What will we spend our money on this offseason?

[davell]

http://sports.cbslocal.com/show/670-the-score/

 

Quick snippet from Theo. They're very high on Hendricks and are looking at Schwarber as a C, which could cenceivably knock Martin out of the equation, assuming he'll get a 3-4 year deal.

 

TT, I don't see the Tanaka money as upping our payroll, I agree on it going to a posting fee or like I mentioned earlier, towards an IFA spending spree possibly.

[davell]

Are we all just assuming any bump from a new TV deal(assuming we don't just broadcast half our games radio exclusive) is going to be insignificant?

 

I'm trying to remember, but isn't the CSN half only 200k more per game than the WGN half? If so, short of a true totally renegotiated monster deal prior to when the CSN part is done-Im just not seeing it being worth more than an extra 5-10 mill per year for now.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://sports.cbslocal.com/show/670-the-score/

 

Quick snippet from Theo. They're very high on Hendricks and are looking at Schwarber as a C, which could cenceivably knock Martin out of the equation, assuming he'll get a 3-4 year deal.

 

 

I'm not necessarily all in on Martin, but this is so silly. We hope this guy in A ball can stick at catcher so we're going to resist upgrading the position until we know if he can handle it in 2-3 years.

[davell]

http://sports.cbslocal.com/show/670-the-score/

 

Quick snippet from Theo. They're very high on Hendricks and are looking at Schwarber as a C, which could cenceivably knock Martin out of the equation, assuming he'll get a 3-4 year deal.

 

 

I'm not necessarily all in on Martin, but this is so silly. We hope this guy in A ball can stick at catcher so we're going to resist upgrading the position until we know if he can handle it in 2-3 years.

 

Nah, it's not that as much as whether they think Castillo is a viable stopgap until then. With the possibility of adding competition thru trade for him that doesn't require the monetary funds it'd take to get Martin. No clue what they're opinion on Castillo is now, which is why I brought up Martin to begin with.

[Guest]

That's a bit of a mis-characterization. Schwarber will start in AA next year and the consensus is his bat will be MLB ready shortly thereafter. I don't think you actively avoid catchers because of him, but if they believe that he's a MLB catcher in 2016, he matters when deciding to give Martin a 3-4 deal.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Having too many good players is still not something to be avoided.

[SouthSideRyan]

That's a bit of a mis-characterization. Schwarber will start in AA next year and the consensus is his bat will be MLB ready shortly thereafter. I don't think you actively avoid catchers because of him, but if they believe that he's a MLB catcher in 2016, he matters when deciding to give Martin a 3-4 deal.

 

His bat may be MLB ready (assuming he continues to beat the crap out of the ball), but is anyone expecting him to be ready defensively by 2016? And if they think he has a chance at that, it's more of this kick the can down the road [expletive]. Uh Oh, what if everyone works out to the best case scenario? Then whatever will we do?

Edited August 28, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[sneakypower]

roster holdovers

# 	Pitchers (13) 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB
49 	Jake Arrieta 	R-R 	6'4" 	225 	Mar 6, 1986
       (empty)
28 	Kyle Hendricks 	R-R 	6'3" 	190 	Dec 7, 1989
37 	Travis Wood 	R-L 	5'11" 	175 	Feb 6, 1987
       (empty)

67 	Tsuyoshi Wada 	L-L 	5'11" 	180 	Feb 21, 1981
38 	Jacob Turner 	R-R 	6'5" 	215 	May 21, 1991
52 	Justin Grimm 	R-R 	6'3" 	210 	Aug 16, 1988
53 	Wesley Wright 	R-L 	5'11" 	185 	Jan 28, 1985
54 	Neil Ramirez 	R-R 	6'4" 	190 	May 25, 1989
46 	Pedro Strop 	R-R 	6'1" 	220 	Jun 13, 1985
56 	Hector Rondon 	R-R 	6'3" 	180 	Feb 26, 1988
       (empty)

2 open rotation spots:

-Lester a strong possibility, with Maeda/Shields as Plan B

-assuming above hypo happens, winner of Straily / Turner / Wada EPIC BATTLE goes here

 

-pen spot can be filled with Rivero / Arodys / veteran FA [Romo? Janssen?], or 2 of the above if Turner/Wada move to rotation

-Brett Anderson / Josh Johnson reclamation?

