Marlins/Blue Jays trade - Buerhle, Johnson, Escobar and more

[Guest]

SMH at this [expletive] thread

 

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=779599

 

I voted no, but I could be swayed either way. That team becomes competitive much quicker, maintains payroll flexibility with soriano and johnson coming off the books, and would be a lot of fun to watch. That being said, I really really dislike paying Jose Reyes and Mark Buerhle that much money for that long, and I could see both becoming albatrosses. I'm fine with paying top dollar for top talent, but I don't want to put a lot of money into a player who's value comes from his speed when he's getting older and has a history of leg problems.

 

I'm not sure if I would have done it. I'd have to put some more thought into it. Although I really don't think Reyes' contract is terrible and I'm not sure why others think it is.

 

we are taking in way too much salary and we would have to give up a little more than just castro

 

i would yes

 

 

soler/baez/almora and some still getting developed while we contend in this weak dviision? hell yeah

 

an i would try like hard to get price when hes available

Edited November 14, 2012 by David

[ctcf]

Not seeing how LoMo is a great fit for cubs

[Hairyducked Idiot]

All our outfielders are bad, old or on expiring contracts.

[Guest]

All our outfielders are bad, old or on expiring contracts.

 

Problem is, he's barely an outfielder. And he's probably not very good either.

[ctcf]

All our outfielders are bad, old or on expiring contracts.

 

Problem is, he's barely an outfielder. And he's probably not very good either.

 

This. His defense is turrible. He makes the most sense for a team in need of a first baseman and that's not the Cubs.

[USSoccer]

I don't see how playing LF in Wrigley is some sort of difficult thing, especially if we allow Jackson to play CF.

 

EDIT: Also, if Sveum somehow turned Soriano into a passable LF just by moving him back, I'm sure he can figure something out to get LoMo's bat in LF.

[Guest]

x

 

Whoops.

Edited November 14, 2012 by David

[Guest]

I don't see how playing LF in Wrigley is some sort of difficult thing, especially if we allow Jackson to play CF.

 

EDIT: Also, if Sveum somehow turned Soriano into a passable LF just by moving him back, I'm sure he can figure something out to get LoMo's bat in LF.

 

It's not like last year was the first year Soriano graded really well in the outfield. He's not some ridiculous butcher who was turned good by being moved back.

 

 

And what exactly is so good about LoMo's bat and how is it better than Soriano's (in the short run) (or -in the long run- an alternative LFer)?

[USSoccer]

I don't see how playing LF in Wrigley is some sort of difficult thing, especially if we allow Jackson to play CF.

 

EDIT: Also, if Sveum somehow turned Soriano into a passable LF just by moving him back, I'm sure he can figure something out to get LoMo's bat in LF.

 

It's not like last year was the first year Soriano graded really well in the outfield. He's not some ridiculous butcher who was turned good by being moved back.

 

 

And what exactly is so good about LoMo's bat and how is it better than Soriano's (in the short run) (or -in the long run- an alternative LFer)?

 

Well, he's about what, 15 years younger than Soriano? Far cheaper, coming off a down year, for a dead assed team.

 

It's worth looking into.

[Guest]

Soriano is still a butcher, he just has more time to react. The only tool he has is a strong arm, it makes up for some of the damage his terrible route running and inability to judge does.

[Rob]

This is all moot because he's not being traded.

 

But if he were, yes you trade Castro if you have to, and no Rizzo to Stanton is not in any way a lateral move. Baez's ceiling is to be almost as valuable of a hitter as Stanton already is.

 

If you think the injuries will be an issue, I get that. But to set them aside for a moment:

 

Age 22 season, fWAR normalized to 162 games played:

Stanton: 7.2

Pujols: 6.2

Bonds: 6.0

A-Rod: 5.3

 

He's an MVP quality hitter, and he's still younger than three of our top 10 prospects (using the FG list). We don't have anything in our system that compares with him.

 

He's a hell of a hitter. I wont deny it. A .300+ ISO in this offensive environment is crazy, and he takes a good number of walks.

 

But there needs to be some concern with his BABIP. A .340 mark in all likelihood isn't sustainable. Flyball hitters tend to have significantly lower BABIPs than the norm. He needs to improve on the K's just to sustain the offensive level he's had to this point. He's young, so maybe he does so. But it's worrisome.

