Week 8: Bears (3-4) @ Patriots (5-2) Noon Fox/780

[Sammy Sofa]

They scored 28 per last year. If they score 28 this year that's 5 wins. Given how the Carolina game went that was also winnable.

 

That's not really how averages work. The Bears scored less than 28 points 9 times last year.

 

Alright, good; I thought I was going crazy. I'm like the biggest idiot with numbers with here and even I knew that his stance was wonky.

[rawaction]

They scored 28 per last year. If they score 28 this year that's 5 wins.

 

Wha? That's not how averages work. That's not a guarantee they're scoring 28 or more.

 

I understand that. Point again...... That's not the 10th best scoring offense in the league. If the Bears were 10th per game, they'd probably have 5 wins instead of 5 losses.

[Sammy Sofa]

They scored 28 per last year. If they score 28 this year that's 5 wins.

 

Wha? That's not how averages work. That's not a guarantee they're scoring 28 or more.

 

I understand that. Point again...... That's not the 10th best scoring offense in the league. If the Bears were 10th per game, they'd probably have 5 wins instead of 5 losses.

 

Maybe. Again, the defense is allowing scoring that even the best offense would have trouble consistently beating. The defense is now the glaring problem; even if they were putting up points like last year there's a good chance they'd only have one more win.

[bleedcubbieblue]

I don't understand how movement in the betting line has any bearing on the game at all.

it doesn't have any bearing on the game at all, it just indicates what "smart money" may be thinking. I believe this is similar to what happened with Bears/Buf at the beginning, most people picked the Bears but the line moved toward Buffalo.

 

I can't believe how today's game was a blue print to that Bears/Buf game!!!

[rawaction]

They scored 28 per last year. If they score 28 this year that's 5 wins.

 

Wha? That's not how averages work. That's not a guarantee they're scoring 28 or more.

 

I understand that. Point again...... That's not the 10th best scoring offense in the league. If the Bears were 10th per game, they'd probably have 5 wins instead of 5 losses.

 

Maybe. Again, the defense is allowing scoring that even the best offense would have trouble consistently beating. The defense is now the glaring problem; even if they were putting up points like last year there's a good chance they'd only have one more win.

 

The defense has been the glaring problem for 2 years now. But this team scored 28 points per game, brought back all 11 starters, and should be better. If the team is still blaming the defense, they're wrong. This team is built to score points. A lot of them. The way the season has gone, the Buffalo, Carolina and Miami losses are on the offense.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's semantics, but please stop saying things like "this team scored 28 points per game." They averaged 28 points a game over the course of the season.

[WrigleyField 22]

Lol that's literally what per game means

 

 

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[Sammy Sofa]

He's been talking about the 2013 team like it was scoring at least 28 points a game; I'm not the only one to have called it out. When you've got someone talking like last year's offense would have all but been a lock to be making up for this year's defense to the point that he thinks the Bears would have 2-3 more wins it's faulty.

[gscool89]

But how were the PFF grades?

[WrigleyField 22]

Its not like they had just a few outliers though. They were 27+ in 9 games. So granted we could be averaging a few more points a game and we wouldn't necessarily win every game where our D gave up under 28 but I think the expectation was we had an offense that could win us games and it hasn't. Even only picking up one of the games would put us in much better shape heading into the bye.

[Sammy Sofa]

Its not like they had just a few outliers though. They were 27+ in 9 games. So granted we could be averaging a few more points a game and we wouldn't necessarily win every game where our D gave up under 28 but I think the expectation was we had an offense that could win us games and it hasn't. Even only picking up one of the games would put us in much better shape heading into the bye.

 

But we've crossed the point where we can say the offense would have/should have carried the team. The defense is THAT bad; again, you're looking at last year's offense maybe winning one more game to this point.