 

# 	Catchers (2) 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB
5 	Welington Castillo 	R-R 	5'10" 	210 	Apr 24, 1987
       (empty)

-Baker hasn't provided much, but seems like affable clubhouse leadership type, and pitchers have fared well with him receiving; FA sucks: Martin will get huge money, so either we just bring back Baker or pursue a trade (Grandal?), with Nick Hundley as maybe a dark-horse possibility

 

# 	Infielders (5) 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB
44 	Anthony Rizzo 	L-L 	6'3" 	240 	Aug 8, 1989
9 	Javier Baez 	R-R 	6'0" 	190 	Dec 1, 1992
13 	Starlin Castro 	R-R 	6'0" 	190 	Mar 24, 1990
24 	Luis Valbuena 	L-R 	5'10" 	200 	Nov 30, 1985
45 	Logan Watkins 	L-R 	5'11" 	195 	Aug 29, 1989

-Watkins is versatile, and Alcantara can fill-in if needed; no changes expected

 

# 	Outfielders (5) 	B/T 	Ht 	Wt 	DOB
       (empty)
7 	Arismendy Alcantara 	S-R 	5'10" 	170 	Oct 29, 1991
68 	Jorge Soler 	R-R 	6'4" 	215 	Feb 25, 1992
6 	Ryan Sweeney* 	L-L 	6'4" 	225 	Feb 20, 1985
20 	Justin Ruggiano* 	R-R 	6'1" 	210 	Apr 12, 1982

-LF is seat-warmer for Bryant: Coghlan makes sense if he doesn't get too overvalued on FA market (Dio Navarro last year), and Szczur's probably a semi-capable call-up if either bench guy has issues

-going after Tomas opens up trade possibilities: Bryant maybe stays at 3B, Castro gets moved for C / SP help - or - DREAM: trade Baez, Almora, Vogelbach, Edwards for Stanton; sign Rickie Weeks for part-time 2B duty

[Guest]

Coghlan is arb eligible, controlled through 2016

[sneakypower]

i just saw we signed him for 1y/$200k and went off that

 

so, even better

[davell]

NM Edited August 28, 2014 by davell

[Guest]

That's a bit of a mis-characterization. Schwarber will start in AA next year and the consensus is his bat will be MLB ready shortly thereafter. I don't think you actively avoid catchers because of him, but if they believe that he's a MLB catcher in 2016, he matters when deciding to give Martin a 3-4 deal.

 

His bat may be MLB ready (assuming he continues to beat the crap out of the ball), but is anyone expecting him to be ready defensively by 2016? And if they think he has a chance at that, it's more of this kick the can down the road [expletive]. Uh Oh, what if everyone works out to the best case scenario? Then whatever will we do?

 

They might think he's ready defensively by 2016, at least to be able to provide a capable tandem with Castillo. I'm not speaking in absolutes here, their thoughts on how quickly he'll come along defensively matter when deciding to give someone like Martin 3+ years.

 

And it's not this all or nothing strawman either. The money you would spend on Martin doesn't evaporate if you're high on Schwarber's defense and decide not to pursue him.

[jersey cubs fan]

That's a bit of a mis-characterization. Schwarber will start in AA next year and the consensus is his bat will be MLB ready shortly thereafter. I don't think you actively avoid catchers because of him, but if they believe that he's a MLB catcher in 2016, he matters when deciding to give Martin a 3-4 deal.

 

His bat may be MLB ready (assuming he continues to beat the crap out of the ball), but is anyone expecting him to be ready defensively by 2016? And if they think he has a chance at that, it's more of this kick the can down the road [expletive]. Uh Oh, what if everyone works out to the best case scenario? Then whatever will we do?

 

They might think he's ready defensively by 2016, at least to be able to provide a capable tandem with Castillo. I'm not speaking in absolutes here, their thoughts on how quickly he'll come along defensively matter when deciding to give someone like Martin 3+ years.

