Offseason Rumors

[Hairyducked Idiot]

starlin castro isn't worth taveras, miller or martinez by themselves

 

Rats, guess we'll have to keep him then.

 

Well, we could ask for Taveras, just in case. Maybe throw in Vogelbach or something.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't even know where to start that conversation. probably taveras and martinez, then whoever their best starter is in the low minors (assuming that miller and wacha are not being moved).

 

I think you forgot that there's a pretty decent chance that Starlin Castro is terrible.

 

there is a vastly better chance that he is not.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

His -$50,000,000 $/WAR killed our ratios last year. Can't be the most payroll efficient team with guys like that in there.

[imb]

there is like a 50 percent chance he actually sucks, and unfortunately for us, he has sucked very recently and has a pretty negative narrative going even when he was good (no idea how much that [expletive] plays into what GMs think.) We're not getting a top 5 prospect or a guy they were comparing to pedro martinez for him when they just made the world series with pete [expletive] kozma at ss

[Sammys Boombox]

Considering the Cardinals announcers take every chance imaginable to rip Castro for being lazy I would love to see how TBFIB would react to such a move.

[Guest]

i don't even know where to start that conversation. probably taveras and martinez, then whoever their best starter is in the low minors (assuming that miller and wacha are not being moved).

 

I think you forgot that there's a pretty decent chance that Starlin Castro is terrible.

 

there is a vastly better chance that he is not.

 

Nah. Not even close to vastly better.

[Guest]

So now I have to pretend like I'm taking crazy pills this offseason every time Castro comes up? Where's SSR?

[Guest]

So now I have to pretend like I'm crazy pills this offseason every time Castro comes up? Where's SSR?

 

I bet even he is disillusioned.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So now I have to pretend like I'm taking crazy pills this offseason every time Castro comes up? Where's SSR?

 

I mean, I expect some regression to the mean from Castro, but we can't just pretend last season didn't happen and he's still the super-awesome untouchable asset he was. A year older and 3 full wins worse (down to below replacement) is a *huge* downswing in his projection going forward. He's not going to net super-elite assets.

[Guest]

Rats, guess we'll have to keep him then.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Rats, guess we'll have to keep him then.

 

I'm not certain that trading him for something less than elite prospects isn't the best course of action.

 

I know, I know, "don't sell low," but we don't know that this is low.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't even know where to start that conversation. probably taveras and martinez, then whoever their best starter is in the low minors (assuming that miller and wacha are not being moved).

 

I think you forgot that there's a pretty decent chance that Starlin Castro is terrible.

 

there is a vastly better chance that he is not.

 

Nah. Not even close to vastly better.

 

well, he was very good throughout the minors and good to very good for three major league seasons, but i guess he might be terrible based on one terrible year that is clearly an outlier to everything else he has done in his career, at an age when players are normally still improving.

[Gilby]

I guess I don't find it very likely Castro's struggles against fastballs is due to something that cannot be corrected. He didn't lose all of his bat speed at the age of 23. I would put the odds of him being "terrible" going forward at much less than 50%.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm a little worried that he might be terrible, and a medium amount worried that his first three seasons might have been Fluky BABIP, Fluky BABIP, Mediocre Masked By Variance In Defensive Stats.

 

If the real Castro is .305 BABIP and slightly below average defense, I wouldn't mind gettin' out if there's still someone out there who thinks he might have a 5-win future and is willing to pay for him as such.

[Guest]

i don't even know where to start that conversation. probably taveras and martinez, then whoever their best starter is in the low minors (assuming that miller and wacha are not being moved).

 

I think you forgot that there's a pretty decent chance that Starlin Castro is terrible.

 

there is a vastly better chance that he is not.

 

Nah. Not even close to vastly better.

 

well, he was very good throughout the minors and good to very good for three major league seasons, but i guess he might be terrible based on one terrible year that is clearly an outlier to everything else he has done in his career, at an age when players are normally still improving.

