Rizzo

[neely crenshaw]

Did some quick research only went back to 2011, but maybe later I'll continue.

We know what the stats were for 2013

2011- world series champ St. Louis-3 guys above .900 Berkman, Holiday,Beltran. Molina at .814

runner up Texas, 6 starters above .821- Napoli 1.041, Hamilton .882, Beltre .892

playoff teams- MIL 2 guys above .981, Philly- 3 guys above .835, Pence at .871

Ariz- 3 guys above .808- Upton .898

NYY- 3 guys above .835 -Granderson .916

Det- Cabrera 1.073..2 others above .845

2012

World series Champ San Fran-Posey .957, melky .906(for awhile) scutaro .857 and 3 others just under .800

runner up Det- Cabrera .999 Fielder .941

playoff teams- Ny- Cano .929, 3 others above .800 plus Jeter at .791

Oak, 3 above .861 Cespedes,Moss, Gomes

Balt- 3 above .827, Jones tops at .837

Tex-Hamilton .930 Beltre .921. 2 other above .800

Wash- 5 starters above .815. La Roche tops at .853

Cin- 4 starters above .829 Votto at 1.014

 

So every playoff team for the last 3 seasons has had "that guy" plus more.

The world series teams all had guys well over .900 but we are set to contend with a .820 OPS in our number 3 hitter.

 

So in real terms tell me how that works?

Another sad thing is you are arguing about a hypothetical situation because we don't even now if he can.will put up those kind of stats.

[abuck1220]

so you've spent like seven hours of your life trying to convince everyone that you need good players to be a good team? groundbreaking stuff.

[neely crenshaw]

Welcome to the conversation!

it was more like 20 minutes but OK

 

Evidently that's news(needing good players) to many on this thread

[neely crenshaw]

Rizzo could still end up being an .850+ OPS guy, I mean [expletive], even TT said he'd be there already with a BABIP lower than he had last year.

 

The guy is only 24, playing his first full year and has had terrible BABIP luck. Let's give him a little more time before we jump to any final conclusions (most of you obviously haven't).

 

Hell, Rizzo ending up as a close to .900 OPS guy isn't completely out of the question yet. That would easily put him as one of the top 1B in baseball, especially if he can be above average defensively, which seems to be a pretty realistic expectation.

 

If you read earlier I clearly said he was young and could improve. I simply said how quickly and how much directly correlates to how quickly we rebuild. Evidently that's blasphemy.

I also said I'm not sure we have seen anything that indicates he'll ever be a .900 or better guy(made the mistake of saying 1.000) I would love for him to be an .850 guy, and he may. I just don't see how it will be next year, and without that I don't see how we have the offense to compete. As my stat work shows, a team with 1 guy above .800 does not contend.

[Backtobanks]

Look back at the my post that shows what the play off teams have.

Every team has one, and most have several.

 

I take this as saying we can compete with Rizzo as our big bat if he brings his OPS up to .820. I can't see where that plays out in reality. Of course you can say anything can happen, and I'm sure there is some team that won with that type of offense. I am trying to judge what is likely to happen in real terms. It sure seems that except for that 1 in 100 season, the stats say you need either a big time guy (.900 or above), or a couple of guys above .800 and usually at least 1 way above.

21 players total have an OPS over .850. The last place Blue Jays have 3 of them, and the last place Rockies have another two. The Rays and Indians have zero, and the only playoff teams that have more than one are the Cardinals (Carpenter, Holliday) and Reds (Votto, Choo). Four playoff teams have a player with a .900 OPS or better (Cabrera, Ortiz, Votto, McCutchen).

 

The offensive environment is severely changed from what it was 3-5 years ago, and will remain that way for the foreseeable future. Your opinions are so far from the realm of reality, it's pointless to even address them, but hopefully this minor look gives you a vague idea how absurd you are.

 

Discussing how Rizzo's OPS of .820 would fit into a winning record is difficult because you would have to factor in things like the strength of the piching staff and which division you're playing in. Right now the Cubs don't have the pitching staff to win with great pitching/weak offense and the NL Central is one of the strongest divisions in baseball.

[Warpticon]

Alright. 43 yards, Wind straight at my back. tie game. This should be easy. five steps back, two steps left. I'm loose and ready after warming up on the sidelines. Now I just have to wait for the sna--hey, why are they over there now? What's going on?

[SABR Gamer]

I am simply saying that if you think we can be a contender with our current lineup and Rizzo jumping up70- 80 points in OPS, your looney.

 

Yeah, that's definitely what everyone here has been saying. You nailed it.

 

Sorry for thinking we all are wanting to succeed. He is dead on, If Rizzo jumps to an .820 OPS he can certainly be our middle of the order bat. Of course we still be losing 90 games, but that's obviously fine.

