How many pieces are in place?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How many members of the next Cubs playoff team are currently in the organization?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Castro for sure.

 

Up in the air:

 

Russell - Who don't like relieving Russell?

Jackson

Vitters

Rizzo

Baez

 

So one and some prayers...I guess two with Russel, who's a least actually a successful young big leaguer.

[Sammy Sofa]

Jesus Christ, does Garza just not exist for some of you people?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Jesus Christ, does Garza just not exist for some of you people?

 

Wow brain freeze.

 

Didn't even THINK of Garza. So 2.5 for sure...

[Guest]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

 

Completely forgot pen arms...I figure they'll do the bullpen internally because smart teams do that. For instance, I really like Beliveau's future here...Dolis with some more polish....etc

 

Then there's Shark...who I also forgot.

Edited April 23, 2012 by PriortoTheoIhadWood

[SouthSideRyan]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

 

That's what I picked, but I could come up with a scenario where the answer is 9-10. More likely to be 16-20 though.

[treebird]

how on earth can anyone vote for 0-5, is this a joke?

[treebird]

if you vote for 0-5, it better be because you think the cubs aren't making the playoffs for the next ten years

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

if you vote for 0-5, it better be because you think the cubs aren't making the playoffs for the next ten years

 

I just dove right in without doing all out thinking...Didn't consider that they'd built the bullpen internally, which they most likely will...Forgot two of the young SPs worth keeping (I'm high on Shark still)...weirdly enough I included James Russell...big wtf.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

if you vote for 0-5, it better be because you think the cubs aren't making the playoffs for the next ten years

I did initially thinking only of the current 25 man roster, but I have since changed my vote.

[jersey cubs fan]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

 

How? That's saying the next playoff team will be made up almost entirely of the team's own prospects, and almost all of those guys would have been acquired by Hendry/Wilken. Unless they make the playoffs next year the 25 man roster will turnover significantly before then. And it's highly doubtful the organization as it stands will supply another dozen or so 25-man roster players to the next playoff squad.

[sneakypower]

5 of 8 regulars

3 of 5 starters

 

then there's easily 3 bench players and 4 bullpen arms in the system

 

15-20

Edited April 26, 2012 by sneakypower

[Guest]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

 

How? That's saying the next playoff team will be made up almost entirely of the team's own prospects, and almost all of those guys would have been acquired by Hendry/Wilken. Unless they make the playoffs next year the 25 man roster will turnover significantly before then. And it's highly doubtful the organization as it stands will supply another dozen or so 25-man roster players to the next playoff squad.

 

Being conservative:

 

2-3 SP are in the organization(maybe 4 if Garza's extended and/or Shark breaks out)

4-5 RP are in the organization

2-3 bench players are in the organization(maybe more depending on what positions are needed v. organizational depth)

Castro

Rizzo

Jackson

Barney(could be part of the bench too)

 

That gets you 12-15 without being all that optimistic. And more importantly, leaves 40+% of the roster open for turnover/improvement. Unless the assumption is that the next Cub playoff team is 4-5 years down the road, then it's pretty much impossible(if not pointless) to make a guess.

[jersey cubs fan]

That gets you 12-15 without being all that optimistic.

 

I think it's a really big stretch to assume that isn't being all that optimistic. 4-5 relief pitchers? So 3 years from now you assume almost the entire bullpen will be Cubs pitchers acquired under Hendry/Wilken? Doubtful. They will probably have 3-4 guys we haven't even thought of yet in that bullpen.

 

 

This is sounding very Choi/Montanez/Hill/Kelton to me.

 

If you think they make the playoffs next year, okay. But that is doubtful. And you really have to make some unlikely assumptions to be putting together the 2014 roster right now.

[jersey cubs fan]

15 is nowhere near a conservative low end estimate.