 

except there is nothing to indicate that this year was a product of bad luck or flukish and his successful years were probably a little lucky.

 

there is more than a miniscule chance that he is broken for good and at least not very good.

[SouthSideRyan]

So now I have to pretend like I'm crazy pills this offseason every time Castro comes up? Where's SSR?

 

I bet even he is disillusioned.

 

Have I come down from being disappointed by a less than Jeter career? Sure. 50 percent chance he sucks? Please.

 

Combined with the perception of him around the league, I can't imagine any scenario where it makes sense to trade him.

[Rob]

I'll be keeping Castro in my fantasy league next year for $19.

 

What that says for his real world value is anybody's guess.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/pit/pirates-have-fewer-needs-more-money-to-spend-on-free-agents?ymd=20131028&content_id=63302214&vkey=news_pit

 

a) Pirates rumor connecting them to Stanton

 

b) Pirates can apparently afford to go up to $100m in payroll for next year.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/pit/pirates-have-fewer-needs-more-money-to-spend-on-free-agents?ymd=20131028&content_id=63302214&vkey=news_pit

 

a) Pirates rumor connecting them to Stanton

 

b) Pirates can apparently afford to go up to $100m in payroll for next year.

 

Maybe the argument can adjust to "we're still top 25 in payroll"

[TruffleShuffle]

except there is nothing to indicate that this year was a product of bad luck or flukish and his successful years were probably a little lucky.

 

there is more than a miniscule chance that he is broken for good and at least not very good.

 

there is plenty to indicate that this year was flukish, namely that it is completely out of line with what he had done in the previous 5 years of his professional career.

 

even if he just reverts to being a 2 WAR player, that does not qualify as terrible. so yes, it's considerably more likely that he'll at least be a decent baseball player than a guy who completely lost all of his ability to play the game well at age 23.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sheesh o'pete:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-expecting-to-go-free-agent-shopping-for-2014?ymd=20131031&content_id=63384550&vkey=news_hou

 

Astros are going to go up to $50m or $60m next season, after being at $13m last season. Expect to go after a couple of decent-sized free agent pickups.

 

I don't think I've ever seen an offseason where teams had this much empty payroll space.

[davell]

Sheesh o'pete:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-expecting-to-go-free-agent-shopping-for-2014?ymd=20131031&content_id=63384550&vkey=news_hou

 

Astros are going to go up to $50m or $60m next season, after being at $13m last season. Expect to go after a couple of decent-sized free agent pickups.

 

I don't think I've ever seen an offseason where teams had this much empty payroll space.

Corey Hart and Chris Young are going to get one year contracts for 7-10 mill apiece.

[wolf stansson]

i don't even know where to start that conversation. probably taveras and martinez, then whoever their best starter is in the low minors (assuming that miller and wacha are not being moved).

That's the start of the Tulo conversation and it probably gets turned down by StL. The start of the Castro conversation is probably Wong and Martinez.

They LOVE Taveras.

[TruffleShuffle]

Sheesh o'pete:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-expecting-to-go-free-agent-shopping-for-2014?ymd=20131031&content_id=63384550&vkey=news_hou

 

Astros are going to go up to $50m or $60m next season, after being at $13m last season. Expect to go after a couple of decent-sized free agent pickups.

 

I don't think I've ever seen an offseason where teams had this much empty payroll space.

Corey Hart and Chris Young are going to get one year contracts for 7-10 mill apiece.

 

teams shouldn't be allowed to have a $13m payroll. what a joke.

[HoopsCubs]

Best Castro rumor I heard through my network was at the trade deadline: Mets GM Sandy Alderson was looking to acquire him and was "willing" to trade Rafael Montero if the Cubs would be "willing" to throw in another piece. Theo supposedly asked for Syndergaard, and the discussion quickly ended.

 

No idea if that is something the Cubs will re-visit in the offseason, but given Matt Harvey's injury, the Mets may not be looking to deal any of their top pitching prospects now.