 

Now if your plan says we get Stanton to hit behind him, then I'll agree. Until something is added, you can't simply say he's fine at that rate, because the stats say differently.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

[Sammy Sofa]

neely, do you ever get the feeling that you're too smart for this place?

 

If so, run with that.

[TruffleShuffle]

Did some quick research only went back to 2011, but maybe later I'll continue.

We know what the stats were for 2013

2011- world series champ St. Louis-3 guys above .900 Berkman, Holiday,Beltran. Molina at .814

runner up Texas, 6 starters above .821- Napoli 1.041, Hamilton .882, Beltre .892

playoff teams- MIL 2 guys above .981, Philly- 3 guys above .835, Pence at .871

Ariz- 3 guys above .808- Upton .898

NYY- 3 guys above .835 -Granderson .916

Det- Cabrera 1.073..2 others above .845

2012

World series Champ San Fran-Posey .957, melky .906(for awhile) scutaro .857 and 3 others just under .800

runner up Det- Cabrera .999 Fielder .941

playoff teams- Ny- Cano .929, 3 others above .800 plus Jeter at .791

Oak, 3 above .861 Cespedes,Moss, Gomes

Balt- 3 above .827, Jones tops at .837

Tex-Hamilton .930 Beltre .921. 2 other above .800

Wash- 5 starters above .815. La Roche tops at .853

Cin- 4 starters above .829 Votto at 1.014

 

So every playoff team for the last 3 seasons has had "that guy" plus more.

The world series teams all had guys well over .900 but we are set to contend with a .820 OPS in our number 3 hitter.

 

So in real terms tell me how that works?

Another sad thing is you are arguing about a hypothetical situation because we don't even now if he can.will put up those kind of stats.

 

calling adam jones, adam laroche and hunter pence "that guy" is really a stretch.

[Boris]

http://chicagomag.com/images/2013/0513/C201305-Anthony-Rizzo.jpg

 

That Guy

[SouthSideRyan]

Hunter Pence's only regret is that he has bonitis.

[Guest]

Hunter Pence's only regret is that he has bonitis.

 

Shut it down, we're not beating this.

[XZero771679666304]

Hunter Pence's only regret is that he has bonitis.

 

Yes, LMFAO

[neely crenshaw]

It really doesn't matter what YOU think of certain players, what matters is they put up those numbers and their teams won.

 

Never, ever called any of them "that guy". I said you either have to have "that guy" or a bunch of guys above .800.

 

I don't mean this as an indictment of Rizzo. I am simply being honest about the team we have, and probably will put out next year.

Bottom line is Rizzo has not been good enough this year, and simply jumping up to .820 next won't help this team win.

You can say you are ok with his play, but honestly this is nothing like you expected out of him for this season. It's certainly not what anyone had hoped for.

 

 

 

I

[SABR Gamer]

Did some quick research only went back to 2011, but maybe later I'll continue.

We know what the stats were for 2013

2011- world series champ St. Louis-3 guys above .900 Berkman, Holiday,Beltran. Molina at .814

runner up Texas, 6 starters above .821- Napoli 1.041, Hamilton .882, Beltre .892

playoff teams- MIL 2 guys above .981, Philly- 3 guys above .835, Pence at .871

Ariz- 3 guys above .808- Upton .898

NYY- 3 guys above .835 -Granderson .916

Det- Cabrera 1.073..2 others above .845

2012

World series Champ San Fran-Posey .957, melky .906(for awhile) scutaro .857 and 3 others just under .800

runner up Det- Cabrera .999 Fielder .941

playoff teams- Ny- Cano .929, 3 others above .800 plus Jeter at .791

Oak, 3 above .861 Cespedes,Moss, Gomes

Balt- 3 above .827, Jones tops at .837

Tex-Hamilton .930 Beltre .921. 2 other above .800

Wash- 5 starters above .815. La Roche tops at .853

Cin- 4 starters above .829 Votto at 1.014

 

So every playoff team for the last 3 seasons has had "that guy" plus more.

The world series teams all had guys well over .900 but we are set to contend with a .820 OPS in our number 3 hitter.

 

So in real terms tell me how that works?

Another sad thing is you are arguing about a hypothetical situation because we don't even now if he can.will put up those kind of stats.

 

calling adam jones, adam laroche and hunter pence "that guy" is really a stretch.

 

You're being an enabler.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

You all are.

[Careless]

ITT: we learned that simply being a much better player will not make the team win more games

[neely crenshaw]

So Mr. Careless, instead being an ass. Tell me do you think we contend if Rizzo posts an .820 next year.

 

I have put out a very simple argument, if we would like to contend next year we need Rizzo (or someone else) to be much,much better and although .820 or so would be a nice but that alone won't get it done.

