Is Bryan LaHair legit?

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't quite get why "fouling off a lot of pitches" is always equated with "good at-bat."

 

Sometimes it is. Sometimes you just fouled off a bunch of hittable pitches that you should have driven somewhere.

 

The LaHair-Motte at-bat was a mix of both. He missed on some hittable pitches early in the count, but fouled off some good ones later.

I thought most of those were bad pitches to hit and all those fouls were impressive

[KaiserCesar]

I don't quite get why "fouling off a lot of pitches" is always equated with "good at-bat."

 

Sometimes it is. Sometimes you just fouled off a bunch of hittable pitches that you should have driven somewhere.

 

The LaHair-Motte at-bat was a mix of both. He missed on some hittable pitches early in the count, but fouled off some good ones later.

I thought most of those were bad pitches to hit and all those fouls were impressive

 

 

Jack Moore at fangraphs did a post on the at-bat

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lahair-wins-mottes-12-pitch-battle/

 

This isn’t to say the task was easy for LaHair — a look at the strike zone (particularly the wider typical zone for left-handers) shows Motte was doing an excellent job of catching the zone or the outer edges, forcing LaHair to make contact with fireballs just to stay alive. After the first two whiffs, however, LaHair saw enough to time the fastball up and make just enough contact and wait out the eventual fourth ball.

[Rizzo Smash]

LaHair is legit for sure. It's just a shame he's already 29.

[Old Style]

LaHair is legit for sure. It's just a shame he's already 29.

If a guy named Rizzo Smash says it, it must be true.

[Elrhino]

By the end of this week he'll have 150 PAs with the Cubs with a cumulative OPS over 1.000+. Throw in the mashing he was doing at AAA last year before the call up, and that's one heck of a hot streak.

[SABR Gamer]

LOL he is on pace to put up an 8.46 WAR if he plays like this and doesn't miss another game.

 

Not happening.

[Elrhino]

LOL he is on pace to put up an 8.46 WAR if he plays like this and doesn't miss another game.

 

Not happening.

 

 

Nobody is claiming he's going to get a 8.46 WAR, but when we're approaching 150 PAs we're getting a sample size large enough to suggest he can hit on the major league level. Frankly, the weird negativity towards this kind of dirt cheap production is very odd. It's like people have invested so much of their personal ego into predicting his failure that they can't just sit back and enjoy it. Yes, he may be an flukey exception, but exceptions are often undervalued assets.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Nobody is claiming he's going to get a 8.46 WAR, but when we're approaching 150 PAs we're getting a sample size large enough to suggest he can hit on the major league level.

 

35.7% strikeout rate

.600 BABIP

35.7% HR/FB ratio

 

He can't hit at the major league level, but a perfect storm of luck is making his actual production awesome. It's perfectly possible to enjoy that luck and still know that going forward it's not going to continue.

[bukie]

Nobody is claiming he's going to get a 8.46 WAR, but when we're approaching 150 PAs we're getting a sample size large enough to suggest he can hit on the major league level.

 

35.7% strikeout rate

.600 BABIP

35.7% HR/FB ratio

 

He can't hit at the major league level, but a perfect storm of luck is making his actual production awesome. It's perfectly possible to enjoy that luck and still know that going forward it's not going to continue.

He could very well hit at the major league level, just not at the rate he's going now.

[Guest]

Nobody is claiming he's going to get a 8.46 WAR, but when we're approaching 150 PAs we're getting a sample size large enough to suggest he can hit on the major league level.

 

35.7% strikeout rate

.600 BABIP

35.7% HR/FB ratio

 

He can't hit at the major league level, but a perfect storm of luck is making his actual production awesome. It's perfectly possible to enjoy that luck and still know that going forward it's not going to continue.

He could very well hit at the major league level, just not at the rate he's going now.

