  5 .143 .235  .357  .592  0  1   0   0         0
Danny Espinosa    14  10  3  1  0  0   1  3  4 .300 .462  .400  .862  1  0   0   0         0
Daniel Murphy     13  12  6  2  0  0   0  1  1 .500 .538  .667 1.205  0  0   0   0         0
Wilson Ramos      11   9  3  0  0  2   2  2  2 .333 .455 1.000 1.455  0  0   0   0         0
Anthony Rendon    11  11  2  1  0  0   0  0  2 .182 .182  .273  .455  0  0   0   0         1
Chris Heisey       5   5  1  0  1  0   0  0  1 .200 .200  .600  .800  0  0   0   0         1
Ben Revere         5   5  1  1  0  0   0  0  0 .200 .200  .400  .600  0  0   0   0         0
Gio Gonzalez       4   3  1  1  0  0   0  0  2 .333 .333  .667 1.000  1  0   0   0         0
Jose Lobaton       4   2  1  1  0  0   0  2  1 .500 .750 1.000 1.750  0  0   0   0         0
Tanner Roark       4   4  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Clint Robinson     3   3  1  0  0  0   0  0  1 .333 .333  .333  .667  0  0   0   0         0
Max Scherzer       2   2  1  0  0  0   0  0  0 .500 .500  .500 1.000  0  0   0   0         0
Joe Ross           1   1  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0
Total            175 155 41 11  1  5  12 17 32 .265 .335  .445  .780  2  1   0   0         6
Has not faced: Michael Taylor & Has not faced pitchers: Matt Belisle, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, Felipe Rivero, Sammy Solis, Stephen Strasburg and Blake Treinen

[UMFan83]

Today's starters by ERA:

 

Hammel - 2.36

Strasburg - 3.03

 

Today's starters by FIP:

 

Hammel - 3.70

Strasburg - 2.77

 

Today's starters by xFIP:

 

Hammel - 4.12

Strasburg - 2.78

[Omar]

Hammel's starts have the worst Adjustment to Team Rating on FiveThirtyEight out of any Cubs starter

 

and this is one of the few games where Cubs are not favored by sir Nate Silver and company.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Congrats on your double Albert, have fun facing Strasburg

[BigSlick]

Hammel's starts have the worst Adjustment to Team Rating on FiveThirtyEight out of any Cubs starter

 

and this is one of the few games where Cubs are not favored by sir Nate Silver and company.

Hendricks v. Scherzer also gave a slight edge to the Nats

 

I'm actually kinda shocked Hammel's peripherals are so "bad" (a 3.70 ERA isn't all that awful at the end of the day). I remember him actually pitching very very well for the first starts of the year and only has he seemed completely off course around that leg injury. He's walking an extra batter per 9 from last season, and his strike out rate is slightly lower, so yeah.

 

Get better Jason.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Get 1st half Hammel performance, make Strasburg throw a lot of pitches, beat Nats bullpen late. Profit.

[UMFan83]

Hammel's starts have the worst Adjustment to Team Rating on FiveThirtyEight out of any Cubs starter

 

and this is one of the few games where Cubs are not favored by sir Nate Silver and company.

Hendricks v. Scherzer also gave a slight edge to the Nats

 

I'm actually kinda shocked Hammel's peripherals are so "bad" (a 3.70 ERA isn't all that awful at the end of the day). I remember him actually pitching very very well for the first starts of the year and only has he seemed completely off course around that leg injury. He's walking an extra batter per 9 from last season, and his strike out rate is slightly lower, so yeah.

 

Get better Jason.

 

I think a big reason is that Hammel is a fly ball pitcher that typically has a FB/HR rate around 12-12.5%, and this year its at 8.7% which would be among the best 10 or so pitchers in the NL (i think). He has allowed only 15% of his runners to score when usually it is about 22-28%. Also his BABIP against is at .251 this year after being around .280ish the last few years. His peripherals suggest he is getting unsustainably lucky.

[Cubswin11]

Big test for Almora today, interested to see how he looks at the plate and in CF. I like piggybacking a day off for a regular like Fowler with a scheduled off day the day after.

[UMFan83]

Big test for Almora today, interested to see how he looks at the plate and in CF. I like piggybacking a day off for a regular like Fowler with a scheduled off day the day after.

 

Yes Maddon seems to like to do that, I approve especially with the next 6 games coming against teams that are technically the closest to us in the division.

[treebird]

i am going to the game again so watch this space for the definitive almora defensive report

 

also even though the cubs won yesterday if they lose today i promise to run on the field and do forehead drugs

[Andy]

Big test for Almora today, interested to see how he looks at the plate and in CF. I like piggybacking a day off for a regular like Fowler with a scheduled off day the day after.

 

Yes Maddon seems to like to do that, I approve especially with the next 6 games coming against teams that are technically the closest to us in the division.

Yep, the division is under control as it is but might as well be at full strength to really go into burial mode.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

i am going to the game again so watch this space for the definitive almora defensive report

 

also even though the cubs won yesterday if they lose today i promise to run on the field and do forehead drugs

 

beef nacho libre AHEM TREYMON attacking poor thomas jefferson

 

[BigSlick]

Hammel's starts have the worst Adjustment to Team Rating on FiveThirtyEight out of any Cubs starter

 

and this is one of the few games where Cubs are not favored by sir Nate Silver and company.

Hendricks v. Scherzer also gave a slight edge to the Nats

 

I'm actually kinda shocked Hammel's peripherals are so "bad" (a 3.70 ERA isn't all that awful at the end of the day). I remember him actually pitching very very well for the first starts of the year and only has he seemed completely off course around that leg injury. He's walking an extra batter per 9 from last season, and his strike out rate is slightly lower, so yeah.

 

Get better Jason.

 

I think a big reason is that Hammel is a fly ball pitcher that typically has a FB/HR rate around 12-12.5%, and this year its at 8.7% which would be among the best 10 or so pitchers in the NL (i think). He has allowed only 15% of his runners to score when usually it is about 22-28%. Also his BABIP against is at .251 this year after being around .280ish the last few years. His peripherals suggest he is getting unsustainably lucky.

These are bad scary things because I already bang my head against the wall during his starts

[CubinNY]

Keep it close and be patient at the plate. Get Strasburg out by the 6th and let Dusty make poor bullpen decisions. Cubs win 5-3.

[Omar]

[muntjack]

I believe tomorrow is the last day off until the ASB. Seems pretty rough.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

This isn't exactly an inspiring pitching match-up, but I've got faith. Let's jump on him early and get a nice cushion. Being 6-1 against the second-best team in the league would be swell.

[David]

ZOBRIST!!!

[BigSlick]

Zobi! a good start!

[UMFan83]

Good way to start the game :)

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Well, that's an auspicious start.

[CubinNY]

Ben Zobrist. Say His Name!