Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-16-13

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Everyone keeps saying "all these guys won't pan out", but I think is a little overblown. The guys we are talking about are pretty high profile guys. Baez, Bryant and Almora were all top 10 draft picks. Soler was a priority FA. To me, if a guy can rake like Baez in AA....that's a step away from the majors. Bryant is like 8 months from doing the same. Almora is obviously further away but is considered to have the best approach of all of them. Soler still has some questions with the injury and still needs to take that next step.

 

But I think all have shown the ability and have the pedigree. But they also don't have some of the issues/struggles that guys like Pie and Patterson had (long swings, refusal to walk). That's not to say they won't ever struggle, but all 4 of these guys will be major leaguers at some point. And I think there is a good chance that at least 2 of them are really solid building blocks at worst.

Well there are comps of guys in a similar position that don't pan out. I mean Brandon Wood is a great comparison for Baez results wise. Of course both have similar tools in some ways and very different in others, but even doing what Baez has done in AA can often be followed by a poor major league career.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's not an unreasonable reference point or anything, but Baez's performance at AA is a notch and a half better than Wood's.

 

The slash line is in the vicinity, though Baez's is better, but Wood did it in an extreme hitters' league with a ton of 2bs and 3bs propping up his SLG.

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Granted its even more of a hitters league, but his Hi A line at least puts the two on even footing result wise in Hi A/Double A. For Kris Bryant we have the Jeff Clement's, Michael Aubrey's, Gordon Beckham's who were all nearly highly as thought of two months after their draft.

 

For Almora and Soler we have a ton of other cases.

 

I mean it's highly improbable that none of them become an elite level player, but it's also highly probable that two of them become fringe-average or worse players.

[Guest]

Those are very bad comparisons for Bryant. Clement might have been a good one, but Bryant's professional start has left him in his wake. The best true cautionary tale left is someone like Tony Sanchez. Not that Bryant is too big to fail or anything like that, but it's also important to remember that he's a pick with a great history of success, especially given his strong start.

 

That said, the only player who should truly be impacting MLB moves for the next calendar year or so is Baez. Talk of trading Castro is pretty silly, Baez continues to kill the ball, he'll be the MLB 3B when he does so. You do have to be cognizant of the development time he needs at SS if he's ever going to play there, but he still would need to prove his bat at the MLB level too. If he starts wreaking havoc on MLB pitching sometime in the next year or so too, then you entertain thoughts about moving/trading Castro. Bryant and Alcantara figure into that decision even less. Not only are they further away, but there's also some more significant questions(is Bryant an infielder? Is Alcantara a MLB regular?) they have to do more to prove than Baez needs to prove his bat.

[Guest]

Those are very bad comparisons for Bryant. Clement might have been a good one, but Bryant's professional start has left him in his wake. The best true cautionary tale left is someone like Tony Sanchez. Not that Bryant is too big to fail or anything like that, but it's also important to remember that he's a pick with a great history of success, especially given his strong start.

 

That said, the only player who should truly be impacting MLB moves for the next calendar year or so is Baez. Talk of trading Castro is pretty silly, Baez continues to kill the ball, he'll be the MLB 3B when he does so. You do have to be cognizant of the development time he needs at SS if he's ever going to play there, but he still would need to prove his bat at the MLB level too. If he starts wreaking havoc on MLB pitching sometime in the next year or so too, then you entertain thoughts about moving/trading Castro. Bryant and Alcantara figure into that decision even less. Not only are they further away, but there's also some more significant questions(is Bryant an infielder? Is Alcantara a MLB regular?) they have to do more to prove than Baez needs to prove his bat.

 

I don't think Sanchez is a fair comparison. He didn't have Bryant's pedigree - BA rated him the 32nd best prospect in their final draft ratings. At least pre-draft, Clement might be a fair comparison (Aubrey and Beckham never were thought of as highly as Bryant has been for the past 8 months).

[TruffleShuffle]

Those are very bad comparisons for Bryant. Clement might have been a good one, but Bryant's professional start has left him in his wake. The best true cautionary tale left is someone like Tony Sanchez. Not that Bryant is too big to fail or anything like that, but it's also important to remember that he's a pick with a great history of success, especially given his strong start.