 

And it's not this all or nothing strawman either. The money you would spend on Martin doesn't evaporate if you're high on Schwarber's defense and decide not to pursue him.

 

The idea that they could come to the conclusion this offseason that he will be ready defensively by 2016 does not add up for me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We can do way better than Logan Watkins in the infield bench.

[SouthSideRyan]

Here are the arb eligible players. Estimates anyone?

 

Wood, Travis (14) $3,900,000 Arb 2

 

Ruggiano, Justin(14) $2,000,000 Arb 2

 

Valbuena, Luis (14) $1,710,000 Arb 3

 

Wright, Wesley (14) $1,425,000 Arb 3

 

Strop, Pedro (14) $1,325,000 Arb 2

 

McDonald, James(14) $1,000,000 Arb 3

 

Coghlan, Chris Arb 3

 

Doubront, Felix (14) $586,000 Arb 1

 

Arrieta, Jake (14) $544,500 Arb 1

 

Castillo, Welington (14) $530,000 Arb 1

 

Vizcaino, Arodys rhp (14) Arb 1

 

 

Wada and Baker questions seem up for debate.

[davell]

Here are the arb eligible players. Estimates anyone?

 

Wood, Travis (14) $3,900,000 Arb 2

 

Ruggiano, Justin(14) $2,000,000 Arb 2

 

Valbuena, Luis (14) $1,710,000 Arb 3

 

Wright, Wesley (14) $1,425,000 Arb 3

 

Strop, Pedro (14) $1,325,000 Arb 2

 

McDonald, James(14) $1,000,000 Arb 3

 

Coghlan, Chris Arb 3

Doubront, Felix (14) $586,000 Arb 1

 

Arrieta, Jake (14) $544,500 Arb 1

 

Castillo, Welington (14) $530,000 Arb 1

 

Vizcaino, Arodys rhp (14) Arb 1

 

 

Wada and Baker questions seem up for debate.

 

In my head, when starting this post, I used.....

 

Wood-5

Strop-1.8

Wright-1.750

Ruggiano-2.6

Valbuena-3

Arrieta-4.75

Castillo-2.75

Doubront-1.5

Vizcaino-.750

Coghlan-1.1

[Backtobanks]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4616&position=C

 

That's Russell Martin's Fangraphs page. He'll be 32 next year. Will the Pirates give him the qualifier? If we finish with an unprotected pick, will we pay for a guy that we lose our pick for? Not trying to start a fight here either, I think it's a legitimate question.

 

If we've got 50-55 mill in commitments and have 100 mill to work with, plus the rolled over Tanaka savings, what do you see us investing in?

 

Personally, I think the Tanaka money goes towards spending big on IFA's next year. Penalties eat into that fairly heavily, but I could see us spending 10 mill or so there and add in the penalties-that money is gone. Especially if the Hammel and Bonifacio signings came from that pool. Which we don't know.

 

Bullpen? I wouldn't mind if we didn't sign a single guy to a guaranteed contract. But my guess is we'll add one, but not expensive.

 

Bench? I doubt we add anything here either, since we'll soon have Ruggiano, Coghlan, Sweeney, and Valbuena all as bench parts.

 

The Outfield- Could definitely see us adding something here. Veteran bat on a 2-3 year deal or something like that. Markakis has always been my top option, but no clue if he hits FA or not.

 

The Infield-Don't see anything happening here at all.

 

Catching- It's why I brought up Martin. I doubt we'd spend on a solid OF, C, and SP, but I think it'll be 2 of the 3. I was always a Castillo fan, but at this point, I'd have to label him a stopgap, right?

 

Starting Pitching- Obviously we're doing something here, but with Theo and Jed bringing up the 18-24 month thing, it's certainly possible we don't add a TOR guy this offseason. Although I suspect we'll add 2 of them within 24 months. Of course, we've also got the ability to add two THIS offseason, if we want to.

 

So, how do you guys see the money being distributed this offseason?

 

The money is there, but I think Theo talks the "18-24 month thing" and "when the revenue comes in" stuff to keep expectations in check. If the prospects keep coming and producing and pitchers like Hendricks and Ramirez keep pitching like they have been, there's no reason for Theo to commit to spending a lot this off season. He can afford to patch the holes while he waits to see what develops and what the team really needs.

