2015 Bears Offseason (Foxy new Head Coach page 104)

[jersey cubs fan]

Anyways if you support a one year punt, the best option would be keeping the coaching staff, or at least Trestman. Emery ain't gonna screw up the personnel portion this offseason, but if he sticks with Trestman there's a decent chance 2016 is the new regime. Could we go for it then or will we have to concede 2016 so the new regime gets their obligatory tank job out of the way.

 

 

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That makes no sense whatsoever.

[jersey cubs fan]

Seems so weird to want to punt NFL seasons.

It's not losing on purpose, it's making massive overhauls. Cut ties with old guys and bring in a boatload of youth. Hell, that can result in better records during those seasons than the ones that precipitated them.

[WrigleyField 22]

Anyways if you support a one year punt, the best option would be keeping the coaching staff, or at least Trestman. Emery ain't gonna screw up the personnel portion this offseason, but if he sticks with Trestman there's a decent chance 2016 is the new regime. Could we go for it then or will we have to concede 2016 so the new regime gets their obligatory tank job out of the way.

 

 

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That makes no sense whatsoever.

Sure it does. There would be no better way to punt next season than bring back these coaches.

Seems so weird to want to punt NFL seasons.

It's not losing on purpose, it's making massive overhauls. Cut ties with old guys and bring in a boatload of youth. Hell, that can result in better records during those seasons than the ones that precipitated them.

Oooh you mean exactly what they've been doing, or are you talking about getting rid of Emery picks just cuz they're Emery picks? There's a ton of old guys everyone's talking about moving on from... They're the bad old ones.

 

There are some old guys that are still good. So you're dumping them in favor for "young guys". You've established you don't believe in "developmental guys" which is like everyone out of the top 3 rounds at least. And you're not gonna get much in the way of top three picks from our available players and there aren't generally super young FAs though if there are, they will obviously help us win and signing them is opposite of punting.

 

I mean what is this punt you're even talking about? Change for the sake of change? There's very little cap to gain by walking away from guys currently. I mean like you could cut someone like Benett, but again what's the point? He can help us in 2015 and 2016.

 

Go look at our roster and our cap (I recommend over the cap). We've been overhauling and bringing in a buttload of youth.

 

 

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[WrigleyField 22]

We are an old team, both in average age and in Football Outsiders Weighted Snap Average Age (number one last year and we'll be near top this year, though they don't keep this up to date in season it appears).

 

However, in context of where we're heading, we're in a natural position to get younger and better. Here are the biggest contributors to our rosters age this year so far

63 Roberto Garza

55 Lance Briggs

90 Jay Ratliff

69 Jared Allen

58 D.J. Williams

6 Jay Cutler

26 Tim Jennings

15 Brandon Marshall

74 Jermon Bushrod

88 Dante Rosario

21 Ryan Mundy

 

Those 11 guys are a combination of old and playing a lot of snaps. Only guy of note missing is Peanut who we would have expected to contribute to our aging problem, but didn't due to injury. Looking at the list, there's a couple really obvious answers to get younger that would be supported by just about anyone. Garza, Briggs, Williams, Rosario (Mundy borderline). Ratfliff is still productive, but most would support a lessened role with the young DT contributing more. Same thing with Allen regarding a reduced role. Both of these guys are very clearly on 2015 windows. But we won't get anything moving them either. Bushrod is on a boderline 2015/16 window, but you don't sub in OL so you won't partially reduce his snaps and again won't hold trade value. Cutler isn't really old in QB terms. Just leaves Marshall and Jennings as aging guys that we are counting on in a meaningful way. We are set up for a natural progression to get younger, so it just comes down to adding the best possible players with those replacements, and they're likely to be young contributors. Refreshing the roster and trying to win just go hand in hand. There isn't a tear down effect really needed. If there was ever confusion that letting guys like Briggs walk was a "tear down" as opposed trying to improve the team, I'm not sure what to say.

 

If anyone wants to see my analysis on our age, let me know and I'll post it to a google doc.

[WrigleyField 22]

Part Five of my Offseason Plan

 

Part One: Bill Polian - President of Football Operations

Part Two: Tom Heckert - General Manager

Part Three: Chris Polian - Dir Pro Personnel; Adam Peters - Dir of College Scouting; Cliff Stein - retained VP of operations

Part Four: Jack Del Rio - Head Coach

 

Offensive Coaching staff.

 

This is going to be my first speculative hire. It has two requirements.

