Mat Latos to Reds for Alonso and prospects

[NonProfitCow]

Reds were also pretty unlucky last year. Their Pythag was 83-79; they went 79-83. Couple some regression with the Latos trade and the weakening of the Cardinals, Brewers, and (so far) the Cubs, and I'd think the Reds are a solid bet to be an 87+ win club next year.

 

The Reds were no more "unlucky" last year as they were "lucky" in 2010. Cueto overperformed last year, they lost their best bullpen arm, lost a 2 WAR catcher, have a rookie SS, pretty much no LF or 3b, and the 3-5 slots of their rotation are league average at their best. Young does not equal good.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Reds were also pretty unlucky last year. Their Pythag was 83-79; they went 79-83. Couple some regression with the Latos trade and the weakening of the Cardinals, Brewers, and (so far) the Cubs, and I'd think the Reds are a solid bet to be an 87+ win club next year.

 

The Reds were no more "unlucky" last year as they were "lucky" in 2010. Cueto overperformed last year, they lost their best bullpen arm, lost a 2 WAR catcher, have a rookie SS, pretty much no LF or 3b, and the 3-5 slots of their rotation are league average at their best. Young does not equal good.

That's a decent explanation of why their record (both Pythag and actual) is what it is--and not higher--but doesn't mean they won't still regress upward next year. That's like saying, "the Cubs won't be better next year because their rotation last year was weak." That's fascinating, but doesn't tell us anything about whether the rotation under or overperformed, and whether that over or underperformance is likely to continue.

 

Moreover, I'm not saying the Reds will be better because they're "young"; I'm saying they're a decent bet to be better simply because, all things considered, they were the unluckiest team in the division last year. Youth or not, that's not likely to repeat itself absent outside evidence (e.g., Dusty's teams always underperform their run differential; certainly a possibility)...

[TruffleShuffle]

There's speculation that the Padres may now shop Anthony Rizzo. I think he's only 23 but would probably bequite expensive. Would he be a better option than Smoak?

 

He just turned 22 in August.

 

The Padres got really good value in this trade, but they sure have a glut of 1b in the majors/upper minors with alonso, blanks, Guzman and rizzo. I don't think rizzo has played anything but 1b and alonso, blanks and guzman are marginal in lf, which is putting it very generously. If they see alonso as the 1b of the future then I'd imagine 2 of blanks, Guzman and rizzo would be going away soon. Rizzo should have the most value given his age and AAA performance - his terrible big league audition being the main black mark against him.

[pitchcs]

Blanks, etc for Garza, HA!

[Shilzzz]

have always been a big fan of kyle blanks, injuries aside

[davell]

Heyman just said we are interested in Rizzo. Wonder what it'd take to get him? He did struggle bigtime at the major league level, but since he's 22, I doubt that affects his value all that much. I'd trade anyone from the system other than Brett and Baez. Maybe McNutt and Lake for him? Although I wouldn't do anything until we know where we stand with Prince obviously.

[Redfoot]

The Cubs still owe the Padres compensation for Hoyer and McLeod. Maybe they offer Jackson and a low level prospect for Rizzo and call it a day?

[TruffleShuffle]

Heyman just said we are interested in Rizzo. Wonder what it'd take to get him? He did struggle bigtime at the major league level, but since he's 22, I doubt that affects his value all that much. I'd trade anyone from the system other than Brett and Baez. Maybe McNutt and Lake for him? Although I wouldn't do anything until we know where we stand with Prince obviously.

 

This trade went down like 5 minutes ago, how does heyman know we're interested in rizzo? The fact that he's a good prospect and was once in organizations led by the cubs' president and GM? I suspect he's just assuming we're interested without any real knowledge.

[davell]

It's risky, but part of me kind of wants to do something like trading for Rizzo over signing Prince. Because IF he does turn into Ryan Howard, we've got him and Castro cheap for a while and that much MORE money to build an actual superteam. It'd give us the ability to still get 4 impact guys over the next 2 years, while adding one who's cheap as hell, to go along with it. Of course, if he misses, we've missed out on the best power source that's going to be on the market this year or next.

