Offseason Rumors

[Post Count Padder]

MLB Trade Rumors' predictions:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/2014-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions-1.html

 

They have us signing Chris Young and Joaquin Benoit, FWIW.

[Post Count Padder]

George A. King III and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post report that the Yankees have expressed interest in Omar Infante, and could make a run at signing the free agent second baseman if Robinson Cano signs elsewhere.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So after all that, Arguello settles on an interpretation that $25m-$35m being on top of existing commitments, and that remaining money has to pay for arbitration guys, pre-arb renewal guys and any pending free agents.

 

IF that were true, that'd mean we'd be in for a very scrimpy offseason and the front office would have to get pretty creative just to have a functional offseason that fills all of the roster holes to a minimally acceptable level. If we tendered every arbitration-eligible guy, gave them their projection from MLBTradeRumors (which were pretty close to spot-on last year) and filled out the roster with renewals and mimimums, that would put us up at $75m total already, with nothing to $10m to play with. You'll need to shed some salary via non-tenders and/or trades just to have a functional offseason.

 

I have no idea if Arguello's source is correct or knowledgeable, and at this point I have no idea if Arguello is capable of reporting such a source accurately. But I have two questions about it:

 

1) Is it plausible? Yes. Well, it's basically the worst-case for payroll in what we've all talked about as plausible scenarios. The lowered ticket sales, the massive no-shows not buying concessions, the possibly lower radio deal, the initial outlay on the renovations, I think there were even rumors of some major debt payments coming due this winter. All of that would have to be eating away at MLB payroll.

 

2) Are we seeing things that fit in with this scenario? I'd say yes. Here's some things we've seen, said or done of late that make a ton of sense if you view if through this lens:

- Reversing our "would rather eat salary to get better prospects" position from 2012, and dumping salary in almost every 2013 trade

- Dumping David DeJesus (whose option was picked up today) and Ronald Torreyes for nothing but cash savings

- Epstein coming out and saying lots of things like "We won't solve our problems through free agency. It's a very viable and sometimes attractive way to add talent, and to be a great organization you have to do it from time to time. Given our situation on a lot of fronts, it's not the cure for our ills." before the offseason starts.

- A seeming interest in positive PR not driven by player acquisitions, like keeping your manager search in the headlines for a month and organizing meetings with STH.

- A willingness to trade some of your mid-price players. That $5m each saved by trading Castro and Samardzija doesn't seem so trivial all of a sudden, and we do seem amazingly open to trading them (not that the prospect haul wouldn't be the primary reasons).

 

Sure, there's some other data points (IFA spending, the rumored Girardi offer) that don't fit that narrative as easily. It's wouldn't completely shock me to have Theo come out into free agency all "lulz j/k" and signing Ellsbury and trading for Price. But after two straight years of spending the run-up to the offseason drooling over big-ticket items only to see payroll slashed, I'm not finding it that hard to believe that it could happen a third time.

[davell]

We were put in a no-win situation with DeJesus. I'm sure we COULD have dealt him. But when Washington claimed him, it screwed us. We could keep him and exercise his option OR we could save some cash. His trade value at 6.5 mill in 2014? Probably non-existant, plus we wanted to open up more playing time for Lake and Bogusevic. I'm all aboard the "Ricketts is cheap" train obviously.....But this wasn't an issue of that, our hands got tied by Washington, who still got an extremely meh return for him anyway.

 

As for the rest though-I don't think this will be a middling offseason. I think there will be major moves or I think there will be extremely little happening. Not really a middle ground, in my opinion.

 

If our FO is going to sacrifice our 2nd round pick on a FA this offseason, then I think they'll give up their 3rd rounder too. Or else they give up none, in which is a very good and deep draft. The system is deep, but if they miss out on the elite guys, I don't think they'd give up the 2nd rounder for a Curtis Granderson type, for instance......If they signed one of Ellsbury or Choo though, I definitely think we could see them also add Ubaldo.

