2014 Cubs Payroll under $75 mil?

[UMFan83]

I'm assuming this is just Sullivan trolling us a bit, but its at least worth discussion. Do we really expect the Cubs payroll to be under $75 million next year?

 

Assuming David DeJesus' $6.5 million option gets picked up, as expected, 20 players from the current roster or disabled list are likely to return at an estimated cost of around $58 million. The highest-paid player will be Edwin Jackson at $11 million, followed by DeJesus.

 

The Cubs are unlikely to dip into the free agent waters for any significant upgrades this winter.

 

The attendance drop of around 4,250 fans per home game means the Cubs will slash payroll, despite added revenue from a new national TV deal, new signage and a jumbo-sized video board at Wrigley Field.

 

The 2014 payroll currently projects to less than $75 million, the lowest it has been since 2002.

 

I'm assuming that $75 million figure doesn't include paying Soriano though, so it would be a little higher. $75 million seems way too low for a team that fans are expecting to take the step to respectability next year.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0801-2014-cubs-chicago-20130801,0,5504726.story

[Cubswin11]

Signing Cano would help get the payroll to near where a team in our market should be at, along with Ellsbury.

[Careless]

The attendance drop of around 4,250 fans per home game means the Cubs will slash payroll, despite added revenue from a new national TV deal, new signage and a jumbo-sized video board at Wrigley Field.

Of course a maybe a 5% drop in revenue from the loss of ticket and in-stadium sales with simultaneous revenue increases from other sources requires an enormous drop in payroll. That's accounting.

[Cubswin11]

The attendance drop of around 4,250 fans per home game means the Cubs will slash payroll, despite added revenue from a new national TV deal, new signage and a jumbo-sized video board at Wrigley Field.

Of course a maybe a 5% drop in revenue from the loss of ticket and in-stadium sales with simultaneous revenue increases from other sources requires an enormous drop in payroll. That's accounting.

Just write it off, it's what all the big companies do

[KingCubsFan]

Signing Cano would help get the payroll to near where a team in our market should be at, along with Ellsbury.

Or Garza and Choo.

[Guest]

Signing Cano would help get the payroll to near where a team in our market should be at, along with Ellsbury.

Or Garza and Choo.

 

I'll take Cubswin's guys.

[Guest]

Yeah I'm hoping for one of Cano/Ellsbury/Shoo plus a big trade and Garza if he's willing to take a not massive contract (he won't be). That'll put us up at the payroll figure we should be at and in competition for a playoff spot.

[KingCubsFan]

Signing Cano would help get the payroll to near where a team in our market should be at, along with Ellsbury.

Or Garza and Choo.

 

I'll take Cubswin's guys.

I'd rather just have Cano. But I don't think it's realistic he leaves the Yankees.

[davell]

The FA class is pitiful. We may not even have a protected 1st rounder and its a strong draft. With who we kept yesterday, its easy to see us under 100 mill heading into 2014.

[Guest]

Signing Cano would help get the payroll to near where a team in our market should be at, along with Ellsbury.

Or Garza and Choo.

 

I'll take Cubswin's guys.

I'd rather just have Cano. But I don't think it's realistic he leaves the Yankees.

 

I didn't say there was any chance in hell of it happening. But I'd take Cano and Ellsbury (either of them) over either of the other two.

[davell]

They aren't through building the farm up(like it or not). I'm surprised to see Cano even getting mentions honestly. One, he's older but will get 200 mill or so. And two, do you really think Jay-Z is going to put him in Chicago? He's staying put or heading to LA.

[Guest]

They aren't through building the farm up(like it or not). I'm surprised to see Cano even getting mentions honestly. One, he's older but will get 200 mill or so. And two, do you really think Jay-Z is going to put him in Chicago? He's staying put or heading to LA.

 

How does adding good players preclude them from "building the farm up?"

 

I'm pretty sure the last two posts referencing Cano indicate a feeling that there is little to no chance of it happening.

 

And I'm pretty sure it would have nothing to do with Jay Z not wanting him in Chicago.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd say something, but I'm too busy shutting the [expletive] up.

[Guest]

I'd say something, but I'm too busy shutting the [expletive] up.

 

I think the local media is operating on shitty assumptions. They probably wouldn't have seen them signing Anibal last year, either.

[davell]

They aren't through building the farm up(like it or not). I'm surprised to see Cano even getting mentions honestly. One, he's older but will get 200 mill or so. And two, do you really think Jay-Z is going to put him in Chicago? He's staying put or heading to LA.

 

How does adding good players preclude them from "building the farm up?"

 

I'm pretty sure the last two posts referencing Cano indicate a feeling that there is little to no chance of it happening.

 

And I'm pretty sure it would have nothing to do with Jay Z not wanting him in Chicago.

I'm being realistic. Do you REALLY think this FO is going to spend big on ANY FA this year? Especially if it costs them their 1st? I don't. I'm not even saying I agree or disagree. I just don't see it happening. Is Sullivan trolling? Sure. But there's a lot of truth in it as well.

[jersey cubs fan]

They aren't through building the farm up(like it or not).