[treebird]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4616&position=C

 

That's Russell Martin's Fangraphs page. He'll be 32 next year. Will the Pirates give him the qualifier? If we finish with an unprotected pick, will we pay for a guy that we lose our pick for? Not trying to start a fight here either, I think it's a legitimate question.

 

If we've got 50-55 mill in commitments and have 100 mill to work with, plus the rolled over Tanaka savings, what do you see us investing in?

 

Personally, I think the Tanaka money goes towards spending big on IFA's next year. Penalties eat into that fairly heavily, but I could see us spending 10 mill or so there and add in the penalties-that money is gone. Especially if the Hammel and Bonifacio signings came from that pool. Which we don't know.

 

Bullpen? I wouldn't mind if we didn't sign a single guy to a guaranteed contract. But my guess is we'll add one, but not expensive.

 

Bench? I doubt we add anything here either, since we'll soon have Ruggiano, Coghlan, Sweeney, and Valbuena all as bench parts.

 

The Outfield- Could definitely see us adding something here. Veteran bat on a 2-3 year deal or something like that. Markakis has always been my top option, but no clue if he hits FA or not.

 

The Infield-Don't see anything happening here at all.

 

Catching- It's why I brought up Martin. I doubt we'd spend on a solid OF, C, and SP, but I think it'll be 2 of the 3. I was always a Castillo fan, but at this point, I'd have to label him a stopgap, right?

 

Starting Pitching- Obviously we're doing something here, but with Theo and Jed bringing up the 18-24 month thing, it's certainly possible we don't add a TOR guy this offseason. Although I suspect we'll add 2 of them within 24 months. Of course, we've also got the ability to add two THIS offseason, if we want to.

 

So, how do you guys see the money being distributed this offseason?

 

The money is there, but I think Theo talks the "18-24 month thing" and "when the revenue comes in" stuff to keep expectations in check. If the prospects keep coming and producing and pitchers like Hendricks and Ramirez keep pitching like they have been, there's no reason for Theo to commit to spending a lot this off season. He can afford to patch the holes while he waits to see what develops and what the team really needs.

 

there is no reasonable scenario in which the cubs don't need top-end pitching.

[Rob]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4616&position=C

 

That's Russell Martin's Fangraphs page. He'll be 32 next year. Will the Pirates give him the qualifier? If we finish with an unprotected pick, will we pay for a guy that we lose our pick for? Not trying to start a fight here either, I think it's a legitimate question.

 

If we've got 50-55 mill in commitments and have 100 mill to work with, plus the rolled over Tanaka savings, what do you see us investing in?

 

Personally, I think the Tanaka money goes towards spending big on IFA's next year. Penalties eat into that fairly heavily, but I could see us spending 10 mill or so there and add in the penalties-that money is gone. Especially if the Hammel and Bonifacio signings came from that pool. Which we don't know.

 

Bullpen? I wouldn't mind if we didn't sign a single guy to a guaranteed contract. But my guess is we'll add one, but not expensive.

 

Bench? I doubt we add anything here either, since we'll soon have Ruggiano, Coghlan, Sweeney, and Valbuena all as bench parts.

 

The Outfield- Could definitely see us adding something here. Veteran bat on a 2-3 year deal or something like that. Markakis has always been my top option, but no clue if he hits FA or not.

 

The Infield-Don't see anything happening here at all.

 

Catching- It's why I brought up Martin. I doubt we'd spend on a solid OF, C, and SP, but I think it'll be 2 of the 3. I was always a Castillo fan, but at this point, I'd have to label him a stopgap, right?

 

Starting Pitching- Obviously we're doing something here, but with Theo and Jed bringing up the 18-24 month thing, it's certainly possible we don't add a TOR guy this offseason. Although I suspect we'll add 2 of them within 24 months. Of course, we've also got the ability to add two THIS offseason, if we want to.

 

So, how do you guys see the money being distributed this offseason?

