Offseason Rumors

[Clem Fandango]

Trade Samardzija for, at least, one top pitching prospect (two if you can get it) that's in AA/AAA this year and will be primed for MLB by spring next season. Supplement it with a FA pitcher next offseason, of which there are some nice ones available (Masterson and Scherzer come to mind). At some point one or two of Vogelbach, Olt, or Alcantara have to go (or Castro). That can be used for more pitching. It's not inconceivable. Likely? Eh, maybe. But it's possible.

[SouthSideRyan]

Trade Samardzija for, at least, one top pitching prospect (two if you can get it) that's in AA/AAA this year and will be primed for MLB by spring next season. Supplement it with a FA pitcher next offseason, of which there are some nice ones available (Masterson and Scherzer come to mind). At some point one or two of Vogelbach, Olt, or Alcantara have to go (or Castro). That can be used for more pitching. It's not inconceivable. Likely? Eh, maybe. But it's possible.

 

So take one of the few sure things on our roster (a reliable starting pitcher) and turn him into another risk

[treebird]

Trade Samardzija for, at least, one top pitching prospect (two if you can get it) that's in AA/AAA this year and will be primed for MLB by spring next season. Supplement it with a FA pitcher next offseason, of which there are some nice ones available (Masterson and Scherzer come to mind). At some point one or two of Vogelbach, Olt, or Alcantara have to go (or Castro). That can be used for more pitching. It's not inconceivable. Likely? Eh, maybe. But it's possible.

 

So take one of the few sure things on our roster (a reliable starting pitcher) and turn him into another risk

 

and convince the top available free agent to sign with a 65 win team for 80% of what everyone else is offering

[Clem Fandango]

Trade Samardzija for, at least, one top pitching prospect (two if you can get it) that's in AA/AAA this year and will be primed for MLB by spring next season. Supplement it with a FA pitcher next offseason, of which there are some nice ones available (Masterson and Scherzer come to mind). At some point one or two of Vogelbach, Olt, or Alcantara have to go (or Castro). That can be used for more pitching. It's not inconceivable. Likely? Eh, maybe. But it's possible.

 

So take one of the few sure things on our roster (a reliable starting pitcher) and turn him into another risk

 

and convince the top available free agent to sign with a 65 win team for 80% of what everyone else is offering

 

So how do you two propose we improve our rotation?

[SouthSideRyan]

Trade Samardzija for, at least, one top pitching prospect (two if you can get it) that's in AA/AAA this year and will be primed for MLB by spring next season. Supplement it with a FA pitcher next offseason, of which there are some nice ones available (Masterson and Scherzer come to mind). At some point one or two of Vogelbach, Olt, or Alcantara have to go (or Castro). That can be used for more pitching. It's not inconceivable. Likely? Eh, maybe. But it's possible.

 

So take one of the few sure things on our roster (a reliable starting pitcher) and turn him into another risk

 

and convince the top available free agent to sign with a 65 win team for 80% of what everyone else is offering

 

So how do you two propose we improve our rotation?

 

It's a difficult question, are we going to continue forward carrying an 80M payroll, or are we going to act like a real team? If we're acting like a real team, than my first way to improve our rotation would be to not trade away the best pitcher in it.

[davell]

Most definitely have to trade him. Next off season should be interesting. I imagine the Cubs spending like mad men.

The 2015 FA market is pretty much a dumpster fire, especially on the starting pitching side

 

I agree that OVERALL the FA market in 2015 is a dumpster fire, but SP is the strength of it.

 

From a position player standpoint, the best available are as follows....

 

Russell Martin-not a need for us

Michael Cuddyer- Not sure if he's still decent in the OF or not, but at 36, I'd guess the answer is no.

Asdrubal Cabrera- Not a need for us

Jed Lowrie- My hope is he's not a need, but considering he can play 2B, SS, and 3B, I guess he's a slight possibility, even if I think we'll be set at all 3, heading into 2015.

Chase Headley- Again, not a likely need, but it depends on what happens, I suppose.