[davell]

I said 11-15. I figure Garza and Shark are the only starting pitchers. My guess is Dolis will be here in the pen, same with Beliveau and McNutt. I'll say we've got one more from somewhere within the system as well, maybe Rhee or Zych. I'll say Barney is a reserve, same with Clevenger and one of Ha or Szczur. I'll say Castro, Brett, Rizzo, and Castillo will be here. Hesitant to say Baez, only because I can see him dealt for pitching at some point.

[CubColtPacer]

A quick look at the last 2 playoff teams: the 2008 Cubs had at least 12 players on their playoff roster who were in the organization at the beginning of 2006 (I couldn't find the full roster).

 

The 2003 Cubs I didn't doublecheck any individual player, but when looking at the playoff roster I'd guess about 6 were in the organization at the beginning of 2001.

 

It makes sense that the next Cubs playoff team should be a higher number than most both because that seems to be the philosophy of the front office, and also because the Cubs farm system is filled with quantity right now that should be able to fill up those spare parts of a major league team. But it really depends how many spare part for spare part trades they make, and of course how many years it takes to get in the playoffs.

[Guest]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

 

How? That's saying the next playoff team will be made up almost entirely of the team's own prospects, and almost all of those guys would have been acquired by Hendry/Wilken. Unless they make the playoffs next year the 25 man roster will turnover significantly before then. And it's highly doubtful the organization as it stands will supply another dozen or so 25-man roster players to the next playoff squad.

 

Being conservative:

 

2-3 SP are in the organization(maybe 4 if Garza's extended and/or Shark breaks out)

4-5 RP are in the organization

2-3 bench players are in the organization(maybe more depending on what positions are needed v. organizational depth)

Castro

Rizzo

Jackson

Barney(could be part of the bench too)

 

That gets you 12-15 without being all that optimistic. And more importantly, leaves 40+% of the roster open for turnover/improvement. Unless the assumption is that the next Cub playoff team is 4-5 years down the road, then it's pretty much impossible(if not pointless) to make a guess.

Castillo/Clevenger.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'd say that we only really need 3-4 pieces, but they're big pieces. Assuming we extend Garza, I'd like to see 1 more front end starter and 1 mid rotation starter. at least 1 bat for the heart of the lineup. 2 would be nice.

 

Likely

1. Starlin Castro, SS or 3B

2. Darwin Barney, 2B or utility

3. Wellington Castillo, C

4. Steve Clevenger Backup C

5. Rafael Dolis Pen (back end?)

6. Jeff Beliveau Pen (back end?)

7. Anthony Rizzo 1B

8. Brett Jackson CF or 4th OF

9. Travis Wood back end rotation

10. James Russell

 

hopefully we hang on to

11. Matt Garza 1-2 starter

12. Jeff Samardzjia mid rotation

 

Additional pieces

13. Bryan LaHair LF/bench

14. Dave Sappelt 4th/5th OF

15. Trey McNutt mid/back rotation or back end pen

 

and maybe

16. Josh Vitters 3B/OF

17. Junior Lake SS/3B/bench

18. Adrian Cardenas 2B/3B/bench

 

as well as various possibilitites for the pen

19. Bowden

20. Batista

[Guest]

In the organization, not the MLB team. 11-15 is the low end here.

 

How? That's saying the next playoff team will be made up almost entirely of the team's own prospects, and almost all of those guys would have been acquired by Hendry/Wilken. Unless they make the playoffs next year the 25 man roster will turnover significantly before then. And it's highly doubtful the organization as it stands will supply another dozen or so 25-man roster players to the next playoff squad.

 

Being conservative:

 

2-3 SP are in the organization(maybe 4 if Garza's extended and/or Shark breaks out)

4-5 RP are in the organization

2-3 bench players are in the organization(maybe more depending on what positions are needed v. organizational depth)

Castro

Rizzo

Jackson

Barney(could be part of the bench too)

 

That gets you 12-15 without being all that optimistic. And more importantly, leaves 40+% of the roster open for turnover/improvement. Unless the assumption is that the next Cub playoff team is 4-5 years down the road, then it's pretty much impossible(if not pointless) to make a guess.