 

Plus the offense last year seemed to be benefiting from a much healthier receiving group and OL. Injuries/regression have to be expected, but at the same time all they had to do was get the defense to be not terrible, and yet somehow it seems even worse at this point. You essentially have a team that seemingly has to have first possession and has to score a TD on that possession just so they can, at best, go blow for blow with the opposing team. I don't care how good your offense is or is supposed to be; if your defense is THIS vulnerable and easily taken down your offense can't carry you. It can't be that lopsided.

[Guest]

@MikeGarafolo: Word on Bears DE Lamarr Houston is the team is fearing a season-ending knee injury. MRI tomorrow to confirm, prepared for bad news.

[rawaction]

He's been talking about the 2013 team like it was scoring at least 28 points a game; I'm not the only one to have called it out. When you've got someone talking like last year's offense would have all but been a lock to be making up for this year's defense to the point that he thinks the Bears would have 2-3 more wins it's faulty.

 

We wanted lower middle of the pack defense, at least the realistic ones did. That's exactly what they've been. Maybe I did simplify it too much originally, but the defense has played well enough in 4 of 8 games that if the offense was playing the way it was capable, they'd have 1 more win. And it's well within the realm of possibility that they win the Miami game, especially since the defense gave up 10 of those 27 on a combined 27 yards due to that poor offense.

 

Oh and what I said and what you are interpreting I said are 2 different things.

[bukie]

We wanted lower middle of the pack defense, at least the realistic ones did. That's exactly what they've been. Maybe I did simplify it too much originally, but the defense has played well enough in 4 of 8 games that if the offense was playing the way it was capable, they'd have 1 more win. And it's well within the realm of possibility that they win the Miami game, especially since the defense gave up 10 of those 27 on a combined 27 yards due to that poor offense.

 

Oh and what I said and what you are interpreting I said are 2 different things.

 

This has not been anywhere near a middle of the pack defense. That is the crux of the issue.

 

"Wildly inconsistent" is about the best thing that could be said about the defense. The offense hasn't been elite, but the defense hasn't given the offense even a modicum of a shot in 3 of the games, couldn't manage one timely stop against Buffalo, and couldn't keep the team within striking distance against Miami (both times the offense got a TD to get back into the game, the D promptly gave up monstrous, clock eating TD drives to kill the momentum).

 

The offense hasn't been elite, but the defense hasn't been middle of the pack either. Injuries can be pointed to both as to the problems (O-line and WR on offense, secondary on defense), but the LB and S play has been the worst in the league, and without Fuller out there today the secondary had about as good a chance at stopping them as a team of high school kickers.

Edited October 26, 2014 by bukie

[WrigleyField 22]

It was looking a bit more middle of the pack before facing NE and GB. By the end of the year we may be looking a back-middle teir D as the expectation was.

 

 

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[WrigleyField 22]

Personally I thought it would take at least two years from the 2013 D to really turn it around, so I always anticipated more work to do this offseason but I definitely had an expectation for the O to do more in the interim to help bridge.

 

 

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[rawaction]

We wanted lower middle of the pack defense, at least the realistic ones did. That's exactly what they've been. Maybe I did simplify it too much originally, but the defense has played well enough in 4 of 8 games that if the offense was playing the way it was capable, they'd have 1 more win. And it's well within the realm of possibility that they win the Miami game, especially since the defense gave up 10 of those 27 on a combined 27 yards due to that poor offense.

 

Oh and what I said and what you are interpreting I said are 2 different things.

 

This has not been anywhere near a middle of the pack defense. That is the crux of the issue.

 

Yet and still, if the offense was living up to its end of the bargain by scoring points and stopping terrible turnovers, they'd be 5-3.

 

Look, I'm not arguing the defense is good. But they've been about what is expected. Completely exposed by great QBs, completely dependent on the turnover. And frankly, for a team that has invested so much in the offensive side of the ball in talent, money and coaching the fact that they aren't good enough offensively is much more concerning.

[UMFan83]

@MikeGarafolo: Word on Bears DE Lamarr Houston is the team is fearing a season-ending knee injury. MRI tomorrow to confirm, prepared for bad news.