Pablo Sandoval- See Headley

Hanley Ramirez- If the Dodgers don't lock him up, it's likely because he's not able to stay healthy. Plus, with his want to stick at SS, he's not a great fit with us as it is.

Brett Gardner- If the Yanks don't lock him up, he'd be a nice get for us and many other teams as well.

Josh Willingham- At 36, he'll be old, but a short term deal could make some semblance of sense for a bunch of teams, including us.

Coco Crisp- At 35, my guess is he'll find a longer deal than we'd want to give out.

Colby Rasmus- This is the guy I think we could target, but something screams BJ Upton type mistake to me, for some reason. Still, at 28, he's a logical target.

 

 

For Starting Pitching, it's this group.....

 

Chad Billingsley- He's coming off TJS, but I've always sort of liked him. He'd be a nice 2-3 year mid rotation type, if he comes back healthy.

Homer Bailey- Definite target.

Jorge De La Rosa- Decent mid rotation lefty, probably too old and gets too many years for us anyway.

Ryan Dempster- Yeah, just no.

Yovani Gallardo- 13 mill option, if he hits FA, decent mid rotation guy, with ability to put together a frontline year still.

Josh Johnson- Pitching in SD could put him back on the map.

Jon Lester- doubt he hits FA, definite target, if he does.

Danny Masterson- Will hit FA, another definite target.

Brandon McCarthy- he'll likely be in same spot as last time, searching for a multi-year deal.

Brandon Morrow- 10 mill option, if he's healthy, my guess is it'd get picked up.

Jake Peavy- Nice shorter term option.

Max Scherzer- He may wind up sticking in Detroit, but he'll test FA at least.

James Shields- Can't see the Royals ponying up for him, at his age. Which may take him out of the running for us as well.

 

As for Shark? If we look at Wood, Jackson, and at one of Arrieta, Hendricks, Rusin, or whoever as definites for next year, with Wood showing that 2013 wasn't a fluke? It'd be nice to keep him, but is he really the guy you want to be paying 17-20 mill a year to?

 

If we can get back a Stroman, a Gausman, or a Sanchez or some other top 50 pitching prospect(and much more) is their upside as high as Shark's is? Are you comfortable banking on one of them or CJ or PJ becoming at least a 3 long term? And being a rotation guy in 2015, on top of that? If so, that extra cash saved from Shark's longterm deal WOULD be very valuable. I just don't know which way I lean honestly.

[Clem Fandango]

Trade Samardzija for, at least, one top pitching prospect (two if you can get it) that's in AA/AAA this year and will be primed for MLB by spring next season. Supplement it with a FA pitcher next offseason, of which there are some nice ones available (Masterson and Scherzer come to mind). At some point one or two of Vogelbach, Olt, or Alcantara have to go (or Castro). That can be used for more pitching. It's not inconceivable. Likely? Eh, maybe. But it's possible.

 

So take one of the few sure things on our roster (a reliable starting pitcher) and turn him into another risk

 

and convince the top available free agent to sign with a 65 win team for 80% of what everyone else is offering

 

So how do you two propose we improve our rotation?

 

It's a difficult question, are we going to continue forward carrying an 80M payroll, or are we going to act like a real team? If we're acting like a real team, than my first way to improve our rotation would be to not trade away the best pitcher in it.

 

Hypothetically, say Poor Tom Ricketts bumped up payroll to a $95 million threshold. You've got $15 million extra in wiggle room to play with.

[davell]

Nah, you've also got Soriano's 13 mill coming off our current payroll.

[Clem Fandango]

As for Shark? If we look at Wood, Jackson, and at one of Arrieta, Hendricks, Rusin, or whoever as definites for next year, with Wood showing that 2013 wasn't a fluke? It'd be nice to keep him, but is he really the guy you want to be paying 17-20 mill a year to?

 

If we can get back a Stroman, a Gausman, or a Sanchez or some other top 50 pitching prospect(and much more) is their upside as high as Shark's is? Are you comfortable banking on one of them or CJ or PJ becoming at least a 3 long term? And being a rotation guy in 2015, on top of that? If so, that extra cash saved from Shark's longterm deal WOULD be very valuable. I just don't know which way I lean honestly.

