Random Baseball Musings

[Clem Fandango]

Gomez's power surge is pretty strange. Has he always had that sort of Gary Sheffield style follow through?

 

http://mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23876031&c_id=mlb

[UMFan83]

Wow, I was quite perplexed at how the Orioles were this good, but I just noticed that they still have a fairly big run differential despite being 16 games over .500. Their -31 differential is the 5th worst in the AL, and their expected record is 64-70 instead of their actual 75-59 record.

 

I am cheering for the Orioles because I've always liked that team and they havent made the playoffs in quite awhile, but if any team were going to collapse down the stretch, it would probably be them.

[Clem Fandango]

3 years ago I wished that the Cubs were in the O's position, franchise wise... they had the following pieces of talent either established, breaking in at MLB level, or stewing in the minors:

 

Matt Wieters

Adam Jones

Nick Markakis

Brian Roberts

Brian Matusz

Chris Tillman

Zach Britton

Jake Arrietta

Brandon Snyder

Nolan Reimold

Josh Bell

 

Among others useful roleplayers. I could've sworn they were gonna be a force to be reckoned with by this time... but not a single one of their stud pitchers have really panned out yet, and it took Wieters years to finally become useful, Roberts got injured like a mf'er, and Jones is finally hitting his stride. It's sad. How does one franchise with so much young up and coming talent falter so badly at AAA/MLB level? Matusz was supposed to be ace level... now he's an after thought. It upsets me, I had high hopes for them. I'm glad they're doing well now but it does seem like extreme smoke and mirrors.

 

Oh well. C'est la vie

[Clem Fandango]

What happened to Tim Lincecum? He's REALLY bad this year...

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml

[Clem Fandango]

Also, where did Kris Medlen come from?

[Cubswin11]

3 years ago I wished that the Cubs were in the O's position, franchise wise... they had the following pieces of talent either established, breaking in at MLB level, or stewing in the minors:

 

Matt Wieters

Adam Jones

Nick Markakis

Brian Roberts

Brian Matusz

Chris Tillman

Zach Britton

Jake Arrietta

Brandon Snyder

Nolan Reimold

Josh Bell

 

Among others useful roleplayers. I could've sworn they were gonna be a force to be reckoned with by this time... but not a single one of their stud pitchers have really panned out yet, and it took Wieters years to finally become useful, Roberts got injured like a mf'er, and Jones is finally hitting his stride. It's sad. How does one franchise with so much young up and coming talent falter so badly at AAA/MLB level? Matusz was supposed to be ace level... now he's an after thought. It upsets me, I had high hopes for them. I'm glad they're doing well now but it does seem like extreme smoke and mirrors.

 

Oh well. C'est la vie

I think you pretty much hit it. Their lack of developing a top of the rotation arm or two out of all the talent they had has really set them back and is the main reason. Playing in the AL East also doesn't help as you have needed to win 95+ games recently just to compete.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Before the Orioles, it was the Royals. Before that, it was the Indians.

 

There seems to be a key step in the "Acquire awesome minor league system > ???? > Be awesome at the MLB level" that is very tricky to find.

[XZero771679666304]

Before the Orioles, it was the Royals. Before that, it was the Indians.

 

There seems to be a key step in the "Acquire awesome minor league system > ???? > Be awesome at the MLB level" that is very tricky to find.

 

The Royals' problem is that while they do produce players, they don't have the payroll for any of them to stick long enough, or to supplement the roster with FAs when there is an opportunity to win. It's the same thing we've seen with other low payroll teams (the Pirates also come to mind). Because those teams lack the financial flexibility to add elite talent, they need to hit on a very high percentage of their prospects during a given time frame to actually become a winning team.

 

And the Indians did a pretty awesome job of building a very good team primarily from within during the 90s. But the keys are obviously a) being able to retain your good developed players and b) being able to afford talent to plug in around them when the become good at the ML level.

[El Duderino]

The Royals' problem is that they have produced 0 pitchers.

[bukie]

The Royals' problem is that they have produced 0 pitchers.

