Prospect #15 Runoff!!!

[toonsterwu]

The only reason to vote for Carson Sands is SNT syndrome.

 

Rankings are obviously for discussion, but ceiling is always a significant aspect of it. Certainly, risk is another factor, but positional value would also be another concern. To simply label a vote for Sands as SNTS ... I mean, put it this way ... I would have more concerns with several guys ranked ahead at their respective spots than I would have with Sands here. Now ... I actually have a guy ahead of Sands that's left, but he's not in the runoff.

 

I get the vote for Vogelbach, and I understand the apprehension on Sands. There's certainly immense risk with pitchers, particularly this far away. Heck, we don't have to look too far back to find an arm in the system that was hyped, and flamed/never got started (Dillon Maples). The thing with me is, Vogelbach is at a position where he needs to mash, and he needs to show it at higher levels. I think Vogelbach is a better hitter than Mark Canha/Kyle Blanks, but I'm not convinced that the profile for him demands a lot more attention than those guys did when they were in A+. Ike Davis looked like a star in A+ ... hasn't happened. Justin Smoak, Matt LaPorta - both stalled out. (I think people forget what a monster LaPorta looked like he would be when he hit ... uh what level was he at before the trade?)

 

We can obviously find positives. There's the obvious Billy Butler one, and I actually think Yonder Alonso is a decent comp. The problem is, at his position, he really needs to mash to consistently, and at higher levels, and even then, it's a debatable proposition, and he needs the opportunity, as first base is often the refuge of aging players. Maybe one has a gut feeling on Vogelbach that they feel that strongly about (in all honesty, I think, if the opportunity is there, Vogelbach probably reaches the bigs, and probably hits relatively well), but while I like Vogelbach enough, I don't have that gut feeling. A 3 pitch lefty with a potential mid-rotation ceiling (and it honestly wouldn't stun me if, assuming positive development, that he ends up better than a mid-rotation arm) is tantalizing enough for me to go with him over Vogelbach here.

[craig]

Thanks for the pro-Vogelbach argument, Tim. Well articulated. The fundamental uncertainty I have with the argument is whether it's appropriate to project A-ball stats to the majors? Maybe it is in his case, and that proves true for a number of successful major leaguers.

 

Based on his numbers, he could become the Billy Butler of A-ball for the next decade. But our real question is whether he'll be able to become the Billy Butler of the NL? (Mentioning the Butler analogy made me look at Butler's stats, and Butler is probably typical for most big-leaguers: more often than not a guy's big-league stats aren't as good as his minor league stats.)

 

For Vogelbach, we are basically asking that his big-league stats match his minor league stats, and in the case of HR's to exceed them. For some guys that does indeed happen. But more often than not it doesn't. Good likelihood that his K-rate will rise, for example, and his walk-rates will go down. (Although hitting more HR's in majors than minors, that's pretty frequent, I think....)

 

While it's perhaps less than probable that Vogelbach will be able to have big-league stats that match or exceed his minor league stats, I do realize that we're at #15 in our rankings here. Big-league success is presumably less-than-probable for all of the candidates at this point.

[Guest]

The only reason to vote for Carson Sands is SNT syndrome.

 

Rankings are obviously for discussion, but ceiling is always a significant aspect of it. Certainly, risk is another factor, but positional value would also be another concern. To simply label a vote for Sands as SNTS ... I mean, put it this way ... I would have more concerns with several guys ranked ahead at their respective spots than I would have with Sands here. Now ... I actually have a guy ahead of Sands that's left, but he's not in the runoff.

 

I get the vote for Vogelbach, and I understand the apprehension on Sands. There's certainly immense risk with pitchers, particularly this far away. Heck, we don't have to look too far back to find an arm in the system that was hyped, and flamed/never got started (Dillon Maples). The thing with me is, Vogelbach is at a position where he needs to mash, and he needs to show it at higher levels. I think Vogelbach is a better hitter than Mark Canha/Kyle Blanks, but I'm not convinced that the profile for him demands a lot more attention than those guys did when they were in A+. Ike Davis looked like a star in A+ ... hasn't happened. Justin Smoak, Matt LaPorta - both stalled out. (I think people forget what a monster LaPorta looked like he would be when he hit ... uh what level was he at before the trade?)