 

Between fighting with his teammates, ripping on fans on twitter, inconsistent play and blowing out his knee celebrating a sack with his team down 30 points, it's been an eventful first year for Houston

Edited October 26, 2014 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

Double post Edited October 26, 2014 by UMFan83

[Sammy Sofa]

We wanted lower middle of the pack defense, at least the realistic ones did. That's exactly what they've been. Maybe I did simplify it too much originally, but the defense has played well enough in 4 of 8 games that if the offense was playing the way it was capable, they'd have 1 more win. And it's well within the realm of possibility that they win the Miami game, especially since the defense gave up 10 of those 27 on a combined 27 yards due to that poor offense.

 

Oh and what I said and what you are interpreting I said are 2 different things.

 

This has not been anywhere near a middle of the pack defense. That is the crux of the issue.

 

Right; they basically put together two games where they looked serviceable, but those games are sandwiched by parades of crap and, most disconcertingly, they're trending in the wrong direction.

[Sammy Sofa]

Look, I'm not arguing the defense is good. But they've been about what is expected.

 

Hugely disagree with that; we were expecting/hoping for a mediocre defense.

 

Completely exposed by great QBs, completely dependent on the turnover.

 

The latter isn't what anyone (I hope) was expecting; they are literally dependent on the turnover and have absolutely no other way of stopping the opposing team.

 

And frankly, for a team that has invested so much in the offensive side of the ball in talent, money and coaching the fact that they aren't good enough offensively is much more concerning.

 

But one would assume the offensive talent is still there, unless we're just assuming they've forgotten how to play. The defense was garbage last year and has only gotten worse; that's far more concerning to me because there's not even a baseline of tolerable that we can hope they can back to since for a season and a half now they've shown nothing. An offense simply isn't going to carry a team if you've effectively abandoned half of the team based on the product you've put on the field.

[mul21]

If the offense wasn't complete [expletive], they'd be spending more time on the field and keep the defensive shortcomings from looking as awful as they do. It's certainly not going to solve all problems, but if you score a couple more times against Miami, I'm betting they don't put up 27 because they don't get as many chances.

[Ryne Ween]

Our offense also has, I believe, 15 turnovers in the 8 games. So that's near the worst in the league. This doesn't help hide the defense. The defense is very injured whereas the key offensive players have been playing.

 

Our GM and head coach suck ass they need to go immediately. This will never be successful with these [expletive] dickheads running it. Trestman is absolutely he worst head coaching hire ever.

[rawaction]

Look, I'm not arguing the defense is good. But they've been about what is expected.

 

Hugely disagree with that; we were expecting/hoping for a mediocre defense.

 

Completely exposed by great QBs, completely dependent on the turnover.

 

The latter isn't what anyone (I hope) was expecting; they are literally dependent on the turnover and have absolutely no other way of stopping the opposing team.

 

And frankly, for a team that has invested so much in the offensive side of the ball in talent, money and coaching the fact that they aren't good enough offensively is much more concerning.

 

But one would assume the offensive talent is still there, unless we're just assuming they've forgotten how to play. The defense was garbage last year and has only gotten worse; that's far more concerning to me because there's not even a baseline of tolerable that we can hope they can back to since for a season and a half now they've shown nothing. An offense simply isn't going to carry a team if you've effectively abandoned half of the team based on the product you've put on the field.

 

Well you were wrong hoping for mediocre. They brought back the same shitty LB corps. Got older at S and only improved at nickel with a rookie. With injuries, both units that were among the worst in the league last year got worse. The hope was the DL would hide the deficiencies, but they haven't, though the Bears have been solid against the run for the most part. They have NOT gotten worse. And that's pretty much how the game works now. Nobody can stop any good offense. You hope for a big mistake on the offense (turnover, blown protection for sack, penalty).

 

And there are examples of teams who have basically ignored half the ball and been successful. Last year's Colts, SB winning Saints, etc. Their offenses have been elite though, and the Bears aren't there despite having all the tools to be there and some precedence for it to have happened this year by now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Bears are pretty bad at football.