 

I just had to answer such powerful arguments as:

Do you know how few players posted .850?

Rizzo is an all star if he has an .820ops

Allen Craig was an all star at .830ops this year

Hunter pence, Adam LaRoche and Adam Jones aren't that guy

 

The problem is that you can't argue the point so you simply try to argue with me.

 

It's really an irrefutable point, contending teams don't have middle of the order hitters with that type of performance. Admit it or not, we all expected more from Rizzo and to be a good team we need better than average, or even good. We need him to be very good to great, at least until he gets some help.

 

I still have not read one poster say this is the type of year they had in mind for Rizzo...

[Guest]

Okay, one last try with bullet points:

 

- No one thinks this year was great or "part of the plan" for Rizzo.

 

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLB

 

- Regardless of what Rizzo does, the Cubs need to add talent to be contenders

 

- If Rizzo is a 4 win player next year the Cubs can be contenders with the right improvements elsewhere

 

- It's obviously easier for the Cubs to be contenders if Rizzo reaches his potential and is a 5-6 win player next year

 

Hopefully that covers it. You're bouncing from bad argument(lol Rizzo isn't a generational talent) to bad argument(Rizzo isn't all that great if he OPS's .820) to bad argument(the Cubs can't be contenders if Rizzo doesn't reach his ceiling) to really obvious point(the Cubs need to add players to be contenders).

[Scotchandice]

http://cdn.uproxx.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/tumblr_m54o61PrQE1r2gow4o1_400.gif

[neely crenshaw]

Okay, one last try with bullet points:

 

- No one thinks this year was great or "part of the plan" for Rizzo. Then why the argument when I say he needs to be better?

 

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLBPuts him roughly 12-14th, if no other young guys improve

 

- Regardless of what Rizzo does, the Cubs need to add talent to be contenders-that's my point entirely, having an improved Rizzo is not enough

 

- If Rizzo is a 4 win player next year the Cubs can be contenders with the right improvements elsewhereyes, but until we see those moves how can we judge if Rizzo is the middle of the order bat

 

- It's obviously easier for the Cubs to be contenders if Rizzo reaches his potential and is a 5-6 win player next yearExactly my statement, again why is this being argued?

 

Hopefully that covers it. You're bouncing from bad argument(lol Rizzo isn't a generational talent) to bad argument(Rizzo isn't all that great if he OPS's .820) to bad argument(the Cubs can't be contenders if Rizzo doesn't reach his ceiling) to really obvious point(the Cubs need to add players to be contenders).

I don't know how we argue generational(what is generational, and what is his generation) but he sure hasn't been so far, and with the amount of young talent out there, it will be tough.

A number 3 hitting first baseman posting an .820 OPS is good but not great. Leon Durham had a .831 career OPS, he is not considered great. I guess those are bad arguments because I'm right?

I clearly never said the cubs couldn't be contenders, I, once again, simply said that how quickly and how much he improves directly correlates to how quickly the cubs rebound.

 

As for bouncing around perhaps that is from having to defend my stance against posters who would rather talk mis-spelling shin-soo choo instead of the point of the argument.

[Guest]

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLBPuts him roughly 12-14th, if no other young guys improve

 

There are 11-13 4 win 1B in baseball? What an age we live in.

[treebird]

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLBPuts him roughly 12-14th, if no other young guys improve

 

There are 11-13 4 win 1B in baseball? What an age we live in.

 

in fairness, they really need to adjust replacement level so it stops assuming that a replacement first baseman would be a ghost and the ball would just float through him when the shortstop threw it over

[Sammy Sofa]

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLBPuts him roughly 12-14th, if no other young guys improve

 

There are 11-13 4 win 1B in baseball? What an age we live in.

 

in fairness, they really need to adjust replacement level so it stops assuming that a replacement first baseman would be a ghost and the ball would just float through him when the shortstop threw it over

 

Congratulations: you just created Angels in the Outfield 2: Angels in the Infield, you monster.

[neely crenshaw]

- If Rizzo OPS's .820 next year he'll be a 4 win player and undoubtedly one of the Top 10 1B in MLBPuts him roughly 12-14th, if no other young guys improve

 

There are 11-13 4 win 1B in baseball? What an age we live in.

 

in fairness, they really need to adjust replacement level so it stops assuming that a replacement first baseman would be a ghost and the ball would just float through him when the shortstop threw it over

No, there are 11-14 .820 ops guys at 1b plus many others that are young and ahead of Rizzo in OPS.

We are talking about him being a middle of the order bat. I am not disputing his overall value but on this current team he is the main bat.

Was he great on D this year? yep

Did we come close to contending?nope