Cubs 2015 #6 Prospect

[Tim]

Make your choice for the Cubs 2015 #5 prospect.

 

Later on, we'll move to a system of multiple votes, but I think it makes sense at the top to just vote for a single player.

 

If you want to have a player added to the list, please say so.

 

#1 Kris Bryant

#2 Addison Russell

#3 Jorge Soler

#4 Kyle Schwarber

#5 CJ Edwards

[Some Guy]

Not sure yet what to think of Torres (esp how good his defense is), but I still prefer Almora to McKinney.

 

Almora career .751 OPS, reaching a higher level, with 12% K rate and premium defense. The way the FO talks about him is just talk, sure, but it still sounds sincere and encouraging.

 

McKinney career .784 OPS with 17% K rate and tweener OF profile. 4 months younger, but hasn't played AA yet and has less pedigree.

[SouthSideRyan]

Not sure yet what to think of Torres (esp how good his defense is), but I still prefer Almora to McKinney.

 

Almora career .751 OPS, reaching a higher level, with 12% K rate and premium defense. The way the FO talks about him is just talk, sure, but it still sounds sincere and encouraging.

 

McKinney career .784 OPS with 17% K rate and tweener OF profile. 4 months younger, but hasn't played AA yet and has less pedigree.

 

Mckinney's career walk rate is 10.3% and was better than that last year. Almora's is 3.6% and managed to be worse last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I feel like this is where you have to start reaching for young guys that haven't done anything as pros.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I voted for the guy who has the same future position as No. 5 except with better stuff and success at a higher level.

[SouthSideRyan]

Poor Kyle is going to vote for the same guy from #5 until he actually gets picked around 11.

 

Why is Mejia back in the poll again?

[ctcf]

Went with McKinney

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I went with McKinney for #4, so obviously gonna stick with him here.

[Cubswin11]

Torres

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I voted for McKinney then changed it to Torres. I'll probably change my mind a few more times today.

[Guest]

McKinney. Reposting from the #5 thread:

 

Here's the FSL leaders with a minimum of 200 PA (McKinney had 210). http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=10&qual=200&type=1&season=2014&team=0&players=0

 

Sort by OPS, wOBA, wRC+, the order doesn't really change. At the top you've got Nimmo, Josh Bell, Pompey, a handful of 25+ year olds, and then McKinney, who's still 2 years younger than any of the names I called out.

[Some Guy]

I voted for the guy who has the same future position as No. 5 except with better stuff and success at a higher level.

 

...who is 4 years older and gives up way more HRs and hits.

[Some Guy]

McKinney. Reposting from the #5 thread:

 

Here's the FSL leaders with a minimum of 200 PA (McKinney had 210). http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=10&qual=200&type=1&season=2014&team=0&players=0

 

Sort by OPS, wOBA, wRC+, the order doesn't really change. At the top you've got Nimmo, Josh Bell, Pompey, a handful of 25+ year olds, and then McKinney, who's still 2 years younger than any of the names I called out.

 

.377 BABIP in 210 FSL PAs. He had 50% more PAs on Oakland's high-A team and didn't do nearly as well.

 

Of course Almora needs to become more selective to succeed, but if he does he will probably show more power than McKinney too - while being a for-sure plus CF with excellent contact ability.

[Guest]

McKinney. Reposting from the #5 thread:

 

Here's the FSL leaders with a minimum of 200 PA (McKinney had 210). http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=10&qual=200&type=1&season=2014&team=0&players=0

 

Sort by OPS, wOBA, wRC+, the order doesn't really change. At the top you've got Nimmo, Josh Bell, Pompey, a handful of 25+ year olds, and then McKinney, who's still 2 years younger than any of the names I called out.

 

.377 BABIP in 210 FSL PAs. He had 50% more PAs on Oakland's high-A team and didn't do nearly as well.

 

Of course Almora needs to become more selective to succeed, but if he does he will probably show more power than McKinney too - while being a for-sure plus CF with excellent contact ability.

 

Minor leaguers who hit tend to have high BABIPs. Despite that time in Stockton(an even more unsustainable .267 BABIP) being over 40% of his minor league PA, he still carries a .335 career BABIP. Almora has a higher ceiling, but his problems run deeper than worries about McKinney's offense tailing off at higher levels. At the same level and age, McKinney had a 55 point edge in wOBA, that requires more defense than Almora has to give to make up for me, especially given that Almora certainly didn't do anything to assuage those plate discipline concerns at Tennessee.

[Tryptamine]

I went with McKinney. He walks, doesn't K a concerning amount and is extremely young for his league(Could be 20 in AA this year). He doesn't have a huge ceiling, but I could envision him as a 280/350/450 guy in the majors if everything went right. Next year I'll probably have Torres higher if he succeeds in full season ball, but for now I'll take McKinney's history.

[Guest]

Why is Mejia back in the poll again?

Aww, heck.

 

I'll try to remember next poll.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I voted for the guy who has the same future position as No. 5 except with better stuff and success at a higher level.