 

What in the world does that even mean? They will never be done building the farm up, it is a continuous process.

[Guest]

I'm being realistic. Do you REALLY think this FO is going to spend big on ANY FA this year? Especially if it costs them their 1st? I don't. I'm not even saying I agree or disagree. I just don't see it happening. Is Sullivan trolling? Sure. But there's a lot of truth in it as well.

 

On ANY? Yes, I REALLY think so. They tried to (and to some extent, did) last year. This year they'd have more money off the books and are in a better position to get better. What the hell kind of question is that?

[mul21]

I'm being realistic. Do you REALLY think this FO is going to spend big on ANY FA this year? Especially if it costs them their 1st? I don't. I'm not even saying I agree or disagree. I just don't see it happening. Is Sullivan trolling? Sure. But there's a lot of truth in it as well.

 

Yes, I do. And I'm sure they'll cross the lost draft pick bridge when it becomes an issue. As it sits right now, they have the 9th worst record in the league and it would currently be protected. Did anybody not sign a top 10 pick this year?

Edited August 1, 2013 by mul21

[Guest]

Someone want to do the math on what a 75 million dollar roster looks like? From the back of the envelope it appears to be not only not spending on a big FA, but not really spending anything at all.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They spent a ton of money on free agents last offseason. They aren't going to just shut down this year with more payroll space cleared and a better base of players in place.

 

What he's saying is literally true but meaningless. If the Cubs were to field a team for 2014 with what they already have in place, it'd cost about $75m after arbitration raises. But they aren't going to do that.

 

Even without getting in on the pick-tied free agents at the top of the market (and we managed to give Edwin Jackson 4/$52 last offseason without giving out a pick), we'll raid the mid-level, short-term shelf for an outfielder, a starting pitcher, a backup catcher, and at least one reliever. That'd take us up to $90m.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm being realistic. Do you REALLY think this FO is going to spend big on ANY FA this year? Especially if it costs them their 1st? I don't. I'm not even saying I agree or disagree. I just don't see it happening. Is Sullivan trolling? Sure. But there's a lot of truth in it as well.

 

 

Absolutely. They probably won't go after multiple big tickets, but I fully expect them to pursue (and land) at least one high profile player this coming offseason.

 

And they're obviously not "done" building up the farm, but I think it's to the point where it won't be done at such expense to the big league club. I think we're seeing that some mind is being paid to being better next year in the reticence to deal guys like Schierholtz and Russell. I think those are deals that get made last year just to infuse the farm system more.

 

The Cubs aren't going to spike their payroll, but I sure as hell don't see it being sub-75MM, either.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Someone want to do the math on what a 75 million dollar roster looks like? From the back of the envelope it appears to be not only not spending on a big FA, but not really spending anything at all.

 

Yeah. If you filled out the roster with just what you have now and maybe a league-minimum FA or two, that should get you to around $75m. It'd be something like:

 

Lake/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Bogusevic, Borbon)

Valbuena/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (Watkins, Vitters)

Castillo (minimum FA backup catcher)

 

Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/Arrieta/Hendricks

 

Strop/Russell/Villanueva/Cabrera/Grimm/Parker/Bowden

 

That should come in at right around $75m, maybe a tiny bit less, and eyeballing I'd say it wins like 72-74 games. It's bad, but not completely devoid of talent.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Keep in mind that the Cubs' amateur portion of the budget should be significantly down next year. With a worse draft pick and apparently IFA restrictions, it could be down around $10m.

 

There's a lot of money there to be spent this offseason if they want to.

[davell]

They aren't through building the farm up(like it or not).

 

What in the world does that even mean? They will never be done building the farm up, it is a continuous process.

What I mean by that is the only FA that'll be tied to compensation(off the top of my head) are going to be Cano(who I can't see coming here), Ellsbury, and Choo. Ellsbury and Choo are certainly good-but I don't see this FO signing either if we have an unprotected 1st rounder. I think the FO will try and their TOR SP with that pick, in all likelihood, with the draft being very deep in pitching. OTOH, I'm not saying we won't try and trade for a big ticket player. I just don't see us punting the 1st rounder, if its unprotected, which is a fairly solid possibility, at this point.

[Guest]

They aren't through building the farm up(like it or not).

 

What in the world does that even mean? They will never be done building the farm up, it is a continuous process.

What I mean by that is the only FA that'll be tied to compensation(off the top of my head) are going to be Cano(who I can't see coming here), Ellsbury, and Choo. Ellsbury and Choo are certainly good-but I don't see this FO signing either if we have an unprotected 1st rounder. I think the FO will try and their TOR SP with that pick, in all likelihood, with the draft being very deep in pitching. OTOH, I'm not saying we won't try and trade for a big ticket player. I just don't see us punting the 1st rounder, if its unprotected, which is a fairly solid possibility, at this point.

 

If the pick is out of the top 10, I wouldn't be THAT worried about losing it anyway. Not to sign a very good player, at least.

 

Hell, there's a decent chance that their volume approach to pitching of the past two years (and presumably goign forward) will yield a TOR type or two.

 

Not to mention that we already have our TOR starter.