Who is the Cubs #13 Prospect?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The poll will be open for 48 hours.

 

Results so far:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Kris Bryant

3. Albert Almora

4. Jorge Soler

5. CJ Edwards

6. Arismendy Alcantara

7. Pierce Johnson

8. Daniel Vogelbach

9. Christian Villanueva

10. Jeimer Candelario

11. Mike Olt

12. Kyle Hendricks

[davell]

In order: Vizcaino, Blackburn, and Black.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Vitters, Rivero, Jimenez

[Guest]

I went with Blackburn, Zastryzny and Arodys

[bukie]

Vizcaino, Black and Zastryzny.

 

Scott Frazier is probably a choice for me before some of the names already on the list, but doesn't have to be on there quite yet, IMO.

[rawaction]

I went with Blackburn, Zastryzny and Arodys

 

Me too, in reverse order.

[Guest]

Vizcaino, Black and Zastryzny.

 

Scott Frazier is probably a choice for me before some of the names already on the list, but doesn't have to be on there quite yet, IMO.

 

I'll add him next round. Give me any other names you guys want added too.

[Guest]

I went with Blackburn, Zastryzny and Arodys

 

Me too, in reverse order.

 

Same three for me but I went Vizcaino, Blackburn and Zastryzny.

[CubColtPacer]

Vizcaino, Black and Zastryzny.

 

Scott Frazier is probably a choice for me before some of the names already on the list, but doesn't have to be on there quite yet, IMO.

 

I'll add him next round. Give me any other names you guys want added too.

 

I think Ivan Pineyro probably deserves to get added pretty soon.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Vizcaino, Black and Zastryzny.

 

Scott Frazier is probably a choice for me before some of the names already on the list, but doesn't have to be on there quite yet, IMO.

 

I'll add him next round. Give me any other names you guys want added too.

 

I think Ivan Pineyro probably deserves to get added pretty soon.

 

Yep.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

And I only voted for Vizcaino, and will do the same until he's up there.

[Sammy Sofa]

I still do not understand the whole 3 votes thing.

[Guest]

I still do not understand the whole 3 votes thing.

 

This far down, there's probably a lot more "ties" of guys you can't really decide between. 3 votes means you don't have to arbitrarily tiebreak.

[Guest]

I still do not understand the whole 3 votes thing.

 

This far down, there's probably a lot more "ties" of guys you can't really decide between. 3 votes means you don't have to arbitrarily tiebreak.

Also the same reason that MVP voting is a 1-10 ranking instead of just picking one guy - you end up with a significantly better representation of how people feel the actual ranking should look like.

 

It's just unfortunate that phpbb doesn't allow ranked votes.

[Guest]

This is where it starts to get pretty tricky for me, I haven't really considered any of these guys deeply yet, so I'm going to think out loud a bit on each.

 

Alberto Cabrera - Close to MLB and decent peripherals, but a reliever and not young. Nope

Armando Rivero - 25 yo RP with 11 IP above Kane Cty. Nope.

Arodys Vizcaino - by far the best talent of any remaining player, and closer to MLB than any other either. But hasn't pitched in 2 years and now his ceiling is decidedly reliever. Considering.

Corey Black - Law's endorsement and improved numbers in limited exposure to Cubs staff are interesting. Considering.

Dillon Maples - Interested in the improvement after his demotion, but he's not close to 13 until he shows some control in full-season ball. Turns 22 early this season

Duane Underwood - Alarming Boise performance. Time and stuff still on his side, but not enough to consider for 13.

Eloy Jimenez - Reports would have to be far more glowing than they are for me to consider ranking him above any of these guys who actually have played a pro game

Gioskar Amaya - bad full season performance, 2B ceiling further limits optimism. Not at 13.

Gleyber Torres - See Jimenez, Eloy

Jacob Hannemann - A personal favorite, needs to hit more with his age to be considered at 13. Like him more than the Riveros and Amaays of the world though

Josh Vitters - Strong AAA results and still age appropriate makes him more contender than I would've guessed. Big question is now health and how good a LF he can be. Considering

Neil Ramirez - I probably am jumping the gun by considering him a reliever, but shoulder injuries scare me. Results are very good in that light and should start in Iowa, but reliever ceiling is limiting. Considering, but faintly

Paul Blackburn - Stuff played up with a full year of pro ball, but dismal results put him in a similar camp as Underwood for me. Nay.

Rob Zastryzny - Nice aggregate results, but stuff isn't so great to beat out the contenders with only 24 pro innings w/ 11 appearances.

Shawon Dunston Jr - Another guy I like more than most, he'd be considered more if he had done this at KC instead of Boise. Also want to hear more about how good his CF defense will be, as that gets real important if the XBH don't come soon.