 

That said, the only player who should truly be impacting MLB moves for the next calendar year or so is Baez. Talk of trading Castro is pretty silly, Baez continues to kill the ball, he'll be the MLB 3B when he does so. You do have to be cognizant of the development time he needs at SS if he's ever going to play there, but he still would need to prove his bat at the MLB level too. If he starts wreaking havoc on MLB pitching sometime in the next year or so too, then you entertain thoughts about moving/trading Castro. Bryant and Alcantara figure into that decision even less. Not only are they further away, but there's also some more significant questions(is Bryant an infielder? Is Alcantara a MLB regular?) they have to do more to prove than Baez needs to prove his bat.

 

I don't think Sanchez is a fair comparison. He didn't have Bryant's pedigree - BA rated him the 32nd best prospect in their final draft ratings. At least pre-draft, Clement might be a fair comparison (Aubrey and Beckham never were thought of as highly as Bryant has been for the past 8 months).

 

i'm trying to think of elite college bats who completely busted. there sure as hell weren't many. antone williamson (brewers, like 20 years ago) was a top 5 pick who flopped.

 

more often, someone with bryant's pedigree who ends up disappointing turns into something like alex gordon, where they are solid regulars who make an all star game or two, but don't end up among the elite players in the game.

[rawaction]

Those are very bad comparisons for Bryant. Clement might have been a good one, but Bryant's professional start has left him in his wake. The best true cautionary tale left is someone like Tony Sanchez. Not that Bryant is too big to fail or anything like that, but it's also important to remember that he's a pick with a great history of success, especially given his strong start.

 

That said, the only player who should truly be impacting MLB moves for the next calendar year or so is Baez. Talk of trading Castro is pretty silly, Baez continues to kill the ball, he'll be the MLB 3B when he does so. You do have to be cognizant of the development time he needs at SS if he's ever going to play there, but he still would need to prove his bat at the MLB level too. If he starts wreaking havoc on MLB pitching sometime in the next year or so too, then you entertain thoughts about moving/trading Castro. Bryant and Alcantara figure into that decision even less. Not only are they further away, but there's also some more significant questions(is Bryant an infielder? Is Alcantara a MLB regular?) they have to do more to prove than Baez needs to prove his bat.

 

I don't think Sanchez is a fair comparison. He didn't have Bryant's pedigree - BA rated him the 32nd best prospect in their final draft ratings. At least pre-draft, Clement might be a fair comparison (Aubrey and Beckham never were thought of as highly as Bryant has been for the past 8 months).

 

i'm trying to think of elite college bats who completely busted. there sure as hell weren't many. antone williamson (brewers, like 20 years ago) was a top 5 pick who flopped.

 

more often, someone with bryant's pedigree who ends up disappointing turns into something like alex gordon, where they are solid regulars who make an all star game or two, but don't end up among the elite players in the game.

 

That was my point, basically in the OP. College hitters who get drafted as high as Bryant, put up early numbers like Bryant has, and are fast movers up the ranks are probably going to be solid ML players. Maybe he won't be an elite star, but I think the odds are in his favor of becoming at least a "piece" of the building blocks for this organization. Baez probably has more question marks, but he's putting up huge numbers at, what I think, is the toughest minor league level and has made huge strides in K/BB to answer a lot of those. And that bat speed doesn't hurt.

[pitchcs]

Granted its even more of a hitters league, but his Hi A line at least puts the two on even footing result wise in Hi A/Double A. For Kris Bryant we have the Jeff Clement's, Michael Aubrey's, Gordon Beckham's who were all nearly highly as thought of two months after their draft.

 

For Almora and Soler we have a ton of other cases.

 

I mean it's highly improbable that none of them become an elite level player, but it's also highly probable that two of them become fringe-average or worse players.

 

 

Gordon Beckham? How is he similar?

[The-Kris-Bryant]

Granted its even more of a hitters league, but his Hi A line at least puts the two on even footing result wise in Hi A/Double A. For Kris Bryant we have the Jeff Clement's, Michael Aubrey's, Gordon Beckham's who were all nearly highly as thought of two months after their draft.

 

For Almora and Soler we have a ton of other cases.

 

I mean it's highly improbable that none of them become an elite level player, but it's also highly probable that two of them become fringe-average or worse players.

 

 

Gordon Beckham? How is he similar?

