Who is the Cubs #9 Prospect?

[craig]

olt is impossible because he's either a useful major league player this year and therefore way undervalued here or a non-entity for his whole career because he sees five baseballs when he should see one and is actually the 135th best prospect in the system.

 

anywhere we put him is wrong. i punted and picked candelario.

 

Heh heh, good point! Well said.

 

Actually, as funny and to-the-point as that is, I don't fully buy that.

 

I think the eye thing has been used as an explain-everything excuse. I'm sure it was a real factor. But I think it's well possible that his eyes may be fine now, but he'll still be a fringy guy who wouldn't belong top 8 or 10 in this system even if healthy. It's been suggested that we'll know with him right away, and McLeod suggested that within his first BP we'll know.

 

But I think it's also well possible that six weeks into the season he'll be at Iowa hitting .245 with 5 homers, some walks, a lot of K's, and a .750 OPS. The assumption is that either he'll be totally bad ala Brett Jackson, or else is eyes are clean that he'll be minor-league dominant or big-league solid. More likely he'll be somewhere well in between the extremes.

[Bilbo161]

I know I'll be way out of the norm with Hendricks.

1. I value pitching a lot, and teams need five (plus) starters. A position can't afford many holes in his game, but a 5th starter can be far from perfect.

2. According to Theo and Johnson, Hendricks can get significantly better than he's been. He was already very effective, but he's not necessarily beyond getting better yet. A number of other sources, while all noting that he's not TOR and that he's not as good as his stats, seem to project him as a capable #4-5 starter.

3. I know his stuff doesn't scout great, but a career K/BB of 5:1, with an 0.4 HR rate, those are some beautiful ratios. Maybe they aren't all mirage.

4. Reading some of Maddux's ideas, particularly the Boswell article, made me think optimistically about Hendricks.

 

Yea, I like Hendricks too. He is the kind of guy that might just surprise everyone and be a good pitcher without the best "stuff". Just the kind of guy you love to root for.

[imb]

I picked Olt, and my thinking was that we know he's going to walk at an acceptable rate, and we know that he's going to play defense at a more than acceptable rate, so he really only needs one thing (hit .220 and/or hit for power) to be productive.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For completely irrational reasons, I think a few years from now we're gonna look back and wonder how we missed Armando Rivero coming up.

[Guest]

For completely irrational reasons, I think a few years from now we're gonna look back and wonder how we missed Armando Rivero coming up.

 

I mean...someone who profiles as only a reliever, even a very good one, isn't a big time prospect. Unless he's Marmol-good, I don't see that lament happening.

[ScrubMD]

For completely irrational reasons, I think a few years from now we're gonna look back and wonder how we missed Armando Rivero coming up.

 

He's one of those guys that I like a lot and want to rank him high...but then there are other people I want to rank high more. Hendricks is another one of those guys for me.

[ScrubMD]

To me, here's the next group of guys to add....

 

Tyler Black-surprised he's not already on it. He's definitely inside my top 20

Gleyber Torres- If Jimenez is on, he should be too, since he was ranked top overall on one of the IFA lists last year as well.

Duane Underwood- Upside

Dillon Maples-Upside

Gioskar Amaya-Scouting circles like him a lot

Ivan Pineyro- Upside not as high as some, but a definite top 30 guy for us.

 

 

 

Szczur and Vitters do little for me honestly.

 

I suggested adding Jimenez mainly because one of the major publications had him around 12 or so. I forget which one though.

[craig]

For completely irrational reasons, I think a few years from now we're gonna look back and wonder how we missed Armando Rivero coming up.

 

I think good relievers are undervalued. If you get six years of good relief work from a guy, there won't be many prospects in the 2nd-ten of a list who outperform that. For Rivero, Vizcaino, and Black, if we really believe that they'll be GOOD relievers, I don't think they should get pushed back much on that account, at this point in the ranking. The real question is whether they should be good or not, I think.

