Offseason Rumors

[Guest]

We're evidently asking for both Sanchez and Stroman, plus a 3rd piece from Toronto for Shark according to The Toronto Sun. AA has said he's willing to move one or the other in the right deal. Guess that gives us an idea on what our asking price is at least.....

 

One of them for Shark would be [expletive]. Pound sand AA

Would it? Both are top 50 prospects, Sanchez may be top 30. I'd be fine with either, assuming there's another useful piece or two involved.

 

Yes it would. TINSTAAPP is a phrase to sell books, but it's based on something very real. Pitching prospects yet to hit AAA are far less certain than their reputations.

Thats why I said another useful piece or two. Tirado or Norris, along with a guy like Gose, is enough to make me pull the trigger, if Sanchez or Stroman is the headliner. I understand the probabilities of pitching prospects vs. hitting prospects. But while the odds say it takes two top 50 pitching prospects to basically equal the same success rate as a single top 50 hitting prospect, it's yet to carry over into trades and it never will. Because finding TOR pitching is so hard to do. And we need pitching more than anything.

 

While you aren't saying this exactly, I think this is a bit like saying "they won't give us their 1 and 2 prospects, but what if they gave us 1, 3, 4, and 5?" If the Jays are so disinterested in giving up Sanchez and Stroman, I don't think they're going to be all that gung ho about Sanchez/Stroman and Gose and Norris and maybe something else.

 

That said, I'm not dogmatic about this. I've tried to be consistent about being realistic about the ROI from pitching prospects, but also that guys close to MLB ready need to be prioritized. I've never been as big a Sanchez as many and I like Nolin a lot more than the average. So if it were something like Stroman, Gose, and Nolin? That's a lot of value to me and I'm not dismissing it out of hand.

[KingCubsFan]

Gose strikes as someone who is really highly rated and everyone really wants to be good, but in reality he's just an athlete who is not a good baseball player.

[SouthSideRyan]

Why couldn't the Cubs kill two birds with one stone and include Rasmus in a deal? They still want a CF'er right? He's only got one more year, so he wouldn't cost a whole lot, and if he has a productive first half he can be flipped for more guys.

 

the new market inefficiency is being that guy who bought something on ebay for a dollar and sold it for two and then bought something for two and sold it for three and so on until he had a million bucks

 

The Ricketts made their real money on one red paperclip

[Infrequent Poster]

The Braves are close to a deal with free agent Gavin Floyd, according to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

 

You'd think that would kill any Samardzija talks with the Braves for the time being.

[neely crenshaw]

Allegedly we have extended Shark...

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/have-cubs-extended-jeff-samardzija-dan-dakich-says-yes?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

[Geech]

Allegedly we have extended Shark...

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/have-cubs-extended-jeff-samardzija-dan-dakich-says-yes?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

 

Access denied. I hope it's true, though.

 

EDIT: It is not: http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2013/12/14/5211198/jeff-samardzija-twitter-saturday

[imb]

suck a dick, bowden

 

The Cubs want Sanchez in an Samardzija deal, but they won’t get him. However, a package of Marcus Stroman, Daniel Norris and Anthony Gose probably gets it done. The Cubs need to keep building with prospects, and if they haven’t been able to sign Samardzija to an extension by now they should consider dealing him while the return is still high.

[North]

Bowden is terrible. He's so so so so so bad. Use his comments, analysis, etc. for comedic purposes only.

[davell]

That may not be all that bad of a value. Parks is going to have Stroman in his top 50 and Norris in his top 100. Not necessarily condoning the deal, but it's not awful, if you think Stroman is a starter.

[imb]

Would stroman be the shortest starting pitcher in the majors, assuming he makes it in a rotation

[CubsWin]

Would stroman be the shortest starting pitcher in the majors, assuming he makes it in a rotation

There is an interesting study on correlations between a pitcher's height and his effectiveness and durability from sabr.org back in 2010.

 

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

 

The author's conclusions (I have no idea how sound they are) are as follows:

The data speak for themselves. Baseball organizations have been scouting, signing, and developing players based on a fallacious assumption. Shorter pitchers are just as effective and durable as taller pitchers. If a player has the ability to get drafted, then he should be drafted in the round that fits his talent.

 

The opportunity for major-league clubs is currently at its greatest potential. Clubs that value short pitchers with talent have an opportunity similar to those of clubs that, a decade or more ago, valued on-base percentage at a time when many of their competitors did not.

Market inefficiency? Maybe, but Anthopoulus' unwillingness to part with Stroman in a trade for the 6'5" Samardzija and the Cubs desire to obtain him would indicate that, at least in Toronto and the northside of Chicago, there is no inefficiency to exploit.

 

As far as your direct question, would Stroman be the shortest starter in the majors were he to make it? As of right now, the answer is yes. But he wouldn't be the shortest pitcher in the game. Of the players currently on 40-man rosters that have pitched in a major league game, the Rangers Joe Ortiz holds that distinction at 5'7" tall. There are three pitchers, all relievers, that are 5'9", Eury De La Rosa, Danny Farquhar and Jason Frasor.