 

This is the situation I envision and playing it out in my head, to me, it makes more sense to trade him. I'd have more faith in the FO targeting talent that can develop into successful big league arms than Samardzija improving over what he already is. Paying Samardzija = keeping the rotation the way it is, and the rotation right now isn't acceptable from a long term perspective, IMO. I'd rather use the Samardzija money for someone else. Cubs could also be daft and trade one of the big bats for an impact pitcher, too. If they move Samardzija for an arm(s), and don't explore the FA market for pitching next offseason, I could see Soler being moved in a package for an impact pitcher (provided he doesn't fall of a cliff).

[SouthSideRyan]

Nah, you've also got Soriano's 13 mill coming off our current payroll.

 

Which is wiped out by arb raises. BR has an estimated 70.5M committed for 2015, though this would include Shark's Arb 3 estimate. So with 25M to play with, SP and OF being the only overwhelming needs, and the pathetic rumored returns for Samardzija, yes, I'd extend Shark

[SouthSideRyan]

It's sad what just a return to our 2007 payroll level could do for next offseason, and it's sadder that I'm not confident it will get there.

 

WHERE'S MY [expletive] TV DEAL TY

 

So we can start renovating the stadium or something

Edited January 23, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[davell]

Nah, you've also got Soriano's 13 mill coming off our current payroll.

 

Which is wiped out by arb raises. BR has an estimated 70.5M committed for 2015, though this would include Shark's Arb 3 estimate. So with 25M to play with, SP and OF being the only overwhelming needs, and the pathetic rumored returns for Samardzija, yes, I'd extend Shark

I'm weighing that versus having the extra 10 mill of Shark's salary to play with. I'm trying to decide what I like better: Shark, PJ and CJ versus 10 mill, PJ, CJ, a top 50 pitching prospect and likely a top 100 type as well.

 

Edit: Didn't catch the pathetic returns part. If the return is LESS than a top 50, and a top 100, I definitely would NOT deal him. Other than Atlanta, who has no farm system anyway, I'm not remembering what rumors you're talking about. AA mentioned he'd consider dealing one of his 2 main guys, we just wanted both. Baltimore is stingy, but that can't surprise anyone. I can't blame KT for not dealing us Archie, I'm sure Skaggs and more was on the table, which may have been decent.

[davell]

Nah, you've also got Soriano's 13 mill coming off our current payroll.

 

Which is wiped out by arb raises. BR has an estimated 70.5M committed for 2015, though this would include Shark's Arb 3 estimate. So with 25M to play with, SP and OF being the only overwhelming needs, and the pathetic rumored returns for Samardzija, yes, I'd extend Shark

I'm weighing that versus having the extra 10 mill of Shark's salary to play with. I'm trying to decide what I like better: Shark, PJ and CJ versus 10 mill, PJ, CJ, a top 50 pitching prospect and likely a top 100 type as well.

 

Edit: Didn't see the pathetic return comment. If we can't get a top 50 and a top 100 guy, I'm NOT dealing him. Atlanta has no farm system currently, Baltimore is stingy to begin with. AA seemed willing to deal one of his 2 main guys, just not both. That was a solid start, depending on what else was in the package. I can't blame KT for not dealing Archie obviously, my guess is Skaggs plus was on the table, which COULD have been interesting.....

[jersey cubs fan]

Nah, you've also got Soriano's 13 mill coming off our current payroll.

 

Which is wiped out by arb raises. BR has an estimated 70.5M committed for 2015, though this would include Shark's Arb 3 estimate. So with 25M to play with, SP and OF being the only overwhelming needs, and the pathetic rumored returns for Samardzija, yes, I'd extend Shark

 

Eh, I don't think Samardzija is actually going to be all that good for the next few years, and with it being so obvious that Tanaka was going to be a one off, I could go either way here. He's there's to use for the next two years anyway. I see very little value in extending him, unless you think you will need to extend him to convince others to come here. But I just don't see other players viewing Samardzija as that type of player.

[Bull]

Nah, you've also got Soriano's 13 mill coming off our current payroll.