1) Joe Philbin is fired as HC of Miami

2) Tom Clements takes some HC interviews, but stays as OC of Green Bay (thus not opening up a natural OC spot for Philbin).

 

Yep, we're hiring former GB OC and Miami HC Joe Philbin. Obviously was OC during Rodgers early years and put up some great offenses there. While he hasn't been great in Miami, I think he's done well this year utilizing Tannehill's strengths. Any team would be lucky to have him as an OC (even though he wasn't a play caller in GB).

 

Offensive Assistants - On black Monday when Emery is canned, Trestman, Kromer, Tucker, and DeCamillis will be canned. Any other assistant will be kept on if they are under contract and it will be up to the new staff to make a decision on. NOT a Marenilli situation, the new HC has full autonomy. You don't hold back letting anyone take a lateral move if they want it, hoping they'll save you the salary hit.

Peete (RB) and Groh (WR) will stay. Cavanaugh (QB) will be let go or allowed to leave. The most directly Trestman guys - the CFL guys (Meyer-OL, Bischoff-TE, Nugent and Walsh QC) are all let go. At QB Coach, Philbin brings his current QB coach in Miami, Zac Taylor. For OL option one is an attempt to rob the current OL coach and former Philbin colleague, James Campen. To get the move you have to give a promotion as Run game coordinator and assistant head coach. If GB still blocks, plan two is the current asst- OL coach under Philbin, Jack Bicknell Jr. I'm not gonna try and predict something as lowly as Quality Control coaches. TE Coach, Philbin also takes with him his TE coach, Dan Campbell.

 

Failing Philbin there are plenty of experienced offensive coaches not currently serving as OC I'd look at (Rob Chudzinki, Rick Dennison, Bill Callahan, Scott Linehan). Not aware of any "up and comers" that are hot OC names.

 

So your offensive Coaching staff (highly speculative)

OC - Joe Philbin, OL/Run Cord. - James Campen , QB - Zac Taylor, RB - Skip Peete, WR - Mike Groh, TE- Dan Campbell. Add about 2-3 other assistants.

 

Next up, defensive coaches.

[WrigleyField 22]

Part Six - Defensive staff.

 

Obviously we have a defensive coach now. Thus he'll have a heavy hand on the defense. Defense assistants are same deal as offensive assistants.

 

There is a twist. There won't be a full "defensive coordinator". Del Rio will call defensive players. However he'll tab two top assistants as Run Defense and Pass defense coordinators. You could call one of them Defensive coordinator, but it wouldn't change much. You might need to in order to hire away one of them.

 

Current staff: Hoke is gone. Even though he was at one time pretty highly thought of, no assistant survives two HC. So are Pasqualoni and Herring. I could imagine a scenario they stay on, but this won't be the one. Desai gone. Harris and Hurtt stay.

 

Passing Game Coordinator/ DB Coach.

Cory Undlin. Currently Del Rios DB coach and has a long history with him.

 

Running Defense Coordinator / DL Coach

Karl Dunbar. A Former Bears DL Coach who did strong work with Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson. He'll be jobless when Rex is canned in New York. Bring him in to continue where Pasquanoli left off. Del Rio does have a mutual connection with Rex Ryan (served as D assistants together in Balt)

 

LB Coach

Honestly just tossing curve balls at this point. Aging DC of Michigan Wolverines, Greg Mattison decides to try his hand in the NFL again rather than stick in the college game. Another mutual connection to Balt. Also I kind of like Jake Ryan as a third round candidate in the draft, so hey, cool. And I had to get a least one college hire.

 

Hurtt is asst D Line coach. Harris is asst DB coach/safeties. Hire a couple defensive QC guys.

 

Part Seven : Special Teams.

Special Team Coordinator. Brock Olivo currently Asst ST coach in KC. He has ST coordinator experience at lower levels and has spent the past year under the best ST coach in the league? Good enough for me. And since Asst ST coordinator is up there with QC coaches, I'll just retain Dwayne Stukes, because [expletive] it.

[UMFan83]

For draft positioning here is how week 15 shook out:

 

Good:

Carolina beats TB (we aren't going to pass TB so it's good)

Giants beat Washington (same situation here)

 

Bad:

Jets beat Tennessee (both teams had same record but jets hold the tiebreaker over us because we beat them H2H)

St. Louis loses to Arizona

Atlanta loses to Pittsburgh

Minnesota loses to Detroit

 

With a loss tomorrow, the 5-9 Bears would be tied with the Giants and Falcons for 7-8-9 picks. If H2H really ends tiebreakers, the Bears can't pass up the Jets, so the only team the Bears could jump beyond NYG and ATL is Washington, who is 3-11. So the best pick we can get is probably 7th.