 

There are three current players that have started major league games that are 5'10". Wandy Rodriguez, Pedro Hernandez and Chad Gaudin, and ten that are 5'11", Johnny Cueto, Yordano Ventura, Travis Wood, Marco Estrada, Bartolo Colon, Vidal Nuno, Sonny Gray, Robbie Erlin, Tim Lincecum and Erasmo Ramirez.

 

You may notice that an unusually large percentage of those guys are left-handed. This supports the conclusion in the above study. The rarity of left-handed pitchers causes GMs to have to think outside the box. They don't have the luxury to discriminate on the basis of height and instead must set aside that notion in order to find pitchers talented enough to cut it in the major leagues. Talent is talent, and in the case of lefties, the fallacy that height is a good thing falls by the wayside. If it is true for left-handed pitchers, logic suggests that the same would hold true for righties as well.

 

All of that only solidly proves one thing, however. I clearly have way too much time on my hands...

[fromthestretch]

As far as your direct question, would Stroman be the shortest starter in the majors were he to make it? As of right now, the answer is yes. But he wouldn't be the shortest pitcher in the game. Of the players currently on 40-man rosters that have pitched in a major league game, the Rangers Joe Ortiz holds that distinction at 5'7" tall.

 

Tim Collins of the Royals is also listed at 5'7".

[CubsWin]

As far as your direct question, would Stroman be the shortest starter in the majors were he to make it? As of right now, the answer is yes. But he wouldn't be the shortest pitcher in the game. Of the players currently on 40-man rosters that have pitched in a major league game, the Rangers Joe Ortiz holds that distinction at 5'7" tall.

 

Tim Collins of the Royals is also listed at 5'7".

Ah, thanks, good catch. Going thru all 30 teams 40-man rosters I was bound to miss somebody...

[pitchcs]

As far as your direct question, would Stroman be the shortest starter in the majors were he to make it? As of right now, the answer is yes. But he wouldn't be the shortest pitcher in the game. Of the players currently on 40-man rosters that have pitched in a major league game, the Rangers Joe Ortiz holds that distinction at 5'7" tall.

 

Tim Collins of the Royals is also listed at 5'7".

[ctcf]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/12/18/what-the-cubs-wanted-from-the-braves-for-jeff-samardzija-and-rebuilding-considerations/

 

Pretty interesting if the Cubs were actually asking for Heyward or Upton.

[Cubswin11]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/12/18/what-the-cubs-wanted-from-the-braves-for-jeff-samardzija-and-rebuilding-considerations/

 

Pretty interesting if the Cubs were actually asking for Heyward or Upton.

I wonder if the Braves tried to force us to take Uggla's contract back with one of those guys for Samardzija?

[Guest]

so we kind of have to re-sign samardzija now, right?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

so we kind of have to re-sign samardzija now, right?

 

I think we kind of have to trade him.

[Boris]

Most definitely have to trade him. Next off season should be interesting. I imagine the Cubs spending like mad men.

[Guest]

if we're willing to spend in 9 months, why not sign a really good starting pitcher right now?

 

are we completely giving up on 2015 now just because we missed out on tanaka? samardzija is 28 and fits the organization's biggest need. trading him would kind of piss me off, now that i think about it more.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

if we're willing to spend in 9 months, why not sign a really good starting pitcher right now?

 

are we completely giving up on 2015 now just because we missed out on tanaka? samardzija is 28 and fits the organization's biggest need. trading him would kind of piss me off, now that i think about it more.

 

I think the most likely scenario is that we won't be serious enough about contending in 2015 to warrant passing on the prospect return that he would net.

 

28 now means 30 when the window opens. 30 is dead to us.

[Guest]

in other words, you think the cubs should stay bottomed out.

[Cubswin11]

Most definitely have to trade him. Next off season should be interesting. I imagine the Cubs spending like mad men.

The 2015 FA market is pretty much a dumpster fire, especially on the starting pitching side

[MWV]

in other words, you think the cubs should stay bottomed out.

I can't speak for Kyle. However, I don't think its a matter of what they should do, but rather what they will do.

This has been a pretty brutal offseason. If it suggests anything, it is that the FO is committed to their goals, near-term pain be damned. And their goals include gathering quality prospects at the expense of retaining aging/expensive players. I'd be shocked if they seek to extend him now. Especially when you consider that Samardzija doesn't seem too keen on signing a team-friendly extension.

 

On the bright side, the door swings both ways. Prospects can be dealt for quality players.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

in other words, you think the cubs should stay bottomed out.

 

I think they should go balls-to-the-wall and try to put out a winner in 2014 with what little time they have left.

 

But they're not going to do that. And I don't think they'll do it in 2015, either. So might as well get what we can for Samardzija