2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[jumbo]

can you even waive your immediate trade rights? i thought those were more of an mlb rule than a protection built into player contracts.

 

also, i suspect it would cost a lot more than 500k to talk a player into giving up what, in many cases, will be his first ever chance to choose where he plays.

Evidently you can waive them. But it'd be a thing where the player knows where he's going to be playing from the get-go. They just get their money from a different team. I guess you'd kind of have to recruit a small market team early in the offseason and come up with some parameters up front. "We'll send you 10 mill for whatever and you give us this prospect". Then let that team make it work from there. But the player knows up front that this is how it's going to go down.

 

So why not just pay for the prospect and let them sign the player?

 

If I'm understanding the theory, it would allow a team like the Cubs to use their cash to get prospects outside of the amateur spending limits of the new CBA

[Guest]

can you even waive your immediate trade rights? i thought those were more of an mlb rule than a protection built into player contracts.

 

also, i suspect it would cost a lot more than 500k to talk a player into giving up what, in many cases, will be his first ever chance to choose where he plays.

Evidently you can waive them. But it'd be a thing where the player knows where he's going to be playing from the get-go. They just get their money from a different team. I guess you'd kind of have to recruit a small market team early in the offseason and come up with some parameters up front. "We'll send you 10 mill for whatever and you give us this prospect". Then let that team make it work from there. But the player knows up front that this is how it's going to go down.

 

So why not just pay for the prospect and let them sign the player?

 

If I'm understanding the theory, it would allow a team like the Cubs to use their cash to get prospects outside of the amateur spending limits of the new CBA

 

And Kyle's saying why not just cut out the signing part and send the Royals the money for the prospects. But I think deals with large sums of cash come under more scrutiny by the commissioner's office, right?

 

Not that a deal like is being talked about wouldn't come under such scrutiny anyway.

[Cubswin11]

The Angels are aggressively trying to trade starters Dan Haren and Ervin Santana, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. It’ll be an upset if they don’t complete at least one deal, and one MLB executive expects both right-handers to be moved. The Angels have been weighing possible trades for at least two days now.

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Expect-Los-Angeles-Angels-to-make-trade-Ervin-Santana-Dan-Haren-103012

[Clem Fandango]

Joakim Soria's option was declined. Good target for the Cubs?

[mul21]

Joakim Soria's option was declined. Good target for the Cubs?

 

Absolutely. He's a guy you'd definitely like to have on a short term deal at the deadline. Somebody always needs a closer and if he's healthy, he's got the track record that somebody will be willing to pay for.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Joakim Soria's option was declined. Good target for the Cubs?

 

Oh lord, yes. But we won't.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Angels are aggressively trying to trade starters Dan Haren and Ervin Santana, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. It’ll be an upset if they don’t complete at least one deal, and one MLB executive expects both right-handers to be moved. The Angels have been weighing possible trades for at least two days now.

 

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Expect-Los-Angeles-Angels-to-make-trade-Ervin-Santana-Dan-Haren-103012

 

Absolutely not on Santana.

 

Haren wouldn't be my first choice, but if we get to the end of the offseason and have Villanueva and some other scrub as our pitching pickups, I'll wish we had Haren instead.

[davell]

Soria's not going anywhere. They're just working on a longer term deal for him.

[jumbo]

can you even waive your immediate trade rights? i thought those were more of an mlb rule than a protection built into player contracts.

 

also, i suspect it would cost a lot more than 500k to talk a player into giving up what, in many cases, will be his first ever chance to choose where he plays.

Evidently you can waive them. But it'd be a thing where the player knows where he's going to be playing from the get-go. They just get their money from a different team. I guess you'd kind of have to recruit a small market team early in the offseason and come up with some parameters up front. "We'll send you 10 mill for whatever and you give us this prospect". Then let that team make it work from there. But the player knows up front that this is how it's going to go down.

 

So why not just pay for the prospect and let them sign the player?

 

If I'm understanding the theory, it would allow a team like the Cubs to use their cash to get prospects outside of the amateur spending limits of the new CBA

 

And Kyle's saying why not just cut out the signing part and send the Royals the money for the prospects. But I think deals with large sums of cash come under more scrutiny by the commissioner's office, right?

 

Not that a deal like is being talked about wouldn't come under such scrutiny anyway.

 

I'm not sure that what is being described would be allowed by MLB, but it is definitely more likely to pass than one team selling prospects to another. It's all highly unlikely, of course.

[nilodnayr]

Doesn't the league have to approve all deals with more than $1m changing hands? Meaning they would be able to kibosh either of those ideas. Heck if they didn't, then we could just pay Loria a $10m vig for his entire draft class if we wanted (after the requisite waiting period).

[Clem Fandango]

Not really news, but MLBTR released a Top 50 FA list and predictions on where they'll land. Only one they predicted the Cubs will get is Marcum...

 

19. Shaun Marcum - Cubs. The question with Marcum is how intent he is on playing for a contender, since teams like the Cubs, Royals, Padres, and Twins may have interest. Marcum will only be 31 in December, but he battled elbow pain this year and doesn't have the power repertoire of an Edwin Jackson. He'll hold appeal to many teams if he's open to a two-year deal.