He was an elite college bat although in a very deep draft college bat wise. Prior to the draft scouts raved about his power potential and hitting ability. He had quite a bit of pedigree too. His last year he smashed 28 homers, hit .411, had more walks than K's and an OPS over 1300.

 

Granted no one expected him to stay at SS but there were a lot of comparisons for him to Evan Longoria. After the draft BA had him pegged at #20 overall in their top 100, which seems like a good spot for Bryant.

 

He didn't pan out. Not saying that they're super similar but there are some parallels. Bryant has a fantastic chance of reaching his potential -- as high a chance as anyone just drafted two months earlier -- but he's far from a lock from becoming even an average player.

[craig]

Just put Castro at 2B if things continue (things other than Castro being complete dog [expletive] at the plate, that is) the way they're going. Castro would prob gain some value defensively at 2B with all of his physical ability anyway.

 

Not all of those guys are going to pan out and the ideal would be if Bryant could handle 3B for at least a good chunk of his career. I'm still most skeptical on Alcantara of all of these guys.

 

If you got some ridiculous scenario where they all panned out, which isn't going to happen, then Bryant can go to the OF.

 

Agree. Keep Baez in the middle. Baez/Castro/Alcantara are the pool to cover two positions. Whether Baez moves to 2B, or Castro, I don't care. I'd prefer Baez to stay at SS, if they believe in him there. Casto at 2b would be easier to replace, if at some point you decided to trade and replace. But if you move Baez to 3B, and need to cover both SS and 2B with only Baez/AA/Barney, I think you're at risk of having disappointing production there, or at least of not necessarily gaining much ground relative to the league at those positions.

 

SS/2B: Castro/Baez/AA/Barney is the pool.

 

3B: Valbuena/Olt/Vitters/Villanueva/Bryant is the pool.

 

That all assumes, of course, that management believes in Baez as a middle-infielder defensively.

[Quakers]

At this point you have to wonder where the front office sees Baez fitting into the major league roster. With Bryant moving through the system and looking legit, I hope they just leave Baez at SS.

 

Well, that certainly begs a question. Castro's value is as a shortstop, he could move to second, but there will likely be a better option there soon, too.

 

Trade him.

 

Unless Castro is worse next season (unlikely), his value is about as low as it is going to get, and the Cubs wouldn't get much in return. I don't see a trade happening, at least not anytime soon.

 

I still see a 3B-Baez, SS-Castro 2B-Alcantara infield alignment as being the likely scenario. I'm also not nearly prepared to dismiss the possibility of Olt being the 3B, perhaps as early as the second half of next year. I really think Bryant's future is in the OF.

 

Maybe, but in listening to Boise games it seems that Bryant has a pretty good glove at third.

[Quakers]

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130817&content_id=57227796&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

[Guest]

At this point you have to wonder where the front office sees Baez fitting into the major league roster. With Bryant moving through the system and looking legit, I hope they just leave Baez at SS.

 

Well, that certainly begs a question. Castro's value is as a shortstop, he could move to second, but there will likely be a better option there soon, too.

 

Trade him.

 

Unless Castro is worse next season (unlikely), his value is about as low as it is going to get, and the Cubs wouldn't get much in return. I don't see a trade happening, at least not anytime soon.

 

I still see a 3B-Baez, SS-Castro 2B-Alcantara infield alignment as being the likely scenario. I'm also not nearly prepared to dismiss the possibility of Olt being the 3B, perhaps as early as the second half of next year. I really think Bryant's future is in the OF.

 

Maybe, but in listening to Boise games it seems that Bryant has a pretty good glove at third.

 

That's good to hear. I hadn't heard much of anything about his defense so far, but I was at least somewhat relieved that we hadn't heard anything bad, either.

[imb]

I just worry that if baez and bryant both make it, if we shift them down the spectrum for [expletive] castro, we'll never shift them back up. Has anyone ever gone from LF to 3B successfully? Or 3B to SS? I know the orioles are talking about doing it with machado, but A.) they haven't yet and B.) he's otherworldly on defense in the first place.

 

I guess I just dream of this surplus of production from the left side of the infield because that would be almost an unfathomable bonus.