 

The money is there, but I think Theo talks the "18-24 month thing" and "when the revenue comes in" stuff to keep expectations in check. If the prospects keep coming and producing and pitchers like Hendricks and Ramirez keep pitching like they have been, there's no reason for Theo to commit to spending a lot this off season. He can afford to patch the holes while he waits to see what develops and what the team really needs.

 

there is no reasonable scenario in which the cubs don't need top-end pitching.

 

Junior Lake and John Baker both covert to starting pitching in the offseason.

[Backtobanks]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4616&position=C

 

That's Russell Martin's Fangraphs page. He'll be 32 next year. Will the Pirates give him the qualifier? If we finish with an unprotected pick, will we pay for a guy that we lose our pick for? Not trying to start a fight here either, I think it's a legitimate question.

 

If we've got 50-55 mill in commitments and have 100 mill to work with, plus the rolled over Tanaka savings, what do you see us investing in?

 

Personally, I think the Tanaka money goes towards spending big on IFA's next year. Penalties eat into that fairly heavily, but I could see us spending 10 mill or so there and add in the penalties-that money is gone. Especially if the Hammel and Bonifacio signings came from that pool. Which we don't know.

 

Bullpen? I wouldn't mind if we didn't sign a single guy to a guaranteed contract. But my guess is we'll add one, but not expensive.

 

Bench? I doubt we add anything here either, since we'll soon have Ruggiano, Coghlan, Sweeney, and Valbuena all as bench parts.

 

The Outfield- Could definitely see us adding something here. Veteran bat on a 2-3 year deal or something like that. Markakis has always been my top option, but no clue if he hits FA or not.

 

The Infield-Don't see anything happening here at all.

 

Catching- It's why I brought up Martin. I doubt we'd spend on a solid OF, C, and SP, but I think it'll be 2 of the 3. I was always a Castillo fan, but at this point, I'd have to label him a stopgap, right?

 

Starting Pitching- Obviously we're doing something here, but with Theo and Jed bringing up the 18-24 month thing, it's certainly possible we don't add a TOR guy this offseason. Although I suspect we'll add 2 of them within 24 months. Of course, we've also got the ability to add two THIS offseason, if we want to.

 

So, how do you guys see the money being distributed this offseason?

 

The money is there, but I think Theo talks the "18-24 month thing" and "when the revenue comes in" stuff to keep expectations in check. If the prospects keep coming and producing and pitchers like Hendricks and Ramirez keep pitching like they have been, there's no reason for Theo to commit to spending a lot this off season. He can afford to patch the holes while he waits to see what develops and what the team really needs.

 

there is no reasonable scenario in which the cubs don't need top-end pitching.

 

I agree with you. Assuming Arrieta and Hendricks keep pitching the way that they have been, Bosio can turn one of Turner/Strailey/Doubront into a decent starter, and Wood goes back to being a consistently decent starter, I can see where Theo might want to avoid committing a ton on someone like Lester and settle for MOR guy on a shorter/more affordable contract. After seeing Bryant, Russell, Soler, Baez, and the rotation for a whole season, he might have a better idea as to whether the rotation is adequate or needs to be upgrade with the potent offense (hopefully) in place.

[RynoRules]

Couple of thoughts:

 

1) Coghlan is likely to get a a hefty raise in arbitration this offseason. I'd say he comes in at closer to 2 mill than 1 mill.

 

2) Why are we focused on Lester to the exclusion of Scherzer? Shouldn't we be happy with landing either? Its possible someone picked up on something about Max that I missed...

[davell]

To me, Lester has the cleaner history of the two, will come cheaper and won't cost us a pick under any scenario. Which is why he's my clear cut favorite of the two. Not that I'd complain whatsoever if we added Scherzer.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't think we'll be pursuing Scherzer. There's been next to no smoke connecting us to him

[SouthSideRyan]

And I agree with RR, I think the arb estimates are low across the board with the exceptions of Valbuena and Arrieta

[davell]

And I agree with RR, I think the arb estimates are low across the board with the exceptions of Valbuena and Arrieta

 

I can't see Wood getting much of a raise honestly. I thought 5 was fair there. Castillo? Total stab on that on that one. I don't see Wright or Strop being far off either. I guess I can see being low on Ruggiano, maybe Castillo.