2014 MLB transactions

[SouthSideRyan]

wtf, how is Schwarber one of our safest bats? He has 135 professional ABs, none above high A

Only if you really worry about K rates and think Bryant and Baez are destined for failure.

 

 

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I worry about K rates, but FFS, Bryant has been a monster at levels that matter. Schwarber pooed all over SS Ball, was sub-Bryant at A, and is now speedless Dwaine Bacon in 32 Hi-A ABs

[Guest]

wtf, how is Schwarber one of our safest bats? He has 135 professional ABs, none above high A

Only if you really worry about K rates and think Bryant and Baez are destined for failure.

 

 

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I don't have to think they're destined for failure to feel more comfortable in Schwarber becoming a competent and productive MLB hitter.

Uh they're mashing AAA despite K rates so that's basically what it means when the other reference point is in A ball as mentioned above.

 

 

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Plenty of guys mash AAA and don't succeed in MLB because of contact issues. Guys that strike out less than Bryant.

 

If Baez's peripherals lately are to be taken as reflective of his true abilities going forward, though, I feel much better about him than I did.

[Sammy Sofa]

And absolutely no pitching.

 

Well that's not true.

 

Who are you banking on? Arrieta? Edwards?

 

Arrieta (who has been elite and has a ways to drop off and still be good), Hendricks (strikes and groundballs FTW), and as much as I don't love them, I doubt both Wood and Jackson continue to post mid 5 ERAs.

 

Then there's the bullpen - Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, and Rivero all are currently/should be good relief pitchers.

 

There's also a lot of money to be spent and a pretty good group of free agent starting pitchers to spend it on. I guess I'm not THAT worried about the pitching.

 

I'm not talking about the bullpen, though I guess I should since this year's seems to be the exception, so it's not even like that is some kind of sure thing.

 

My concerns with Arrieta are injuries. I think Hendricks' lack of speed is ultimately going to catch up to him. Wood and Jackson not bouncing back shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

 

The team development is HUGELY lopsided right now.

[Guest]

We've gotten to the point where now I'm getting bashed for being slightly less high on one of our best prospects which only furthers my point that this is awesome once we get the rest of this miserable season over.

[WrigleyField 22]

wtf, how is Schwarber one of our safest bats? He has 135 professional ABs, none above high A

Only if you really worry about K rates and think Bryant and Baez are destined for failure.

 

 

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I worry about K rates, but FFS, Bryant has been a monster at levels that matter. Schwarber pooed all over SS Ball, was sub-Bryant at A, and is now speedless Dwaine Bacon in 32 Hi-A ABs

I don't really disagree with you. I'm not taking the stance that their K rates make them less safe bets then the Schwarbs, but that's about the only stance you could take to argue so.

 

 

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[SouthSideRyan]

wtf, how is Schwarber one of our safest bats? He has 135 professional ABs, none above high A

Only if you really worry about K rates and think Bryant and Baez are destined for failure.

 

 

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I don't have to think they're destined for failure to feel more comfortable in Schwarber becoming a competent and productive MLB hitter.

Uh they're mashing AAA despite K rates so that's basically what it means when the other reference point is in A ball as mentioned above.

 

 

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Plenty of guys mash AAA and don't succeed in MLB because of contact issues. Guys that strike out less than Bryant.

 

 

Guys who mash A ball for 100 ABs though...

[WrigleyField 22]

wtf, how is Schwarber one of our safest bats? He has 135 professional ABs, none above high A

Only if you really worry about K rates and think Bryant and Baez are destined for failure.

 

 

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I don't have to think they're destined for failure to feel more comfortable in Schwarber becoming a competent and productive MLB hitter.

Uh they're mashing AAA despite K rates so that's basically what it means when the other reference point is in A ball as mentioned above.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Plenty of guys mash AAA and don't succeed in MLB because of contact issues. Guys that strike out less than Bryant.

 

If Baez's peripherals lately are to be taken as reflective of his true abilities going forward, though, I feel much better about him than I did.

So if guys sometimes flop from AAA to

MLB (unrelated to K rates) that makes the A guy a safer bet because...

 

 

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[davell]

What was an actual percentile chance that the team inherited could have been turned into a current contender that also had an extremely bright longterm future and doing it while dropping payroll?

 

Pretty low. But if you change "extremely" to "reasonably," I'd say better than 50% if Epstein really wanted to.

 

I certainly won't argue the first, but the 2nd is impossible to do without starting to name moves and naming off where we'd have drafted each year. I tend to think you're high on the over 50%. I'd say 35-40% and in that thought process think we were better off going the direction we did.

[Guest]

Give me a [expletive] break. 30% K rates at AAA are pretty damning.

 

I realize his power mitigates this. I never said he wasn't an amazing prospect.