Zack Greinke?

[Cubswin11]

The Orioles/Royals problems of not being able to have great teams at the ML level despite having such highly rated systems proves how big a crapshoot it is to produce high level pitching talent in the minors. I kind of prefer the idea of trying to produce as many position players as possible (since they are easier to develop in numbers) and not worry as much about producing pitching prospects. Then when your position players are ready to contribute at the ML level go out and spend your resources on acquiring proven pitching (either through FA and spending money or trades and giving up young position players).

[Post Count Padder]

John Jaso leads the Mariners in batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS. And they've given Miguel Olivo more at bats than him.

[Clem Fandango]

The Royals' problem is that they have produced 0 pitchers.

Zack Greinke?

 

It took several years before Greinke reached his potential, and by the time he did they had to ship him off because they knew they probably couldn't keep him. Shipped him off early for a larger return instead of delaying the inevitable.

[bukie]

The Royals' problem is that they have produced 0 pitchers.

Zack Greinke?

 

It took several years before Greinke reached his potential, and by the time he did they had to ship him off because they knew they probably couldn't keep him. Shipped him off early for a larger return instead of delaying the inevitable.

Greinke had a 120 ERA+ in his first full season at age 20. He pitched six years for the Royals before they traded him.

[Clem Fandango]

The Royals' problem is that they have produced 0 pitchers.

Zack Greinke?

 

It took several years before Greinke reached his potential, and by the time he did they had to ship him off because they knew they probably couldn't keep him. Shipped him off early for a larger return instead of delaying the inevitable.

Greinke had a 120 ERA+ in his first full season at age 20. He pitched six years for the Royals before they traded him.

 

And then he did poorly after his first year (76 ERA+ in 2005), had a psychological spell, wanted to quit baseball, then returned to the team in the bullpen, said he never wanted to start again, then agreed to start again and was a solid #2 type before becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball in his 6th year as a Royal (205 ERA+), which he then followed up with a completely league average performance (100 ERA+) before being traded to the Brewers that offseason.

[bukie]

Regardless of what happened during those six years, none of what you posted was true. He pitched well right away, and they didn't get rid of him early.

[illiniguy]

The royals problem is Dayton Moore. Wil Myers is in AAA while Jeff Francouer plays everyday.

[Cubswin11]

I didn't see it posted anywhere else, but Jonah Keri in his weekly power rankings article on Grantland mentioned that kevin Goldstein was hired by the Astros as their pro scouting director.

[SouthSideRyan]

I didn't see it posted anywhere else, but Jonah Keri in his weekly power rankings article on Grantland mentioned that kevin Goldstein was hired by the Astros as their pro scouting director.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18207

[El Duderino]

Regardless of what happened during those six years, none of what you posted was true. He pitched well right away, and they didn't get rid of him early.

 

Okay, touche. They have produced 1 legitimate pitcher for their starting rotation.

[Clem Fandango]

Regardless of what happened during those six years, none of what you posted was true. He pitched well right away, and they didn't get rid of him early.

 

He had a 3.97 ERA his rookie year which was a good showing. He followed it up with a 5.80 ERA. He pitched 6 innings the following year because he was battling his anxiety and depression and he almost quit baseball. Then when he came back the next year he had a nice 3.69 ERA, but he only started 14 games, and made 52 total appearances splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. He started the first 6 games and had an ERA of 5.71 when they moved him to the bullpen, where he pitched until August 20th (when his ERA was still 4.40) when they moved him back into the rotation for the end of the season and he performed well. Then he made his first full season as a starter since 2005 in 2008 where he performed similarly to his end of the year in 2007, doing very well. They then signed him to a nice extension and then he came out of nowhere to put up on the best pitching seasons of the decade in 2009. He then put up a 4.17 ERA in 2010 and was traded in the offseason a year before his contract hit 7 figures.