 

We can obviously find positives. There's the obvious Billy Butler one, and I actually think Yonder Alonso is a decent comp. The problem is, at his position, he really needs to mash to consistently, and at higher levels, and even then, it's a debatable proposition, and he needs the opportunity, as first base is often the refuge of aging players. Maybe one has a gut feeling on Vogelbach that they feel that strongly about (in all honesty, I think, if the opportunity is there, Vogelbach probably reaches the bigs, and probably hits relatively well), but while I like Vogelbach enough, I don't have that gut feeling. A 3 pitch lefty with a potential mid-rotation ceiling (and it honestly wouldn't stun me if, assuming positive development, that he ends up better than a mid-rotation arm) is tantalizing enough for me to go with him over Vogelbach here.

If we're going to start listing comps that flamed out, the list will get awfully long for pitchers who look good in rookie ball.

 

I was being over the top in saying that the only reason to vote for Sands is SNT syndrome. But while the ceiling may be higher (and even that is arguable if V turns his bp power into game power), the risks of Sands completely flaming out before reaching the bigs may literally be 10x higher than Vogelbach.

[toonsterwu]

That's fair. I only brought up comps because you noted Butler (and as noted, I actually think he's probably closer to Alonso than some of the negative comps ... don't think, at the same age/level, he was as good as Alonso, but there's more similarities with him than with some of the other guys).

 

At the end of the day, at this juncture of the rankings, I'll buy ceiling (and I think Sands ceiling could be really superb). As a tendency, there are certain profiles of guys that simply have to prove it to me up the ladder (command pitchers without plus pitches, guys whose value is based heavily on their hit tools, first basemen), so it would be somewhat fair to view my runoff vote more as a concern on Vogelbach than a nod to Sands (although I probably would've gone Caratini/Sands/Vogelbach in that order). Again, I'm not that concerned about Vogelbach being able to hit in the bigs if the stars aligned (don't know how much power ... but I think he can probably hit up the ladder), but the profile bothers me enough here, and I try to avoid going on gut feelings (although that' s impossible, as we all have our biases and there's certainly a level of a "gut feeling" nod to go with Sands ahead of Vogelbach).

 

I can definitely understand it the other way. I think Sands ceiling is higher, but yes, it is fair to say his risk factor is monumentally higher than Vogelbach's, considering age/level, being a pitcher and so forth. In some respects, it sort of comes down to how I view Sands ceiling - if I simply viewed him as a lefty with "just" mid-rotation ceiling, I probably wouldn't put him ahead. But I think Sands might be better than that in time.

[Clem Fandango]

For funsies... Vogelbach's .787 OPS was 6th best in the FSL last season among qualified leaders. And every player with a higher OPS than him had fewer home runs than his 16. In fact the HR totals for the qualified #1-5 OPS leaders was:

 

1) 12

2) 10

3) 13

4) 10

5) 13

 

Offense is scarce, and Vogelbach's bat needs to be taken into that context. Here's some more context: FSL Home Run leaders and their corresponding OPS:

 

1) Adam Brett Walker - 25 HR (.743 OPS)

2) Art Charles - 19 HR (.733 OPS)

3) Victor Roache - 18 HR (.697 OPS)

4) James Robbins - 17 HR (.669 OPS)

T-5) Eric Jagielo - 16 HR (.813 OPS)

T-5) Dan Vogelbach - 16 HR (.787 OPS)

 

Jagielo did not qualify for the OPS leaderboards because he only played in 85 games. Point is... offense is a rare commodity. Just because our cup runneth over with it doesn't make Vogelbach's an afterthought.

 

Also Vogelbach's 66 walks were 2nd best in the FSL. Actually here's all of Vogelbach's FSL rankings:

 

R - 7th

H - T-9th

2B - T-9th

HR - T-5th

RBI - T-3rd

TB - 4th

BB - 2nd

OBP - T-11th

SLG - 11th

OPS - 6th (MiLB.com only listed qualified leaders)

 

Also for more funsies, the K/BB% of all the players who hit as many, or more home runs than Vogelbach (16% / 12%). I'll BOLD the ones that are better than Vogelbach's rates and BOLD ITALICIZE those that are equal...