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#zW5O2Y6osL8GgdIF.99

 

Also had the Cubs as possible interested parties on Francisco Liriano, Carlos Villanueva, Joe Blanton, and Jeremy Guthrie.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/2013-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions-1.html

[Cubswin11]

I really have no interest in Marcum, I'd rather we just bring Dempster back. I think both of them are roughly in the same boat when it comes to the market for them and both are about equally talented/have similar track records with Dempster being slighly better. But I bet they get similar deals.

[SouthSideRyan]

Jeremy Guthrie, seriously?

 

[expletive] everything

[Guest]

Jeremy Guthrie, seriously?

 

[expletive] everything

 

I wouldn't take that list as anything but pure speculation anyway.

[bukie]

The list would likely be just as accurate if they predicted everyone would go to the Yankees.

[Guest]

The start of rumors and that front office chat got me to thinking, so here's a first pass at an offseason. Forgive me if any and all trade propositions sound horrific for one/both sides.

 

- If Justin Upton is going to be available, sell out to do that. Short of trading crucial MLB assets(Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, that's about it), there isn't anyone I'm unwilling to part with on their own. I'll just assume he's not available or the price is excessive for this exercise.

 

- Trade Barney to a team needing a SS. Following who is interested in Elvis Andrus is a pretty good means to track someone who might like Barney as a consolation prize. The deal: Barney and Cabrera/Dolis/Beliveau (hopefully Beliveau) to Tampa for Hellickson and Davis. Tampa avoids arbitration/contract increases with assets they aren't dying to pay for, adds a 3 win SS and 5 years of a high K reliever. The Cubs get a bullpen stopper they control for 3 years(albeit at a price), and a SP to plug into a rotation to hopefully improve based on age/pedigree/change in competition/change in coaching/etc.

 

- Backfill Barney on the cheap. If Toronto wants to cut bait with Escobar for little, pursue that. I like the idea Fangraphs floated today of repeating the success that Milwaukee had with Aoki. Nakajima sounds like the best option to me, so let's say they give him a 2-3 year deal.

 

- Add a FA SP. There's several in the middle tier including Jackson, Liriano, McCarthy, Marcum, etc. PIck your favorite. I like Jackson if the contract isn't super long and prohibitive, otherwise I'd take a risk on Liriano. Let's say Liriano's the guy here.

 

- Let Valbuena be the placeholder 3B. This is not an idea I'm super fond of, but given the organization repeating that they see the next 3B coming from within, and that the options outside the organization on the market aren't all that inspiring, rewarding Valbuena for a productive 2012 isn't the worst thing. Finding the new Jeff Baker to platoon with him wouldn't be the worst idea either.

 

- Make Vitters this year's Colvin. Capitalize on his big year and try to get a cost controlled asset that may be undervalued. This is the trickiest trade to try to conjure, but I'll give it a try: VItters for Domonic Brown. Philly has no one in the organization that could be even a passable MLB 3B right now, and they've soured on Brown's potential to the point that he's not guaranteed an MLB job in 2013. Similar reasoning for acquiring Hellickson applies to trading for Brown, with the added hope that Brown can shake off the leg problems that plagued him in 2012 and parlay it into a nice 2013.

 

- Find another Ryan Dempster circa 2004. I'm not sure who's out there, and I've been rambling too long anyway, but finding someone who may not be ready at the start of the season could pair nicely with Vizcaino as rotation insurance since Vizcaino won't be throwing 200 IP next year.

 

What does that leave us with?

 

DeJesus (with Jackson lingering if he fixes his swing)

Castro

Rizzo

Soriano

Castillo

Brown

Nakajima

Valbuena

 

Garza/Samardzija/Liriano/Hellickson/Wood/Vizcaino/Rehab/Org guys/Struck/L Castillo

 

Marmol/Davis/Russell/Bowden/Chapman/Cabrera/Dolis/Maine

 

Like last year, there's 4 guys added relative to last year that could become 3 win performers or greater. Last year they hit on Shark and Rizzo, whiffed on Stewart and Wood. A similar percentage this year on Liriano, Hellickson, Brown, and Castillo, combined with either Rizzo or Castro breaking out, could leave the team a lot closer to conention the following year than people seem to think. Especially since I don't think there's anything truly remarkable about any one addition made here. As it is, that team probably wins between 72 and 80 games, although when the offseason hinges on finding undervalued commodities, there's certainly going to be some difference of opinion on who's a worthwhile gamble.

[RynoRules]

The start of rumors and that front office chat got me to thinking, so here's a first pass at an offseason. Forgive me if any and all trade propositions sound horrific for one/both sides.

 

- If Justin Upton is going to be available, sell out to do that. Short of trading crucial MLB assets(Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, that's about it), there isn't anyone I'm unwilling to part with on their own. I'll just assume he's not available or the price is excessive for this exercise.

