Random Cubs Musings

[Guest]

gabe kapler ‏@gabekapler 5m

Samardzija and Hammel identical pitcher WAR (2.0), Hammel walking fewer striking out more. Arguably best 1-2 punch in NL thus far. #Cubs

Why does he hate Arrieta so much?

[rawaction]

I really wonder what their plans are for Alcantara, both in position and in terms of when he might be ready. There's already been a tiny indication that they won't be keeping him down to game his service time, so if they see him as next year's Bonifacio, then you can much more easily absorb the blow of keeping Bryant down for a month by putting him at 2B and Valbuena at 3B. The Sweeney/Ruggiano platoon can backfill the OF spot(assuming Lake and an external OF are the other two) and there aren't any Barney/Baker-esque holes. The return for Hammel could play a role there as well.

 

Yeah, if Alcantara can come up after the deadline and establish himself at 2B/CF, then it would help out for next year a lot. The key is adding a FA outfielder. Get a solid guy, even for the short term like Cruz or Markakis, and the Cubs have very few black holes in the lineup for the near future.

 

Start the year with:

 

2B- Alcantara

3B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

SS- Castro

RF- Cruz/Markakis

LF- Lake

CF- Sweeney/Ruggiano

C- Castillo

 

By June, you could have:

 

CF- Alcantara

2B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

LF- Bryant

RF- Markakis/Cruz

SS- Castro

3B- Baez (still think he ends up at 3B rather than 2B)

C- Castillo

 

The latter is a lineup you don't dread anyone coming up, except when they are in a cold streak which Castro, Alcantara, Baez, and Castillo have all been prone to.

[Backtobanks]

I really wonder what their plans are for Alcantara, both in position and in terms of when he might be ready. There's already been a tiny indication that they won't be keeping him down to game his service time, so if they see him as next year's Bonifacio, then you can much more easily absorb the blow of keeping Bryant down for a month by putting him at 2B and Valbuena at 3B. The Sweeney/Ruggiano platoon can backfill the OF spot(assuming Lake and an external OF are the other two) and there aren't any Barney/Baker-esque holes. The return for Hammel could play a role there as well.

 

Yeah, if Alcantara can come up after the deadline and establish himself at 2B/CF, then it would help out for next year a lot. The key is adding a FA outfielder. Get a solid guy, even for the short term like Cruz or Markakis, and the Cubs have very few black holes in the lineup for the near future.

 

Start the year with:

 

2B- Alcantara

3B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

SS- Castro

RF- Cruz/Markakis

LF- Lake

CF- Sweeney/Ruggiano

C- Castillo

 

By June, you could have:

 

CF- Alcantara

2B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

LF- Bryant

RF- Markakis/Cruz

SS- Castro

3B- Baez (still think he ends up at 3B rather than 2B)

C- Castillo

 

The latter is a lineup you don't dread anyone coming up, except when they are in a cold streak which Castro, Alcantara, Baez, and Castillo have all been prone to.

 

The lineup looks good, now to find some starters to help us compete.

[jersey cubs fan]

The lineup looks good, now to find some starters to help us compete.

 

The pitching staff has been competitive.

[Cubswin11]

The lineup looks good, now to find some starters to help us compete.

 

The pitching staff has been competitive.

Yeah, Samardzija (2.2) and Hammel (2.0) are both top 20 in fWAR for SP, Wood (1.1) is in the top 50, Arrieta (1.3) would be top 50 too if he qualified and Jackson, for as bad as he's been, is 56 overall at .9. Which isn't bad for your 5th worst pitcher.

[sneakypower]

last 2 weeks

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/1zg4zle.jpg

[Backtobanks]

The lineup looks good, now to find some starters to help us compete.

 

The pitching staff has been competitive.

 

The pitching staff has been fine, but you're talking about the 2015 lineup and I'm assuming Hammel and Samardzija will be traded.

[Guest]

Presumably, Hammel and Samardzija would be traded for other baseball players. Maybe even baseball players that pitch.

[d_money]

I really wonder what their plans are for Alcantara, both in position and in terms of when he might be ready. There's already been a tiny indication that they won't be keeping him down to game his service time, so if they see him as next year's Bonifacio, then you can much more easily absorb the blow of keeping Bryant down for a month by putting him at 2B and Valbuena at 3B. The Sweeney/Ruggiano platoon can backfill the OF spot(assuming Lake and an external OF are the other two) and there aren't any Barney/Baker-esque holes. The return for Hammel could play a role there as well.

