Cubs 2015 #17 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #17 prospect.

 

Cast votes for the players you think would be deserving at #17. You can vote for up to two players. This is done because at this point, there will start to be greater diversity in whom people may feel is deserving. Voting for multiple players helps to gain greater resolution in the voting when there are many choices and relatively few voters. Ideally, the votes would be weighted, but that isn't possible with the board software.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

#5 CJ Edwards

#6 Billy McKinney

#7 Gleyber Torres

#8 Albert Almora

#9 Pierce Johnson

#10 Duane Underwood

#11 Jen-Ho Tseng

#12 Jake Stinnett

#13 Mark Zagunis

#14 Eloy Jimenez

#15 Dan Vogelbach

#16 Carson Sands

[Guest]

I went with Caratini and Rivero again.

 

btw - this might not be a bad time to start nominating additional people to put on the list.

[sneakypower]

Szczur and Rivero

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Szczur and Rivero

Yet Szczur has 0 votes so far...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Szczur and Rivero

Yet Szczur has 0 votes so far...

 

Weird, I thought I voted for him too.

[craig]

Caratini and Rivero.

[ctcf]

Caratini and Szczur

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Caratini, Steele.

[Guancous]

It's amazing that there are still 25th man options left at the #17 pick.

 

In most systems that's automatic top 10 fodder.

 

Szczur would be in the top 5 of at least three systems.

[sneakypower]

Szczur and Rivero

Yet Szczur has 0 votes so far...

i'm on mobile, i'll get around to it

[toonsterwu]

Caratini and ... I'm not real sure. Rivero was the first thought, but I also like Jonathan Martinez a bit. My excuse for pushing Martinez up higher than most guys with a similar profiles would be that his potential to have two quality secondary offerings might kick it up. Still, feels a bit early. Not inclined to go Black or Blackburn here - the former's pen readiness is, on paper, behind Rivero's, and the latter's ceiling is too fringy here and I like Martinez, I think, a tick more. Szczur/Hannemann would be two similarly guys, but going for Szczur here seems like a nod to the spring, as I wouldn't have had him here pre-Spring. I'm intrigued with Cease/Steele, but really want to see how they show when healthy before buying.

 

Dunno. I feel like I'm going to vote Candelario. It's not that I really buy him - it's that, the profile looks like it's still good enough to fit him in this high. He's only going be 21, the offensive upside is still there by most accounts. I think he does better in A+ than he did last year, and with a little luck on his side, I could even see some sort of breakout offensive season occurring. May switch it to Rivero later.

[Guest]

Here are some possible names for the next list. Let me know which I should add and which aren't needed now (or at all) or if I missed someone...

 

Ha

Lopez

Watkins

Villanueva

Geiger

Chen

Silva

Darvill

Amaya

Remillard

Chesny Young

Lockhart

Dunston

Balaguert

Martin

Penalver

Burks

Malave

Mitchell

Ho-young Son

 

And whatever pitchers someone cares to nominate.

[toonsterwu]

It's amazing that there are still 25th man options left at the #17 pick.

 

In most systems that's automatic top 10 fodder.

 

Szczur would be in the top 5 of at least three systems.

 

I'll bite ... with the rash of system rankings out, which 3 systems would you place him top 5?

 

The Detroit Tigers are largely considered to have the worst system these days. Yet, I'm not sure I place Szczur, prior to this spring stretch, ahead of Hernan Perez, who was the 5th prospect on BA's list for the Tigers. Perez had hit better than Szczur in recent years and shows more versatility, being able to play middle infield. Their number 6 prospect for the Tigers was James McCann, and I'm a bit biased, as I've liked him for awhile, but ... a catching prospect who can hit and is decent the plate has some solid value. BA's 10th best prospect would be Dixon Machado, a, IIRC, good defensive shortstop who hit in AA last year and has a solid approach at the dish. I think there's a case for Szczur over Machado before this spring (Machado's ceiling is probably utility depth (seems like there are some who feel he is growing into some more offense, so there's a chance it could be more)... essentially what they hope Hernan Perez can be ... but it's debatable, despite showing well last year, if the bat gets him there) ... but I think there's probably a case for Machado over Szczur as well (if you buy last season as a sign of improvement from Machado offensively, then sure, a good defensive shortstop with offensive skills ...).

 

Now ... if this Szczur is the real Szczur ... then sure, but this Szczur only has a limited sample based on ST and that's such a small SS to plop him in the top 5 of systems, IMO.