 

I agree with you overall but that seems high to me. WITH Garza and Shark I'd put it at 2-3. I could see one of the rest of the guys we have now being the worst starter on said team.

[biittner77]

Good question

 

Current roster

2 SP

2 RP

Possibly 1 other pitcher

1 of Castillo or Clevenger

Castro

1 other position player

 

Minors

Rizzo

B Jackson

2-3 pitchers

 

12 seems like a reasonable assumption since the Cubs should be able to fill their bench and middle relief with in house options.

[rawaction]

I'm really late on this thread, but I'm agreeing with Jersey here. Not only with the ML team see the results of Theo's stamp on the organization, but that's going to trickle down to the minors. Theo will do whatever he has to do to get the players in here that he thinks can/will win.

 

From when Theo took over the Red Sox in Nov. 2002 to the Sox won the 2004 WS, there were only 10 players remaining from when he took over.

 

Varitek, Manny, Damon, Trot, Pedro, DLowe, Daubach, Embree, Wakefield, and Youkilis (from Minors)

 

Millar, Bellhorn, Reese, Mueller, Kapler, Cabrera, Mientkiewicz, Arroyo, and their entire bullpen other than Embree were brought in from outside.

 

So, if Theo only had 10 players from a really good team that he inherited, I think it's pretty safe to believe he's going to have less than that from a really bad team he inherited. Not to mention, it's likely NOT going to be next year that the Cubs are in the playoffs (2nd season under Theo Sox won it all).

 

 

 

***Note: chose the 2004 Red Sox for comparison because Theo inherited a 93 win team, his "next" playoff team was his 1st year on the job. Getting over the hump and getting to and winning the World Series I think was more relevant given the situation.***

[Little Slide Rooter]

I'm really late on this thread, but I'm agreeing with Jersey here. Not only with the ML team see the results of Theo's stamp on the organization, but that's going to trickle down to the minors. Theo will do whatever he has to do to get the players in here that he thinks can/will win.

 

From when Theo took over the Red Sox in Nov. 2002 to the Sox won the 2004 WS, there were only 10 players remaining from when he took over.

 

Varitek, Manny, Damon, Trot, Pedro, DLowe, Daubach, Embree, Wakefield, and Youkilis (from Minors)

 

Millar, Bellhorn, Reese, Mueller, Kapler, Cabrera, Mientkiewicz, Arroyo, and their entire bullpen other than Embree were brought in from outside.

 

 

Those that he had in place were pretty important pieces, and he filled out his roster seemingly taking a page from Billy Beane. And lets not forget that 2 months after landing the GM job he added David Ortiz for next to nothing, and I doubt that even Theo expected that he'd become what he did, and that's not the type of move that can be easily be replicated.

[rawaction]

I'm really late on this thread, but I'm agreeing with Jersey here. Not only with the ML team see the results of Theo's stamp on the organization, but that's going to trickle down to the minors. Theo will do whatever he has to do to get the players in here that he thinks can/will win.

 

From when Theo took over the Red Sox in Nov. 2002 to the Sox won the 2004 WS, there were only 10 players remaining from when he took over.

 

Varitek, Manny, Damon, Trot, Pedro, DLowe, Daubach, Embree, Wakefield, and Youkilis (from Minors)

 

Millar, Bellhorn, Reese, Mueller, Kapler, Cabrera, Mientkiewicz, Arroyo, and their entire bullpen other than Embree were brought in from outside.

 

 

Those that he had in place were pretty important pieces, and he filled out his roster seemingly taking a page from Billy Beane. And lets not forget that 2 months after landing the GM job he added David Ortiz for next to nothing, and I doubt that even Theo expected that he'd become what he did, and that's not the type of move that can be easily be replicated.

 

I don't understand your point. My point was that Theo overturned most of the roster by his 2nd season for what was already a 90-win team, and that he will surely do the same with a 70-win team. And you point out that he had important pieces in place? That's saying the same thing, basically.

 

The type of moves aren't really up for debate in this thread. The question was straight forward, "how many pieces in place for next playoff team?"