 

I had Rivero #11 on the list I made in October. I'll have him a little lower now; at that time I had all three 3B's Villaneuva/Candelario/Olt behind him, and Zastrysny as well. Bit Rivero clearly has the power arm to be very effective, pending his control, his consistency, and his splitter.

 

If he does work out well, though, I don't think we'll look back and wonder who we missed him. It will be easy to understand. At this point, he'd had only 30 innings to go off of, followed by a forgettable AFL. Within those innings he'd been somewhat inconsistent, seemingly dominant at times but wild in others. As a small-sample reliever, we also haven't gotten a bucket of scouting glorification about him. And after a splashy first AFL inning, he was 5BB/6K/14H in the subsequent tend.

 

If he turns out stellar, it will be easy to look back and say "we were really interested/hopeful, but how were we to know; we had nothing much to go on to justify ranking him higher."

[craig]

Vitters HR power potential is undersold, I think. I'm not a big fan and he's way further down on my list. But I think that he's physically strong enough to be a 25-HR guy, if he was playing regularly and was to have his hitting settle in.

[craig]

.I suggested adding Jimenez mainly because one of the major publications had him around 12 or so. I forget which one though.

 

Makes sense to me. Different posters can vote as they like, and I won't have him for a while on my list. But for a guy who's going to become like Soler physically, I can see why some posters would rank a guy who might become great ahead of other guys. Guys whose physical limitations or performance record makes it obvious they will be limited players if they make it at all.

[toonsterwu]

I think Jimenez was ranked high by BA, off the top, although someone with a BA subscription would be able to answer that.

 

As for Rivero, I think he'll likely see the bigs this year. I think he could be very good in the pen. That said, define "miss". I can't see an argument for him in the top 9 (for me, but likely top 10, as Villanueva will likely lose to Candelario here). Stuff wise, he's fairly comparable to say, an Alberto Cabrera out of the pen. Probably better than Alberto (Secondaries seem like they are sharper), based on everything we know, but not ridiculously better. I just can't rank a power pen arm ahead of a potential young 3rd baseman likely to be in AAA that has a chance to be at least a 2nd division starter, unless said pen arm is elite, and I'm not sure we have enough to make that judgment right now.

 

If you want to argue Rivero ahead of Candelario, I can actually sort of buy that. I wouldn't myself, but I can see a case for that. After 10, it's somewhat of a crapshoot/mix, so I could see him fall anywhere after that, and I think that is fair for a power pen arm that we know enough about, but don't know a ton about.

 

Edit: Totally missed that Villanueva caught up to Candelario. If it ends up tied and I'm not around, add my "3rd" vote to Candelario (other two were, as of now, Villanueva and Ramirez). I'm holding off on the hopes Villanueva stays ahead, but if it's tied and we're headed to a run-off, might as well skip that.

Edited January 25, 2014 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

Vitters HR power potential is undersold, I think. I'm not a big fan and he's way further down on my list. But I think that he's physically strong enough to be a 25-HR guy, if he was playing regularly and was to have his hitting settle in.

 

Perhaps. Physically, he has always looked the part of a .300/25 HR type of guy. That said, prior to the PCL, his last really solid power season was in Low A. Is he coming into his own, and untapping his power? I never bothered to look at his PCL splits, so maybe there's a case for that, as the age range is right for him to be untapping his power. Still, I have my doubts with everything we've seen about him coming up. Here's hoping he proves me wrong, as that would be a nice asset to have in the upper levels.

[Guest]

sneaky is gonna say I'm crazy but I'd still rather have Vitters get the playing time that Lake is likely to get this year.

[craig]

Yeah. They rushed him along so fast. 14 HR in AA isn't great, but 14 HR at age 21 in AA isn't far below normal for a guy who might project to 25 as a full-time big-leaguer. And 17 in 415 AB at 22 in AAA isn't amazing, but it isn't much off track from what a guy might do who ends up being a 25-HR big-leaguer at age 27 in 600 AB.

 

I think the HR's have always been the question for Vitters. 25 HR might perhaps justify his defense, base running, personality, and walk rates. 15 HR, probably not.