[WrigleyField 22]

For draft positioning here is how week 15 shook out:

 

Good:

Carolina beats TB (we aren't going to pass TB so it's good)

Giants beat Washington (same situation here)

 

Bad:

Jets beat Tennessee (both teams had same record but jets hold the tiebreaker over us because we beat them H2H)

St. Louis loses to Arizona

Atlanta loses to Pittsburgh

Minnesota loses to Detroit

 

With a loss tomorrow, the 5-9 Bears would be tied with the Giants and Falcons for 7-8-9 picks. If H2H really ends tiebreakers, the Bears can't pass up the Jets, so the only team the Bears could jump beyond NYG and ATL is Washington, who is 3-11. So the best pick we can get is probably 7th.

More or less unchanged then based on projections.

[WrigleyField 22]

Well I think I'm gonna hold off a detailed player portion of my off season plan. But I think it's fairly straightforward and I've mentioned in pieces before. And it doesn't really change much regardless of the FO moves.

 

Should have at around 20-25M in cap space to use where I'd want to get at least a couple DBs. Possibly a C if you feel DLP cannot be your stop gap starter. Only one young center with solid experience, and it was a Chiefs pick from Emery's time there, so if Emery is still the GM it wouldn't surprise me. Otherwise the young FA centers are inexperienced. So you aren't going to get any younger than DLP unless you are willing to take basically a first time starter. So no matter what it probably isn't a cost issue and you have to decide between inexperienced youth or experienced and aging.

 

Top three rounds in the draft I'd like to see defense twice and OL. Probably leaning towards the front 7 for the D as I'd put more of the FA focus on DBs. Though at least one young DB in the later rounds would be nice. Day three is just BPA though.

 

Either in the draft or among FA I'd try to bring in a speed slot WR/KR. Someone to be a solid three and form a strong 5 receiver group along with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, Wilson. Wouldn't expect to break the bank in FA here, but look for undervalued guy. Even would consider a trade here giving up our 4th or a later 2016 pick. Look for a failed number one guy who would benefit from the attention paid to Marshall and Jeffery. Thinking along the lines of Eddie Royal in Denver. In fact overall, team speed would be an emphasis.

 

Not predicting anything crazy with current roster like trades or surprise cuts (no money to really be saved with cuts). Bring back Paea and no one else of major significance. Bye to Briggs, Williams, Garza, Conte. Most likely bye to Tillman though if he was unsigned as of June 1 I'd think about bringing him back at the minimum.

 

As for the first 8 parts of my plan that overhauled the FO and coaching staff, I think it's pretty flexible depending on how deep the axe goes. One adjustment I might make though if Trestman stays is with defense, and I'd bring in Wade Phillips and retain DL/LB coaches. Obviously if Trestman stays it complicates the OC portion, so no one as qualified as Philbin is realistic. However the backup options I mentioned could still be possible in a shared offense type scenario, though if Trestman isn't running the offense fully not sure what his purpose is supposed to be. Still if that is the case replicating Kromer's current role with a existing OL coach looking for that coordinator role may be the plan as well. Not my preferred plan for sure.

 

However if Trestman is gone but Emery stays, I'd do something very similar if not exactly that same with the coaching staff. And in this case basically accelerate Steins role in taking over operations from Phillips. Phillips reassignment will be to focus solely on improving our stadium situation again- added seats, more suites, ability to host a SB, etc. His time would be very valuable here and Stein already has in increased league presence that past several years, so it's just adding some of the internal executive roles.

 

 

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[Banedon]

That's an impressive amount of typing via Tapatalk.

[jersey cubs fan]

switched to boers and Bernstein after Lester press conference and it's pretty titillating hearing about Trestman digging his own grave.

[cubbyvirus00]

Don't be too concerned Soul. While his first Bears draft busted, I think the past two improved (even despite a few dumb things like drafting a punter).

 

Looking back at his two Chiefs drafts and Falcons drafts there isn't a huge bust rate. Worst pick was Baldwin (and I think he's a total Emery WR), but you can view those drafts pretty favorably IMO. He won't set us back in the draft.

 

 

Obviously the first draft as a whole was failure but I'm concerned that none of his mid-round picks to this point have really shown anything. I was an Emery fan coming into this season. He seemingly saw some of the same problems with personnel that we did.

