BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[toonsterwu]

Fair enough jcf. Look, I think he should be higher. Not as high as we have him on the community list, but roughly that 16-20 range, IMO. I'm just saying I'm not aghast at it. This whole discussion went a bit sideaways, and is a bit predicated on my assumption that the .275/20 is a peak. If not ... this is completely off-point (although if not ... then Vitters should be resoundingly higher).

 

That said, I'll give a response that I'm sure could be countered easily

 

a) How often does a player actually hit peak expectations? AND

 

b) How much of Vitters value is predicated upon the presumption of readiness as a result of the level he's at? There are enough cases that can be shown of guys who can stroke in the upper levels and fail to move forward.

 

If the answer to B is actually that he still has a lot more work to do (let's pretend, for hypothetical's sake, that they heard something that suggested that, as I have no clue and don't pay attention to twitter to see if they've answered that before), then does the fact that his peak expectations are relatively pedestrian (again, based off the presumption that the .275/20 with subpar defense at 3rd was a peak) give them a rationale, as a result of the first question, to drop him a bit?

 

Anyhow, I simply wasn't aghast at it. Blackburn that high is more stunning to me than Vitters. If you flipped Vitters and Blackburn's spots, I would like that list better than where Blackburn is right now.

[davell]

Toonster, I asked Sickels a week ago on Twitter, but got no response. Asked Callis a few days ago and pedigree + speed was his answer. Respect Callis a ton, but I think thats pretty flimsy. Although BA certainly likes keeping high profile picks as high as they can, for as long as they can, in their rankings.

[toonsterwu]

I assume pedigree+speed was in response to Spangenberg? If so, that's pretty much what I figured.

 

I'm still not a Spangenberg fan, though. I'm still not sold that his offensive ability ends up being better than Szczur.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now, getting back to Vitters, the question is, do any of us expect him to be consistently more than a .275ish average and 20 HR's guy if all went well? If so, then there's a clear case for him to be higher. The power seems a tick higher than I am really expecting as a positive case right now. Average ... I could see him a tick higher perhaps.

 

A) If everything goes well for vitters, I'd say .300/20 is more in his wheelhouse than .275/20.

 

B) A .275/20 3rd baseman is super awesome.

 

C) He's *really* close to being there, seeing as how he actually hit in AAA.

[jersey cubs fan]

Now, getting back to Vitters, the question is, do any of us expect him to be consistently more than a .275ish average and 20 HR's guy if all went well? If so, then there's a clear case for him to be higher. The power seems a tick higher than I am really expecting as a positive case right now. Average ... I could see him a tick higher perhaps.

 

A) If everything goes well for vitters, I'd say .300/20 is more in his wheelhouse than .275/20.

 

B) A .275/20 3rd baseman is super awesome.

 

C) He's *really* close to being there, seeing as how he actually hit in AAA.

 

Ronny Cedeno hit in AAA.

[scarey]

Toonster, you keep saying the .275/20 projection was a peak. In my experience rarely do publications give varying degrees of expected performance. Usually, projections on players are peaks. I'm not sure why you are treating this differently than other similar comments.

 

Unless the player's floor/ceiling is mentioned, the projections that are given usually indicate what the player in question could optimally turn out to be.

[toonsterwu]

scarey - I've noted that I could be misreading the statement. But if .275/20 is viewed as more of a ... mean ... then it does seem hard to justify placing him at 25th in the system. I mean, based off eyeballing WAR's, that combination (and sub-par defense, a moderately low walk rate), still gives him a shot to be a 1.5-2.5 WAR type guy (again, fully acknowledge that eyeballing WAR's doesn't really work that well), and as jcf pointed out, it's awful hard to make an argument that there are 24 guys in a system that could be better than that at their peak. If .275/20 (and the subpar defense, low walk rate) is more of a mean/optimal ... it really does feel quite difficult to justify a 25th overall ranking in the system considering his age and level.

 

Edit: Just to note, I said somewhere above that I think .275 might be a tick low on a positive scenario (not best case, just positive), while I view 20 HR's as potentially a bit on the high side of a positive case (reasonable, but I'm thinking a tick lower than that).

[sneakypower]

so his best-case scenario is Chris Johnson or Shea Hillenbrand. how exciting.

[Rob]

so his best-case scenario is Chris Johnson or Shea Hillenbrand. how exciting.

 

What odd comps. Vitters walked more often last year than Johnson or Hillenbrand ever did in the majors (or minors, far as I can tell). Johnson strikes out 25% of the time and Hillenbrand had very little power for the offensive era he played in.