Edited April 3, 2015 by toonsterwu

[Cubswin11]

Caratini and Szczur

[craig]

Here are some possible names for the next list. Let me know which I should add and which aren't needed now (or at all) or if I missed someone...

..And whatever pitchers someone cares to nominate.

 

Include Skulina.

[craig]

....Dunno. I feel like I'm going to vote Candelario. It's not that I really buy him - it's that, the profile looks like it's still good enough to fit him in this high. He's only going be 21, the offensive upside is still there by most accounts. I think he does better in A+ than he did last year, and with a little luck on his side, I could even see some sort of breakout offensive season occurring. May switch it to Rivero later.

 

Interesting call. I've kind of forgotten about him, kind of like Christian Villanueva. For a guy who is going to be a defensive liability at any position, Canderalio has had .741, .742, and .667 OPS in his three US years in the US, and got worse when he repeated at Kane County last year. (.742 2013, .727 2014).

 

Guys often plateau or regress a bit, then can sometimes take a significant step. So hopefully that's his deal this year. Kind of a forgotten memory for me.

[toonsterwu]

To be quite honest, craig, prior to your post about Candelario being a "vet" in another thread, I had sort of forgotten about him as well, as I haven't been making lists in ages and was going off names that people had.

 

I don't "buy" Candelario yet. That is, I'm not exactly going to say, he's a guy I'd bet on. That said ... at 18 in the system ... the offensive upside, is by most accounts, still there, and he's only 21. There were those reports that was too tentative at Daytona, and that he might've fixed it in KC. Again, not "buying" him, but as a ceiling nod? I can't think of many people in the system, at this point in the list, with a higher offensive ceiling (and IIRC, there were reports that his defense might be a tick improved ... still may have to move off third in the long run, though), and he's only age 21 in A+ ball next year, not exactly old. On paper, the profile - a young guy in A+ with good offensive ceiling - seems reasonable here, even accounting for the fact that this is a repeat year.

[craig]

"Ceiling" is hard for me to get a handle on, or to get too interested in. Hitting fast-moving baseballs is really hard. I'm thinking that if a guy has trouble hitting for three straight years, it probably reflects that his ceiling probably isn't that high. He's just missing something. Won't shock me at all if he blossoms into a .750+ OPS guy in A-ball this year, though, which could support a winning team there.

 

I feel differently about pitcher ceiling. Guys who have very good arms do sometimes find a new grip, add a new pitch, adjust their delivery, and go from not-very-good to good. Samardz, arrieta, there are other examples. But how many hitters mechanically adjust themselves from bad to good?

 

If he's our best hitting prospect at this point, I'd be voting for a bunch of pitchers!

[Bilbo161]

It's amazing that there are still 25th man options left at the #17 pick.

 

In most systems that's automatic top 10 fodder.

 

Szczur would be in the top 5 of at least three systems.

Yea I'm convinced that Szczur's spring indicates nice things ahead. He is starting to use his lower body better in his swing.

 

I voted Szczur, Caratini

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

guys that are voting for szczur, where would you be voting for him if not for his spring?

[George Hayduke]

The influx of Szczur votes in this round is interesting to me. He had 4 votes in the 16th round, 2 each in the 15th and 14th, 1 in the 13th, and nothing before that.

 

I assume it's mostly due to the Szczur voters here responding to a great Spring and thinking the mechanical changes he's made to his swing are for real and indicative of how he'll perform in the future. But if that's true, he probably deserves a spot higher than 17th place.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't care about the mechanical changes so much as the fact that he's actually going to be on the roster and appears to have passed Lake on the depth chart.

 

The chance that he puts up positive WAR this year puts him ahead of some rando A-ball guy or recent 4th-round pick.

[craig]

I don't care about the mechanical changes so much as the fact that he's actually going to be on the roster and appears to have passed Lake on the depth chart. The chance that he puts up positive WAR this year puts him ahead of some rando A-ball guy or recent 4th-round pick.

 

Duck, until this spring I'd have figured that even if he did make the team or pass Lake, that he'd be totally the definition of a replacement-level player. (Or sub-replacement-level, even if he was forced onto the roster.) I think the nice spring and the adjustments are what provide (for me at least) the hope that he might be both on the roster and capable of providing above-replacement performance.

[rawaction]

I don't care about the mechanical changes so much as the fact that he's actually going to be on the roster and appears to have passed Lake on the depth chart.

 

The chance that he puts up positive WAR this year puts him ahead of some rando A-ball guy or recent 4th-round pick.

 

I'm pretty sure I passed Lake on the depth chart. That's not an accomplishment.