 

At some point,(I think its now) Ricketts HAS to bite the bullet and come off some money SOMEHOW. The backlash has already been apparent by a steady drop in ticket sales. To the point that the extra MLB money only cancels out our losses, while every other team has an extra 25 mill to throw around. Does this mean you sign guys just to sign them? Of course not. But the FA cupboard looks even worse over the next 2 years as it does now. If we're not capable of signing a couple of 50+ mill types, its going to be harder to do so in the future just based on scarcity.

 

The other strategy I see is not signing any Qualified players, but signing a couple of very high end non qualifiers. Maybe Salty and Infante? Then trading Castillo for the best young SP he can bring back or something like that. A team built that way would be improved from last year and also wouldn't mess with our top minor leaguers yet. With Theo being super cautious with the prospects, I'm actually leaning towards this type of offseason.(as far as what I'm expecting to happen, not what I want to happen)

 

Types of Offseasons

 

1) The All-in. As Toronto did last year. Think adding 2 Qualified players in FA and at least one extremely solid trade for a cost controlled player.

 

2) The testing of the waters. Sign one big name and make one positive traction trade. Would show the movement forward everyone is hoping for and shows Theo thinks its getting close.

 

3) The Hendry splash. Sign one big name just to generate excitement. This would be a Ricketts influenced move, not what I'm pulling for.

 

4) The hopeful moves. Signing high level non Qualified guys, gives us decent enough upgrades to where we're content heading into the year thinking "if just a few things happen, who knows?"

 

5) The #PoorTomRicketts The offseason where Theo says he wants Bogusevic in the lineup, Rusin in the rotation, Strop at closer, with the addition of a shiny new backup C, a righty platoon OFer, and a veteran, cheap bullpen "stabilizer". Fan revolt, followed by apathy a very legit concern.

 

In order of likelihood, in my mind? 4, 2, 5, 3, and 1.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

TomLoxas ‏@TomLoxas 15m

#Cubs are planning on letting teams know they will be listening on Castro/ Castillo. They are shopping Samardzija.

[jersey cubs fan]

Planning on letting teams know they will listen vs shopping. I guess planning to inform that you won't hang up is a less aggressive form of shopping.

[SouthSideRyan]

Samardzija must've told them to [expletive] off on a contract extension

[treebird]

Samardzija must've told them to [expletive] off on a contract extension

 

apparently 10 free trades per year on ameritrade was not quite the incentive jeff needed to sign a 2 year extension at the league minimum

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Planning on letting teams know they will listen vs shopping. I guess planning to inform that you won't hang up is a less aggressive form of shopping.

 

Shopping a player requires outgoing phone calls, which are expensive. The Cubs are planning to let teams know whenever those teams happen to call for whatever reason.

[Guest]

What do they plan to do with SS if they trade Castro? Anyone?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What do they plan to do with SS if they trade Castro? Anyone?

 

Stopgap until Baez is ready.

[SouthSideRyan]

What do they plan to do with SS if they trade Castro? Anyone?

 

Barney for 2 months followed by Baez would be my assumption

[Clem Fandango]

I want my power infield, damnit!

[HoopsCubs]

I don't think this offseason is as complicated as some of you are making it out to be. For the Cubs front office, the real season starts in 2015. They really don't care what their record is in 2014. They have only 5 desires between now and Spring Training 2015:

 

- find a manager who can teach, communicate and relate to a young and inexperienced nucleus

- acquire top of the rotation capable arms

- facilitate the process of their key minor league prospects (mostly hitting, some pitching) continuing to make significant progress

- hope their key acquisitions playing in the big leagues today (e.g. Rizzo, Wood, Strop, Arietta, Grimm) each takes a solid step forward

- land a top 10 draft pick in the 2015 draft

 

As far as free agency goes, I don't think they see any long term solutions save for Tanaka, who they realize will in all likelihood be a Dodger, Angel, Ranger, Mariner, Red Sock or Yankee. The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative. They will continue to hunt for flippable 1 or 2 year guys - the Scott Kazmirs, Chris Youngs, Nate McLouths and Josh Johnsons of the world. They could dip into catching if they get an offer they can't refuse for Castillo.