[WrigleyField 22]

Two years is still pretty early. Only guy I've really given up on from the 13/14 draft is Greene. He can be a ST but I think that's his ceiling. Bostic, Ego, Sutton have all shown some flashes. We knew Leno and Wilson were projects and Wilsons injury didn't help that. Vereen is basically what I thought he would be as a rookie. Jones has surpassed expectations (at least relative to being undrafted, he did seemingly have a higher grade going in). And as much as spending a pick on ODonnel was stupid he clearly has the physical talent but needs to put it together consistently. So a little light overall, and I tend to think the results would be a little better with better coaching (which is granted on Emery).

 

There is still a lot unanswered with those two groups but if at the time your draft picks hit FA you are retaining and putting about half to good use you've done a good job (I think this is roughly the standard Ozzie Newsome uses and he's pretty well regarded as far as draft GMs). Obviously there's a lot of room for interpretation (ie you can't bat 50% and have all backups), but that's probably a good general goal.

 

 

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[rawaction]

You're going to have to sell me on Jack Del Rio. Seems like a very "Bears" head coaching hire. Though, they don't really hire re-tread coaches, Del Rio strikes me as very unspectacular. The comparison to John Fox doesn't help either as I think Fox is very mediocre and is winning now because of Peyton. I'd like to see a more dynamic, or at least potentially a more dynamic coach.

[UMFan83]

You're going to have to sell me on Jack Del Rio. Seems like a very "Bears" head coaching hire. Though, they don't really hire re-tread coaches, Del Rio strikes me as very unspectacular. The comparison to John Fox doesn't help either as I think Fox is very mediocre and is winning now because of Peyton. I'd like to see a more dynamic, or at least potentially a more dynamic coach.

 

I was going to say I don't think the Bears have ever hired a re-tread head coach, unless you count GSH rehiring himself several times.

 

Del Rio built some pretty nice defenses in Jacksonville, but he seems more like a DC acting as a HC. He was also known for occasionally wearing a suit during games, so that would be fun to see in December in Chicago.

[WrigleyField 22]

Part of it was I am trending towards wanting a guy with HC experience. None of the first time HC excite me that much, though like I said, Quinn was the runner up in this scenario. I'm not opposed to first timers as a hard and fast rule, just none speak to me here. Another former HC I thought about was Hue Jackson.

 

Beyond those two things Del Rios reign in Jacksonville struck me as a reign that put together some really competitive teams in a tough division and fairly balanced. Then the wheels fell apart at the ownership level it seems which hurt the team, got him fired and they still haven't recovered. And I think he's done pretty well with Denvers D. Then the last thing was his Balt connections which should provide plenty of solid coaching connections, and that seems to matter when assembling a staff.

 

I brought up Fox just trying to hit the lowest comparable of "second time D head coach finds success". Ultimately that may not mean much, I'll admit, and is coincidence. If we get that elite QB having a coach who can put together a good D on less resources is appealing to me though, rather than committing a majority of cap and coaching resources to one side.

 

 

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[jersey cubs fan]

But del rio willingly employed tucker

[minnesotacubsfan]

But del rio willingly employed tucker

 

 

And that's just gross

[WrigleyField 22]

But del rio willingly employed tucker

Haha I actually was getting a little bored with this exercise and thought about retaining Tucker just for giggles due to the connection . Somehow Tuckers D's there were ranked 9, 7, and 11 in pass defense (the last being when he called plays).

[minnesotacubsfan]

So, next season when Trestman has two new coordinators, who will they likely be?

[Banedon]

So, next season when Trestman has two new coordinators, who will they likely be?

 

Which coordinator are you keeping? Tucker, Kromer and DeCamillis are all one the way out...they have to be. And then, why on earth would Trestman get to keep his job after all three coordinators are gone?

[minnesotacubsfan]

I'm not saying anything should happen, but Trestman will likely be back. He'll clean house on the coordinators tho leaving big holes to fill. Who fills those holes?

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not saying anything should happen, but Trestman will likely be back. He'll clean house on the coordinators tho leaving big holes to fill. Who fills those holes?

I think likely back is inaccurate

[Banedon]

I'm not saying anything should happen, but Trestman will likely be back. He'll clean house on the coordinators tho leaving big holes to fill. Who fills those holes?

 

Nah, no way they keep Trestman. I think Emery is giving him the rope to hang himself here. I'm not 100% sure Emery survives.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I think Trestman will be back. Philips, Emery and Co have shown enough ineptitude to not change. I don't want Trestman back, but I really think he will be