Offseason Rumors

[CyHawk_Cub]

If that's true, I still hope the FO continues to hold-out for Bradley as the return. Yeah, I know D-Backs likely won't do that trade, but I'd rather roll the dice on Shark going forward than lesser prospect arms. JMO

[davell]

Towers has been adamant about not trading Bradley. I think they'd have to get a 3rd team involved. Delgado, Owings flipped to a 3rd team for pitching prospects, and Jose Martinez wouldn't be awful. But I still think the Cubs would hold on to Shark, as that type of deal should be available down the line as well.

[StarlinOnYou]

Why in the world would ARZ trade Bradley for Shark? That would be the equivalent to us trading Baez for someone like Doug Fister.

 

They could just flip Bradley for David Price if they were ever even entertaining the idea to trade Bradley.

[Guest]

Baez is an order of magnitude more valuable that Bradley. Pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects who haven't excelled at high levels like Bradley, are not nearly as valuable as their reputation.

[pitchcs]

Baez is an order of magnitude more valuable that Bradley. Pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects who haven't excelled at high levels like Bradley, are not nearly as valuable as their reputation.

 

But still, he's basically correct.

[Benny Rodriguez]

If a trade does happen, it has got to be for a couple of top arms. Missing out on Tanaka makes getting this right probably the key to getting overt the top in the near future. We have so few arms in the system, No clear "ace" type picture in the near future and outside of maybe Price, there is no one out there on the market anytime soon, that we can even buy to get an an ace. If we don't maximize this asset, either on the field or through a trade, it could really derail the team even if our offensive talent develops.

 

On the other hand, there are a lot of arms that will be there in the draft, I have to think we won't pass on one this time around. However at #4 I'm not sure we can get a "close to ready" arm. It would be nice to get Rondon from NC State and there are a couple of others that might be similar to Gray last year, but part of where they fall will depend on their seasons.

With Houston and Miami at #1 and #2 it looks like they will grab the top 2 pitchers. We can hope 1 will grab the high school kid.

[pitchcs]

Where I don't agree is there being no available arms in the near future besides Price. Just next year you have Masterson, Homer Bailey, Scherzer and Lester (?) I think. And the next year Hamels and Cain??

 

No, there won't be a Kershaw/Sale/Darvish available, but eventually one of those types of guys will be available to us in the draft in a strong year.

[Guest]

Where I don't agree is there being no available arms in the near future besides Price. Just next year you have Masterson, Homer Bailey, Scherzer and Lester (?) I think. And the next year Hamels and Cain??

 

No, there won't be a Kershaw/Sale/Darvish available, but eventually one of those types of guys will be available to us in the draft in a strong year.

I'm not slamming your post, but what makes anyone think that Theo/Ricketts has the wherewithal to get a top tier free agent? Nothing in their track record shows that.

[Guest]

Baez is an order of magnitude more valuable that Bradley. Pitching prospects, especially pitching prospects who haven't excelled at high levels like Bradley, are not nearly as valuable as their reputation.

 

But still, he's basically correct.

 

He is not. If Bradley could remotely counted on to approximate Samardzija's performance, then sure, but you're bypassing the uncertainty by dealing for him without really sacrificing any upside because of the quality of Shark's stuff.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Our most recent offer to Jeff was 5 years / $55 million, which he (obviously) rejected. Would really like to know the ballpark amount he's asked for given how poopy the reported trade offers we're hearing about.

[Tryptamine]

Our most recent offer to Jeff was 5 years / $55 million, which he (obviously) rejected. Would really like to know the ballpark amount he's asked for given how poopy the reported trade offers we're hearing about.

 

If I remember correctly he was basically asking for 5 years all at free agent prices instead of 2 years at arb prices and 3 at FA prices. If I had to guess based on that I'd think he asked for 5/75 to 5/80 which is absurd. Figure in two years of arbitration is roughly 12 million that means you're be giving him 20 to 21M a year over the last 3 years comparatively.

[hankp101]

At this point unless someone blows us away. I'd rather let Shark start the season with the cubs. If he excels his trade price goes up, if he doesn't the price of extending him goes down.