 

That's the important distinction. If LaHair has remade himself into a .900 OPS guy, then he's obviously a valuable piece. If LaHair is only the lost LaRoche brother without the defensive ability, then he's much less valuable for a couple reasons. The fact that he's bad everywhere defensively, and the fact that he'll be over 30 before you can reasonably be assured of starter-level production. There's nothing wrong with being Matt Stairs or Brian Daubach. But those guys aren't terribly valuable in trade, nor are they worth rearranging a roster to ensure they have a spot.

 

EDIT: It's like Todd Hollandsworth's great year with the Cubs. He had an awesome year, and that was great. But there was little to be gained beyond that good year, and there was risk that turning back into a pumpkin could burn the team in roster construction.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That strikeout rate has me convinced he can't hit at the MLB level at all in the long run.

[rocket]

Never forget, Neifi Perez looked amazing at the end of 2004, and the 1st month of 2005.

[bukie]

That strikeout rate has me convinced he can't hit at the MLB level at all in the long run.

So his bad rates are sustainable, but his good rates aren't?

[Tracer Bullet]

Whoa. Neifi never looked amazing. He may have put up some good numbers but he's always looked freaky.

[SouthSideRyan]

Whoa. Neifi never looked amazing. He may have put up some good numbers but he's always looked freaky.

 

Neifichiro

[SABR Gamer]

That strikeout rate has me convinced he can't hit at the MLB level at all in the long run.

So his bad rates are sustainable, but his good rates aren't?

 

The drop off from his good rates coming down to earth will far outweigh the gain he gets when his K rate comes down too.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That strikeout rate has me convinced he can't hit at the MLB level at all in the long run.

So his bad rates are sustainable, but his good rates aren't?

 

Yes.

 

Some stats stabilize more quickly than others.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/principles/sample-size/

 

It takes contact percentage about 100 PAs to stabilize, and K rates about 150 PAs.

 

Given that LaHair has been monumentally bad through 70 PAs in both of those categories, it's pretty easy to project that he'll still be at least bad when he gets to those thresholds.

[biittner77]

Part of me thinks it would be great if, for once, the Cubs got lucky on someone like Lahair but then this is a lost season anyway so what difference does it really make? Maybe we could keep that lightning bottled kharma for future use.

 

Thankfully, Hendry is gone and we won't have to hear how it would be unfair to Brian Lahair when it comes time for Rizzo to replace him.

Edited May 1, 2012 by biittner77

[weis21]

Part thinks it would be great if, for once, the Cubs got lucky on someone like Lahair but then this is a lost season anyway so what difference does it really make? Maybe we could keep that lightning bottled kharma for future use.

 

Thankfully, Hendry is gone and we won't have to hear how it would be unfair to Brian Lahair when it comes time for Rizzo to replace him.

Lost season or not, it's still more fun to win games than not. And LaHair is helping a ton in that regard right now. Enjoy it while it lasts and if he's still mashing around the ASB, then it's a good problem to have. Then you just figure out if he's more valuable as a bench bat/OF/or trade.

 

Part of me asks the question, "how bad could he really be in LF?". But then the realistic part of me answers, "you probably don't want to know". I should probably go see a shrink about all these voices in my head...

[rocket]

Whoa. Neifi never looked amazing. He may have put up some good numbers but he's always looked freaky.

 

this pic begs to differ

 

http://www.amodominicana.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Neifi_Perez-1.jpg

[weis21]

I want that hat

[Brian]

Long live Ruby Perez

[biittner77]

Long live Ruby Perez

 

Wasn't it spelled Rubby?

[Brian]

yeah I think so

[KaiserCesar]

That strikeout rate has me convinced he can't hit at the MLB level at all in the long run.

So his bad rates are sustainable, but his good rates aren't?

 

The drop off from his good rates coming down to earth will far outweigh the gain he gets when his K rate comes down too.

 

So he won't ops 1.200?

 

If the k rate can get cut down below 30 he can be decent .800 ops bat with something like a .340 obp and .460 slg. When the ball is hit, it's being hit really well by Lahair, just not .600 Babip and 37% hr/fb good. I'm reserving a more definite opinion until we get around that 150 pa mark Kyle mentioned.