 

They seem very happy with their prospects in terms of long term hitting potential.

 

Their concern is #2 - pitching. And that's why I think this offseason is all about moving Samardzija, Castro, Schierholtz, Russell and even Castillo to get 2 or 3 top of the rotation ceiling guys, who are less than 2 years away. And supplement that group with excellent college pitchers, who they might find with their first round picks 2014 and 2015.

 

It's fascinating to watch the build-up!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For the Cubs front office, the real season starts in 2015.

 

I'm not saying you are incorrect, but we've been seeing those exact sentiments with every advancing dates for two years now. And if things go badly this year, I expect we'll starting hearing that 2016 or 2017 is the real season.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't think this offseason is as complicated as some of you are making it out to be. For the Cubs front office, the real season starts in 2015. They really don't care what their record is in 2014. They have only 5 desires between now and Spring Training 2015:

 

- land a top 10 draft pick in the 2015 draft

 

We know it's not complicated. What that is is depressing. Depressing, sad and pathetic.

 

Plus, inexcusable.

[treebird]

I don't think this offseason is as complicated as some of you are making it out to be. For the Cubs front office, the real season starts in 2015. They really don't care what their record is in 2014. They have only 5 desires between now and Spring Training 2015:

 

- find a manager who can teach, communicate and relate to a young and inexperienced nucleus

- acquire top of the rotation capable arms

- facilitate the process of their key minor league prospects (mostly hitting, some pitching) continuing to make significant progress

- hope their key acquisitions playing in the big leagues today (e.g. Rizzo, Wood, Strop, Arietta, Grimm) each takes a solid step forward

- land a top 10 draft pick in the 2015 draft

 

As far as free agency goes, I don't think they see any long term solutions save for Tanaka, who they realize will in all likelihood be a Dodger, Angel, Ranger, Mariner, Red Sock or Yankee. The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative. They will continue to hunt for flippable 1 or 2 year guys - the Scott Kazmirs, Chris Youngs, Nate McLouths and Josh Johnsons of the world. They could dip into catching if they get an offer they can't refuse for Castillo.

 

They seem very happy with their prospects in terms of long term hitting potential.

 

Their concern is #2 - pitching. And that's why I think this offseason is all about moving Samardzija, Castro, Schierholtz, Russell and even Castillo to get 2 or 3 top of the rotation ceiling guys, who are less than 2 years away. And supplement that group with excellent college pitchers, who they might find with their first round picks 2014 and 2015.

 

It's fascinating to watch the build-up!

 

this post will be even better when you make it again a year from now, explaining how we can't bother being good in 2015 because we only won 67 games in 2014

[UMFan83]

The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative.

 

Didn't the Cubs put in a pretty aggressive offer for Darvish 2 years ago? Granted the Rangers blew everyone out of the water, but I don't think Theo was in any way affected by the Daisuke signing.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

All of these were posted in 2012. Names redacted to protect the innocent:

 

2012 is lost for sure but 2013 you have Z and Dempster off the books and you've had time to assess the prospects you've acquired. I see an exciting team in 2013 and a contender in 2014.

 

This past season, the Cubs were old and bad, next season they will be young and bad, with the opportunity of getting better. A much different deal. The old, tired, and unenthused guys will be gone. ... Front Office is building a 90 win team every year, year in and year out. It will happen. Just like it was in Boston. ... Yes, it may take a year or two, but the plan is well under way.

 

My prediction is that by 2013 even if we're not contending just yet, we'll have an exciting young team to watch as opposed to some band aid covered Frankensteins monster.

 

I still think contention in 2014 and dominance in 2015 is the most likely route, and most realistic by far, at this point.

 

I have faith in Theo, but I think he had better get serious before opening day 2013 about having a solid core of players on the field if there's any hope of contending in 2014.

 

If we aren't serious contenders with a solid roster in 2014 and every year thereafter, then Theo is not doing his job. All of this 4-5 year talk is BS.

 

by 2014, the deck will also largely be cleared of contracts, and they will have had 2 drafts to restock the lower levels with their type of talent, so I would still expect a more serious effort (to compete) by then.