 

Eric Jagielo (16 HR) - 26% / 11%

James Robbins (17 HR) - 31% / 4%

Victor Roache (18 HR) - 29% / 8%

Art Charles (19 HR) - 31% / 9%

Adam Brett Walker (25 HR) - 28% / 8%

 

Well, while we're at it, let's do K/BB% for every player in the FSL who hit 10 or more HR, because I'm bored and this is fun...

 

Austin Green (15 HR) - 17% / 4%

Brian Pointer (15 HR) - 27% / 10%

David Washington (15 HR) - 29% / 9%

Connor Harrell (14 HR) - 25% / 7%

Patrick Leonard (13 HR) - 21% / 10%

Viosergy Rosa (13 HR) - 20% / 8%

Bruce Caldwell (12 HR) - 26% / 7%

Rock Shoulders (12 HR) - 31% / 15%

Dwight Smith, Jr. (12 HR) - 13% / 11% (one of a few players who were legitimately better than Vogelbach offensively)

Dalton Hicks (11 HR) - 19% / 12% (24 years old)

Jeff McVaney (11 HR) - 16% / 8% (24 years old)

Kevin Patterson (11 HR) - 27% / 11%

Anthony Garcia (10 HR) - 16% / 10% (.227/.320/.385 slash line)

Peter O'Brien (10 HR) - 24% / 3%

Justin O'Conner (10 HR) - 23% / 4%

Jose Osuna (10 HR) - 18% / 7%

Jairo Perez (10 HR) - 12% / 3% (26 years old)

Bijan Rademacher (10 HR) - 20% / 10%

Kyle Schwarber (10 HR) - 20% / 14%

 

So those who had a better or equal K% than Vogelbach with 10 or more homer runs out of 24 players...

 

Jairo Perez (26 years old)

Anthony Garcia (crap slash line)

Jeff McVaney (24 years old)

Dwight Smith, Jr. (legitimately better)

 

And those with a better walk rate:

 

Kyle Schwarber (a beautiful manly man with manly hitting prowess)

Dalton Hicks (24 years old)

Rock Shoulders (31% K rate)

 

That's it. When it comes to not striking out, hitting home runs, and drawing walks, those are the players who are better than Vogelbach. Only Schwarber and Smith are legitimately better than Vogelbach on that list at hitting, and all other are pretty much worse. There was really only one other player in the FSL that was omitted because he got called up to AA early (only 363 PA's in the FSL) and that was Josh Bell (12% / 7% with a slash line of .335/.384/.502/.886)

 

TL;DR - Offense is hard to come by, and Vogelbach's offense is really good for his level.

[craig]

Logan, thanks for the numbers and work and context there. As interesting (and encouraging) as they are, we do need to keep in context that using qualified-leader-boards has a fundamental limitation: it works for "qualified" leaders. Many of the very best prospects get promoted mid-season, and thus don't have their rate-successes appear on "qualified" leader boards. They also don't appear favorably on volume leader lists, because of the truncation.

 

I'm not trying to disrespect Vogelbach here; but there may be some guys who started in FSL who got promoted while Vogel didn't. And others who started in low-A who got promoted up to FSL. I haven't actually looked, but in the Southern League Bryant, Soler, and Russell were three awesome prospects. Their awesomeness is probably not well reflected in the qualified-leader-boards.

 

But those numbers do remind that the volume and quality of really productive hitters on the FSL qualified leader board is quite limited.

[Clem Fandango]

As far as I gathered, the only thing MiLB only adjusted for qualified leaders was OPS, everything else was for both qualified and unqualified leaders alike. So really him being 6th in OPS and the Eric Jagielo note were the only things affected by "qualified" status

[Guest]

As far as I gathered, the only thing MiLB only adjusted for qualified leaders was OPS, everything else was for both qualified and unqualified leaders alike. So really him being 6th in OPS and the Eric Jagielo note were the only things affected by "qualified" status

But he spent the whole season there while many better prospects won't.

