The 2012 Offseason Thread

[KingCubsFan]

Isn't that going to be Stanton?

Andrus, too.

True, he'll hit the market. But is he a difference making hitter? How much money do you give him as a FA? He's not a guy I'd want to invest 100 mill in. Someone will but it'd be as much about the glove as his bat.

I was just highlighting him as a non-pitcher. He's not a difference-making hitter, but if a team ends up giving Michael Bourn $50 million, someone like Andrus should definitely get $100 million.

[dew1679666265]

I'm kind of half in Tim's camp on this, at least with regard to the general notion that giving long term contracts to pitchers is a bad idea, and far more ill-advised than giving them to hitters (I'd probably feel safer giving a soon to be 31 year old Cano a similar deal when he's a FA than I would giving a 26 year old Hernandez this one). You just don't see a lot of longevity + dominance combos happen with pitchers, and it's in no way a slight to or a diminishing of Felix's enormous talent. It's just the nature of the beast. Pitchers are a volatile commodity, regardless of their talent level.

 

This is pretty much exactly where I am. I've been very outspoken in the past couple of years over needing to pay what's necessary for elite level production, but pitchers make me very skittish. They're just too much of a major risk to feel comfortable with giving them these mega-money deals. Injuries can happen for any player, but the likelihood is unbelievably higher with a pitcher, especially one with the mileage Felix has on his arm.

 

I'd probably ultimately bite the bullet and sign him were he a FA, but it's nowhere near a slam dunk and I'd be really nervous every time he took the mound that his arm would fall off at any time.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's completely pointless to talk about either/or with signing your own guy or signing somebody else's free agent who is not yet a free agent.

 

it is beyond pointless, it is a ridiculous comparison.

[XZero771679666304]

It's completely pointless to talk about either/or with signing your own guy or signing somebody else's free agent who is not yet a free agent.

 

it is beyond pointless, it is a ridiculous comparison.

 

 

I'm not sure what you're talking about, but I was just making a hypothetical choice comparison to illustrate how I felt about comparative risk.

[sneakypower]

(Verlander's going to get even more than that...)

[Cubswin11]

(Verlander's going to get even more than that...)

If he has a year this year like he has the past 2-3 I could see him getting an extension during the year/this offseason for $200+

[XZero771679666304]

(Verlander's going to get even more than that...)

 

More years? I don't think so, he's 30 now and will be turning 32 in his FA offseason. I doubt he'd get 7 years right now. More AAV? It depends on how the next couple years go.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Yes, with a pitcher this talented I'm willing to bet big money that this is more due to a pitcher (and ideally his coaches) realizing he doesn't have to blast past everyone to succeed. Nobody is thinking he's going to maintain the velocity he had when he started, but to present the decreasing top speeds on their own as if that's a slam dunk argument that he's cruising for a breakdown is as disingenuous as that list you posted on the previous page.

 

It's not a slam dunk in and of itself, but it makes you wonder if the decline will continue, and where the point is when it will start to seriously impact his performance. He has proven he can pitch and not succeed solely though just blowing people away, but I don't think he's Greg Maddux, either.

 

I think you'd have to see if last year was indicative of an actual downward trend before making the conclusion Tim is; 2008-2011 can hardly be called a steady decline.

[Tyrant]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

Don't pay for past performance, pay for expected performance throughout the course of the contract.

 

In order to be worth considering for that kind of contract, a pitcher probably has to have at least three seasons (preferably more) of elite production already.

[Guest]

Felix already has a 31.5 career WAR and he's only 26

Don't pay for past performance, pay for expected performance throughout the course of the contract.

 

In order to be worth considering for that kind of contract, a pitcher probably has to have at least three seasons (preferably more) of elite production already.

Yes, therein lies the rub.

[davell]

Tim, here's a hypothetical for you: 6 years from now, we're contending every year. Arodys Vizcaino has posted 3 straight 5 WAR seasons for us and is about to become a FA. Not a single guy as good as him on the FA market. Trade market isn't all that appealing either. He's looking for(and will get it elsewhere) 6-150. We don't have a bunch of holes currently in the lineup, but need SP. Are you keeping him?

[Guest]

Tim, here's a hypothetical for you: 6 years from now, we're contending every year. Arodys Vizcaino has posted 3 straight 5 WAR seasons for us and is about to become a FA. Not a single guy as good as him on the FA market. Trade market isn't all that appealing either. He's looking for(and will get it elsewhere) 6-150. We don't have a bunch of holes currently in the lineup, but need SP. Are you keeping him?

Well, I would have tried to anticipate this (being part of a smart front office) and would either have bought out a couple years of his free agency with a Castro-style contract earlier or I would have had plans in place to deal with this contingency when it came up.

 

I'd either plan to let him go or if I felt I had to do the deal to extend my window of contending, I'd plan on finding a replacement within the first couple years of the deal and then trade him when I had that chance.

[Sammy Sofa]

6 years from now the Cubs should be well on the way to becoming the financial juggernaut that doesn't worry about such piddling things.

[Sammy Sofa]

Signed Scott Hairston to a 2 year deal and DFA Tony Campana - 40

 

Good, goooooood.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, how the hell did that get to this thread?

 

I've broken the site.

[SouthSideRyan]

Tim, here's a hypothetical for you: 6 years from now, we're contending every year. Arodys Vizcaino has posted 3 straight 5 WAR seasons for us and is about to become a FA. Not a single guy as good as him on the FA market. Trade market isn't all that appealing either. He's looking for(and will get it elsewhere) 6-150. We don't have a bunch of holes currently in the lineup, but need SP. Are you keeping him?

 

No, you trade him for prospects. 2 in the bush is worth a bird in the hand.

[mookie]

Elbow issue for King Felix. Not shocking.

[Guest]

So King Felix has an elbow "issue," has pulled out of the WBC and the signing of the extension has been delayed.

[Guest]

I'll start accepting the apologies any time people are ready.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'll start accepting the apologies any time people are ready.

 

Why?

[imb]

lol, no. no one was advocating just throwing 175 million at him without making sure everything was sound you dope. Edited February 10, 2013 by Bunts Lick Butts

[Guest]

I suppose you're still in favor of signing him to the extension?

[Guest]

I'll start accepting the apologies any time people are ready.

 

Felix can miss a full season, start declining at 30 and decline at double the expected rate and still put up 30 WAR over 7 years.

[Sammy Sofa]

[Guest]

I'll start accepting the apologies any time people are ready.

 

Felix can miss a full season, start declining at 30 and decline at double the expected rate and still put up 30 WAR over 7 years.

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

This also emphasizes the point CCP was making in terms of the timing. Seattle is gaining very little by doing the extension at this point and accepting a whole lot of risk.