 

Which is wiped out by arb raises. BR has an estimated 70.5M committed for 2015, though this would include Shark's Arb 3 estimate. So with 25M to play with, SP and OF being the only overwhelming needs, and the pathetic rumored returns for Samardzija, yes, I'd extend Shark

 

Eh, I don't think Samardzija is actually going to be all that good for the next few years, and with it being so obvious that Tanaka was going to be a one off, I could go either way here. He's there's to use for the next two years anyway. I see very little value in extending him, unless you think you will need to extend him to convince others to come here. But I just don't see other players viewing Samardzija as that type of player.

I think unless you can get a ML ready sp for him, you ride it out with Shark. Keep pushing for an extension on your terms. And remind him how difficult it is to be a free agent pitcher with a qualifying offer around your neck. In the meantime, build the team to the point that he sees a winner and stays when the time comes. Be willing to make the QO and take the comp. if he improves, you get your ml ready sp, if he fades, he signs a cheaper extension.

 

The way the system works now, the team can just wait it out.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah I should've been clearer, I see no need to extend shark this offseason

[davell]

At any rate, we've got some time to figure out what to do with him. Because he's not going anywhere right now. The PR nightmare, after recent events, and the potential backlash in ticket sales, surely means midseason is the earliest this is revisited.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

At any rate, we've got some time to figure out what to do with him. Because he's not going anywhere right now. The PR nightmare, after recent events, and the potential backlash in ticket sales, surely means midseason is the earliest this is revisited.

 

You're going with "they won't risk the backlash..." after all this?

[KingCubsFan]

At any rate, we've got some time to figure out what to do with him. Because he's not going anywhere right now. The PR nightmare, after recent events, and the potential backlash in ticket sales, surely means midseason is the earliest this is revisited.

Eh, I don't know about that. One, the front office could care less about public backlash. If they get the package they want for him, they'll trade him. Second, most Cubs fans aren't that upset by Tanaka signing with the Yankees. Most reactions I've seen are "Well of course he signed with the Yankees. Why should anyone be surprised by that?" Third, at this point, trading players for prospects probably fits more into the overall organizational message at this point. Based on everything I saw about the Convention, it seems the organization's message is "Wait until you see these prospects!" Adding more pitching prospects to the mix just further supports that.

[davell]

At any rate, we've got some time to figure out what to do with him. Because he's not going anywhere right now. The PR nightmare, after recent events, and the potential backlash in ticket sales, surely means midseason is the earliest this is revisited.

 

You're going with "they won't risk the backlash..." after all this?

 

Yeah, I am. The Tanaka thing was bad enough, considering they hung the entire offseason on it and probably didn't have the funds to get it done. Payroll is going to drop 20% from last year and will be bottom 10 in MLB for sure, the rooftop disaster is a development that puts starting the renovations NEXT year at risk.

 

As valuable as money is to Ricketts, it's unfortunately got to be impacting Theo at this point. I don't see it happening as the potential of "[expletive] it, I can't take any more of this [expletive]" WILL happen at some point to plenty and already has to some.

 

How much could trading Shark before the season started hurt revenue? It's unquantifiable, but it could legitimately hurt, as a possible tipping point(if it hasn't already). Every dollar lost has to be taken into account. Welcome to small market baseball Theo.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I admire your resilience.

[treebird]

all the casual fans are already gone. anyone still paying attention to this godforsaken team is locked into place, at least until baez strikes out in 40% of his aaa pa and bryant takes a fastball to the skull and gets immediate-onset cte named after him.

[Boris]

LOL

[Vinestal]

all the casual fans are already gone. anyone still paying attention to this godforsaken team is locked into place, at least until baez strikes out in 40% of his aaa pa and bryant takes a fastball to the skull and gets immediate-onset cte named after him.

:good:

[ctcf]

Nothing new or earth-shattering, but Rosenthal seems to think that the DBacks may revisit Shark:

 

The D-Backs were willing to lose the 16th pick for free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, and their top priority remains a front-line starter. But they are more inclined to revisit a trade for Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija than pursue Santana or Jimenez.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/which-teams-are-willing-to-lose-draft-picks-for-free-agents-012614