[Clem Fandango]

As far as I gathered, the only thing MiLB only adjusted for qualified leaders was OPS, everything else was for both qualified and unqualified leaders alike. So really him being 6th in OPS and the Eric Jagielo note were the only things affected by "qualified" status

But he spent the whole season there while many better prospects won't.

 

There's also no rush to move him through the system since he and every other 1B in the system is blocked at 1B by Rizzo and Vogelbach needs work on his defense. The Cubs would actually benefit from not moving someone like Vogelbach through the system quickly so they can let him adjust to each level so he can put up better numbers which would increase his trade value and prepare him more for the next level he following year (or if you're a dreamer it'll delay his arrival until MLB adopts the DH in the NL). I bet even if Vogelbach hits .300+ with 20+ homers in AA they won't move him to AAA until 2016. They don't gain anything by rushing someone like Vogelbach through the system. And no one is saying Vogelbach is going to be a good 1B. He's a DH in waiting. But we're discussing the merits of his bat being good vs. not being good enough, and the figures I presented were there to indicate that yes, Vogelbach's bat IS good enough to justify his selection here (and in previous rounds, AFAIC). Those numbers were there to show that there were very few hitters at Vogelbach's level who could match his power, patience, and contact output. His bat is great. Everything else? Yeah, it kinda sucks, but a weak offensive environment makes his bat valuable.

 

Also there were not a whole lot of flashy names that came through the FSL this past season. Maybe 6 at the most. Nimmo, Bell, Pompey, Herrera, Jorge Polanco... that's about it as far as I can see.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=f30f4291

 

Plus how other teams handle their prospects bears zero significance on how the Cubs handle theirs. Other teams have different priorities and evaluate their players differently. Dilson Herrera got called up to AA after 67 FSL games when he hit .307/.355/.410/.765 with 3 HR and an 18:44 BB:K ratio. He's a 20 year old 2B that the Mets actually called up to the majors later in the year. He's cut from another cloth, and you can't compare Vogelbach to someone like him, or the reasons he was called up so soon. The Mets need a 2B, they rushed him through the minors and skipped him over AAA. The Cubs don't need a 1B, and Vogelbach needs to work to his defense. There was no logical reason to move him to AA. That doesn't diminish what Vogelbach is or what he can be to a team in the future.

[jumbo]

For funsies... Vogelbach's .787 OPS was 6th best in the FSL last season among qualified leaders. And every player with a higher OPS than him had fewer home runs than his 16. In fact the HR totals for the qualified #1-5 OPS leaders was:

 

1) 12

2) 10

3) 13

4) 10

5) 13

 

Offense is scarce, and Vogelbach's bat needs to be taken into that context. Here's some more context: FSL Home Run leaders and their corresponding OPS:

 

1) Adam Brett Walker - 25 HR (.743 OPS)

2) Art Charles - 19 HR (.733 OPS)

3) Victor Roache - 18 HR (.697 OPS)

4) James Robbins - 17 HR (.669 OPS)

T-5) Eric Jagielo - 16 HR (.813 OPS)

T-5) Dan Vogelbach - 16 HR (.787 OPS)

 

Jagielo did not qualify for the OPS leaderboards because he only played in 85 games. Point is... offense is a rare commodity. Just because our cup runneth over with it doesn't make Vogelbach's an afterthought.

 

Also Vogelbach's 66 walks were 2nd best in the FSL. Actually here's all of Vogelbach's FSL rankings:

 

R - 7th

H - T-9th

2B - T-9th

HR - T-5th

RBI - T-3rd

TB - 4th

BB - 2nd

OBP - T-11th

SLG - 11th

OPS - 6th (MiLB.com only listed qualified leaders)

 

Also for more funsies, the K/BB% of all the players who hit as many, or more home runs than Vogelbach (16% / 12%). I'll BOLD the ones that are better than Vogelbach's rates and BOLD ITALICIZE those that are equal...