Yasiel Balaguert - Non-factor for this list, middling short season results and not enough pedigree to beat out lots of names here

 

Pineyro - Similar to Black in that interesting A+ numbers ticked up after trade. Probably the strongest of those I'm not really considering(partially because I can't vote for him)

Frazier - Like Zastryzny and other 2013 draftees, seeing them in 2-3 inning spurts in short season ball isn't enough to get a top 15 vote in this system.

 

So that makes Vizcaino, Black, Vitters, and maybe Ramirez for 13. Ramirez falls off first, and while I might be overreacting, Angel Guzman worries me too much for Vizcaino. Black makes a strong push, but the difference in level actually pushes me to Vitters for this vote.

[Guest]

Lose how close this is. Blackburn got my vote, now that Hendricks is gone.

[craig]

I went with Blackburn, Zastryzny and Arodys

 

Same for me, I guess with Blackburn last.

 

Note: I think the perception on Blackburn hinges on how we perceive his ceiling, which in turn hinges on how we perceive his fastball. I think one view is that he's already regularly throwing 95, so he's got plenty of fastball arm. And he was still a teenager with physical frame to add more strength, so that those 95's might become a lot more routine and he may be faster than that. If we project him as having plus or plus-plus velocity on his fastball, that combined with his intelligence, feel, potential control, and breaking ball give him the chance to be a really, really good pitcher.

 

But if his fastball is viewed as basically average, and that without a heavy sinker, maybe the TORP possibilities don't seem as possible. I have no idea. I found it interesting that Vineline, which is a Cubs publication, which usually has some access to McLeod input, and which usually is so favorable that it makes every Cubs prospect sound great and super talented, writes up Blackburn's current velocity as "average", although with the possibility to grow into some more.

 

Will be interesting to see how that all looks this year for him. Maybe the 95 is real, but that's an occasional show-me 4-seamer on an I-feel-strong-and-fast-today day, and perhaps he throws twenty times as many fastballs as 2-seamers that are nearer 90 than 95. Still, a solid-average fastball with control, location, smarts, combined with a very good breaking pitch can win an awful lot of big-league games.

[bukie]

I don't think Vitters is as much of a non-prospect as Law does, but I am skeptical about his AAA numbers being over just 100 PA. What is the success rate of high school draftees who spend 6 years in the minor league system?

[CubColtPacer]

I still do not understand the whole 3 votes thing.

 

As Tim and TT both alluded to as well, the big purpose is to get a better consensus when the votes get this divided. Let's say there are 40 voters and 15 people have Vizcaino as 13th, but the other 25 are scared off by the injuries and have him in the 20's. Somebody else could only have 10 people consider him 13th, but everybody else who doesn't has him 14th or 15th.

 

Which one would the consensus pick as the better prospect? Probably the latter. The 3 votes help makes sure that happens.

[Guest]

I don't think Vitters is as much of a non-prospect as Law does, but I am skeptical about his AAA numbers being over just 100 PA. What is the success rate of high school draftees who spend 6 years in the minor league system?

 

He did hit very similarly in 450+ PA in Iowa(.304/.356/.513) in 2012. The latter I don't really know, but intuition tells me it's not as uncommon as we might guess.

[WrigleyField 22]

Are we going to do a re-vote with the top 3 if it stays this close?

[Tryptamine]

Vizcaino, Blackburn, Zastryzny in that order.

[Clem Fandango]

I still do not understand the whole 3 votes thing.

 

As Tim and TT both alluded to as well, the big purpose is to get a better consensus when the votes get this divided. Let's say there are 40 voters and 15 people have Vizcaino as 13th, but the other 25 are scared off by the injuries and have him in the 20's. Somebody else could only have 10 people consider him 13th, but everybody else who doesn't has him 14th or 15th.

 

Which one would the consensus pick as the better prospect? Probably the latter. The 3 votes help makes sure that happens.

 

I get that, but I think it inaccurately saturates the voting pool. If Blackburn or Zastryzny wins this round, Vizcaino will have lost to someone he had nearly 20 or more votes than 3 rounds ago. And if people are selecting three people, and then posting that they like them in a specific order, why are they even selecting three people? If you like one more than the other, why not just select that one?

[rawaction]

I don't think Vitters is as much of a non-prospect as Law does, but I am skeptical about his AAA numbers being over just 100 PA. What is the success rate of high school draftees who spend 6 years in the minor league system?

 

I'm with Law on this one. He's a non-prospect without a position for me. I think his lack of a position (in the sense that he won't hit well enough that the Cubs can get away with his bat and below average defense wherever he plays). He's not as done as Brett Jackson, but he's past the point that Olt is at now. I may have Vitters in my top 30, but he'd definitely be in the bottom 3 of that list.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I hate Keith Law but I actually agree with him on Vitters.