 

I don't see there is any reason we can't put a team together by 2014 that can challenge for a WC at least(82-85 win) without jeopardizing any long term goals.

 

i expect the team to be improved next year, and i think we should feel that we have a chance to actually do something going into the 2014 season.

 

I'm bullish on 2014. 100th anv. for Wrigley. They have to get some pitching though.

 

Barring an unexpected breakout or two, I think 2014 is when we can begin to actually expect contention.

 

I see 2014 as a year where the Cubs should be on the fringe or in contention for at least a WC spot.

 

I think 2014 the Cubs become a perenial division contender and possibly sneak into wild card. Their conerstone players in Rizzo and Castro is a great starting point.

 

if we're not pushing for the playoffs in 2014 and beginning a dominant run in 2015, I'll be pissed as hell. Because even I'll admit that's more than enough time to get this thing done in.

 

No one is going to tolerate this thing going beyond next year. And I don't think they'll have to.

 

Next year will be more of the same, but they better show big time improvement by 2014 or the fan base will be zilch.

 

 

I'm not trying to dog anyone out for thinking it. It seemed reasonable at the time, and it was pretty much everyone (I think I only noticed Soul as saying 2015 back then).

[Guest]

The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative.

 

Didn't the Cubs put in a pretty aggressive offer for Darvish 2 years ago? Granted the Rangers blew everyone out of the water, but I don't think Theo was in any way affected by the Daisuke signing.

Yeah, this is the part of the post I didn't agree with. I think it would be just as easy to say the Darvish experience is fresh in his mind. The Cubs missed out on a young rotation cornerstone by not being aggressive enough in the bidding.

[Guest]

There's more than a couple obvious and important differences in the approach to next year's offseason regardless of how this offseason gets handled, but there's also a razor's edge between perpetual selling since most acquired assets aren't around for 4-5 years.

 

If the payroll is going to be that 85 million dollar figure like Arguello so clumsily backed into, then since there's very little hope for 2014, you make 2015 as good as you can while not stripping the team for parts. Add a RH OF(there's a bunch potentially out there) and play your best 3 each day along with Sweeney, Lake, and Schierholtz. Use most of your available funds on SP(Ubaldo and a buy-low/injury guy like Johnson, Kazmir, Anderson, even Porcello might work), and then treat Samardzija like you did Garza the last 24 months. If anything Price's market should help adjust Shark's upward, and getting a premium SP prospect close to MLB has to happen if you deal him. Trade Barney, Villanueva, and/or Schierholtz as needed for payroll relief.

 

If the payroll is going to stay flat to last year at around 100 million, that gives you the flexibility to make 2014 more bearable and put less weight on the upcoming wave of prospects. You can do things like sign mutliple 8 figure FAs(Ubaldo + Salty + Castillo for impact SP or OF?) and maybe get some more permanent solutions than Schierholtz and Sweeney in the OF(maybe even Ellsbury if you believe in the current SP options).

 

In any case, "the Cubs don't care about 2014" might be true to an extent directionally, but that's certainly not the directive you want the FO to go to the offseason with. "Flippable assets" is a relatively pointless goal since there are 1) few holes for stopgaps to fill currently and 2) several flippable commodities already on the roster if they want to go down that road. Make 2014 better and don't make 2015 worse, that's the credo they need.

[HoopsCubs]

"this post will be even better when you make it again a year from now, explaining how we can't bother being good in 2015 because we only won 67 games in 2014"

 

Actually, I won't be making that post a year from now for 2 reasons:

 

(1) I'm not assessing Theo until we get through mid 2015.

(2) I'm not expecting a linear turn-around. What I mean by that is I don't think the Cubs have to win 67, then 77, then 87 and finally 92. I think the 67 to 92 will happen in one season.

[Guest]

The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative.

 

Didn't the Cubs put in a pretty aggressive offer for Darvish 2 years ago? Granted the Rangers blew everyone out of the water, but I don't think Theo was in any way affected by the Daisuke signing.

