cubs are down 2-0 in the nlcs. what are their chances of coming back to win?

[treebird]

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

[Guest]

ask me in 12 hours

 

 

(my answer was 20-30%)

[weis21]

30-40 percent. They win tonight and set the stage for a magical comeback.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

i am insane

[CubInOK]

I didn't die from the meth I injected in my forehead, so I'm now insane.

[Guest]

100% they win in 6.

[jersey cubs fan]

I had them sweeping in 4, so being down 0-2 doesn't really change the end result.

[UMFan83]

If they win tonight, my feelings about this series improve dramatically. Right now I think around 30-40%

[Guest]

I had them sweeping in 4, so being down 0-2 doesn't really change the end result.

They didn't want Artieta and Lester to have to go on too long of a rest between series. Plus all three home game revenues and getting to see sad Mets fan in their home park game six just made the most sense to punt these first two. (Also a extra chance to hit up another Broadway show).

[Guest]

If they win tonight, my feelings about this series improve dramatically. Right now I think around 30-40%

 

yeah. i am a little deflated but i'll be back in full blown cubs hype mode if they win tonight. especially if the dong show returns to wrigley.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

0%. Also Arrieta's arm falls off due to the innings he's logged this year. We spend the entire offseason going betting everything on a Heyward chase only for him to decide to take less money to go back to St. Louis, after which anyone else worth spending money on is already gone. Castro has yet another prolonged slump in the first half in 2016, Baez sucks as the starting 3b (Bryant in CF), we go -4 against pythagorean in the first half, and we limp to a 79-83 finish.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

0%. Also Arrieta's arm falls off due to the innings he's logged this year. We spend the entire offseason going betting everything on a Heyward chase only for him to decide to take less money to go back to St. Louis, after which anyone else worth spending money on is already gone. Castro has yet another prolonged slump in the first half in 2016, Baez sucks as the starting 3b (Bryant in CF), we go -4 against pythagorean in the first half, and we limp to a 79-83 finish.

http://33.media.tumblr.com/add3806c6d39ad1158c8cc7c6e7a2cf4/tumblr_n800ubSgwR1rvnnvyo1_250.gif

[Derwood]

0%. Also Arrieta's arm falls off due to the innings he's logged this year. We spend the entire offseason going betting everything on a Heyward chase only for him to decide to take less money to go back to St. Louis, after which anyone else worth spending money on is already gone. Castro has yet another prolonged slump in the first half in 2016, Baez sucks as the starting 3b (Bryant in CF), we go -4 against pythagorean in the first half, and we limp to a 79-83 finish.

 

http://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/844/459/459844.gif

[George Hayduke]

There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:

[sneakypower]

#wearedead :(

[SouthSideRyan]

There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:

 

That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

 

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40

[Guest]

on the other hand, fortunately, in such a small sample, the odds are pretty easily defied.

[George Hayduke]

There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:

 

That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

 

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40

Yeah, you're right, I sucked that up.

 

That is...far more depressing.

[rocket]

sweep the 3 games at wrigley and then everything starts to go wrong

[Guest]

sweep the 3 games at wrigley and then everything starts to go wrong

Ooohhh, next poll idea; predict the reason the curse continues. We've had a black cat, fan interference, a botched DP... decades of organizational incompetence. Probably something with Castro (#13)

[Liam Neeson]

FATALISM THREAD 2.0

 

NICE, GLAD TO BE HERE

 

GIF IS RELEVANT

 

[rocket]

sweep the 3 games at wrigley and then everything starts to go wrong

Ooohhh, next poll idea; predict the reason the curse continues. We've had a black cat, fan interference, a botched DP... decades of organizational incompetence. Probably something with Castro (#13)

 

jay cutler sings 7th inning stretch, rizzo gets hit in the head and dies next pitch

[Guest]

Hm maybe lightning strikes the old scoreboard and kills everyone in the stadium. Except the Mets who decided to grab a drink at Murphys Bleachers during the rain delay.

 

That's game 5 obviously, which the Cubs win 75-2 after the game is called due to rain after 7. A Dan Vogelbach led team of minor league misfits puts on their best dongsmith impression and win game 6 but narrowly lose game 7 on a Daniel Murphy walk off to (insert Cubs minor league pitcher who we later learn is gay).

[wvcbxl]

Randomness favors the Cubs. 8-)

[Guest]

There are 15 possibilities remaining for the W/L outcomes of the rest of the NLCS. Five of them with the Cubs winning it, ten of them with the Mets winning it. So even if you thought each game was a total coin flip, the Cubs have a 33% chance of coming back. If you think the Cubs are actually the better team (I do) and also factor in that the Cubs have an extra home game in the remaining five (if you think HFA means something), I'd put the odds somewhere in the upper 30's, maybe 40% Not fantastic, but far from impossible. That said, tonight is pretty much must-win, or the odds drop to single digits. :beg:

 

That's unfortunately not how the calculation works. Think of it a team down 3-0 needing to win 4 in a row to win a series (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.0625=6.25%) whereas your calculation puts it at 1 potential outcome for the 0-3 team, and 4 for the 3-0 team 20%-80%

 

Our current coin flip chances are 15.625% which funnily nobody has selected. *I took 30-40

 

Not that it would change which option but wouldn't the coin flip chances be 18.75%? A 6.25% of winning each of the next four plus four 3.125% chances of winning in 7 (Cubs losing one of Game 3, 4, 5 and 6 but winning the other four).