 

If the guy could stay healthy all season, I won't be surprised if he puts up some pretty impressive numbers at Iowa.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I luuuurve me some Vitters, but 25 HRs was good for 30th in MLB last year.

[Cubswin11]

sneaky is gonna say I'm crazy but I'd still rather have Vitters get the playing time that Lake is likely to get this year.

I second

[craig]

I luuuurve me some Vitters, but 25 HRs was good for 30th in MLB last year.

 

Heh heh, I'm still adjusting to post-steroids context!

[Guest]

I felt good about going Villanueva at #9 and Candelario at #10.

 

Once we hit 11, I'm up in the air about the next six or so guys.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not nearly as down on Vitters as a lot of you, but I have a hard time seeing him fit into my personal top 20. I'm still a bit of a sucker for Szczur though.

[craig]

Villanueva has gotten pretty strong support. Obviously the glove is an asset and nobody's worried.

 

But with all his K's and his crummy OBP, are you guys pretty confident that he'll be an adequate hitter? Are you kind of looking to a .710-.760 OPS window guy in the majors, and seeing that as good value at spot 9/10? Or are you thinking that he'll improve enough so that he'll be able to withstand the big step up to the majors and be able to sustain or even improve on his .780's level minor-league OPS? Most guys drop a lot when facing the best pitching in the world, so I think it's pretty iffy whether he'll be able to sustain .700+ in the majors. But with his glove, and with the decline in offense league-wide, he could probably make a lot of millions if he can hit near .750. If he could do the .780's stuff that he's done in the minors, or even more, he'll be a really good asset player.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Yeah, a .750 OPS 3B with a gold glove is rarefied air these days.

[Guest]

Villanueva has gotten pretty strong support. Obviously the glove is an asset and nobody's worried.

 

But with all his K's and his crummy OBP, are you guys pretty confident that he'll be an adequate hitter? Are you kind of looking to a .710-.760 OPS window guy in the majors, and seeing that as good value at spot 9/10? Or are you thinking that he'll improve enough so that he'll be able to withstand the big step up to the majors and be able to sustain or even improve on his .780's level minor-league OPS? Most guys drop a lot when facing the best pitching in the world, so I think it's pretty iffy whether he'll be able to sustain .700+ in the majors. But with his glove, and with the decline in offense league-wide, he could probably make a lot of millions if he can hit near .750. If he could do the .780's stuff that he's done in the minors, or even more, he'll be a really good asset player.

I'm buying into the power as legit. In A-ball, he was a 30+ steals guy (when they were still talking he had a chance at 2B). I think he's thickened up his body enough that the speed may be gone, but the power is real. The Southern league is pretty neutral as a rule, so the 19 HR and 41 2B show what he can do pretty well. He did that at a pretty young age, too. He as an age 22 player last year, but with a 6/19 birthday, he was one of the younger "22 year olds".

 

I do think he can be a .750 - .780 OPS guy in the bigs. Combine that with his defense and he can be a pretty consistent 2-4 WAR guy.

 

That's a pretty solid prospect to be slotting in at #9, even in a strong system.

[mul21]

I think people are severely underestimating Hendricks at this point. He's been getting guys out for a while now with very few high end tools, but he clearly has something that works and I think he's much more likely to contribute to the ML team, and sooner, than a lot of the guys we're talking about at this point. I take him as a much more sure thing than Olt for sure at this point.

[Clem Fandango]

http://i.imgur.com/uITME9E.png

[Guest]

I voted Villanueva. People like to point to Candelario's improvement through last year(for good reason), but Villanueva's was even more stark after a horrific start:

 

Villanueva thru May 1: 94 PA, .200/.269/.306, 21/7 K/BB, 1 HR

 

Villanueva post May 1: 448 PA, .274/.327/.504, 96/27 K/BB, 18 HR

 

Toss in the great defense and I think he gets sold short a bit. His defense and advanced level pushes him past Candelario for me, and I have too many worries that Olt's vision won't be good enough and/or that his hit tool was always bound to fall apart at AAA Brett Jackson style.