 

Eric Jagielo (16 HR) - 26% / 11%

James Robbins (17 HR) - 31% / 4%

Victor Roache (18 HR) - 29% / 8%

Art Charles (19 HR) - 31% / 9%

Adam Brett Walker (25 HR) - 28% / 8%

 

Well, while we're at it, let's do K/BB% for every player in the FSL who hit 10 or more HR, because I'm bored and this is fun...

 

Austin Green (15 HR) - 17% / 4%

Brian Pointer (15 HR) - 27% / 10%

David Washington (15 HR) - 29% / 9%

Connor Harrell (14 HR) - 25% / 7%

Patrick Leonard (13 HR) - 21% / 10%

Viosergy Rosa (13 HR) - 20% / 8%

Bruce Caldwell (12 HR) - 26% / 7%

Rock Shoulders (12 HR) - 31% / 15%

Dwight Smith, Jr. (12 HR) - 13% / 11% (one of a few players who were legitimately better than Vogelbach offensively)

Dalton Hicks (11 HR) - 19% / 12% (24 years old)

Jeff McVaney (11 HR) - 16% / 8% (24 years old)

Kevin Patterson (11 HR) - 27% / 11%

Anthony Garcia (10 HR) - 16% / 10% (.227/.320/.385 slash line)

Peter O'Brien (10 HR) - 24% / 3%

Justin O'Conner (10 HR) - 23% / 4%

Jose Osuna (10 HR) - 18% / 7%

Jairo Perez (10 HR) - 12% / 3% (26 years old)

Bijan Rademacher (10 HR) - 20% / 10%

Kyle Schwarber (10 HR) - 20% / 14%

 

So those who had a better or equal K% than Vogelbach with 10 or more homer runs out of 24 players...

 

Jairo Perez (26 years old)

Anthony Garcia (crap slash line)

Jeff McVaney (24 years old)

Dwight Smith, Jr. (legitimately better)

 

And those with a better walk rate:

 

Kyle Schwarber (a beautiful manly man with manly hitting prowess)

Dalton Hicks (24 years old)

Rock Shoulders (31% K rate)

 

That's it. When it comes to not striking out, hitting home runs, and drawing walks, those are the players who are better than Vogelbach. Only Schwarber and Smith are legitimately better than Vogelbach on that list at hitting, and all other are pretty much worse. There was really only one other player in the FSL that was omitted because he got called up to AA early (only 363 PA's in the FSL) and that was Josh Bell (12% / 7% with a slash line of .335/.384/.502/.886)

 

TL;DR - Offense is hard to come by, and Vogelbach's offense is really good for his level.

 

I'm voting Vogelbach

[rawaction]

Eh. How Vogelbach is doing compared to major leaguers is irrelevant to me. How he's doing relative to his league does have some merit, but like Craig said, counting only qualifiers (I know, nothing you could do) doesn't really tell the whole story.

 

Bottom line is he's a player who's only value will come from having a dominant bat, and he hasn't shown he can dominate the low levels of the minor leagues. Not asking him to put up Bryant, Schwarber numbers, but the only thing he does that's special is walk. That's a good skill to have, but he looked like he was going to hit for way more power after putting up 17 HRs in 283 ABs in rookie and SS ball. And not only is his power going down at each level, his average is too, which could be expected. He needs a big year at AA this year to stay on the radar for me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm just not sure being the 6th-best hitter in one of three A+ leagues puts Vogelbach on a track to be a good enough hitter in the majors to be valuable with his skill set.

[Bilbo161]

Nice arguments guys. Changed my vote to DV. However, someone want to tell me what SNTS stands for? So not the star? Some nut that sucks? Tried Googling but couldn't find anything that made sense.

[JeffH]

Nice arguments guys. Changed my vote to DV. However, someone want to tell me what SNTS stands for? So not the star? Some nut that sucks? Tried Googling but couldn't find anything that made sense.

 

Shiny New Toy Syndrome.

[toonsterwu]

Some Nut That Sucks ... that's good. Much better than Shiny New Toy Syndrome.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nice arguments guys. Changed my vote to DV. However, someone want to tell me what SNTS stands for? So not the star? Some nut that sucks? Tried Googling but couldn't find anything that made sense.