 

...who is 4 years older and gives up way more HRs and hits.

 

Hits don't matter. I'm really curious about how Edwards' HR rate reacts to higher levels. Nobody can be *that* good at not getting taken deep.

[CubsWin]

I usually lean towards ceiling in prospect rankings, and I believe that Torres has a pretty high floor as well, but I need to see him in full season ball before I can put him ahead of what McKinney did as a 19-year-old in High-A.

[craig]

Torres, McKinney, Almora, Underwood, etc., a lot to still like here.

 

Arguments for any of them, and each has a chance to become a really valuable contributor.

 

I think I'll just go Torres here. Why not, hoping he'll become a top-notch defender who's a good all-around hitter and ends up with 15-HR power so that power isn't a liability. Castro was one of the best offensive SS's in baseball with 14 HR's. If Torres can have similar power, with a lot more walks/OBP, and be a much superior/smarter defensive guy, the value could be massive. (Perhaps for us, perhaps in trade.)

 

*If* Almora could somehow learn to hit, his ability to play CF combined with his power potential could be a really good fit on the roster. If that were safe or sure, he'd not still be available for spot #6. But there has been enough contact success and scouting respect for his swing; it's too soon to dismiss his chance to blossom into a variably capable hitter, even if his walks are low. Sure he had a terrible year, with ridiculous leg kick, all grounders, resulting lowsy BABIP, and no walks. But I think he may improve a lot on each one of those. I particularly think his power-potential is underrated. He's not Bryant/Baez, but he's a pretty big guy, and his BP power is excellent. "If" things do work for him, I think he'll drive more balls in the air and pull more balls, both of which will boost his HR output. I'm hoping.

 

HItting is the hardest/rarest gift in baseball. McKinney may have it. His HR potential may be being undersold, and that's key. 11 HR's as a teenager in A+ is promising, even if inflated by Cal League. Some of HR power is strength, but much is contact and leverage. With physical maturation, and given his pure hitting knack, I think he might mature into a 20 HR guy. A 20+ HR guy with walks and contact could be a super valuable regular, even in LF. I'm hoping he's just such a really good hitter that some of the good contact will just naturally end up over the wall.

[Some Guy]

Hits don't matter. I'm really curious about how Edwards' HR rate reacts to higher levels. Nobody can be *that* good at not getting taken deep.

 

How do you mean hits don't matter? His H, HR and K numbers say that his stuff is somehow very hard to square up. Higher level hitters will of course be better at it, but there's no reason to think his advantage relative to other pitchers will disappear.

 

I like your love of Rivero but I don't think Edwards should be brought down to the level of a 27 year old for-sure reliever whose numbers in fewer US innings are worse.

[craig]

Hits don't matter. I'm really curious about how Edwards' HR rate reacts to higher levels. Nobody can be *that* good at not getting taken deep.

 

How do you mean hits don't matter? His H, HR and K numbers say that his stuff is somehow very hard to square up. Higher level hitters will of course be better at it, but there's no reason to think his advantage relative to other pitchers will disappear.

 

I like your love of Rivero but I don't think Edwards should be brought down to the level of a 27 year old for-sure reliever whose numbers in fewer US innings are worse.

 

Rivero's K-rate is pretty stunning, so his stuff seems especially hard to square up. He's got a chance to be very good, in the pen. My concern there is the control, obviously. I think the point is valid, that Rivero's K-rate is more stunning, dominant at a higher level; given that Edwards is likely to end in relief anyway, it's not obvious that he'll be as good or better in relief than will be Rivero. You'll get the same 6 years of club control either way.

 

I agree the issue of the HR's is central to Edwards. Obviously the rate has been so low that it won't sustain against big leaguers. But if it's real, the result of late motion on the fastball, that may translate well into the majors. We'll see.

 

For both, control is very much in question. Edwards was erratic this year, and isn't a control ace. Rivero has always seemed kinda wild. Not sure whether either will improve, or how their current level of inconsistency will play against major-league bats if they don't improve. Some of the scouts who love edwards seem to think his delivery mechanics are simple enough and repeatable enough so that he will perhaps be able to have rather good control. We'll see.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How do you mean hits don't matter?

 

I mean I don't care even the tiniest bit about how many hits a minor-leaguer gives up. K's, HRs, BBs, groundball/FB ratio, all stats I might care about. H or H/9? Nope.

[craig]

If you're K-ing everybody like Rivero, won't be a lot of hits. When you're K'ing a lot like Edwards, and don't allow any over-the-wall hits, you also won't allow many hits. Over-the-wall hits are hits too. The worst kind.

[Guest]

I mean, I get the difference, but "I don't care how hittable Edwards is, now if I could only figure out why he doesn't give up home runs" is still hilarious.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I mean, I get the difference, but "I don't care how hittable Edwards is, now if I could only figure out why he doesn't give up home runs" is still hilarious.

 

Do you get the difference between "I'm curious if he can maintain it in the majors" and "I don't understand why"?