 

And there's still the health. He's had some issues already, and guys his size tend not to stay all that healthy. Yeah, 7.2 fWAR over 162 games projects nicely. But I don't think you can really count on him for 162. And I'm inclined to believe that going forward he wont be worth the 11+ runs his defense/baserunning would be credited with for this year. (using that 162 game projection).

 

The Rizzo argument is a bit convoluted on my end. It requires accepting my estimate of Stanton more in the 5 win range. And it requires projecting Rizzo back out in the 4 win range. Given the service time there, and the easier availability of cheap, decent, FA OF (DeJesus) than 1B (LaRoche?). I can see either side of it. But I sure as hell wouldn't want to be giving up a bunch extra.

 

I do think you're assigning Baez's ceiling a bit too low, but the more I've thought on that topic today the more I've come around on the concept of trading him.

 

Entirely moot argument due to the fact he's not being moved. But an interesting topic nonetheless. It just bugs me when I hear people clamoring to give up "whatever they want." There has to be a limit, and I like having an idea where it is.

[Guest]

Even the most pessimistic view of Stanton's BABIP(which, come on, he hits the bejeezus out of the ball and 45% of his PAs are three true outcomes) has him as like a 5 win player at age 22. There's nothing at all not to like.

[Rob]

Even the most pessimistic view of Stanton's BABIP(which, come on, he hits the bejeezus out of the ball and 45% of his PAs are three true outcomes) has him as like a 5 win player at age 22. There's nothing at all not to like.

 

Which is why I keep saying nice things about him.

 

It's not a huge insult to say I see the guy more as perennial All-Star than MVP.

[Sammy Sofa]

Even the most pessimistic view of Stanton's BABIP(which, come on, he hits the bejeezus out of the ball and 45% of his PAs are three true outcomes) has him as like a 5 win player at age 22. There's nothing at all not to like.

 

Which is why I keep saying nice things about him.

 

It's not a huge insult to say I see the guy more as perennial All-Star than MVP.

 

Which is still something the Cubs desperately need, so we're kind of just splitting hairs at this point. It's like debating whether the starving man wants a huge, delicious steak to eat or a slightly bigger steak.

[davell]

Rob, just curious, what would you part with, for Stanton?

[Rob]

Rob, just curious, what would you part with, for Stanton?

 

Personally, I'd probably be willing to do a Castro deal. But the front office never would with the price certainty we've got on him.

 

On a purely theoretical basis, I'd have no problem moving Almora or Soler. But we can't trade Almora and the Marlins probably wouldn't want a prospect with a $30 mil price tag. Same with Shark, who's about to get expensive.

 

The two pieces we have that real deals could realistically be structured around would be Rizzo and Baez. I'd be willing to give up either individually. I wouldn't want to include anything else of particular value though (not that we have much). Something like one of those Rizzo/Baez, Brett Jackson, and a guy in the 15-30 range for Stanton and an interesting low level pitching prospect.

[davell]

Cool. Thanks Rob. I asked because earlier today I saw Jorge Angure bring up Profar for Stanton and asked who'd say no? I'm not sure either team would say no to that. Baez plus Jackson? Fairly close in value to Profar, I'd think.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cool. Thanks Rob. I asked because earlier today I saw Jorge Angure bring up Profar for Stanton and asked who'd say no? I'm not sure either team would say no to that. Baez plus Jackson? Fairly close in value to Profar, I'd think.

 

The Marlins should say no to Profar alone.

[Outshined_One]

Even the most pessimistic view of Stanton's BABIP(which, come on, he hits the bejeezus out of the ball and 45% of his PAs are three true outcomes) has him as like a 5 win player at age 22. There's nothing at all not to like.

 

+1

 

The odds of Javier Baez matching that production at that age are miniscule at best.

[KingCubsFan]

Cool. Thanks Rob. I asked because earlier today I saw Jorge Angure bring up Profar for Stanton and asked who'd say no? I'm not sure either team would say no to that. Baez plus Jackson? Fairly close in value to Profar, I'd think.

 

The Marlins should say no to Profar alone.

Yep. If you're the Marlins, the only guys you consider trading Stanton for straight up are probably limited to Harper or Trout.

[Guest]

i'd do starlin for stanton, but i don't see any reason for the marlins to trade him.

[Clem Fandango]

http://i.imgur.com/IuTZ6.jpg

[Warpticon]

Yeah, I definitely want that guy.

[haubrich91]

Haha Stanton and LoMo have some good tweets. The Marlins are a joke.

[Guest]

what's up with jonah keri kissing loria's ass?