 

Yeah, if Alcantara can come up after the deadline and establish himself at 2B/CF, then it would help out for next year a lot. The key is adding a FA outfielder. Get a solid guy, even for the short term like Cruz or Markakis, and the Cubs have very few black holes in the lineup for the near future.

 

Start the year with:

 

2B- Alcantara

3B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

SS- Castro

RF- Cruz/Markakis

LF- Lake

CF- Sweeney/Ruggiano

C- Castillo

 

By June, you could have:

 

CF- Alcantara

2B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

LF- Bryant

RF- Markakis/Cruz

SS- Castro

3B- Baez (still think he ends up at 3B rather than 2B)

C- Castillo

 

The latter is a lineup you don't dread anyone coming up, except when they are in a cold streak which Castro, Alcantara, Baez, and Castillo have all been prone to.

What to do with Lake? Does some GM overvalue him? Could he bring back a nice package due to his contract controllability?

[d_money]

Glad to hear about Bryant - looking forward to seeing home tear up AAA

[Andy]

I really wonder what their plans are for Alcantara, both in position and in terms of when he might be ready. There's already been a tiny indication that they won't be keeping him down to game his service time, so if they see him as next year's Bonifacio, then you can much more easily absorb the blow of keeping Bryant down for a month by putting him at 2B and Valbuena at 3B. The Sweeney/Ruggiano platoon can backfill the OF spot(assuming Lake and an external OF are the other two) and there aren't any Barney/Baker-esque holes. The return for Hammel could play a role there as well.

 

Yeah, if Alcantara can come up after the deadline and establish himself at 2B/CF, then it would help out for next year a lot. The key is adding a FA outfielder. Get a solid guy, even for the short term like Cruz or Markakis, and the Cubs have very few black holes in the lineup for the near future.

 

Start the year with:

 

2B- Alcantara

3B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

SS- Castro

RF- Cruz/Markakis

LF- Lake

CF- Sweeney/Ruggiano

C- Castillo

 

By June, you could have:

 

CF- Alcantara

2B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

LF- Bryant

RF- Markakis/Cruz

SS- Castro

3B- Baez (still think he ends up at 3B rather than 2B)

C- Castillo

 

The latter is a lineup you don't dread anyone coming up, except when they are in a cold streak which Castro, Alcantara, Baez, and Castillo have all been prone to.

What to do with Lake? Does some GM overvalue him? Could he bring back a nice package due to his contract controllability?

The short answers to these questions are 'hopefully nothing important', 'no way in hell', and 'absolutely no way in hell'.

[d_money]

I really wonder what their plans are for Alcantara, both in position and in terms of when he might be ready. There's already been a tiny indication that they won't be keeping him down to game his service time, so if they see him as next year's Bonifacio, then you can much more easily absorb the blow of keeping Bryant down for a month by putting him at 2B and Valbuena at 3B. The Sweeney/Ruggiano platoon can backfill the OF spot(assuming Lake and an external OF are the other two) and there aren't any Barney/Baker-esque holes. The return for Hammel could play a role there as well.

 

Yeah, if Alcantara can come up after the deadline and establish himself at 2B/CF, then it would help out for next year a lot. The key is adding a FA outfielder. Get a solid guy, even for the short term like Cruz or Markakis, and the Cubs have very few black holes in the lineup for the near future.

 

Start the year with:

 

2B- Alcantara

3B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

SS- Castro

RF- Cruz/Markakis

LF- Lake

CF- Sweeney/Ruggiano

C- Castillo

 

By June, you could have:

 

CF- Alcantara

2B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

LF- Bryant

RF- Markakis/Cruz

SS- Castro

3B- Baez (still think he ends up at 3B rather than 2B)

C- Castillo

 

The latter is a lineup you don't dread anyone coming up, except when they are in a cold streak which Castro, Alcantara, Baez, and Castillo have all been prone to.

What to do with Lake? Does some GM overvalue him? Could he bring back a nice package due to his contract controllability?

The short answers to these questions are 'hopefully nothing important', 'no way in hell', and 'absolutely no way in hell'.

So, no more meatball GMs you're saying? Somebody's gotta be stupid

[Backtobanks]

Presumably, Hammel and Samardzija would be traded for other baseball players. Maybe even baseball players that pitch.

 

The question is when will these "other baseball players" be ready to pitch at the ML level.

[Guest]

So, no more meatball GMs you're saying? Somebody's gotta be stupid

http://i.azcentral.com/i/5/c/c/L169_CIFRd211348cab04d08921911faad96d2cc5.jpg

[Guest]

Presumably, Hammel and Samardzija would be traded for other baseball players. Maybe even baseball players that pitch.

 

The question is when will these "other baseball players" be ready to pitch at the ML level.