Yeah, this is the part of the post I didn't agree with. I think it would be just as easy to say the Darvish experience is fresh in his mind. The Cubs missed out on a young rotation cornerstone by not being aggressive enough in the bidding.

 

Also, Daisuke was a good pitcher before his arm blew up, he had over 7 fWAR in 2 seasons.

[davell]

The Daisuke experience is still fresh in Theo's mind, so I think their bid will be conservative.

 

Didn't the Cubs put in a pretty aggressive offer for Darvish 2 years ago? Granted the Rangers blew everyone out of the water, but I don't think Theo was in any way affected by the Daisuke signing.

 

No one knows any of the losing bids, but its been reported by most that the Rangers blew everyone away, by 20-30 mill, in winning the Darvish bid. Does that make a 20 mill bid agressive, if that is the case? Personally, I say no. Because one team killed the others, therefore, their was ONE agressive bid and a bunch of "maybe we get lucky" bids.

 

As far as Tanaka goes, I think we'll see teams lining up better bids, partly because of Yu's success, partly because of the infusion of cash this year, and partly because there just aren't young, potential frontline starters available anymore.

 

In a sad state of affairs, I think the Cubs will put their absolute best bid in, only to be doubled up by at least the Dodgers and Yankees, maybe others as well. I'm not going to waste time hoping for Tanaka basically. In no way, shape, or form do I see us being the HIGH bid and if the system changes, to where he gets to pick which one of the top 3 he wants to negotiate with? I see Chicago as an also-ran. LA, New York, and Seattle are all much better fits for a Japanese player, due either to Asian population, tradition, current team structure, and/or ownership ties.

[davell]

All of these were posted in 2012. Names redacted to protect the innocent:

 

2012 is lost for sure but 2013 you have Z and Dempster off the books and you've had time to assess the prospects you've acquired. I see an exciting team in 2013 and a contender in 2014.

 

This past season, the Cubs were old and bad, next season they will be young and bad, with the opportunity of getting better. A much different deal. The old, tired, and unenthused guys will be gone. ... Front Office is building a 90 win team every year, year in and year out. It will happen. Just like it was in Boston. ... Yes, it may take a year or two, but the plan is well under way.

 

My prediction is that by 2013 even if we're not contending just yet, we'll have an exciting young team to watch as opposed to some band aid covered Frankensteins monster.

 

I still think contention in 2014 and dominance in 2015 is the most likely route, and most realistic by far, at this point.

 

I have faith in Theo, but I think he had better get serious before opening day 2013 about having a solid core of players on the field if there's any hope of contending in 2014.

 

If we aren't serious contenders with a solid roster in 2014 and every year thereafter, then Theo is not doing his job. All of this 4-5 year talk is BS.

 

by 2014, the deck will also largely be cleared of contracts, and they will have had 2 drafts to restock the lower levels with their type of talent, so I would still expect a more serious effort (to compete) by then.

 

I don't see there is any reason we can't put a team together by 2014 that can challenge for a WC at least(82-85 win) without jeopardizing any long term goals.

 

i expect the team to be improved next year, and i think we should feel that we have a chance to actually do something going into the 2014 season.

 

I'm bullish on 2014. 100th anv. for Wrigley. They have to get some pitching though.

 

Barring an unexpected breakout or two, I think 2014 is when we can begin to actually expect contention.

 

I see 2014 as a year where the Cubs should be on the fringe or in contention for at least a WC spot.

 

I think 2014 the Cubs become a perenial division contender and possibly sneak into wild card. Their conerstone players in Rizzo and Castro is a great starting point.

 

if we're not pushing for the playoffs in 2014 and beginning a dominant run in 2015, I'll be pissed as hell. Because even I'll admit that's more than enough time to get this thing done in.

 

No one is going to tolerate this thing going beyond next year. And I don't think they'll have to.

 

Next year will be more of the same, but they better show big time improvement by 2014 or the fan base will be zilch.

 

 

I'm not trying to dog anyone out for thinking it. It seemed reasonable at the time, and it was pretty much everyone (I think I only noticed Soul as saying 2015 back then).

 

I honestly think I may be responsible for well over half of those.