[Guest]

I just worry that if baez and bryant both make it, if we shift them down the spectrum for [expletive] castro, we'll never shift them back up. Has anyone ever gone from LF to 3B successfully? Or 3B to SS? I know the orioles are talking about doing it with machado, but A.) they haven't yet and B.) he's otherworldly on defense in the first place.

 

I guess I just dream of this surplus of production from the left side of the infield because that would be almost an unfathomable bonus.

 

I think we'll know more with regard to Castro's future by the time we have to make that call on Bryant.

 

In terms of Baez, I'd rather (for the same reason you mentioned - insane surplus offense) have him at SS, and it's not like Castro is so good there (defensively) that it's not possible he'd be an upgrade with the glove, too.

 

But if we must leave Castro there and have to wait a year or so to see if Castro still sucks, and Baez plays 2B or 3B for that half season, I don't think that hurts his chances of going back to SS later all that much.

[Guest]

Obligatory perspective: Castro hit .376/.421/.569/.990 at AA at age 20

 

I think the timing is such that there isn't a huge concern here. If Castro isn't making strides in the field or at the plate next year, AND Baez hits MLB and looks like an impact SS, the only "lost" time will be the remainder of 2014. Next offseason they can trade Castro, move him to 2B, whatever. Same goes even more for the following year when Bryant will hopefully be cracking MLB.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Starlin is [expletive] everything up, damnit.

[Quakers]

My two cents worth is this is what good teams are supposed to have ... a logjam of talent coming up and the decision of what to keep and what to trade. We have had such a crappy minor league pipeline for so long that we do not know how to handle this:)

[Guest]

I just worry that if baez and bryant both make it, if we shift them down the spectrum for [expletive] castro, we'll never shift them back up. Has anyone ever gone from LF to 3B successfully?.

Chipper.

[Fro]

Just put Castro at 2B if things continue (things other than Castro being complete dog [expletive] at the plate, that is) the way they're going. Castro would prob gain some value defensively at 2B with all of his physical ability anyway.

 

Not all of those guys are going to pan out and the ideal would be if Bryant could handle 3B for at least a good chunk of his career. I'm still most skeptical on Alcantara of all of these guys.

 

If you got some ridiculous scenario where they all panned out, which isn't going to happen, then Bryant can go to the OF.

 

Agree. Keep Baez in the middle. Baez/Castro/Alcantara are the pool to cover two positions. Whether Baez moves to 2B, or Castro, I don't care. I'd prefer Baez to stay at SS, if they believe in him there. Casto at 2b would be easier to replace, if at some point you decided to trade and replace. But if you move Baez to 3B, and need to cover both SS and 2B with only Baez/AA/Barney, I think you're at risk of having disappointing production there, or at least of not necessarily gaining much ground relative to the league at those positions.

 

SS/2B: Castro/Baez/AA/Barney is the pool.

 

3B: Valbuena/Olt/Vitters/Villanueva/Bryant is the pool.

 

That all assumes, of course, that management believes in Baez as a middle-infielder defensively.

 

Agreed completely on that. You don't move Baez out of the middle infield unless he shows that he can't handle either 2B or SS in the majors. Once that plays out then we can start filling in the rest of the puzzle from there and know who's trade bait in a deal to upgrade the rest of the team.

[illiniguy]

I just worry that if baez and bryant both make it, if we shift them down the spectrum for [expletive] castro, we'll never shift them back up. Has anyone ever gone from LF to 3B successfully?.

Chipper.

Miggy, after a few years at first.

[imb]

I just worry that if baez and bryant both make it, if we shift them down the spectrum for [expletive] castro, we'll never shift them back up. Has anyone ever gone from LF to 3B successfully?.

Chipper.

Miggy, after a few years at first.

 

successfully

[illiniguy]

I just worry that if baez and bryant both make it, if we shift them down the spectrum for [expletive] castro, we'll never shift them back up. Has anyone ever gone from LF to 3B successfully?.

Chipper.

Miggy, after a few years at first.

 

successfully

Lol, if the bat plays like Miggy I don't care where Javy plays.

[TruffleShuffle]

yes, he'll probably be successful wherever he plays, if he hits as well as the best hitter in baseball.

[illiniguy]

yes, he'll probably be successful wherever he plays, if he hits as well as the best hitter in baseball.

Point being if he hits, his bat will be valuable enough to lose a bit of defense.