 

 

like the guy starting for the cubs right now who they got last july (along with strop) for scott [expletive] feldman and has a 2.90 FIP through 43 innings.

 

watch him give up a big inning now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Presumably, Hammel and Samardzija would be traded for other baseball players. Maybe even baseball players that pitch.

 

Remember when we couldn't project our 2013 and 2014 rotations without including the return from the Garza trade?

[Guest]

Presumably, Hammel and Samardzija would be traded for other baseball players. Maybe even baseball players that pitch.

 

Remember when we couldn't project our 2013 and 2014 rotations without including the return from the Garza trade?

 

And instead it makes up 12% of our active roster. Don't be tedious, the point is that "gee what're we going to do about X when we trade guys away" without considering what you get back from those trades is silly.

[Guest]

Presumably, Hammel and Samardzija would be traded for other baseball players. Maybe even baseball players that pitch.

 

Remember when we couldn't project our 2013 and 2014 rotations without including the return from the Garza trade?

 

And instead it makes up 12% of our active roster. Don't be tedious, the point is that "gee what're we going to do about X when we trade guys away" without considering what you get back from those trades is silly.

 

And the guy we got for a sign and flip guy who is pretty mediocre overall is doing awesome in our rotation right now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

When I look at our pitching for 2015, it's

 

a) Clearly way better than it's been going into any season in a long time.

b) Not enough to make me feel unreservedly good about it.

 

The bullpen has a lot of potential, but we're still counting on a lot of young guys with histories of bouts of wildness. And our management has proven pretty ineffective at deploying the pen in an optimal way the last few years. I can't believe we're *still* 28th in bullpen net WPA.

 

But the rotation is what makes me uneasy.

 

Travis Wood is reliably average, maybe a little better.

Edwin Jackson is about the same, assuming his peripherals ever start showing up in his ERA.

Jake Arrieta looks amazing through 45 innings, but that's 45 innings from a guy with a recent shoulder injury and who has only thrown 120+ innings in a season once, in 2012. Who knows what he'll look like by next April, let alone next August.

Kyle Hendricks looks like he should be an OK starter, presuming his stuff can handle the AAA>MLB promotion.

 

And that's pretty much it. (Wada is the LaHair of pitchers. He is not allowed in this discussion).

 

Knowing that with pitching you need plenty of redundancy, that's probably the back half of your rotation filled. You still need the front half, and that's kind of the hard half to fill, and the front office just yesterday was on the radio talking about their disinterest in paying for pitchers who have been recently good.

 

 

So basically, our 2015 rotation could be contending quality if:

 

a) The front offices commits the resources to making it so next year

and

b) We don't get unlucky.

 

And seeing as how being unlucky and the front office not bothering to put the resources in have pretty much been the two dominant themes of the Cubs' MLB fortunes the last three years, I think it's reasonable to be a bit uneasy.

 

#$@$#@!, this would look so much better with Tanaka in the mix.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And instead it makes up 12% of our active roster. Don't be tedious, the point is that "gee what're we going to do about X when we trade guys away" without considering what you get back from those trades is silly.

 

None of which are in the rotation. And 2/3rds of which is at replacement level or worse.

 

Insisting on factoring in returns we haven't gotten yet is equally silly, because most of the time we don't end up getting anything that addresses the problem we are discussing.

[jersey cubs fan]

When I look at our pitching for 2015, it's

 

a) Clearly way better than it's been going into any season in a long time.

b) Not enough to make me feel unreservedly good about it.

 

So basically, our 2015 rotation could be contending quality if:

 

a) The front offices commits the resources to making it so next year

and

b) We don't get unlucky.

 

 

This started with a comment suggesting the lineup was fine but the pitching staff was what was keeping this team from being competitive. Unless the pitching staff takes a huge nosedrive, they won't be the ones preventing this team from competing. It is still on the lineup to improve. Relying on three newcomers to produce right away, all three at positions they aren't experienced playing, is at least as questionable as anything else about next year's chances to "compete".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The pitching staff absolutely could keep it from being competitive. It's fine this year, but I see plenty of nosedive potential.

 

Basically everything sucks for next year but the bullpen.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's going to be really annoying if we miss the wild card by a few games next year so we can have Bryant and Javy under control in 2021

[Guest]

It's going to be really annoying if we miss the wild card by a few games next year so we can have Bryant and Javy under control in 2021

 

they really only need to hold them back for, what, like 2 weeks?

 

if they actually even entertained the thought (assuming no further crashing and burning by both in iowa) of holding them past super 2, i'd be legit pissed.

[sneakypower]

well, keeping down Javy could very well help our chances of competing