2014 MLB transactions

[Sammy Sofa]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

 

your trolling has no effect on me because i didn't care about minor leagues back then so HA

 

http://replygif.net/i/1521.gif

[Sammy Sofa]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

 

your trolling has no effect on me because i didn't care about minor leagues back then so HA

 

http://replygif.net/i/1521.gif

 

But seriously, I miss the days when we could mostly ignore the minor leagues.

[Gilby]

And absolutely no pitching.

 

Well that's not true.

 

Who are you banking on? Arrieta? Edwards?

 

Arrieta (who has been elite and has a ways to drop off and still be good), Hendricks (strikes and groundballs FTW), and as much as I don't love them, I doubt both Wood and Jackson continue to post mid 5 ERAs.

 

Then there's the bullpen - Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, and Rivero all are currently/should be good relief pitchers.

 

There's also a lot of money to be spent and a pretty good group of free agent starting pitchers to spend it on. I guess I'm not THAT worried about the pitching.

 

I'm not talking about the bullpen, though I guess I should since this year's seems to be the exception, so it's not even like that is some kind of sure thing.

 

My concerns with Arrieta are injuries. I think Hendricks' lack of speed is ultimately going to catch up to him. Wood and Jackson not bouncing back shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

 

The team development is HUGELY lopsided right now.

 

You should factor in the bullpen if you're going to say we have no pitching, but w/e. Again, not a big fan of either, but neither Wood nor Jackson have been this bad before, and considering their ages, I think it would be surprising if neither bounces back to become an acceptable BOR pitcher. Arrieta hasn't had any reported problems since the spring (or before that I know of), so I don't know that you should be much more worried about him than any other hard-throwing pitcher. I also think you're too quick to give up on Hendricks based on velocity. The changeup appears to be a true swing-and-miss pitch and he's shown the ability to throw strikes and get a lot GB's throughout his pro career; those things should mitigate some of the damage done when he does give up homers on a mistake 88 mph fastball.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The problem with the "one of them has to bounce back" logic is that you have to employ both of them in the rotation for that to be true, and the other likely sucks badly enough to cancel the bounceback out.

[Sammy Sofa]

You should factor in the bullpen if you're going to say we have no pitching, but w/e. Again, not a big fan of either, but neither Wood nor Jackson have been this bad before, and considering their ages, I think it would be surprising if neither bounces back to become an acceptable BOR pitcher. Arrieta hasn't had any reported problems since the spring (or before that I know of), so I don't know that you should be much more worried about him than any other hard-throwing pitcher. I also think you're too quick to give up on Hendricks based on velocity. The changeup appears to be a true swing-and-miss pitch and he's shown the ability to throw strikes and get a lot GB's throughout his pro career; those things should mitigate some of the damage done when he does give up homers on a mistake 88 mph fastball.

 

Jackson hasn't been this bad, but he's been bad before. The argument was made by people smarter than me that Wood's previous success was him overperforming. That either will bounce back, much less both, is nowhere near a sure thing.

 

And I'm not giving up on Hendricks, but ultimately I think he'll settle in as a back of the rotation guy if he sticks as a starter.

[SouthSideRyan]

~20%K rate if you guys are wondering .957 OPS at A ball as a 20 year old.

 

SAD

 

Where can you get minor league numbers from that far back? BR? I hate going there because they don't have the K and BB rates. Like how hard is that to do? WTF?

 

Either way, he didn't have the walks, FWIW.

 

I still use BR for most basic things because I'm slow to adapt. At least I'm not like that guy that talked about thebaseballcube sometime in the past year.

 

8% BB rate, 20% K rate. Schwarber is 11/17 respectively. But still...

[Gilby]

The problem with the "one of them has to bounce back" logic is that you have to employ both of them in the rotation for that to be true, and the other likely sucks badly enough to cancel the bounceback out.

 

You can put one in the bullpen; I doubt both will be in the rotation to start the year. Hopefully they pick the right one.

[Gilby]

You should factor in the bullpen if you're going to say we have no pitching, but w/e. Again, not a big fan of either, but neither Wood nor Jackson have been this bad before, and considering their ages, I think it would be surprising if neither bounces back to become an acceptable BOR pitcher. Arrieta hasn't had any reported problems since the spring (or before that I know of), so I don't know that you should be much more worried about him than any other hard-throwing pitcher. I also think you're too quick to give up on Hendricks based on velocity. The changeup appears to be a true swing-and-miss pitch and he's shown the ability to throw strikes and get a lot GB's throughout his pro career; those things should mitigate some of the damage done when he does give up homers on a mistake 88 mph fastball.

 

Jackson hasn't been this bad, but he's been bad before. The argument was made by people smarter than me that Wood's previous success was him overperforming. That either will bounce back, much less both, is nowhere near a sure thing.

 

And I'm not giving up on Hendricks, but ultimately I think he'll settle in as a back of the rotation guy if he sticks as a starter.

 

He was overperforming when he put up a 3.10 ERA, yeah. But I don't think anyone thought he'd turn into this or this is who he is from now on.

 

I don't even like Wood, so I'm going to stop defending him after this post.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Gilby

[dew1679666265]

And I'm not giving up on Hendricks, but ultimately I think he'll settle in as a back of the rotation guy if he sticks as a starter.

 

For a guy who can't top 90, back end of the rotation seems like a best case scenario unless his control is simply amazing.

[dew1679666265]

I still use BR for most basic things because I'm slow to adapt. At least I'm not like that guy that talked about thebaseballcube sometime in the past year.

 

What's better than BR? I typically use Fangraphs, but I'll also check out BR at times. Is there something better out there I'm missing?