 

Just looking at last year... mid-to-high teens on the strikeout rate. Low walk rate. Moderate power... Best comp I can come up with is Kyle Seager with a bit less speed and defense. The 2013 version of Brett Lawrie is pretty similar too (though I expect more of Lawrie going forward).

 

That's an optimistic projection perhaps. It's assuming his walk rate improvement sticks, his strikeout rate drops back down to the levels he had in the minors in 2010 and 2012, and he's capable of playing merely below-average defense. But if he can he's a league average or slightly better starting 3B. But is that his best case scenario? Hardly. He's shown an ability to limit K's down to around 11-13.5% (2009 and 2011). And at just 23 there's still a chance the power scouts projected finally becomes a reality. He did ISO .210 last year -- it was the PCL, but he was young for the league.

 

This feels like that Junior Lake ceiling argument all over again.

[scarey]

scarey - I've noted that I could be misreading the statement. But if .275/20 is viewed as more of a ... mean ... then it does seem hard to justify placing him at 25th in the system. I mean, based off eyeballing WAR's, that combination (and sub-par defense, a moderately low walk rate), still gives him a shot to be a 1.5-2.5 WAR type guy (again, fully acknowledge that eyeballing WAR's doesn't really work that well), and as jcf pointed out, it's awful hard to make an argument that there are 24 guys in a system that could be better than that at their peak. If .275/20 (and the subpar defense, low walk rate) is more of a mean/optimal ... it really does feel quite difficult to justify a 25th overall ranking in the system considering his age and level.

 

Edit: Just to note, I said somewhere above that I think .275 might be a tick low on a positive scenario (not best case, just positive), while I view 20 HR's as potentially a bit on the high side of a positive case (reasonable, but I'm thinking a tick lower than that).

 

 

Instead of basing their opinion strictly on the .275/20 projection, don't you think it is just as others have said? That BA is weighing his brief time in MLB last year a little too heavily and that's why he is ranked so low?

 

To me, that's the most likely explanation at least.

[Rob]

scarey - I've noted that I could be misreading the statement. But if .275/20 is viewed as more of a ... mean ... then it does seem hard to justify placing him at 25th in the system. I mean, based off eyeballing WAR's, that combination (and sub-par defense, a moderately low walk rate), still gives him a shot to be a 1.5-2.5 WAR type guy (again, fully acknowledge that eyeballing WAR's doesn't really work that well), and as jcf pointed out, it's awful hard to make an argument that there are 24 guys in a system that could be better than that at their peak. If .275/20 (and the subpar defense, low walk rate) is more of a mean/optimal ... it really does feel quite difficult to justify a 25th overall ranking in the system considering his age and level.

 

Edit: Just to note, I said somewhere above that I think .275 might be a tick low on a positive scenario (not best case, just positive), while I view 20 HR's as potentially a bit on the high side of a positive case (reasonable, but I'm thinking a tick lower than that).

 

 

Instead of basing their opinion strictly on the .275/20 projection, don't you think it is just as others have said? That BA is weighing his brief time in MLB last year a little too heavily and that's why he is ranked so low?

 

To me, that's the most likely explanation at least.

 

I think you're right.

 

I just hoped Callis was better than that. Ranking Vitters that low isn't just a bad ranking... it's a lazy one.

[KingCubsFan]

scarey - I've noted that I could be misreading the statement. But if .275/20 is viewed as more of a ... mean ... then it does seem hard to justify placing him at 25th in the system. I mean, based off eyeballing WAR's, that combination (and sub-par defense, a moderately low walk rate), still gives him a shot to be a 1.5-2.5 WAR type guy (again, fully acknowledge that eyeballing WAR's doesn't really work that well), and as jcf pointed out, it's awful hard to make an argument that there are 24 guys in a system that could be better than that at their peak. If .275/20 (and the subpar defense, low walk rate) is more of a mean/optimal ... it really does feel quite difficult to justify a 25th overall ranking in the system considering his age and level.

 

Edit: Just to note, I said somewhere above that I think .275 might be a tick low on a positive scenario (not best case, just positive), while I view 20 HR's as potentially a bit on the high side of a positive case (reasonable, but I'm thinking a tick lower than that).

 

 

Instead of basing their opinion strictly on the .275/20 projection, don't you think it is just as others have said? That BA is weighing his brief time in MLB last year a little too heavily and that's why he is ranked so low?

 

To me, that's the most likely explanation at least.

I think it's just simply that nobody really expects him to stay at 3B longterm, and his value plummets the moment he leaves that position.

[Guest]

I think it's just simply that nobody really expects him to stay at 3B longterm, and his value plummets the moment he leaves that position.

 

That's more or less how I feel about him.