 

I just feel more confident in the type of hitter Schwarber is becoming a good major leaguer. That doesn't mean I think he's a better prospect than Bryant, either, because Bryant's potential is enormous.

[WrigleyField 22]

Okay I think if I read your first response differently I understand now you are still talking about K rates.

 

I'll retract destined and amend to very likely.

 

 

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Edited July 25, 2014 by WrigleyField 22

[Guest]

Okay I think if I read my first response differently I understand now you are still talking about K rates.

 

I'll retract destined and amend to very likely.

 

 

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Not even very likely. Just enough to make me uncomfortable. That combined with how safe I think Schwarber is to at least be a decent MLB hitter is why I said what I said. I'm certainly not even close to saying it's not debatable.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Everyone here shits their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

[Guest]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

More so Olt. But, again, his power and track record isn't close to Bryant's level.

[Guest]

Right now what we have, though, is a possibly unprecedented collection of prospects, young talent, combined with payroll flexibility that the smaller market teams who usually take this approach do not have...and the bigger market teams never try to get away with (not that I'm throwing a party about it) what we've done to acquire that young talent...not to mention increasing revenues on the horizon. The closest comparison I can come up with for that situation is the Yankees circa 1995 or something.

 

Yeah, but we also waited too long and now payroll flexibility means less than ever as revenue sharing has given small-market teams much more room to operate than they had in the 1990s.

 

And we've got a division full of teams that may not have unprecedented levels of talent, but they have more than enough to think that any of them might win a couple of division titles themselves some time in the next decade.

 

I think the early 1990s Indians might be a better comp than the Yankees, and they never did win a WS.

 

Just had a thought about this. In a way, doesn't our payroll flexibility mean more now, then, since we can afford to spend even more inefficiently, particularly on pitching with all of the cost controlled positional talent, (since FA is basically all really inefficient now)? I wish I could articulate my thought process here better.

 

Like, we can afford to spend more for less production than other smaller market teams who might have a bunch of cheap young assets.

I'm not sure if that made sense, but I hope it did.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just had a thought about this. In a way, doesn't our payroll flexibility mean more now, then, since we can afford to spend even more inefficiently, particularly on pitching with all of the cost controlled positional talent, (since FA is basically all really inefficient now)? I wish I could articulate my thought process here better.

 

Like, we can afford to spend more for less production than other smaller market teams who might have a bunch of cheap young assets.

I'm not sure if that made sense, but I hope it did.

 

I get what you're saying, but the problem still remains that FA classes suck now compared to back in the day when small-market teams couldn't afford to keep anyone and PEDs mean the aging curve stretched deep into the 30s.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Hairyducked Idiot

[WrigleyField 22]

I think you're just way overrating Schwaeber based on approach then. Anyone at A has tons of built in fail rate that Bryant and Baez now are safer bets. There's probably still some probability of it occurring that he is better but from a risk management viewpoint it's not the most likely probability.

 

 

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[SouthSideRyan]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

[Guest]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

 

your trolling has no effect on me because i didn't care about minor leagues back then so HA

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

 

your trolling has no effect on me because i didn't care about minor leagues back then so HA

 

Also Theo's prospects are different. Just ask Lars Anderson and Casey Coleman.

[Guest]

I think you're just way overrating Schwaeber based on approach then. Anyone at A has tons of built in fail rate that Bryant and Baez now are safer bets. There's probably still some probability of it occurring that he is better but from a risk management viewpoint it's not the most likely probability.

 

 

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Maybe.

 

I think Schwarber is really advanced though and will move very quickly (obviously, both of those things are incredibly and insurmountably true of Bryant as well).

[SouthSideRyan]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

 

your trolling has no effect on me because i didn't care about minor leagues back then so HA

 

Also Theo's prospects are different. Just ask Lars Anderson and .Casey Coleman

 

Now I think you're being too hard on him.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

http://i.imgur.com/2sSHDZJ.gif

[SouthSideRyan]

~20%K rate if you guys are wondering .957 OPS at A ball as a 20 year old.

 

SAD

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everyone here [expletive] their pants about K rates so much because of what happened to Brett Jackson. And justifiably so. Don't think what David is saying is unreasonable at all.

 

I'm just concerned because I figured we'd have Dopirak play DH when it started. Where are we going to move him to?

 

your trolling has no effect on me because i didn't care about minor leagues back then so HA

 

Also Theo's prospects are different. Just ask Lars Anderson and .Casey Coleman

 

Now I think you're being too hard on him.

 

 

Oops, got him confused with Michael Bowden.

[Guest]

~20%K rate if you guys are wondering .957 OPS at A ball as a 20 year old.

 

SAD

 

Where can you get minor league numbers from that far back? BR? I hate going there because they don't have the K and BB rates. Like how hard is that to do? WTF?

 

Either way, he didn't have the walks, FWIW.