[Sammy Sofa]

And I'm not giving up on Hendricks, but ultimately I think he'll settle in as a back of the rotation guy if he sticks as a starter.

 

For a guy who can't top 90, back end of the rotation seems like a best case scenario unless his control is simply amazing.

 

I was being diplomatic. I don't want to be Mr. Everything Sucks ALL of the time.

[dew1679666265]

He was overperforming when he put up a 3.10 ERA, yeah. But I don't think anyone thought he'd turn into this or this is who he is from now on.

 

I don't even like Wood, so I'm going to stop defending him after this post.

 

Wood's xFIP by season:

2010: 3.97

2011: 4.61

2012: 4.62

2013: 4.50

2014: 4.68

 

His ERA is worse this year than ever and his walks are the highest they've ever been as well, but he's basically always been an average to worse pitcher. He's not been as good as his ERA would indicate in the first two seasons, but he's not been as bad as his ERA would indicate this season. Not a guy I would pinpoint as a real bounceback candidate, though.

[Guest]

I still use BR for most basic things because I'm slow to adapt. At least I'm not like that guy that talked about thebaseballcube sometime in the past year.

 

What's better than BR? I typically use Fangraphs, but I'll also check out BR at times. Is there something better out there I'm missing?

 

Fangraphs is it.

[dew1679666265]

And I'm not giving up on Hendricks, but ultimately I think he'll settle in as a back of the rotation guy if he sticks as a starter.

 

For a guy who can't top 90, back end of the rotation seems like a best case scenario unless his control is simply amazing.

 

I was being diplomatic. I don't want to be Mr. Everything Sucks ALL of the time.

 

Ah, I see. That was as much for Gilby as for you, though.

[dew1679666265]

I still use BR for most basic things because I'm slow to adapt. At least I'm not like that guy that talked about thebaseballcube sometime in the past year.

 

What's better than BR? I typically use Fangraphs, but I'll also check out BR at times. Is there something better out there I'm missing?

 

Fangraphs is it.

 

Ok, that's good. I like using it, but wasn't sure if I was somehow behind the curve.

[Sammy Sofa]

I find BR easier to read and I am set in my ways.

[dew1679666265]

I find BR easier to read and I am set in my ways.

 

It's always been better to look at for minor league stuff, I think, but FG is getting better. I agree it's still easier to read BR's minors stuff than FG's, though.

[Guest]

The conversation evolved past this point, but for my 2 cents, I'm not worried at all about finding pitching. Part of that is faith in the FO and Bosio to get good or good enough performances, and part of it is the environment. In 2008 there were 9 teams that put up 20+ fWAR from their pitching staffs, the difference between the 10th and 20th best staff was roughly 8-10 wins. In 2013, 3 teams put up 20+ fWAR from their pitching staffs, and the difference between 10th and 20th was roughly 5-7 wins.

 

More simply, in this run environment, there's so many more outs being recorded by everybody that because pitchers are so frail, it's less and less worthwhile to spend resources chasing 'extra outs' beyond a certain point. The threshold of a 'good' or 'good enough' staff is higher in most people's minds than it is in reality. That doesn't mean that the current Cubs don't need pitching, far from it. But they don't necessarily need to be playing "Scherzer/Lester or bust" either.

 

What I do worry about, is the prospects panning out, and how quickly they pan out. Those two things combined is why it makes so much sense to put together a package for Stanton+extension. You remove some of the risk of prospect failure, lower your reliance on the prospects that are left, and put financial resources into a more reliable form than pretty much any pitcher.

[jersey cubs fan]

The conversation evolved past this point, but for my 2 cents, I'm not worried at all about finding pitching.

 

Having confidence in their ability to figure out a way to find pitching makes sense to me, but not being worried at all reeks of the similar overconfidence some people have in all the prospects.

[Rob]

At least I'm not like that guy that talked about thebaseballcube sometime in the past year.

 

I think that was me. I use that about two or three times a year when I want to look at a player's minor league numbers and college numbers side by side.

[Guest]

Of relevance to this conversation: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/history-indicates-cubs-competitive-cycle/?sm_id=social_20140725_28510716

[treebird]

you know how sometimes we read other boards (that mets board, the orioles hangout thing, gateway redbirds) and there's always posters we make fun of for thinking all their guys are amazing and all our guys suck? and then we all pat ourselves on the back for not being as deluded as that fanbase?

 

david is the poster here.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

you know how sometimes we read other boards (that mets board, the orioles hangout thing, gateway redbirds) and there's always posters we make fun of for thinking all their guys are amazing and all our guys suck? and then we all pat ourselves on the back for not being as deluded as that fanbase?

 

david is the poster here.

http://i.imgur.com/qx6ak2h.gif

[Sammy Sofa]

you know how sometimes we read other boards (that mets board, the orioles hangout thing, gateway redbirds) and there's always posters we make fun of for thinking all their guys are amazing and all our guys suck? and then we all pat ourselves on the back for not being as deluded as that fanbase?

 

david is the poster here.

 

http://replygif.net/i/897.gif

[Guest]

you know how sometimes we read other boards (that mets board, the orioles hangout thing, gateway redbirds) and there's always posters we make fun of for thinking all their guys are amazing and all our guys suck? and then we all pat ourselves on the back for not being as deluded as that fanbase?

 

david is the poster here.

 

Yeah, I'm the only person high on our outrageously good farm system.

 

The hyperbolic posts about how awesome everyone is going to be should be taken in a fun way and not as serious, but I didn't think I needed to actually say that. The stuff about how good our situation looks for 2015 & beyond us serious, though. It really can't be overstated that this collection of prospects is just stupid.