[mookie]

It's risky, but part of me kind of wants to do something like trading for Rizzo over signing Prince. Because IF he does turn into Ryan Howard, we've got him and Castro cheap for a while and that much MORE money to build an actual superteam. It'd give us the ability to still get 4 impact guys over the next 2 years, while adding one who's cheap as hell, to go along with it. Of course, if he misses, we've missed out on the best power source that's going to be on the market this year or next.

 

If Prince can't be had for less than 7 years, then I believe going young with upside would make me all kinds of excited. I believe Theo and Jed will have a nice new framework in place coming into spring training. I just wish I could fast forward because this waiting in the dark is killing me.

[rocket]

wow, i thought edinson volquez's good season was 2 seasons ago in 2010, but it was all the way back in 2008.

 

time flies.

[toonsterwu]

My general thought on the deal:

 

Good deal for both sides, slight edge for Padres. Cost-controlled young pitching with a solid track record in the bigs are always costly. No if and or but's about it, particularly in the modern era, where teams, to some extent, over-value 2nd tier pitching prospects at times (and at other times, value quantity of pitching prospects as much as quality).

 

Latos is good, very good, and considering the 4 cost-controlled years, he was going to net a huge haul. Now, off the top, there are some small medical concerns (I think), and by most accounts, he's a headcase of some level, but that type of talent nets huge returns. An interesting comp, of sorts, to make is to the Garza trade last year. Both guys were talented headcases, and the value they netted in trades is closer than I think is being acknowledged elsewhere (the value of Lee/Archer last year is arguably similar to the value of Grandal/Alonso right now, albeit, for different reasons). Latos having an extra year of cost-control and being younger deserved a better return, and I think the difference in the packages acknowledges that. More times than not, top young pitching gets big returns (one exception, IMO, was the Greinke trade last year, which I thought was a steal for Milwaukee relative to what they gave up, although I am a big, big fan of Odorizzi). This trade is getting compared to the Cahill trade due to both occuring this offseason. My general take is that the Padres got a better overall package, but the A's got the best talent, which is important (in Parker, they get a potential ace ... ), and considering Latos is a better talent than Cahill, I think the trade values are understandable and similar. In general, I don't see why people are blasting the A's (elsehwere) for a weaker return, and I don't see why people are blasting the Reds. Young pitching is costly, and like the Cubs last year, the Reds gave up some potential surplus value.

 

The Padres are another year or two from a serious push, in all likelihood, and this builds the talent base up in the system a bit more. While I think some of the talent in the system is over-hyped, it is a very good system because it has a deep quantity of solid quality guys (just not sure there are enough blue chip prospects, guys with either superbly elite talent, or very high quality talent that is polished, but I'm not as big on some guys as others). Grandal looks to be a key get, a possible replacement as soon as late 2012, but more likely, in 2013. A key component of the deal could be Volquez. FIP, xFIP, SIERA have all been more positive to him the last 2 years than his ERA, and Petco could help enhance that. They simply need, at the minimum, for Volquez to have the mirage of improvement (obviously, actual improvement would be nice), and they likely would have a good mid-season trade asset, which would further enhance how this deal looks in hindsight. Furthermore, Rizzo could be a component to factor in about this deal, as the acquisition of Alonso allows them to potentially shop Rizzo.

 

Reds get an excellent young pitcher, and you can never have enough of those. Now, there's a joke somewhere in here about Dusty and young pitchers, and considering that they traded one headcase for another, there's some obvious pitfalls, but I can't fault them for this gamble. Mesoraco looks real good, and Votto is their franchsie.