 

Shiny New Toy Syndrome. Looking back at the last few of these, the most recent year's non-first draftees are always overrated.

[Bilbo161]

Some Nut That Sucks ... that's good. Much better than Shiny New Toy Syndrome.

 

Thanks Toonster. You too Hairy...(not you toonster. :)) And Jeff!

[Guest]

There's also no rush to move him through the system since he and every other 1B in the system is blocked at 1B by Rizzo and Vogelbach needs work on his defense. The Cubs would actually benefit from not moving someone like Vogelbach through the system quickly so they can let him adjust to each level so he can put up better numbers which would increase his trade value and prepare him more for the next level he following year (or if you're a dreamer it'll delay his arrival until MLB adopts the DH in the NL).

 

 

Ya, I didn't mean to imply that it was a strike against him. Was just expanding on what craig was saying in terms of his standing relative to the league on counting stats.

[craig]

I'm just not sure being the 6th-best hitter in one of three A+ leagues puts Vogelbach on a track to be a good enough hitter in the majors to be valuable with his skill set.

 

There are 15 AL teams, and not all have a primary designated hitter. Many use that kind of as a rotation job. (Rest function for regular position players, give some AB to bench guys to keep them sharp.) So, it's not that easy to get a job as a primary DH, and there aren't many teams looking very hard to trade a lot of value for DH. To make it as a long-term regular DH, or to make it as a DH prospect for which teams offer significant value for in trade, that requires some fairly serious hitting value.

 

Maybe being one of the 20 best hitters in the three A+ leagues in a given year is a pretty nice platform for getting there. A bunch of the better top-20 hitters in the three A+ leagues are older and don't project well. And a bunch of the other ones will be good enough to play a position, so they won't be competing for DH jobs.

[Cubswin11]

I did a quick search and found the following players in 2014 who managed 20 hr, >= 11.5% walk rate and <= 16% strikeout rate:

 

Jose Bautista

Edwin Encarnacion

David Ortiz

 

 

People are way, way underestimating Vogelbach.

Ran this again with more wiggle room for performance: 20+ HR, >= 10% BB, <= 18% K

 

Andrew McCutchen

Jose Bautista

Victor Martinez

Matt Holliday

Edwin Encarnacion

David Ortiz

LaHair and Hoffpaur were pretty good in the minors too

[sneakypower]

good point

 

new strategy: get players who aren't good in the minors

[Clem Fandango]

I did a quick search and found the following players in 2014 who managed 20 hr, >= 11.5% walk rate and <= 16% strikeout rate:

 

Jose Bautista

Edwin Encarnacion

David Ortiz

 

 

People are way, way underestimating Vogelbach.

Ran this again with more wiggle room for performance: 20+ HR, >= 10% BB, <= 18% K

 

Andrew McCutchen

Jose Bautista

Victor Martinez

Matt Holliday

Edwin Encarnacion

David Ortiz

LaHair and Hoffpaur were pretty good in the minors too

 

Yeah, at 27

[Guest]

This one may end up a tie

[craig]

I have Vogelbach behind Sands and several other guys still on the list, so I didn't vote for him. But, if this is looking like a tie, I'll happily flip my vote for Vogelbach, just to get this runoff resolved, and to move on to other guys. Part of the fun is just seeing how different posters evaluate guys and getting insights into the players.

 

This has been the best and most thorough Vogelbach discussion yet, so from my view I don't want to have the Vogelbach issue recurring again and again for 16, 17, and 18, even if he's only 21 on my list.

 

So, if flipping my vote to Vogelbach helps us to put him behind us and move on, I'm good with that. It's not like I have great confidence that there is much separation between the six guys I still have ahead of Vogelbach and Vogelbach and the six guys I have behind him anyway. So if he comes in at 15, no problem.

 

OK, I've just talked myself into it. I'll go flip my vote to Vogelbach right now, to give him a bigger lead. I'll check back later and see if Sands has caught or passed, and if so then I'll flip my vote back to Sands. :)

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

justice has been served.