 

So I'm not sure how you could say that nothing I said was true when it was, in fact, entirely true and based on statistical and documented facts. It took several years (about 5-6) before Greinke started to pitch like they expected him to, and a year after his extension was signed and he turned in a performance that paled in comparison to his 2009 and they traded him off. Perhaps I should've clarified and said they traded him off early, meaning they traded him off well before his extension was finished and after his "poor showing" in the follow up season to get the most they could out of him in a trade, but I didn't say anything that wasn't based on statistical or documented facts.

[bukie]

1. ERA in a vacuum tells you nothing, so don't use it as your only statistic to determine how effective a pitcher was.

2. He was one of the ten best pitchers in the AL in his first year, so he didn't take a while to get good.

3. His social anxiety disorder was very similar to another's pitching injury. As soon as they diagnosed it, they worked to get him back to 100%.

4. When he was 100%, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, which he was for 5 of the 7 years he pitched for the Royals (one was his second year, one was the year he was dealt).

5. He was dealt just before he got expensive for them, and after he was a Cy Young pitcher, and easily the best pitcher in baseball.

 

So, when you stated that Greinke "took several years" to reach his potential, and the Royals "shipped him off early", those statements were at best misleading and at worst factually incorrect.

[Clem Fandango]

1. ERA in a vacuum tells you nothing, so don't use it as your only statistic to determine how effective a pitcher was.

Fair enough

 

2. He was one of the ten best pitchers in the AL in his first year, so he didn't take a while to get good.

False. He was nowhere near one of the 10 best pitchers in the AL his first year. Nor was he in his 2nd year. Or his 3rd. He was the 10th best pitcher by fWAR in his 4th full season (his 5th year as a Royal). He was 8th best pitcher by fWAR in his final year as a Royal. So he was one of the 10 best pitchers in the AL for the final 3 of his 7 total years as a Royal.

 

3. His social anxiety disorder was very similar to another's pitching injury. As soon as they diagnosed it, they worked to get him back to 100%.

Not sure what the point is you're trying to make with that statement.

 

4. When he was 100%, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, which he was for 5 of the 7 years he pitched for the Royals (one was his second year, one was the year he was dealt).

See #2.

 

5. He was dealt just before he got expensive for them, and after he was a Cy Young pitcher, and easily the best pitcher in baseball.

His insane 2009 (9.3 fWAR) allowed him to be listed as the most valuable pitcher between 2008-2010 in the AL (the only time frame when he was considered a Top 10 pitcher in the league). He was 4th most valuable in both AL and NL, behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Tim Lincecum. If you want to extend that all the way to his rookie year, he was the 8th most valuable pitcher during his AL stint from 2004-2010. He was out fWAR'd in the AL by C.C Sabathia, Roy Halladay, John Lackey, Mark Beuhrle, Johan Santana, and Felix Hernandez. If you extend that to both NL and AL, he was 13th most valuable in that time frame. Other pitchers who get put in front of him include Javier Vasquez, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, and Josh Beckett.

 

So, when you stated that Greinke "took several years" to reach his potential, and the Royals "shipped him off early", those statements were at best misleading and at worst factually incorrect.

No, they really weren't.

[Careless]

Wow, I was quite perplexed at how the Orioles were this good, but I just noticed that they still have a fairly big run differential despite being 16 games over .500. Their -31 differential is the 5th worst in the AL, and their expected record is 64-70 instead of their actual 75-59 record.

\

I came here to make this basic post after I saw they tied for the lead in the AL East tonight with a 12-0 victory and were still -19 runs. That's got to be annoying for Yankees fans, but screw Yankees fans.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wow, I was quite perplexed at how the Orioles were this good, but I just noticed that they still have a fairly big run differential despite being 16 games over .500. Their -31 differential is the 5th worst in the AL, and their expected record is 64-70 instead of their actual 75-59 record.

\

I came here to make this basic post after I saw they tied for the lead in the AL East tonight with a 12-0 victory and were still -19 runs. That's got to be annoying for Yankees fans, but screw Yankees fans.

 

Before Saturday, they had won 13 consecutive one run games. ~1 in 10,000 shot.