 

I imagine Rizzo will get shopped. If I'm Byrnes, I wait for the Fielder market to settle, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs went aggressively after Rizzo to lessen the pressure to be in on Fielder. I like Rizzo enough. I just hope we don't over-pay for him, but I imagine we probably have enough assets to put together a solid enough trade to entice them. Rizzo, off the top, has some swing issues, but the power looks good, and off the top, is a solid defensive first baseman. I'd part with anyone not named Brett Jackson in a deal, provided that it wasn't some crazy package (Rizzo's likely to be a better offensive player than Brett, but Brett's defensive value is enough, IMO, compensate such that I don't think a 1 for 1 deal makes sense for the Cubs).

 

An offseason of Rizzo/Stewart as additions at the corner, plus a veteran stopgap like DeJesus in the OF would be solid. Risky, but solid. Still work to do on the pitching side of the equation, and still waiting to see the outcome of all the rumors on Garza, but I like the direction our off-season could potentially head.

[toonsterwu]

It's risky, but part of me kind of wants to do something like trading for Rizzo over signing Prince. Because IF he does turn into Ryan Howard, we've got him and Castro cheap for a while and that much MORE money to build an actual superteam. It'd give us the ability to still get 4 impact guys over the next 2 years, while adding one who's cheap as hell, to go along with it. Of course, if he misses, we've missed out on the best power source that's going to be on the market this year or next.

 

My only thing is what it would take to get Rizzo. Provided it isn't a crazy package of some sort, I'd be interested, but I wouldn't move Brett 1 for 1 for Rizzo.

[toonsterwu]

have always been a big fan of kyle blanks, injuries aside

 

I like Blanks, but I wonder if his swing is something that can produce consistently at the big league level for a corner player.

[Epsteenie]

Getting Rizzo would make me extremely happy. Peter Gammons said on twitter that Jason McLeod once told him Rizzo had better makeup than anybody he had ever drafted. Considering also that he was drafted when Theo was GM, and was traded to San Diego when Hoyer was GM. I'm sure the Front Office has tremendous interest in him.

[Rob]

I feel like I'm missing something on Rizzo. It's not like he's Eric Hosmer, who has very few holes in his game and sparkling scouting reports. Rizzo needs a lot of work... He's young enough he could certainly figure it out, but the scouting reports I've seen were always kinda "meh" on his power until he started mashing in the PCL. He strikes out too much and runs too slowly to be much more than a .260 hitter (crazy .350+ BABIPs through the minors make his numbers look better than they should've). His walk rate is okay, but it's not particularly exciting either.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have guys like him in the system. But I'm just not sold on him as a guy we should be looking at as our potential opening day 1B.

[Epsteenie]

I feel like I'm missing something on Rizzo. It's not like he's Eric Hosmer, who has very few holes in his game and sparkling scouting reports. Rizzo needs a lot of work... He's young enough he could certainly figure it out, but the scouting reports I've seen were always kinda "meh" on his power until he started mashing in the PCL. He strikes out too much and runs too slowly to be much more than a .260 hitter (crazy .350+ BABIPs through the minors make his numbers look better than they should've). His walk rate is okay, but it's not particularly exciting either.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have guys like him in the system. But I'm just not sold on him as a guy we should be looking at as our potential opening day 1B.

 

You have to keep in mind that he's still only 22 and did miss significant time because of the Hodgkin's Lymphoma.

[Rob]

I feel like I'm missing something on Rizzo. It's not like he's Eric Hosmer, who has very few holes in his game and sparkling scouting reports. Rizzo needs a lot of work... He's young enough he could certainly figure it out, but the scouting reports I've seen were always kinda "meh" on his power until he started mashing in the PCL. He strikes out too much and runs too slowly to be much more than a .260 hitter (crazy .350+ BABIPs through the minors make his numbers look better than they should've). His walk rate is okay, but it's not particularly exciting either.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have guys like him in the system. But I'm just not sold on him as a guy we should be looking at as our potential opening day 1B.

 

You have to keep in mind that he's still only 22 and did miss significant time because of the Hodgkin's Lymphoma.