[toonsterwu]

scarey - I've noted that I could be misreading the statement. But if .275/20 is viewed as more of a ... mean ... then it does seem hard to justify placing him at 25th in the system. I mean, based off eyeballing WAR's, that combination (and sub-par defense, a moderately low walk rate), still gives him a shot to be a 1.5-2.5 WAR type guy (again, fully acknowledge that eyeballing WAR's doesn't really work that well), and as jcf pointed out, it's awful hard to make an argument that there are 24 guys in a system that could be better than that at their peak. If .275/20 (and the subpar defense, low walk rate) is more of a mean/optimal ... it really does feel quite difficult to justify a 25th overall ranking in the system considering his age and level.

 

Edit: Just to note, I said somewhere above that I think .275 might be a tick low on a positive scenario (not best case, just positive), while I view 20 HR's as potentially a bit on the high side of a positive case (reasonable, but I'm thinking a tick lower than that).

 

 

Instead of basing their opinion strictly on the .275/20 projection, don't you think it is just as others have said? That BA is weighing his brief time in MLB last year a little too heavily and that's why he is ranked so low?

 

To me, that's the most likely explanation at least.

 

Actually, if I had to take a guess, my guess would be a mixture of three things

 

a) That they wanted to throw a bone out there to Cubs fans and threw out the positive projections they heard when they likely heard a lot more negative projections

 

b) Callis heard something from the Cubs that really soured him on ranking Vitters that high.

 

and

 

c) That he's overrating the short stint in the bigs. I'm not ready to lump it solely as just this, because I seem to recall a few non-Cubs cases that, off the top, that I think Callis did and didn't drop them (I'll doublecheck in the evening if I get a chance), and when you factor in Vitters performance in AAA, it feels like it can't be this on it's own (furthermore, they didn't dock Brett Jackson nearly as much, and he had a glaring flaw ... also last year, Callis suggested at one point that Vitters looked like a possible regular in a chat, so it just feels like it has to be a combination of things that led to this drop).

 

Anyhow, be curious if Callis answered this somewhere on twitter or in a chat. I really just started off with ranking him 25th didn't stun me.

[KingCubsFan]

b) Callis heard something from the Cubs that really soured him on ranking Vitters that high.

That's a good point. BA relies pretty heavily on what the team tells them (David Kelton is the best example), so this ranking lines up with how we think the Cubs perceive Vitters.

[craig]

I think it's just simply that nobody really expects him to stay at 3B longterm, and his value plummets the moment he leaves that position.

 

That's more or less how I feel about him.

 

Make that three.

[davell]

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for us to say anything to anyone that conceivably lowers the trade value of any of our prospects.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ronny Cedeno hit in AAA.

 

A 22-year-old Ronny Cedeno isn't our No. 25 prospect, either.

[jersey cubs fan]

Ronny Cedeno hit in AAA.

 

A 22-year-old Ronny Cedeno isn't our No. 25 prospect, either.

 

Correct, because he could field a tough position.

[KingCubsFan]

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for us to say anything to anyone that conceivably lowers the trade value of any of our prospects.

I don't think they'd ever talk bad about any of their prospects. But when Callis asks them to describe the system or guys they're really excited about (clearly Pierce Johnson fits into this category), BA places some weight on that. Clearly, they didn't have much to say about Vitters.

[Guest]

Honestly... It's pretty clear that Vitters can't handle 3B competently... and it's not like he projects to be great enough with the bat to move elsewhere or to overcome being terrible in the field. Soooo, where's the real upside?

 

25 may be a bit harsh, but I'm definitely not at all excited about him as a prospect in any way.

[Guest]

@jimcallisBA: Might be .275/20 HR but has to show it, no D value. @JohnWisher1: Loved your #Cubs Top 30. Vitters ranking (25th) due to bad MLB stint?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ronny Cedeno hit in AAA.

 

A 22-year-old Ronny Cedeno isn't our No. 25 prospect, either.

 

Correct, because he could field a tough position.

 

Because when a 22-year-old hits at AAA, nobody has 24 better prospects.

[KingCubsFan]

Ronny Cedeno hit in AAA.

 

A 22-year-old Ronny Cedeno isn't our No. 25 prospect, either.

 

Correct, because he could field a tough position.

 

Because when a 22-year-old hits at AAA, nobody has 24 better prospects.

I doubt Marwin Gonzalez would have been much higher than 25 last year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ronny Cedeno hit in AAA.

 

A 22-year-old Ronny Cedeno isn't our No. 25 prospect, either.

 

Correct, because he could field a tough position.

 

Because when a 22-year-old hits at AAA, nobody has 24 better prospects.

I doubt Marwin Gonzalez would have been much higher than 25 last year.

 

"Hits at AAA"