 

 

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[Hairyducked Idiot]

At this point unless someone blows us away. I'd rather let Shark start the season with the cubs. If he excels his trade price goes up, if he doesn't the price of extending him goes down.

 

 

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If he doesn't, why would we want to extend him?

[SouthSideRyan]

Our most recent offer to Jeff was 5 years / $55 million, which he (obviously) rejected. Would really like to know the ballpark amount he's asked for given how poopy the reported trade offers we're hearing about.

 

If I remember correctly he was basically asking for 5 years all at free agent prices instead of 2 years at arb prices and 3 at FA prices. If I had to guess based on that I'd think he asked for 5/75 to 5/80 which is absurd. Figure in two years of arbitration is roughly 12 million that means you're be giving him 20 to 21M a year over the last 3 years comparatively.

 

If Jeff Samardzija gets roughly 12 million over 2 years of arbitration, we have a bigger issue in that Jeff Samardzija died. 3rd year arb players are compared to FAs in terms of contracts. Shark only has one year of "arb prices"

Edited January 28, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[hankp101]

At this point unless someone blows us away. I'd rather let Shark start the season with the cubs. If he excels his trade price goes up, if he doesn't the price of extending him goes down.

 

 

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If he doesn't, why would we want to extend him?

Because an underwhelming first half will still likely leave him as our best starting pitcher.

 

 

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[Guest]

The midpoint in the arbitration numbers for Samardzija this year is 5.3 million, is it really that crazy an estimate? Even if you call it 15-16 million the point doesn't really change.

[jersey cubs fan]

At this point unless someone blows us away. I'd rather let Shark start the season with the cubs. If he excels his trade price goes up, if he doesn't the price of extending him goes down.

 

If he doesn't, why would we want to extend him?

Because an underwhelming first half will still likely leave him as our best starting pitcher.

 

With a very limited resume at a relatively advanced age. Unless he's suddenly dying to give a discount there would be no reason to sign him after a disappointing first half. And I cannot imagine him suddenly offering a discount unless he was hiding some sort of injury.

[hankp101]

For this team to be competitive in 2015 and 2016 they need at least 2 above average starting pitchers. I like the chances of shark being one of them more than j like the chances of signing 2 guys like bailey and Max that may or may not reach free agency. I also think that in order for our pitching to sync with our hitting prospects we need to have a couple gambles pay off. Waiting to deal Garza didn't work out as planned but I'm cool with betting on shark to up his value. Unless we get a great offer now of course.

[Sammy Sofa]

Uhhhhhh, so far the return on trading Garza later is looking pretty great.

[hankp101]

Uhhhhhh, so far the return on trading Garza later is looking pretty great.

Absolutely, but I think it's still fair to say he didn't build value the way they hoped. I'd assume they'd have gotten even more if he'd been lights out

 

 

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[Hairyducked Idiot]

Uhhhhhh, so far the return on trading Garza later is looking pretty great.

 

We got one top-100 pitching prospect, a guy who can't see and two AAAA guys.

 

I like the return, but it's nothing like we were talking about getting for him back in 2012.

[MWV]

Wasn't Olt the rumored centerpiece for a 2012 Garza deal?

[Benny Rodriguez]

As far as you will be available, it sounds like Schrezer and Lester are pretty sure it resign with their teams.

But we are talking a true TOR guy.

Cain had huge drop off to 4.00 era last season, depends on what he comes up with this year but you have to worry.

Masterson career 4.03 era, had a great year but then he was almost a 5.00 the season before that.

Hammels is 2018 with a team option for 2019 when he'll be 36.

 

So Bailey could be the only target as a top end guy. He's young enough and is trending up as far as performance. Mat Latos is younger(26) and has been better, and he is free after 2015. I'm sure cincy will only be able to sign 1 if any of them.

Edited January 28, 2014 by Benny Rodriguez

[Guest]

Wasn't Olt the rumored centerpiece for a 2012 Garza deal?

 

To the Rangers at the deadline.

 

Prior to the 2012 season, we allegedly could have gotten Jacob Turner, but I think we wanted Turner AND Castellanos.

[MWV]

Ahh. Ok, thanks for the clarification.