 

I'm well aware. I'm not saying he's not a nice prospect. He's a bit overrated on account of being a former Red Sox prospect and co-headlining a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but he's a nice prospect. I'm just saying I'm not sold on his ability to step in and produce much in the next couple years. He's a bit raw to be expecting the kind of production we'd be looking for if we want to compete in the short term.

[Epsteenie]

Jim Bowden

Padres have interest in a package deal with the primary trade pieces being Anthony Rizzo and Matt Garza...should be interesting in Cubs view

[davearm2]

Heyman just said we are interested in Rizzo. Wonder what it'd take to get him? He did struggle bigtime at the major league level, but since he's 22, I doubt that affects his value all that much. I'd trade anyone from the system other than Brett and Baez. Maybe McNutt and Lake for him? Although I wouldn't do anything until we know where we stand with Prince obviously.

 

This trade went down like 5 minutes ago, how does heyman know we're interested in rizzo? The fact that he's a good prospect and was once in organizations led by the cubs' president and GM? I suspect he's just assuming we're interested without any real knowledge.

Perhaps Heyman heard the Cubs are interested in Rizzo a month ago. It's not as though the Cubs' interest would be a byproduct of the Padres acquiring some other player.

 

If they like Rizzo today, then they liked him yesterday too, I guess is what I'm trying to say.

[davearm2]

Jim Bowden

Padres have interest in a package deal with the primary trade pieces being Anthony Rizzo and Matt Garza...should be interesting in Cubs view

San Diego would be an odd destination for Garza.

[Epsteenie]

Jim Bowden

Padres have interest in a package deal with the primary trade pieces being Anthony Rizzo and Matt Garza...should be interesting in Cubs view

San Diego would be an odd destination for Garza.

 

I can't wrap my head around all of this. All the connections between San Diego, Boston, and us. What with Hoyer leaving for San Diego, the Gonzalez/Rizzo deal, Epstein coming here, Hoyer coming here, Byrnes taking over there. Not sure if that would make a deal easier or more complicated.

[davearm2]

Jim Bowden

Padres have interest in a package deal with the primary trade pieces being Anthony Rizzo and Matt Garza...should be interesting in Cubs view

San Diego would be an odd destination for Garza.

 

I can't wrap my head around all of this. All the connections between San Diego, Boston, and us. What with Hoyer leaving for San Diego, the Gonzalez/Rizzo deal, Epstein coming here, Hoyer coming here, Byrnes taking over there. Not sure if that would make a deal easier or more complicated.

Definitely easier overall, IMO. Although everyone values the same attributes in the players, I'd say the trust/familiarity element is more impactful.

 

I just don't see a guy like Garza going TO San Diego. They have spent the last decade shipping guys with FA on the horizon out of town.

[Epsteenie]

Jim Bowden

Padres have interest in a package deal with the primary trade pieces being Anthony Rizzo and Matt Garza...should be interesting in Cubs view

San Diego would be an odd destination for Garza.

 

I can't wrap my head around all of this. All the connections between San Diego, Boston, and us. What with Hoyer leaving for San Diego, the Gonzalez/Rizzo deal, Epstein coming here, Hoyer coming here, Byrnes taking over there. Not sure if that would make a deal easier or more complicated.

Definitely easier overall, IMO. Although everyone values the same attributes in the players, I'd say the trust/familiarity element is more impactful.

 

I just don't see a guy like Garza going TO San Diego. They have spent the last decade shipping guys with FA on the horizon out of town.

 

I agree, Garza doesn't make much sense to them. They just traded a 24 year old starter for prospects. Why would they trade prospects for a 28 year old starter. I understand if they want to move Rizzo, but not for Garza. Unless they plan on shipping Garza out for more prospects. But it would take more than Rizzo to get Garza.

[Schwarber Fan]

If we trade Garza for Rizzo we might as well tank the next 3 seasons.