 

- Trade Barney to a team needing a SS. Following who is interested in Elvis Andrus is a pretty good means to track someone who might like Barney as a consolation prize. The deal: Barney and Cabrera/Dolis/Beliveau (hopefully Beliveau) to Tampa for Hellickson and Davis. Tampa avoids arbitration/contract increases with assets they aren't dying to pay for, adds a 3 win SS and 5 years of a high K reliever. The Cubs get a bullpen stopper they control for 3 years(albeit at a price), and a SP to plug into a rotation to hopefully improve based on age/pedigree/change in competition/change in coaching/etc.

 

- Backfill Barney on the cheap. If Toronto wants to cut bait with Escobar for little, pursue that. I like the idea Fangraphs floated today of repeating the success that Milwaukee had with Aoki. Nakajima sounds like the best option to me, so let's say they give him a 2-3 year deal.

 

- Add a FA SP. There's several in the middle tier including Jackson, Liriano, McCarthy, Marcum, etc. PIck your favorite. I like Jackson if the contract isn't super long and prohibitive, otherwise I'd take a risk on Liriano. Let's say Liriano's the guy here.

 

- Let Valbuena be the placeholder 3B. This is not an idea I'm super fond of, but given the organization repeating that they see the next 3B coming from within, and that the options outside the organization on the market aren't all that inspiring, rewarding Valbuena for a productive 2012 isn't the worst thing. Finding the new Jeff Baker to platoon with him wouldn't be the worst idea either.

 

- Make Vitters this year's Colvin. Capitalize on his big year and try to get a cost controlled asset that may be undervalued. This is the trickiest trade to try to conjure, but I'll give it a try: VItters for Domonic Brown. Philly has no one in the organization that could be even a passable MLB 3B right now, and they've soured on Brown's potential to the point that he's not guaranteed an MLB job in 2013. Similar reasoning for acquiring Hellickson applies to trading for Brown, with the added hope that Brown can shake off the leg problems that plagued him in 2012 and parlay it into a nice 2013.

 

- Find another Ryan Dempster circa 2004. I'm not sure who's out there, and I've been rambling too long anyway, but finding someone who may not be ready at the start of the season could pair nicely with Vizcaino as rotation insurance since Vizcaino won't be throwing 200 IP next year.

 

What does that leave us with?

 

DeJesus (with Jackson lingering if he fixes his swing)

Castro

Rizzo

Soriano

Castillo

Brown

Nakajima

Valbuena

 

Garza/Samardzija/Liriano/Hellickson/Wood/Vizcaino/Rehab/Org guys/Struck/L Castillo

 

Marmol/Davis/Russell/Bowden/Chapman/Cabrera/Dolis/Maine

 

Like last year, there's 4 guys added relative to last year that could become 3 win performers or greater. Last year they hit on Shark and Rizzo, whiffed on Stewart and Wood. A similar percentage this year on Liriano, Hellickson, Brown, and Castillo, combined with either Rizzo or Castro breaking out, could leave the team a lot closer to conention the following year than people seem to think. Especially since I don't think there's anything truly remarkable about any one addition made here. As it is, that team probably wins between 72 and 80 games, although when the offseason hinges on finding undervalued commodities, there's certainly going to be some difference of opinion on who's a worthwhile gamble.

 

I started to write a very similar post then I noticed this one. Very well written, and very likely the reality (especially the bit about 3B). It's not what we all want, but Theo and Jed are trying to reverse 10-plus years of poor leadership around player development, finances, and culture in general. It's going to take some time.

[Guest]

Is Darwin Barney really a 3 win SS?

[mul21]

That approach seems completely reasonable and plausible. That would be a team that at least wouldn't be painful to watch the last 2 months of the season unless they really went after it in terms of selling off parts for prospects.

[Guest]

Not sure if TT's price tag is reasonable (I'm bad at figuring out trade value) but I love the idea of acquiring Brown and Hellickson.

[Guest]

Is Darwin Barney really a 3 win SS?

 

Despite what Keith Law says, Barney would be one of the better defensive shortstops in baseball and the weak bat would play better at SS. Don't know if that translates to a 3-win player but he'd be a more valuable player than he is now.

[Tryptamine]

So given that the Dodgers have locked in their outfield for the next half a decade, can the Cubs get Puig? They obviously like him as they were in on the bidding and he's completely blocked now. What does it take to land him?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Let the official off-season crappy pitcher roster church begin! (I know, we got that guy from the Twins, but the season was still technically going on then).

 

 

#Cubs claimed RHP Zach Putnam off waivers from #Rockies. Putnam is 19-12 w/ 26 SV, 3.90 ERA, 270 K & 94 BB over 295.2 IP in 171 MiLB games.

[Little Slide Rooter]

@mlbtraderumors: Royals Designate Jeffress, Bourgeois For Assignment http://t.co/DJgkfzyt #mlb

 

Yes please to Jeffess

[Little Slide Rooter]

@mlbtraderumors: Kameron Loe, Nyjer Morgan Elect Free Agency http://t.co/bObyPV4y #mlb

 

Any interest in Nyjer Morgan and his multiple personality disorder? He always seems to be great his first season with a new team.